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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 09:20:402018-12-13 09:20:40December 13, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH APPLE?),
(AAPL), (MSFT), (KO), (AMZN), (CLX), (NFLX),
(WHY YOUR OTHER INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER IS SO DANGEROUS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 06:12:432018-12-13 06:29:15December 13, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What’s the Matter With Apple?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

It was 38 years ago today that Apple (AAPL) went public and has generated a 43,000% return since its $22 IPO price. If you bought one share of Apple way back then for $22 it would be worth a breathtaking $95,000 today.

I waited until the next crash and then bought it at $4, and it sits in one of my “no touch” ultra-long-term retirement portfolios today.

Suddenly, the torture I endured taking Steve Jobs around to visit the New York institutional investors during the early 1980s was worth it.

The great rule of thumb I have learned after 50 years of investment is that if you hold a stock long enough, the dividend will exceed your original capital cost, giving you a 100% a year annual cash flow.

Three months ago, Apple was the Teflon stock of the entire market, the company that could do no wrong, the only “safe” stock that traded. Any selling met a wave of buying from Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet and Apple itself, limiting corrections to a feeble 4%.

What a difference three months make!

Now the shares have become a market pariah, targeted by algorithms and hedge funds alike, and beaten like the proverbial red-headed stepchild. As a result, the shares have plunged an eye-popping 29.61%, vaporizing $311 billion in market capitalization.

Which begs one to ask the question, “What’s the matter with Apple?” How can things go from so right to so wrong?

Just like success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.

The harsh truth is that Apple became too much of a good thing to too many people. Expectations had become excessive and it had become too widely owned by traders with weak hands. In other words, people like me.

I had been cautious of Apple for a while because if its massive China exposure. You don’t want to own a company that relies entirely on Middle Kingdom production during a running trade war. Apple sold an incredible 216 million iPhones in 2017, and all of them are made at the Foxconn factories in southern China.

Apple has become the whipping boy for both sides in the trade conflict. The company has always run the risk of its Foxconn workers arriving at work late someday, or not showing up at all at the prodding of Beijing. Recently, Trump said iPhones imported from China could be subject to the current 10%, soon to be 25% tariff.

The final nail in the coffin came on Monday morning when we learned of a lower Chinese court’s ruling against Apple in a lawsuit from QUALCOMM (QCOM). Never mind that the suit was years old and applied only to the company’s older phones. With the shares in free fall, that is just what investors DIDN’T want to hear.

However, Apple is not dead, it is just resting. Or, call it ripening.

Not only could Apple recover strongly from these abysmal levels, IT COULD DOUBLE IN VALUE.

The core of my argument (no pun intended) is that Apple is in the process of fundamentally evolving its business model. It is rapidly morphing from a one-time sale only hardware company to a recurring subscription services company. And that is where the big money is in the future.

Microsoft (MSFT) is already doing it, so are Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). In fact, everyone is doing it, even the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

In fact, Apple's services revenue could balloon to $100 billion in five years, compared to its estimated total sales this year of $265 billion.

This accomplishes several important things. It moves the company out of a 30% gross margin business to a 70% gross margin. It converts Apple from a highly cyclical to stable earnings growth. Stable earnings growth companies are awarded much higher share price multiples.

Look no further than my next-door neighbor, Clorox (CLX), which trades at a much loftier 23X multiple and Coca-Cola (KO) which can be found at generous 19X multiple. Earnings visibility is worth its weight in gold. This could make Apple’s current 14X multiple a thing of the past.

Of course, we are not going to see a straight line move from one dominant business to another, and the road along the road could be bumpy. We could easily see one more meltdown which takes us to the subterranean $160 handle.

But $10 of downside risk versus $170 of upside? I’ll take that all day long. I bet you will too!

 

 

 

 

Time for a Nibble?

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 06:10:042018-12-13 06:08:30What’s the Matter With Apple?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 13, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW PAYPAL IS DESTROYING LEGACY BANKING)
(MSFT), (TWLO), (ADBE), (PYPL), (CRM), (SQ), (ROKU), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 05:18:592018-12-16 19:37:37December 13, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How PayPal is Destroying Legacy Banking

Tech Letter

Gazing into the future, investors know it’s time to deploy strategies to make money in 2019.

This year has been a bizarre one for technology stocks.

The industry was overwhelmed by a relentless geopolitical circus that had more sway on tech stock’s price action than in any year that I can remember.

Technology stocks have never been more intertwined with politics.

The so-called FANGs have really been taken out behind the woodshed and beaten, and their get-out-of-jail card is no longer free to access with politicians eyeing them as take down targets.

They are no longer invincible even if they still earn bucket loads of money.

A good amount of the public animosity towards the big tech companies has been directed to socially awkward CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and his negligence towards the concept of personal data.

Facebook was once the best company in technology to work, I can tell you now that prospective applicants are scrutinizing Facebook’s actions with a gimlet eye and turning to other opportunities.

Current Facebook employees are putting in feelers out to former colleagues planning optimal exit strategies.

Remember that it’s not my job to always tell you which tech stocks are going up, but also to tell you which tech stocks are going down.

One stock poised to outperform in 2019 is international FinTech company PayPal (PYPL).

The stock has proven to be Teflon-like deflecting the pronounced volatility that has soured the tech sector in the second half of the year.

The pendulum of regulation-flipping will concoct new winners for 2019 and I believe PayPal is one of them.

PayPal is in a dominant market position with a core customer base of 254 million users and growing.

The company is so dominant that it processes almost 30% of all global payments excluding China where foreign companies are barred from operating in the FinTech space.

The quality of the product is demonstrated by a recent note from research firm Nielsen offering data showing that on average, PayPal customers complete transactions 88.7% of the time.

This astoundingly high number for PayPal checkout conversion is about 60% better than “other digital wallets” and 82% better than “all payment types."

PayPal’s home country, United States, is still vastly unmonetized in terms of the breadth of penetration of online and e-commerce payments.

America has failed so far to adopt the amount of FinTech that Chinese consumers have rapidly embraced.

The great news is that late-stage adoption of FinTech services will offer PayPal a path to profits that bodes well for the earnings and its share price in 2019 and beyond.

Investors can expect total payment volumes (TPV) consistently nudging up in the mid-20% range.

The firm helmed by Dan Schulman is just scratching the surface on pricing power.

PayPal has changed its approach of ‘one‐size‐fits‐all’ in merchant contracts to a dynamic pricing model reflecting the value‐add of recently acquired products that are more powerful.

Jetlore, launched in 2014, is a provider of predictive artificial intelligence for retail companies able to comb through the data to help boost sales.

Hyperwallet distributes payments to those that sell online, and its purchase was centered around protecting the company's core business, enabling marketplaces to pay into PayPal accounts.

iZettle, an international mobile point-of-sale (POS) provider, is better known as the Square of Europe and has a large footprint. The relationship in PayPal has sounded alarm bells in Britain for being too dominant.

Simility, an AI-based fraud prevention specialist, round out a comprehensive list of new tools and services to PayPal’s all-star caliber lineup that can offer upgrades to businesses through a hybrid solution.  

This positivity surrounding the sum of the parts will allow the company to build custom solutions for merchants of all sizes.

Augmenting a solid, stable business is a start-up inside of PayPal’s umbrella of assets with enormous growth potential called Venmo making up one of PayPal’s large future bets.

Venmo is a peer-to-peer payment app acquired by PayPal in 2013.

It is a favorite and mainstay of Millennial users who have gravitated towards this FinTech platform.

PayPal is intently focused on monetizing Venmo and the strategy is paying dividends with last quarter seeing 24% of Venmo traffic monetized which is up sequentially from 17% the quarter before.

Part of the increase in profits can be attributed to integrating Uber Eats into the platform, tacking on a charge for instant money transfers linked to bank accounts, and a Venmo debit card rolled out to the masses.

This innovation was not organic and in fact borrowed from FinTech Square, a great company led by Jack Dorsey, but the stock is incredibly volatile scaring off a certain class of investors.

Former CFO of Square Sarah Friar left her post at Square to boldly take on a CEO job at Nextdoor, a social network app, illustrating that an executive management job at Square is a golden credential able to springboard workers to a CEO job in Silicon Valley.

Shares of Square have doubled in 2018 and 2017, and the recent weakness in shares is more of a case that Square went too far over its skis than anything materially wrong with the company as well as a harsh macro climate that stung most of tech.

The price action can sometimes be breathtaking with 7% moves up and down all in a few days.

If you are searching for a slow grinder on the way up, then Microsoft (MSFT) would be a better tech play to plop your money into.

In my eyes, Microsoft is the most durable, all-terrain tech stock that will weather any type of gale-force squall in 2019.  

For me, CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella is the best CEO out there in the tech industry minus Jeff Bezos at Amazon (AMZN).

The Azure Cloud business is ferociously nipping at Amazon’s heels and Nadella has created a subscription-based monster out of legacy components left behind by failure Steve Ballmer who almost sunk Microsoft.

The stock has risen three-fold since Nadella took the reins, and I believe that Microsoft will soon surpass the trillion-dollar market capitalization level and end 2019 as the most valuable tech company.

Microsoft is indestructible because it’s a hybrid mashup of a growth company whose legacy products are also still delivering fused with a top-notch gaming division and a chance at catching the Amazon cloud.

The only company that can compare in terms of potency is Amazon.

Microsoft is not a one-trick pony like Apple, Facebook, Netflix and the way I see it, there are only two top companies in the tech landscape that will leave the last three companies I mentioned in the rear-view mirror.

Echoing Microsoft, PayPal has adopted a similar magical formula with its legacy core growing at 20% yet has growth levers with Venmo layered with targeted add-on companies that will enhance the firm’s offerings.

Moving forward, tech companies that have one or more growth drivers funded by a successful legacy base will become the ultimate tech stocks.

Playing on the same trope, Adobe (ADBE) is another company that has a software-based iron-clad legacy twinge to it and has the potential to spread its wings in 2019.

PayPal, Microsoft, and Adobe do not have the potential to double like Square or Roku next year, but they have minimal China trade war risk if things turn ugly, highly profitable with growing EPS, and are pure software companies whose CEOs put a massive emphasis on software development.

Expect this trio to melt up in 2019, and be prepared to strap on call spreads at advantageous entry points. 

Another pure software service stock I love for 2019 is Twilio (TWLO) who I chronically use when I call an Uber to shuttle me around and take weekend getaways on Airbnb.

I would also lump Salesforce (CRM) into the discussion for stocks to buy in 2019 too.

Notice that all the stocks I favor next year are heavily weighted towards software and not hardware.

Hardware is going out of fashion at warp speed, the China tariffs just exacerbated this trend since most of the hardware supply chains are based in China.

Currently, the Mad Technology Letter has open positions in Microsoft and PayPal and if you are like most people online, you will probably use their service next year and more than a few times.

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 05:16:372018-12-13 05:18:14How PayPal is Destroying Legacy Banking
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“We're really thinking how do we re-imagine PayPal almost as a service - PayPal as a SaaS platform.” – Said CEO of PayPal Dan Schulman

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-13 05:15:432018-12-13 05:15:43December 13, 2018 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for December 12, 2018

Hot Tips

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
December 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) The Market Isn’t Going to Ignore Washington Anymore, as the 500-point swoon yesterday in the wake of the on-camera White House slugfest testified. Yes, elections DO have consequences. Click here.

2) Weekly Jobless Claims Hit a 6-month High, up 10,000 at 234,000. Another leg from the bull case falls away. Click here.

3) The Smart Play Here is Non-China Tech Stocks, which have fallen the most. That way, the Chinese can beat up Apple all they want, and it won’t wipe out your retirement funds. Trade alerts to follow.

4) The British Government is on the Verge of Collapse, and Brexit mail, as a result, keeping the UK in the European Community. It’s all as I excepted as I never expected the Brits to commit economic suicide. Both the pound (FXB) and stocks soar. Click here.

5) India was the Top Destination of Remitted US Earnings, at $80 billion last year, followed by China at $67 billion and the Philippines at $34 billion. That’s a lot of grandmas to support. Click here.  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(STANDBY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTMENT),

(SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO),

(TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA)

(WHY GAMERS ARE TAKING OVER THE WORLD)

(EA), (TTWO), (ATVI), (GME), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-12 11:08:312018-12-12 11:08:31Mad Hedge Hot Tips for December 12, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 12, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-12 09:22:412018-12-12 09:22:41December 12, 2018 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 12, 2018

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY GAMERS ARE TAKING OVER THE WORLD)
(EA), (TTWO), (ATVI), (GME), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-12 01:07:452018-12-11 17:24:45December 12, 2018
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 12, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(STANDBY FOR THE COMING GOLDEN AGE OF INVESTMENT),
(SPY), (INDU), (FXE), (FXY), (UNG), (EEM), (USO),
(TLT), (NSANY), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-12-12 01:07:152018-12-11 18:17:41December 12, 2018
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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