Thank you so much for meeting with us in Portland!
I hope I didn't monopolize your time at the expense of everyone else. But how often does one get a chance to pick the brain of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?
You have such an ability to see the big picture on so many fronts and whittle it down into actionable strategies.
I will confess that at one point I considered dropping your service because I couldn't effectively implement your trades, as we discussed.
But the thought of not getting your daily insights made me realize how often I use what you write when talking with clients, making allocation decisions, and selecting industries in which to invest.
“I don't write about Google except to insult the company.” – Said Co-Founder of Recode Kara Swisher
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When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) The Golden Age of Gridlock Begins, with the Dems taking the House and the Republicans holding the Senate. Now you can turn off your TV and focus on trading for the next two years. Buy stocks on dips, sell bonds on rallies. Click here.
2) Facebook and Google Reap a Windfall from the Election, taking in $3 billion in political advertising, and that’s not counting what the Russians spent. Click here.
3) Health Care Stocks Soar on Election Result, as gridlock means that no effort can succeed to rein in costs. Click here.
4) Technology is Another Big Election Winner. As I have been saying for weeks, throw away the fundamentals and buy whatever has gone down the most, such as Amazon (AMZN). The snap back will be huge. Click here.
5) Housing Sentiment Hits a One-Year Low, down a humongous five points, the second fastest drop in history. Rising interest rates have driven a stake through the heart of this market but it’s no 2008 replay. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(THROWING RED MEAT TO MY BASE)
(RTN), (LMT), (NOC), (HON), (XOM), (CVX), (DVN)
(THE RELIABILITY OF ADOBE)
(ADBE), (GOOGL), (ZEN), (TWLO), (SQ)
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It turned out to be a category two blue wave, not the Category four or five one Democrats had hoped for.
The Democrats picked up 28 seats in the House of Representatives but lost two in the Senate.
The one-liner here is that the most generous corporate tax cuts in US history are frozen in place for two more years. That is good for the economy and good for stocks.
You have to laugh at some of the stories that started filing in on Tuesday. In Brooklyn, NY election, officials called the fire department to break down the door of the polling place because they had the wrong keys. Polls everywhere ran out of ballots, while others suffered voting machine breakdowns.
Not so here in Nevada where everything ran flawlessly. My smiling face was safely stored in the Washoe County voter database and a backup paper ballot was created for good measure. No Russians here! Nevada now has two Democratic Senators for the first time in history.
Fortunately, I am old enough to have taken a civics class in high school which has not been taught in public schools for decades. A year working in the White House Press Corps (during the Reagan era) gives me additional perspective.
It shows. According to a recent survey, only 27% of Americans can identify all three branches of the federal government (executive, legislative, and the judicial).
The responsibility, therefore, falls to me to explain the outcome of yesterday’s midterm election and the trading and investment implications therein.
With the Democrats winning the House of Representatives and the Republicans controlling the Senate, we are about to enter the golden age of gridlock.
It is now impossible for any new law to be passed at the federal level. The only way it could is if they agreed on something, but so far, the two parties have shown little propensity to do so. They might as well be chalk and cheese.
Even if they did jointly pass a bill, it could still be vetoed by president Trump. Can you really see Donald Trump signing a bill sponsored by Nancy Pelosi? Given his preference for disruption, I would say there is a little chance of that happening.
The Democrats now have a crucial power and that is complete control of the purse strings. If Trump wants to spend anything at all, it can only be with Democratic approval.
It is highly unlikely that the Democrats will not approve ANY expansion of the debt ceiling, given the enormous increases in government spending Trump has inspired.
You can certainly expect the growth of defense spending to slow, if not stop completely, so avoid these stocks like the plague, like Raytheon (RTN), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Honeywell (HON).
This perfectly sets up a number of government shutdowns in the coming two years. Each one of these will bring a 10% stock market correction, but probably not much more. This was the case when Republicans shut down the government under President Obama sometime for weeks.
Control of the Senate isn’t really all that important. Once one branch of government is gone, the legislative calendar grinds to a halt. It does retain for the president the right to appoint judges. But that really involves social issues, not market ones, and will have no market impact. I can’t think of any big business issues coming up before the Supreme Court.
You can count on the House to resurrect the investigation of Russian influence in the 2016 election which was put to sleep with no findings by the Republicans nearly a year ago. On the first day in office, the new Democratic majority will subpoena Donald Trump’s tax returns. Long in hiding like the Loch Ness monster and bigfoot, they will finally see the light of day.
An impeachment motion against Trump will almost certainly pass the House but it won’t be anything more than a symbolic gesture. Without a two-thirds vote in the Senate, it will go nowhere. I doubt it will even come up for a vote.
The House can also use the Congressional Review Act to roll back any Trump administration rule it doesn’t like, which is pretty much all of them. Just last week, Trump said he could overturn a constitutional amendment with an executive order.
Expect the courts to get clogged with litigation on everything. Oil companies will be the big victims here. Avoid Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Devon Energy (DVN). Their free pass on environmental regulation is about to end.
And while the tax cuts have been frozen on place, so is the steep upward trajectory of the growth of government debt. Borrowing is expected to top $1.4 trillion next year, levels not seen since the Great Recession. That means the Golden Age of short selling in the bond market, now 2 ½-year-old, has many more years to run. Keep selling the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on rallies and buy the (TBT) on dips.
The figures belie the massive leftwing swing that has taken place in the nation. West Virginia went for Trump by 43 points in 2016 but just reelected a Democratic Senator, Joe Manchin. In Colorado, they elected the first openly gay governor. The Republicans only won the Senate in Arizona because the Green Party split the vote, taking 2.2%.
Where Republicans did win, it was only by razor-thin margins, seeing 2016 leads disappear from double digits to tenths of a percent across the country, as we saw in Florida and Texas. That sets up and interesting 2020 where demographic change alone should be enough to tip the balance leftward. Oh, and we will be in recession by then too.
Fortunately, you will be rewarded for your long suffering during the campaign which saw an unwelcome 46% increase in negative advertising. Markets have delivered an average 8.5% return in every fourth quarter since 1980 and are up 89% of the time. Since WWII, every midterm election has generated an eye-popping 14.5% average return in the following 12 months.
And now for the bad news: the 2020 presidential campaign starts tomorrow, and we won’t know who the Democratic candidate is until TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION!
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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Tech companies have a habit of suddenly coming and going because of the nature of the relentless environment that spits out losers and celebrates winners.
It’s hard-pressed to find software companies that pass the test of time but there is one that is healthily chugging along that most people know quite well.
Adobe (ADBE) was established 35 years ago in co-founder John Warnock's garage.
This legacy software company’s name, Adobe, was named after the Adobe Creek in Los Altos, California, which ran behind Warnock's house.
Adobe cut its teeth in an era when tech CEOs were not larger-than-life cult figures, and all Adobe has done is quietly infiltrating its way into everybody’s devices by way of Adobe Flash Player and its smorgasbord of useful software applications.
Adobe acquired Macromedia in 2005 which was responsible for building Adobe Flash Player.
This Macromedia software has been developed and distributed by Adobe Systems ever since the purchase and its functions involve viewing multimedia contents, executing rich internet applications, and streaming audio and video. Flash Player can run from a web browser as a browser plug-in or on supported mobile devices.
Flash player was its second hit success software program after its Adobe Acrobat and Reader software introduced PDF, the Portable Document Format, which is still ubiquitously used today even after all these years.
Most software companies are relatively new to the scene and like companies I have recently written about such as Zendesk (ZEN) and Twilio (TWLO), they can brag about growing sales of 30% or 40% plus per year.
Adobe isn’t too shabby itself growing sales at over 24% annually – remarkably high for such an ancient tech company.
The company’s strengths are similar to that of Apple (AAPL) – high-quality products and high profitability.
There will be no back-to-back doubling of the stock like some hyper-growth tech stocks because Adobe doesn’t subscribe to the type of growth trail that Square (SQ) has blazed.
What you can expect from Adobe is a slow grind up in share price stoked by its outperforming EPS expansion and acceptable sales growth of mid-20%.
Its annual operating margins have essentially tripled since the beginning of 2015 from around 10% and now boasts an Apple-like 30%.
There are no bones about it – Adobe has high-quality software across its diversified portfolio.
Other Adobe software products universally soaked up are its stable array of graphic design software such as Adobe Photoshop and Adobe Dreamweaver.
Adobe has also ventured into video editing, animation, and visual effects with Adobe Premiere Pro.
Not only that, Adobe has forayed into more conventional types of software such as digital marketing management software and server software.
Simply put, Adobe’s assortment of digital media software products has a religious-like following especially for iOS users.
As you might have guessed correctly, the lion’s share of Adobe’s revenue stream stems from its software as a service (SaaS) segment contributing 80% to the top line.
More narrowly, the digital media segment makes up almost 70% of the subscription-based revenue. This division will expand at least 20% each year boding well for Adobe to maintain its 20% plus sales growth that any legacy software company would sacrifice a right leg to achieve.
It’s digital marketing software products rub up against stifling competition in Alphabet (GOOGL) amongst others and contribute a less robust 30% to overall sales.
I am less bullish on this part of the business because they have it rough competing against one of the Fangs, the path of less resistance clearly sides with its bread and butter of the digital media offerings.
Its subscription-based pricing model was the catalyst for boosting profitability causing the stock to experience massive price gains. The stock has doubled in the past two years which is unheard of for most legacy software companies.
No longer does Adobe need to manufacture the ancient CD of yore physically delivering it to customers, users can briskly download these products directly from the official website, receive constant upgrades over broadband internet, and pay Adobe monthly for their humble services.
In fact, any investors looking for some hot software stocks only need to find companies that recently shifted to a subscription-based pricing model. It’s pretty much a license to print money if the software quality can backup the monthly costs for the user.
I can tell you that Adobe’s software has remained world class, embedded at the heart of most digital devices at home and in the office, and who would have thought that just a little shift to the pricing model would have doubled the stock price?
Well, instead of one-off sales, Adobe can book revenue month after month, and year after year demonstrating the supercharged effect of shifting to a recurring revenue stream model.
Highlighting the pivot to profitability is Adobe’s three-year EPS growth rate of 48% turning this company into a mammoth software company with a $117 billion market cap.
Another positive for Adobe’s future sales are its fertile addressable markets in Europe and Asia.
There is ample room to expand in these geographical regions with Europe already chipping in with almost $2 billion of revenue per year and Asia with another $1 billion.
Future harvests look even more bountiful.
These two regions make up almost 40% of sales and as the Asian middle class is poised to elevate a giant swath of its people to middle class, Adobe will be a handsome beneficiary of this trend as middle-class families tend to pump out more university graduates who migrate to software-based occupations.
Even though Adobe isn’t the sexiest name out there, it certainly is in the category of “safe.”
In no way do I see an eradication of its embedded software spread widely throughout the tech universe.
Its digital media software tools are best-in-show and loyally followed with a long-lasting revenue stream that has room to grow abroad.
Do not expect Adobe to debut any earth-shattering products, but I fully anticipate Adobe to become even more profitable to the point that they might offer a dividend or reallocate capital to shareholders through stock buybacks.
Apple has similar strengths in its business model, albeit on a much grander scale.
I feel that Adobe doesn’t get the credit it deserves because of its steady as it goes drivers that keep motoring higher in an industry that adores groundbreaking products that revolutionize the world.
I would wait for a major sell-off because a double in two years has bid up the stock to expensive levels represented in its premium forward PE multiple of 35.
However, as the conclusion of the mid-term elections offers some certainty to the market, tech stocks could get swept up in a positive rush to round out the year.
Luckily for Mad Hedge Tech readers, this is the golden age for software companies and we are just scratching the surface of the capability software efficiencies can deliver to small and large companies across every bit of the economy.
Another Apple-like similarity is that Adobe is annually voted one of the best places to work according to Fortune, stacked up against companies represented across the full economic spectrum and not just tech.
If you have a kid, tell him to find a job in San Jose, he or she could find worse places to cut a paycheck.
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“You are cruising along, and then technology changes. You have to adapt.” – Said Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Marc Andreessen
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