• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 8, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-08 09:14:512019-08-08 09:14:51August 8, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 8, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 8, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO KNOW IF THE BULL MARKET IS WELL AND TRULY OVER),

(THE TALE OF TWO ECONOMIES),
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-08 01:06:272019-08-07 18:15:55August 8, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Know if the Bull Market is Well and Truly Over

Diary, Newsletter

I have lately been besieged with emails from followers asking if they should sell everything, put all their money into cash, and if the great bull market is well and truly over.

My answer is the same to all. If a full-throated and affirmative “NOT YET”. Things may look scary now, but they could get a lot worse, and eventually, that will take place.

I’ll tell you why. I have a laundry list of issues that could kill the bull once and for all. And while some of them are flashing alarm signals, many aren’t. I’ll go through them one by one.

Inequality

The Trade War – is far and away the biggest risk to the market. If each escalation is met with Chinese retaliation, then both countries will slide into recession. At some point, cooler heads may prevail but that is no sure thing. Having met several men who endured the 1936-38 Long March, I can assure you that the Chinese have a far better ability to sustain pain than we do. And the Chinese don’t have an election next year.

Cyber Terrorism – Imagine that you sat down to turn on your computer one day and nothing happened. The Internet was down, all financial transactions ceased, the power went out, and all food distribution ceased. America’s Internet infrastructure is far more vulnerable than most people realize. That's why I have been recommending cybersecurity stocks for the past decade. Certainly, my own local utility, PG&E (PGE) doesn’t maintain security to a military standard. It should.

Debt Levels in China – It’s easy to forget that perhaps 40% of China’s government-owned financial institutions are de facto bankrupt. They have been accumulating bad loans for decades and hiding them on their balance sheets and essential negative net worths. If one suddenly goes under, it could easily lead to a cascading series of bankruptcies much as we saw in the US during the 2008 financial crisis that spills over to the US and Europe. Back then, we lost Lehman Brothers and Bear Steans, and could have lost everyone if the government hadn’t stepped in.

Debt levels in the US – Passage of the latest spending bill means the US national debt is about to soar from $22 to $24 trillion over the next two years. The markets are ignoring this for now. It won’t forever.

Movement to the Left – Trump has run the most radically right-wing government in American history. Can you believe that we are now in the concentration camp business? The risk is that the electorate responds by installing a radical left-wing government in 2020 in reaction. That would bring a return of 90% personal tax rates, the elimination of long term capital gains treatments,  and other policies with a strong anti-business tilt.

Global Interest Rates at Zero – We seem to be well on our way there. Once at zero, central banks will be powerless to get us out of recessions by cutting rates. Just look at how Japan has done over the past 30 years.

2020 Election – Is going to be loaded with fireworks to be sure. The rancor may get so extreme on both sides that it literally scares people out the market.

Middle East War – War with Iran, which is now threatened daily by the administration, will be an enormous drag of the US economy. Investment shifts from machinery to weapons, which have no impact on productivity.

Trump Blows Up – The president implements a policy that is so deleterious to the US economy that the stock market panics. Some would argue we are already there.

Climate Change Accelerates – That is already happening but is hurting countries closer to the equator than ourselves, like India and Egypt. The US military certainly considers this an existential threat. Increased severe hurricanes, heat caused crop failures, wildfires, and more frequent flooding are already having severe localized effects. Imagine all that getting much worse. And there are severe impacts which we haven’t even thought about yet. The first effect we have already seen? Higher insurance premiums for everyone. Good luck getting new fire insurance in California or flood insurance in Florida.

 

She Doesn’t Live Forever

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/John-riding-bull-story-1-image-5-e1535400316131.jpg 398 350 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-08 01:04:012019-09-06 16:52:15How to Know if the Bull Market is Well and Truly Over
MHFTR

The Tale of Two Economies

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I’m looking at my screens this morning and virtually every stock sold short by the Dairy of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader cratered to new six-month lows.

Call it lucky, call it fortuitous. All I know is that the harder I work the luckier I get.

If you are in the right economy, that of the future, you are having another spectacular year. If you aren’t, you are probably posting horrific losses for 2019. Call it the “Tale of two Economies.”

I suspected that this was setting up over the last couple of weeks. No matter how much bad news and uncertainty dumped on these companies, the shares absolutely refused to go down. Instead, they flat lined just below their 2019 highs. It was a market begging for a selloff.

When the Facebook (FB) hacking scandal hit, investors were ringing their hands about the potential demise of Mark Zuckerberg’s vaunted business model and the shares plunged to $123.

However, while analysts were making these dire productions, I knew that Facebook itself was signing a long-term lease for a brand new 46-story skyscraper in downtown San Francisco just to house its Instagram operations.

Months later, and the company that misused Facebook’s data, Steve Bannon’s Cambridge Analytica, is bankrupt, and (FB) is trading at $185, a new high. Facebook was right, and the Cassandras were wrong.

Amazon was given up for dead during the February melt down as the shares withered from a daily onslaught of presidential attacks threatening antitrust action. Today, the shares are up a mind-blowing 38% above those lows.

And when Apple announced its earnings, the shares tickled $222, putting it squarely back into the ranks of the $1 trillion club ($949 billion at today’s close).

It turns out that technology companies are immune from most of the negative developments that have caused the rest of the stock market to drag. I’ll go through these one at a time.

Falling Interest Rates

Tech companies are sitting gigantic cash mountains, some $245 billion in Apple’s case, which means that as net lenders to the credit markets, they are beneficiaries of the credit markets. This makes tech companies immune from the credit problems that will demolish old economy industries during the next rate spike.

Rising Oil Prices

While tech companies are prodigious consumers of electricity, many power these with massive solar arrays and they sell periodic excess power to local utilities. So as net energy producers, they profit from rising energy prices.

Rising Inflation

Since the output of technology companies is entirely digital, they can handily increase productivity faster than the inflation rate, whatever it is. Traditional old economy companies, like industrials and retailers can’t do this.

Remember that while analogue production grows linearly, digital production grows exponentially, enabling tech companies to handily beat the inflation demon, leaving others behind in the dust.

Share Buybacks

While technology companies account for only 26% of the S&P 500 stock market capitalization, they generate 50% of the profits. Thanks to the massive tax breaks and low tax repatriation of foreign profits enabled by the 2017 tax bill, share buybacks are expected to rocket from $500 billion to $1 trillion this year. Companies repurchasing their own shares have become the sole net buyers of equities in 2019.

And companies with the biggest profits buy back the most stock. This has created a virtuous cycle whereby higher share prices generate more buybacks to create yet higher share prices. Old economy companies with lesser profits are buying back little, if any, of their own shares.

Of course, tech companies are not without their own challenges. For a start, they have each other to worry about. FANGs will simultaneously cooperate with each other in a dozen areas, while fight tooth and nail and sue on a dozen others. It’s like watching Silicon Valley’s own version of HBO’s Game of Thrones.

Also, occasionally, the tech story becomes so obvious to the unwashed masses that it creates severe overbought conditions and temporary peaks, like we saw in January.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FANG-story-3-image-4-e1528149670397.jpg 220 580 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2019-08-08 01:02:082019-09-06 16:51:56The Tale of Two Economies
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 8, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The rule book on how things are done and how they will play out you can just throw away right now,” said Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-08 01:00:352019-08-07 18:30:37August 8, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (WDC) August 7, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

7When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-07 14:03:302019-08-07 14:03:30Trade Alert - (WDC) August 7, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (CRM) August 7, 2019 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-07 13:43:392019-08-07 13:43:39Trade Alert - (CRM) August 7, 2019 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (DIS) August 7, 2019 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-07 13:15:252019-08-07 13:15:25Trade Alert - (DIS) August 7, 2019 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FB) August 7, 2019 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-07 12:52:412019-08-07 12:52:41Trade Alert - (FB) August 7, 2019 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (IWM) August 7, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-08-07 10:40:292019-08-07 10:43:31Trade Alert - (IWM) August 7, 2019 - SELL-TAKE PROFITS
Page 13 of 17«‹1112131415›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top