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MHFTR

The Last Chance to Attend the Thursday, June 14, 2018, New York, NY, Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in New York City on Thursday, June 14, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $278.

I'll be arriving at noon and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-12 01:07:022018-06-12 01:07:02The Last Chance to Attend the Thursday, June 14, 2018, New York, NY, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

June 12, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE NEXT INDUSTRY SET FOR DISRUPTION),
(BITCOIN), (DASH), (MONERO), (LITECOIN)

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MHFTR

The Next Industry Set for Disruption

Tech Letter

Time after time.

Headlines leak into the public sensationalizing hackers and ruthless breaches of mass data.

It happens time after time.

To where do all these emails, phone numbers, and credit card numbers wash away?

Do they float off to data heaven?

Enter the dark web.

First, the deep web is part of the Internet that is not indexed by search engines.

You won't be able to populate these sites on a regular Google search or Bing.com (Do people still use this?).

The dark web is a small part of the greater deep web.

The way to access this part of the hidden Internet is to use a VPN (virtual private network) to connect to a specific server that facilitates the access to the dark web.

The last step is to download a specific Linux browser as a graphic interface tool to surf these sites.

In a 2017 report based on 2015 data from the Digital Society, eight countries were found with heavy usage of more than 300 Tor users per 100,000 Internet users.

Tor is the aforementioned Linux browser used to access the dark web. These countries and one territory with elevated Tor activity were in no particular order: Moldova, Monaco, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Seychelles, Cayman Islands, Luxembourg and Andorra.

The common link tying seven of these locations is their reputation as a hub for offshore capital.

Small, island countries have the propensity to attract capital by loosening regulation and becoming international financial centers.

Moldova is the only outlier. The high usage of Tor is certainly due to its close proximity, set adjacent to Ukraine, which is still bogged down in an atrocious war against Russian separatists in the southeast of Ukraine.

No doubt, the average person would rather not know what illicit products and services are flowing through the Moldovan conduit leading to the borders and territories of Ukraine and Russia.

These offshore capital hotbeds are using the dark web for targeted reasons.

The main products sold on the dark web are not for the faint of heart.

Illegal drugs of any ilk, hacking services, adult-rated content, and fraudulent documents is on the a la carte menu.

Effectively, this mysterious marketplace offers incentives for hackers to commit heinous crimes in order to sell on the information they desire.

To maintain anonymity, products are mainly transacted in cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has been the crypto of choice for dark web vendors. However, its exorbitant transaction costs have propelled other cryptocurrencies into the main light, with Litecoin currently being accepted by about 30% of dark web vendors.

Bitcoin is in the process of being undercut by its digital brethren.

The dark web is the economic backbone to the existence of cryptocurrency, and any regulation on the dark web would hammer the price of its main flagship currency bitcoin.

The billions in arms' sales and illicit drugs compromise a meaningful chunk of bitcoin volume, and the ease of use and speed of transaction are important to time-sensitive deals.

Litecoin has grown in popularity - even with its lax security protocols - in Eastern Europe. It could be estimated that Ukraine is a focal point for dark web activity particularly in weapons and other war-related services.

Dash is another cryptocurrency finding favor with cybercriminal inner circles as it is easy to use.

A spike in demand for alternative currencies would hurt the price of Bitcoin that spiked just below the $20,000 threshold in late December 2017, only to reverse back to reality crashing to the $6,700 level.

Bitcoin is ensnared by the speed of processing the transactions.

Cybercriminals cringe because of the sloth-like transactional speeds.

Usually, the processing time is a few hours.

This shift to more exotic digital tender could explain part of the reason of the bitcoin crash.

Bitcoin could turn out to be the victim of its own success.

The overwhelming popularity has alerted enforcement to target bitcoin transactions because of the large volume.

However, it could be game over for bitcoin as alternative currencies offer criminals an added layer of anonymity because law enforcement agencies do not have the expertise or the resources to track every type of cryptocurrency around the world.

As of April 2018, the world played host to 1,565 cryptocurrencies, and the number is growing by the day.

Particularly, Monero has caught fire in Asia where bitcoin volume is highest and is ground zero of the bitcoin movement.

North Korean state-sponsored hacking teams are especially fond of Monero.

Monero does not even crack the top 10 of cryptocurrencies aiding North Korean operations flying under the radar.

No doubt North Koreans have branched out into other undetectable crypto assets that have higher degrees of stealth elements.

Proprietary software created by the North Koreans saw infected code successfully mine Monero on South Korean computers that rerouted the proceeds back to North Korea.

Crypto mining is the process of solving complicated math problems resulting in the creation of new coins.

Developers have praised Monero for being "super anonymous" and is one of the best currencies to avoid capital controls.

Monero has given life to North Korean hackers and its blockchain is intentionally made to be obscure.

It obfuscates the wallet addresses from where people send Monero, rendering it more anonymous.

A Monero transaction only takes 21 minutes to complete, giving cybercriminals a fast way to smash and grab and move onto the next deal.

Japan, hoping to be the unequivocal leader of the fintech and blockchain revolution, officially recognized bitcoin as an official currency in April 2017.

The cryptocurrency tax windfall is predicted to mint the Japanese government coffers by up to $10 billion in the 2017 fiscal year.

If this digital currency revolution has legs, Japan wants to be the leader in the field and has positioned itself to reap the rewards.

And with most businesses in this world, the migration toward technology is forcing anything and everything to become fully or partially digitized.

Currency is no exception.

China has outright banned cryptocurrency on the mainland, but the use case for Chinese citizens is strong.

Each Chinese citizen is allowed to convert a yearly quota of $10,000 into U.S. dollars from Chinese local currency as a way for the government to control the currency price movements.

This is a paltry amount for a country that has seen its elite enriched and a burgeoning middle class that wants to park its assets overseas in safe Western financial systems.

Cryptocurrency proved wildly popular in China by locals circumnavigating capital controls before the ban and proves that many countries rich and poor have a use case for cryptocurrency.

In the future, expect the Asian region to take the lead in cryptocurrencies. The bitcoin crash could get worse as a result of the disruption caused by lesser known cryptocurrencies with better technology and faster transaction speeds.

Bitcoin could be on the verge of going to zero, and its economic pipeline from the dark web could be spread out into thousands of untraceable currencies of which people have never heard.

Let's face it, if law enforcement is setting traps for bitcoin transactions, it is probably better to use one of the other 1,564 currencies at your disposal.

It does not take a genius to figure this out.

As for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, to go that far out on the risk curve with a highly unpredictable and highly volatile digital currency that is based on no fundamentals is not my cup of tea.

There are so many better things to buy right now.

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"It's probably rat poison squared," - said legendary investor Warren Buffett when asked about bitcoin.

 

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MHFTR

June 11, 2018

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
June 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018, PHILADELPHIA, PA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER),
(AAPL), (MU), (TWTR),
(I'M HITTING THE ROAD)

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MHFTR

Last Chance to Attend the Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Philadelphia, PA, at 12:00 noon on Wednesday, June 13, 2018. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I'll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I'll be throwing a few surprises out there, too. Tickets are available for $238.

I'll be arriving at 11:45 AM, and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown private club. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase a ticket, please click here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Philadelphia-story-1-image-e1527889450777.jpg 202 450 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-06-11 01:08:372018-06-11 01:08:37Last Chance to Attend the Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Philadelphia, PA, Global Strategy Luncheon
MHFTR

Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Welcome to the New World Order

Diary, Newsletter, Research

It seems like another day, another analyst downgrade for technology. The latest report came from Japan's Nihon Keizai Shimbun, which reported that Apple has asked parts suppliers throughout Asia to cut back parts shipments for its iPhones by 20%. Apple shares responded by falling by $5 to $190.

Granted, the global cell phone market has been flat for the past two years. What is new is that Apple has been extracting an ever-larger share of the global smart phone profit stream, now at a heady 92%, thanks to more expensive products with better functionality. That's what I'm focusing on.

We saw a similar downgrade for the chip sector days early, which cut $9 off the high beta play there, Micron technology (MU).

The bad news was enough to trigger a long overdue rotation from perennial leaders in technology toward laggard banks, retailers, materials, and consumer discretionary.

Remember, as long as no new net cash is coming into equities beyond share buybacks, the main indexes can't break out to new all-time highs. My 10-month range for the (SPY) lives!

It is normal to hear a rising tide of wailing from Cassandras decrying impending doom as we reach the end of an economic and stock market cycle. At nine years, this one is already the second longest in history. But we have six more years to run to top the market performance from 1949 to 1961.

Personally, I believe the current technology cycle has a minimum of one to two years to go, so there is more than ample time to make money in the sector.

Much media was focused last week on the G7 Meeting in Quebec City Canada, which appears to soon become the G6, ex the United States. Here we see the unfolding of another aspect of Trump's global strategy.

He wants to break up the American led post WWII order, which made us all wealthy and abandon Europe, Japan, and Australia as allies. This is what all the new trade wars against our friends are all about.

Instead, the NEW world order has us allied with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a handful of Gulf sheikdoms. If carried out, it should shrink U.S. GDP growth by 1% to 2% a year, caused the mother of all stock market crashes, and greatly undermine the security of the United States.

My prediction is that it won't last. The market risk is zero for the short term, but enormous for the long term. I am not alone in these predictions.

There was another new world order emerging this week, and that the addition of Twitter (TWTR) this week to the S&P 500, replacing old line chemical company Monsanto (MON). I have to confess that I totally missed the Twitter turnaround, which has rocked from $14 to $45 in a year.

Maybe meeting Twitter employees during my nightly hikes on Grizzly Peak and meeting despairing Twitter employees who went up there to commit suicide had something to do with it. This kind of experience kind of puts one off a stock for life.

As for the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service we are having another blockbuster month. I caught the upside breakout by the lapels and shook it for all it was worth with aggressive long positions in Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Salesforce (CRM), Apple (AAPL), and the Biotechnology Index (IBB).

The result was to take the performance of the Mad Hedge Trade Alert Service to yet another all-time high. Those who signed up at any time in the past 12 months have to be extremely happy.

After one trading day, my June return is +6.24%, my year-to-date return stands at a robust 26.75%, my trailing one-year returns have risen to 62.14%, and my eight-year profit sits at a 303.65% apex.

This coming week will be all about the big Fed decision on interest rates on Wednesday.

On Monday, June 11, no data of note is released.

On Tuesday, June 12, the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting begins. At 8:30 AM EST, the May Consumer Price Index is released, the most important indicator of inflation.

On Wednesday, June 13, at 7:00 AM, the MBA Mortgage Applications come out. At 2:00 PM EST, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. At 2:30 Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference.

Thursday, June 14, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 13,000 last week to 222,000. Also announced are May Retail Sales.

On Friday, June 15 at 9:15 AM EST, we get May Industrial Production. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me, I will be taking off on my 2018 Mad Hedge U.S. Road Show. See you at lunch.

Good Luck and Good Trading.

 

 

 

 

 

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MHFTR

June 11, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HERE ARE SOME GREAT SECOND-TIER CLOUD PLAYS TO SALT AWAY),
(DOCU), (ZUO), (ZS), (MSFT), (AMZN)

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MHFTR

I'm Hitting the Road

Diary, Newsletter

I will be hitting the road this week at part of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Spring U.S. Tour. I'll be making the rounds with the ever-faithful readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, and Mad Day Trader.

After 11 years of posting daily content, I have learned that I need to speak to subscribers on a daily basis in order to continuously improve the quality of the service. Meeting people for lunch and breaking bread is even better.

While I'm traveling, I'll be mailing you some of my favorite deep research and educational pieces as a regular part of your service. I'll return to my regular onslaught of inciteful comment and Trade Alerts on June 18.

Below please find my speaking schedule for this week.

Monday, June 11, Fort Worth, TX

Tuesday, June 12, New Orleans, LA

Wednesday, June 13, Philadelphia, PA

Thursday, June 14, New York, NY

Friday, June 15, Denver, CO

To buy last minute tickets please click here.

I look forward to seeing you there, and thanks for supporting my research.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

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MHFTR

Here are Some Great Second-Tier Cloud Plays to Salt Away

Tech Letter

The year of the cloud has been one of the most successful themes for the Mad Hedge Technology Letter since inception and rightly so.

The heavy hitters are knocking it out of the park with the top gangbuster firms facing no impediment to success.

As these firms crack on, it seems there is not a day that passes by where Amazon (AMZN) or Microsoft (MSFT) do not close up 1% for the day.

If you are feeling nervous and believe the top cloud plays are getting too frothy for your taste, even though they are not, it is time to look at alternative parts of the cloud ecosphere that could tickle your fancy.

The second-tier cloud companies focusing on a particular niche of the market is the perfect place to identify companies that are growing at higher rates than the top cloud companies in terms of revenue expansion.

Amazon, because of its sheer size, will find it harder to double its revenue in the same amount of time as cloud companies with annual revenue of just a few hundred million dollars.

Zscaler (ZS) is a cloud security company that I advised readers to buy on April,16, at $29 and after a blowout quarterly report the stock touched the $42 handle intraday.

This company is a solid buy, especially in light of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and a newfound, broad-based emphasis on Internet security that will usher in a new injection of cloud security spending.

Zscaler CEO Jay Chaudhry delivered a glorious quarterly performance and the only direction this company is going is up.

All told, Zscaler processes in excess of 45 billion Internet requests per day during peak periods.

It detects and blocks more than 100 million daily threats while performing more than 120,000 unique daily security updates.

The end result is far superior security than traditional outlets. That's the whole point.

The cloud security company was able to inspire business to a 49% YOY pace of growth and calculated billings were up 73% YOY to $54.7 million.

The quarter's success didn't stop there with operating margins gaining 9% YOY helping Zscaler go cash free positive for the quarter.

The type of security products it offers is part of an annual $17.7 billion market and rapidly expanding.

Firms are incentivized to adopt these products because reduced cost on bandwidth and lower network equipment costs benefit the bottom line.

A mobile dominant world is fast approaching, and Zscaler has positioned itself perfectly to take advantage of the new pipeline of business coming its way.

The slew of new signed contracts reinforces this trend.

The most prominent deals were with a Fortune 500 medical equipment company that purchased a bundle including a Cloud Firewall, Sandbox and Data Loss Prevention for 40,000 users.

It followed that up with a deal with a European bank that added the business bundle with SSL inspection and data loss prevention (DLP) for more than 70,000 users driven by the business moving to Office 365.

Zscaler kept going strong with another Fortune 500 tech company joining its lineup, integrating the transformation bundle for 20,000 employees and contractors just six months ago,

They were thrilled with the products, leading them to buy an additional 25,000 seats and now have all 45,000 employees served by Zscaler.

A global 500 IT services and products company in Asia went for the entry level professional bundle covering10,000 users in Q2.

It expanded the next quarter with the same bundle for more than 130,000 users domestically.

Forecasted revenue is expected to be in the range of $184 million to $185 million, substantially larger than the $126 million of revenue in 2017.

Once annual revenues start eclipsing the several billion-dollar mark, growth becomes tougher to grind out.

Zscaler is headed by an old hand and understands the market in detail.

The firm will be in a growth sweet spot for the foreseeable future. Subscribers who do not mind taking on the added risk could expect these investments to pay off many times over.

Another niche cloud company Zuora (ZUO) is performing briskly.

I recommended this stock the same day as Zscaler when it was trading at $20.50. The stock is up big, rocketing to $28.50 at the time of this writing.

Zuora is a company focused on software that helps companies manage their subscriptions business, which has been all the rage for tech companies.

The software as a service (SaaS) model has become the de-facto standard to bill for tech services, and Zuora helps automate and execute.

First quarter revenue surged 60% to $51.7 million.

Zuora's retention rate of 110% increased to 112%, demonstrating that existing customers buy premium add-ons and stick around in its ecosystem.

Zuora increased the numbers of clients with an active contract value greater than $100,000 by 6% to 441, resulting in a net add of 26.

Zscaler and Zuora are around the same size and could experience similar bullish price trajectories in the stock going forward.

DocuSign (DOCU), a digital signature software company, is another niche player whose services have been valuable in the business environment.

Instead of scrawling out your name with a quill and ink, clicking to sign makes the process faster than ever.

The stickiness of its services led Forbes to anoint DocuSign as the fourth best cloud company on the Forbes Cloud 100 list in 2017.

Last year saw DocuSign blow past the half a billion-number bringing in revenue of $518 million, up 36% YOY.

The lion's share of its business comes from its subscription business carving out $484 million in 2017, passing the $348 million in 2016.

DocuSign set an IPO price range between $24 to $26 in April 2018, and the stock has more than doubled to $58 today.

Do not fight against the cloud; embrace it like your lovable pet dog. There is no reason to short these stocks because chances are likely you will get badly burned on these ultimate buy on the dip stocks.

However, DocuSign has seldom even dipped, even in the face of a trade war, crushing dip buyers' dreams.

It has gone up in a straight line.

Only once since its late April IPO has there been a pullback of more than $1.50, and that happened in mid-May when the stock went from $45.50 to $43.

Remember, the trend is your friend.

Zscaler's 37% bump to its share prices after the earnings beat is why you want to get into this stock.

The moves up are legendary.

Zuora's earnings beat earned them a not-too-shabby 20% one-day return as well.

No matter how well Amazon does, there is no 37% up move in one day unless it finds the cure for cancer in a single pill form.

As Amazon and Microsoft grow stronger, so does the appetite for these niche cloud services.

The tide will lift all boats and choosing either a dinghy or a luxury yacht will stand you in good stead.

 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote of the Day

"I don't care about revenues," - said Cofounder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba Jack Ma.

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

June 8, 2018 - MDT Alert (APA) (correction)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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