Global Market Comments
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY),
(BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND)
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)

Global Market Comments
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY),
(BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND)
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)

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Yu'e Bao or "leftover treasure" in English has caught the attention of over 400 million Chinese investors.
This money market fund has exponentially grown into a $250 billion fund by the end of 2017, and is now the largest money market fund in the world!
This product isn't offered by Bank of China or another giant state-owned bank or financial enterprise, but Alibaba's (BABA) Ant Financial (gotta love those Chinese names).
Assets under management are up 100% YOY and it now accounts for a quarter of China's money-market mutual fund industry in just one fund.
These inflows coincide with the sudden migration into mobile payments. Common folk are comfortable with investing their life savings in these short-term instruments with a too big to fail, larger than life firm like Alibaba.
Yu'e Bao derives its funds from Alipay users, Alibaba's digital third-party platform, that allows consumers to pay for everything in life from theater tickets to utility bills.
Service is unified on a holistic graphic interface and users can easily divert their cash into this fund with a few screen taps on their app. Yu'e Bao's ROI offer a 7-day annualized yield of 4.02%, down from the introductory annualized rate of 6.9% around the launch in 2013.
Yu'e Bao's short-term yield outmuscles the 1.5% interest rate on one-year Chinese bank deposits and the 3.6% yield on 10-year Chinese government debt.
Weak banking regulation has spawned a mammoth FinTech industry in the Middle Kingdom. Only one yuan (16 cents) is enough to create an account and considerable retail flow has rushed in.
China has catapulted ahead of the rest of the world emerging as the leader of global FinTech (financial technology) innovation. The pace, sophistication, and scale of development of China's FinTech has surpassed the level in any other developed countries.
The country's digital metamorphosis has enhanced e-commerce, payment systems, and connected logistical services. The Chinese discretionary spender for the past decade has been the deepest and most reliable lever of global growth.
Mobile third-party payments in China, 90% cornered by Tencent's Wechat and Alibaba's Alipay, are estimated to reach a lofty $6 trillion in revenue by 2019, more than 50 times that of the US.
These omnipresent payment systems are now deeply embedded into the fabric of Chinese society. Its commonplace to witness homeless people on Shanghai subways waving around a scannable image for Wechat or Alipay money transfers instead of physical cash.
Even in rural farmlands, shabby convenience stores prioritize digital currency and sometimes don't accept paper currency at all. Yes, China is beating the US to a cashless society.
Digitization is changing the competitive balance, and global banks must embrace large-scale disruption caused by big tech platforms.
Banks in China regard these companies as potential collaborators resulting in a net positive long-term infusion of enhanced products and services.
Agreements have been forged between the Bank of China with Tencent, and the China Construction Bank has linked up with Alibaba.
China has incorporated the technical power of AI and machine learning into its Fintech platforms at every opportunity. Robo-advisors are also making inroads, creating a bespoke financial program for the individual.
This trend has so far failed to go viral in America, where individuals still prefer plastic cards or even paper cash. E-commerce clocked in a paltry 9.1% of total US retail sales in the third quarter of 2017.
Even though most of us have our heads buried deep in our smartphone virtual world, Americans are still programmed to whip out debit or credit cards at every opportunity.
Chinese that visit America carp endlessly about America's archaic payment system.
Ultimately, American payment systems are ripe for digital disruption.
The American consumer will ultimately cause severe damage to MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), and American Express who are happy with current status quo.
The lack of innovation in the US Fintech sector is a failure in the otherwise fabulous technological leadership of the US. American smartphones should already be a fertile digital wallet, not just a niche market.
Savvy Jack Dorsey even invented a firm based on this inefficiency, exploiting the lack of proficiency in domestic FinTech with Square (SQ).
American big tech will gradually utilize China's FintTech model and extrapolate it with "American personality". It is much more of a two-way street now than before with cutting edge ideas flowing both ways.
The next leg up after digital wallet penetration of FinTech are money market funds on tech platforms. In effect, the Chinese innovation of this industry has allowed more variations of potential financing for the ambitious Chinese, and the same trends will gradually appear on Yankee shores.
Ironically enough, Amazon's (AMZN) land grab in the field is more prevalent in China, as artificially low financing and juicier scale justify this strategy.
The scaling premium also explains why corporate China's early adopter advantage is so effective because not many countries boast a 1.3-billion-person consumer market.
Soon, Americans will wake up to the reality that American FinTech must advance or foreign firms will rush in.
Mediocrity is not good enough.
iPhones and Android consumers could direct savings into tech money market funds with compounding yield all on a single digital platform.
Tech companies could deploy some of the repatriated cash to invest in some fledgling FinTech expertise to smoothly execute this new endeavor.
Consequently, a successfully created money market fund on a tech platform would enlarge the already substantial cash hoard these firms have. Not only will the large tech get bigger, but the big will get absolutely massive.
The determining factor is financial regulation. Capitol Hill has drawn a large swath of mighty Silicon Valley tech titans to testify because they are stepping on too many toes lately.
A scheme to hijack the digital payments market and dominate the mutual fund industry will cause unyielding push back in Washington. Especially, when the Amazon death star continues pillaging select industries of their choosing and eliminating brick and mortar jobs by the millions.
JP Morgan (JPM), who has the largest institutional money market fund in the country, and retail stalwarts like Blackrock and Vanguard will be sweating profusely too if mega tech starts probing around its turf.
Alibaba is also coming for their bacon too with the failed purchase of payment transfer service, Moneygram International (MGI) temporarily shutting out Jack Ma from a foothold in the American payment system industry. How long will it take before they are allowed in?
The momentum for these financial instruments is robust as FinTech integrates deeper into consumer life. The global cash glut from a decade of cheap financing is causing profit hungry investors to starve for high yield vehicles.
The stability and clean balance sheets of tech giants give them ample chance to successfully execute. So why can't they also become banks? Would you buy an Apple, Amazon, or Google money market fund if they offered a 4-7% annualized yield?
I believe most Americans would.
??
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE FANGS??? PATH TO ONLINE BANKING),
(SQ), (V), (MC), (AXP), (JPM)

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Global Trading Dispatch focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Options Trader, provided by Matt Buckley, will focus primarily on the weekly US equity options expirations, with the goal of making profits at all times. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 28, 2018
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BERKSHIRE HATHWAY ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(ON WARREN BUFFET'S 2017 LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS),
(BRK/A), (AAPL), (IBM), (AXP), (KO),
(WFC), (BAC), (BNSF), (BHE), (WMT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 28, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(RED HAT'S TRIP DOWN THE YELLOW BRICK ROAD WITH LINUX),
(RHT), (ORCL), (MSFT), (CRM), (SAP), (VMW)
I have been reading Warren Buffet's annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) shareholders for 41 years.
During this time, I can't recall reading a single page that did not improve my own trading and investment skills. This years was no different.
Of course, it helps that Warren was a founding subscriber to my own daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
A few years ago he bought a 5% stake in Bank of America (BAC) right at a multi decade bottom. He says he got the idea while reading a report in his bathtub.
What he omits in public is that it was MY Trade Alert to buy (BAC) call options issued the day before that he was reading.
And what a blockbuster year it has been!
Berkshire increased the share value by a stunning 23.0%. It added a gargantuan $65.3 billion in book value last year.
The market capitalization now stands at an impressive $525 billion.
The shares are not for small timers, as a single one now costs $317,840. Warren has never exercised a share split, viewing it as a needless Wall Street ploy to earn excess fees.
This compares to a 1965 per share market value of only $23.80, and is why the media are always going gaga over Warren Buffet.
If you're lazy and don't want to do the math, that works out to a compound annualized return of an eye popping 19.1%.
This is why guessing what Warren is going to do next has become a major cottage industry (Progressive Insurance anyone?).
Buffet is quick to point out that only $36 billion came from operations, the balance of $29 billion came as a gift from the US government in the form of the December package of tax cuts.
It truly shows the extent to which big business benefited from the bill, which is entirely dependent on borrowed funds.
Thanks to the extreme elevation of share prices 2017 was the first time in many years that Berkshire Hathaway did not make a major acquisition. It says a lot that the best investor in history can't find anything to buy in this market.
As a result, Berkshire is sitting on an eye-popping $116 billion in cash and US Treasury bills waiting for an opportunity, like another market crash.
Warren gave some insight to the cost to Berkshire of the three major hurricanes last year, as insurance is a mainstay of the company's strategy.
The tab came to $3 billion out of an industry wide total loss of $100 billion, putting the conglomerate's insurance operations at an operating loss for the first time in a decade. Buffet expects to make it back this year.
If Hurricane Irma had drifted only a few miles to the east, the industry loss would have doubled to a staggering $200 billion, and many insurance companies would have been pushed into bankruptcy.
I always thought that global warming would be terrible for property and casualty companies. It's not. Instead, it's great news.
The important thing about global warming is not that the temperature is getting hotter or colder. It's that the weather moves.
The end result is that those in parts of the world prone to storms, hurricanes, floods, fires, and other natural disaster pay much higher premiums. But the weather then shifts to other parts of the world that has no insurance coverage.
The higher income and fewer claims is a formula for printing money in Buffet's four major property and casualty insurance companies.
Sometime in the early 1970's, a friend of mine said I should take a look at a stock named Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) run by a young stud named Warren Buffet.
I thought, "Why the hell should I invest in a company that makes sheets."
After all, the American textile industry was in the middle of a long trek toward extinction that began in the 1920's and was only briefly interrupted by the hyper prosperity of WWII.
The industry's travails were simply an outcome of ever rising US standards of living, which pushed wages, and therefore costs, up.
It turned out that Warren Buffet made a lot more than sheets. However, he is not a young stud anymore, just an old one, like me.
Since then, Warren's annual letter to investors has been an absolute "must read" for me when it is published every year.
It has been edited for the past half century by my friend, Carol Loomis, who just retired after a 60-year career with Fortune magazine. (I never wrote for them because their freelance rates were lousy).
Witty, insightful, and downright funny, I view it as a cross between a Harvard Business School seminar and a Berkeley antiestablishment demonstration.
You will find me lifting from it my "Quotes of the Day" for the daily newsletter over the next several issues. There are some real zingers.
I was kind of pissed when Warren bought BNSF in 2009 for a blockbuster $44 billion, as it was long my favorite trading vehicles for the sector. Since then, its book value has doubled.
Together with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), BNSF accounts for 33% of Berkshire's total after tax operating earnings.
Typical Warren.
Proving that humility is a crucial ingredient of long-term investment success, Warren devotes an early part of the letter to his fiasco at Dexter Shoe in 1993.
He bought the company for $434 million, which then promptly went bankrupt. Compounding the error, he paid for company not with cash, but with Berkshire Hathaway stock.
Today, that stock is worth in excess of $6 billion, which was paid out at the expense of other Berkshire shareholders.
Buffet opined at length on the Great American Economic Miracle, which he does every year.
Since 1776, America has amassed an unbelievable $90 trillion in wealth. There are 75 million owner occupied homes, 260 million cars, and talent filled universities by the hundreds.
Our unique system of free market capitalism has acted as an economic traffic cop, ably directing capital, brains, and labor to where it can be most efficiently used.
Warren then launched on an eloquent argument in favor of company share buy backs, now a hot topic among investors and in Washington.
Bottom line: Companies should always do it when they can get shares back at a discount to intrinsic or book value. Buffet does the same with Berkshire shares.
Warren clearly loves the insurance industry, which gives him the cash flow to make his many profitable investments.
And here is what I learned this year.
Another of Buffet's favorite companies is Clayton Homes, which accounts for 70% of new American homes priced under $150,000. Most of these are manufactured homes, or mobile homes to you and I.
Surprisingly, the real money in this business is in the subprime loans extended to customers.
What shocked many long time Buffet watchers was his sudden love affair with Apple (AAPL). After shunning the company for decades, he dove in with a major share purchase only in 2016.
In 2017, Warren invested more new capital in Apple (AAPL) than in any other company and it is now his second largest holding after Wells Fargo Bank (WFC).
Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM), and American Express (AXP) account for his next three top holdings.
I believe that Warren has partly been driven into Apple by the lack of other attractive investment alternatives eight years into a bull market.
He also deferred to his great grandkids, who seemed addicted to their Apple devices, indicating unshakable brand loyalty.
Warren ends his letter outlining the many events in store at the upcoming shareholders meeting on May 6 in Omaha, Nebraska, the "cradle of capitalism."
Guests can participate in a newsletter-throwing contest (one of Warren's and my first jobs), and get great deals on insurance (GEICO), and furniture (Nebraska Furniture Mart). Buyers of Brooks running shoes can join a 5k race the next day.
To learn more about the most amazing investor of our generation, and the two before, read "The Snowball" by Alice Schroeder.
As for me, I am way too busy to make it to Omaha. But I really look forward the next letter to shareholders.
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