Global Market Comments
February 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUTONOMOUS SELF-DRIVING CARS ARE COMING SOONER THAN YOU THINK),
(TSLA), (GM), (F), (GOOG),
(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),
(PIN), (TTM), (EPI), (INP)
Global Market Comments
February 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUTONOMOUS SELF-DRIVING CARS ARE COMING SOONER THAN YOU THINK),
(TSLA), (GM), (F), (GOOG),
(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),
(PIN), (TTM), (EPI), (INP)
I was somewhat taken aback when I picked up my new Tesla Model S-1 a few weeks ago. Right now, with only 20 miles on the odometer, the car is stupid, said the salesman.
But it has an artificial intelligence program that will start learning as soon as you drive it off the lot. He added, Don't even try the self parking function until you have at least 3,000 miles on the clock?
I was stunned. Self-driving cars are coming sooner than you think. Much sooner.
So, here is where we are with self-driving cars, right now, today. My new S-1 will:
My first read on all of this? The car can drive better than I can, especially at night.
The technology will go mainstream in volume when the Tesla 3 begins mass production in early 2018. The company plans to manufacture 500,000 vehicles a year by late 2020.
The stock market has noticed. Since the November 8th presidential election, Tesla shares have rocketed a staggering 40%. Last year was just a pit stop on its way to $1,000 or much more.
Ostensibly, the reason for this gigantic move has been the flowering love affair between the new president and Tesla founder, Elon Musk, the largest creator of new manufacturing jobs in the US in recent years.
The real reason is much more complex. Tesla's main competitors, General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Chrysler have a substantial portion of their manufacturing in low wage foreign countries, like Mexico and China.
That has placed a big fat bullseye on their backs with the new administration. Current policy is to intimidate, cajole, and threaten these pillars of US industry to move a big part of their production from a $3 an hour labor force to a $30-$50 an hour one.
I've never been much of a stock analyst, but even I can tell you this will be terrible for the profits of GM and Ford . . . and great for Tesla. This explains the recent feeble performance of the big three auto shares and the ballistic move of Tesla. The stock market agrees with me.
So, by now, you are probably asking why I am buying my third $110,000 Tesla in three years. Of course, midlife crisis has to be at the top of the list. After all, I just turned 65. So I bought the fire engine red model to match the color on my new Medicare card.
Free fuel is another reason, as the massive solar array on my roof will power the car indefinitely. A new car also comes with a four-year warranty, meaning that all repairs are on Tesla. There is no maintenance, save for occasional tire rotations.
But the real reason is that I just totaled my last Tesla and needed a quick replacement. The dealer in Bellingham, WA had just what I wanted . . . and in red! It was on a flatbed trailer and at my door in two days.
Did I mention that insurance companies hate me? This time, it wasn't my fault. I swear!
I was parked in Berkeley, CA when a GM Silverado driven by a drunk driver plowed into the side of my car just as I was getting out. I missed getting killed by about six inches. I hope that wasn't my ninth life!
Tesla isn't the only company on the verge of a major breakthrough in self-driving cars. It just so happens to be the leader in quality and volume.
Uber's self-driving vehicles are now plying the streets of Pittsburg (after having been banned in San Francisco). The company is now experimenting with 18-wheeler trucks for cross-country trips.
Ford has announced the production of a fleet of self-driving cars for ride sharing by sometime in 2021. General Motors is planning a similar venture with Lyft.
Alphabet (GOOG) has created an entire division dedicated to the field, with the ultimate goal of becoming a major supplier of technology to third party manufacturers. It also has a ride sharing deal in the works with Chrysler.
The 30,000 foot view of what is going on here is that the major car companies are experimenting with new business models to forestall a secular decline in car ownership expected for the 2020s.
It is even spilling over into the agricultural sector, where self-driving tractors and other farm machinery are the hot new thing.
It is even spilling over into the agricultural sector, where self-driving tractors and other farm machinery are the hot new thing.
And in With the New Wheels
When I first visited Calcutta in 1976, more than 800,000 people were sleeping on the sidewalks.
I was hauled everywhere by a very lean, barefoot rickshaw driver, and drinking the water out of a tap was tantamount to committing suicide.
Aggressive population control measures where underway, and strict quotas were in force. Everyone was taking their grandmother in to get sterilized.
Some 38 years later, and the subcontinent is poised to overtake China's white hot growth rate.
My friends at the International Monetary Fund just put out a report predicting that India will grow by 8.5% this year. While the country's total GDP is only a quarter of China's $6 trillion, its growth could exceed that in the Middle Kingdom as early as 2018.
Many hedge funds believe that India will be the top growing major emerging market for the next 25 years, and are positioning themselves accordingly.
India certainly has a lot of catching up to do. According to the World Bank, its per capita income is $3,275, compared to $6,800 in China and $46,400 in the US. This is with the two populations close in size, at 1.3 billion for China and 1.2 billion for India.
But India has a number of advantages that China lacks. To paraphrase hockey great, Wayne Gretzky, you want to aim not where the puck is, but where it's going to be.
The massive infrastructure projects that have powered much of Chinese growth for the past three decades, such as the Three Gorges Dam, are missing in India. But financing and construction for huge transportation, power generation, water, and pollution control projects are underway.
A large network of private schools is boosting education levels, enabling the country to capitalize on its English language advantage.
When planning the expansion of my own business, I was presented with the choice of hiring a website designer here for $60,000 a year, or in India for $5,000.
That's why booking a ticket on United Airlines or calling technical support at Dell Computer gets you someone in Bangalore.
India is also a huge winner on the demographic front, with one of the lowest ratios of social service demanding retirees in the world.
Even though it has recently been terminated, China's 30-year-old ???one child??? policy is going to drive it into a wall in ten years, when the number of retirees starts to outnumber their children.
There is one more issue out there that few are talking about. The reform of the Chinese electoral process at the People's Congress in 2013 could lead to posturing and political instability, which the markets could find unsettling.
India is the world's largest democracy, and much of its current prosperity can be traced to wide ranging deregulation and modernization than took place 20 years ago.
I have been a big fan of India for a long time, and not just because they constantly help me fix my computers, make my travel reservations, and tell me how to work my new altimeter watch.
In August, I recommended Tata Motors (TTM), and it has gone up in a straight line since, instantly making it one of my top picks of the year. On the next decent dip take a look at the Indian ETF's (INP), (PIN), and (EPI).
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 14 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE UNICORNS ARE OUT OF THE CORRAL),
(CDLX), (SNAP),
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHASING NVIDIA),
(NVDA)
Global Market Comments
February 12, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or SO THAT'S A CORRECTION!)
(THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER IS HIRING!)
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is a global daily investment research and trade mentoring service with 6,000 customers in 135 countries.
We are looking for a highly motivated all-around support person to assist with every aspect of a cutting edge online publishing business. It would be a big plus if you had an interest in stock markets, options trading, and investments.
The prospective candidate will work at home 9:00-5:00 EST as a virtual employee anywhere in the US, although the East Coast is preferred. High-speed broadband and high-level computer literacy are essential. Knowledge of HTML is a plus.
There will be many responsibilities, and the new hire will have to answer customer calls, respond to emails, send out email and text message Trade Alerts, edit and publish original content on our website, set up newsletter mailings, set up, run, record, and transcribe webinars, manage subscriptions and expirations, update the pricing for daily position sheets, and manage Facebook and Twitter accounts.
Reasonable writing, copywriting, and communications skills are expected.
Knowledge of any of the following apps will be helpful. If you don't know them, we'll train you.
Infusionsoft
Mail Chimp
AWeber
GoToMeeting
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Office
PowerPoint
Vimeo
Message Media
Google Analytics
Amazon AWS
IMember 360
Interest parties should send resumes to support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Just put "RESUME" in the subject line.
Compensation will depend on experience.
We look forward to hearing from you.
Global Market Comments
February 9, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 14 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),
(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL),
(VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE)
"Every recession sows the seeds for the next business recovery, and every recovery sows the seeds of the next recession." said hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors.
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