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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 29, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION DEBT?)
($TNX), (TLT), (TBT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-29 04:04:522019-11-28 23:17:04November 29, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 28, 2019

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter
November 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE BATTLE FOR YOUR HEART IS ON),
(NOVN), (MDCO), (SNY), (AMGN), (TAK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-28 18:02:322019-11-28 18:03:32November 28, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Battle for Your Heart is On

Biotech Letter

The rumors are confirmed. Novartis AG (NOVN) has no plans of sitting out the lucrative heart treatment race. The Swiss biopharma giant made its presence known via a $9.7 billion takeover of The Medicine Company (MDCO), putting Sanofi SA (SNY), Amgen (AMGN), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) on high alert for some major league rivalry.

This takeover signifies the latest attempt by Novartis to redirect the future of the company, which currently has a market value of $203 billion through a number of takeovers, mergers, and disposals.

Novartis will be paying $85 in cash for every share, marking a 24% premium over The Medicine Co.’s recent closing price. In return, Novartis will gain control of the smaller biotech’s experimental cholesterol-lowering injection Inclisiran. This breakthrough treatment is currently being prepared for US approval by the end of 2019. Meanwhile, the company will mark the first quarter of 2020 with an EU filing for the treatment.

 

The pricey bid puts Novartis at the forefront of a market where at least one drug, high cholesterol treatment Repatha, is projected to give Amgen another blockbuster by 2021. Another similar challenger is Sanofi and Regeneron’s joint cholesterol-lowering drug Praluent. So far, these companies have been pounding away to carve out markets with steep prices.

Unfortunately, payer resistance fueled by the estimated patient population affected has been dragging their sales revenue. To add to that, prices for both medications have been limited to somewhere around $6,000 annually.

This is where Novartis’ partnership with The Medicines Company comes in handy.

To be effective, Inclisiran is only needed to be injected twice yearly to patients. This is a far cry from the 26-injection procedure required by both Amgen’s Repatha and Sanofi and Regeneron’s Praluent. The key to Inclisiran’s potency is a technology involving gene silencing or RNA interference, which basically limits “bad cholesterol” production.

Needless to say, Novartis offers an attractive option to over 58 million patients in the United States alone who cannot keep their “bad cholesterol” at bay given the current standard of care. If it gains approval, the company is looking at annual peak sales of roughly $4 billion, with Inclisiran expected to start contributing to their revenue by 2021.

Apart from that, Inclisiran is anticipated to complement Novartis’ existing combination heart failure drug Entresto, which topped the $1 billion yearly revenue threshold in 2018.

Entresto isn’t the only foray of Novartis in the cardiovascular market. Prior to this blockbuster drug, the company led the sector with high blood pressure medication Diovan, which used to rake in $6 billion annually until 2012 when it lost its patent protection.

Now, Novartis appears to be ensuring that history does not repeat itself. That is, the company has been actively seeking acquisitions in an effort to bolster its drug pipeline and portfolio with promising products and groundbreaking technologies.

While this latest deal with The Medicines Company sounds promising, Novartis remains on guard as it looks for alternatives, especially with the upcoming patent expirations of some of its main moneymakers like eye medication Lucentis, genetic blood disorder drug Exjade, and multiple sclerosis treatment Gilenya.

This deal with The Medicines Co fits hand-in-glove with the type of diversification and development projects that Novartis has been pursuing as of late. These deals include the $8.7 billion AveXis (AVXS) agreement, which allowed Novartis access to a landmark gene therapy for spinal muscular atrophy.

Prior to that, the giant biopharma acquired nuclear medicines business Advanced Accelerator Applications (AAAP) for $3.9 billion in 2017. A $2.1 billion deal with target cancer therapy maker Endocyte (ECYT) followed in 2018. Earlier this year, Novartis completed its $5.3 billion acquisition of dry eye treatment Xiidra from Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK). So far, the Swiss giant has already spent $27.5 billion in its deal spree -- and the company isn’t going to stop anytime soon.

I know I’ve said this already, but keep buying (NOVN) on dips.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/novartis.png 335 672 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-28 18:00:502019-11-28 18:04:24The Battle for Your Heart is On
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 09:25:562019-11-27 09:25:56November 27, 2019 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2019

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE SAD TRUTH ABOUT DIGITAL MARKETING),
(FB), (YELP), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 08:04:362019-11-27 07:59:46November 27, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Sad Truth About Digital Marketing

Tech Letter

Granted that technology companies have been the mule carrying the load for the broader market, beneath it is an ugly underbelly of venomous spirits.

Digital tech companies are frauds.

This could crater the broader market if the worst-case scenarios play out.

What do I mean by labeling them frauds?

Well, first, not all tech companies are charlatans. The ones producing components like semiconductor companies and others creating hardware are not the target of my wrath.

Since content has migrated into an all-out assault on traditional media, there is a dirty little secret that is festering because the new online media isn’t regulated.

The numbers are all a lie.

Much of the analytics and calculus involved with crafting cost to the other side is being entirely gamed by tech companies quoting prices based on fake analytics.

Instagram switched over its algorithm to displaying photos chronologically, to now display posts that engage the most, more specifically, what gets clicked the most.

Consumers have complained about it being significantly harder to gain likes and followers because, for the ones that don’t have many clicks, it’s harder to get those added clicks if your post is relegated down the feed.

The platform has also been a breeding ground for fabricating likes, friends, views, clicks and so on. Companies can be hired per like, resulting in a beefed-up profile built on fantasy.

Ad companies gauge each Instagram profile by the amount of engagement generated and if most of them are fraudulent likes, there will be weak follow-through in sales after ad purchases since a good chunk of the potential audience is a mirage.

Instagram is the preferred social platform of most influencers and Facebook is attempting to merge both assets into one in order to claim to regulators that they can’t be separated.

Much of digital marketing has migrated down the path of growing a large following for the reason to qualify as an effective brand ambassador and siphon off influencer marketing budgets from corporates who desperately want to penetrate a target audience.

In an age of automated robocalls and strict email rules, companies hesitantly confess that the only way to reach their end buyer is through social media channels.

Corporates are wasting billions of dollars because they aren’t getting what they really pay for and are basically being fleeced by tech companies.

And if you think this is mutually exclusive to Facebook (FB) and Instagram, it happens in every tech company that involves data.

Tech companies are monetarily incentivized to flat out lie about their data, partially because the penalties are minimal or absent in many cases.

Marginal tactics to fast-track the process by buying likes should be rooted out of the eco-system.

They are not only hurting the trust users have with the platform, but misrepresenting the brand that associates with a product.

Tech firms ward off anyone and everything from taking a peek at internal data by claiming it is their proprietary IP causing them to effectively police themselves.

That is not even the worst part of it all.

Parent company Facebook is turning a blind eye to something that could crash the company.

Mark Zuckerberg's old classmate Aaron Greenspan published a report complaining that over 50% of Facebook accounts are fake.

Facebook is on record admitting that between 2-3% of accounts are fake, but that number is a dream and artificially low by a country mile.

If it is true that half of Facebook accounts are fake, this would mean that Facebook sits on over 1 billion fake accounts.

Never mind the fake likes or clicks issue, Facebook shareholders could lose most of their worth in this stock if the truth is ever discovered.

Remember, the network effect works on the way down just like it works on the way up as a de-facto force multiplier.

Facebook and many other tech firms are a black box just like the Google (GOOGL) search algorithm.

Yelp (YELP), the online review company, could potentially sub-contract out fake reviews and never disclose how many of them are truly fake, they have no incentive to.

I recently stayed in an Airbnb rental whose active management was sub-contracted to a local property manager.

When I met him, he told me “This apartment was just bought and you are the first guest to stay in this apartment, so if there are any issues, please contact us as soon as possible.”

Wait, hold on, in my head, I am thinking, how did I see 45 great reviews from the apartment’s profile if I am the first guest?

I logged on to reread some reviews and some of the responses were completely inaccurate about the apartment.

It was clear these were made up and paid for and I was, in fact, the first to stay in this apartment like the property manager said.

Expectedly, there was more wrong with the apartment than just the fake reviews.

The television, stove, and hot water didn’t work, the key to the apartment was half broken and I had to perform miracles just to get the front door open.

There is a reckoning coming to technology companies because of the rampant misuse of the technology by nefarious actors monetizing the platform while perverting it.

Companies look the other way because they don’t want a revaluation of their business model which would add costs and, in some cases, bankrupt a company if the problem isn’t fixable.

As we move forward, the problems enlarge.

In a nutshell, this is why everyone hates tech now and its already stomach-churning enough that these firms steal your personal data and sell it to whomever they want.

A harsh reckoning will eventually hit the involved companies, but until then, tech business models are manipulated to the extreme and they continue to print real and fake growth mixed together as one.

One day, that fake growth will vanish and these companies will have to explain why to their shareholders.

In the meantime, just assume all online reviews are fake and enjoy the bull market in tech.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 08:02:232020-05-11 12:20:28The Sad Truth About Digital Marketing
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“This is a huge amount of responsibility and I think we are all coming to terms with this responsibility.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Airbnb Brian Chesky

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/chesky.png 297 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 08:00:372019-11-27 07:59:27November 27, 2019 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 27, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 04:06:102019-11-26 07:03:02November 27, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is USA Inc. a Short?

Diary, Newsletter, Research

What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing billions of dollars a year and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?

Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me from your Facebook account, and unfollow me on Twitter.

Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did a few years ago, technology guru Mary Meeker.

Now a partner at venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.

The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.

The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” began, GDP rose by 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leapt by 11.1 times.

If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.

Of course, the biggest problem is with health care spending, which will see no solution until health care costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life spans, and infant mortality.

Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient’s final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.

Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70 and means testing recipients.

The solutions to our other problems are simple but require political suicide for those making the case.

For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage deductions, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses, and raise $1 trillion a year. That would more than wipe out the current budget deficit in one fell swoop.

Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the sixties, Google, Yahoo, eBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing today. Tech generates about 50% of all the profits in the US today.

Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and is still run by the government and has been another great wellspring of profits. I got to use it during the 1980s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret. The Air Force base that ran it was called “Sob Story.”

There are a few gaping holes in Mary’s “thought experiment.” I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America’s gold reserves, the world’s largest at 8,965 tons worth $576 billion, at only $34 an ounce, versus an actual current market price of $1,288.

Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $10 billion each in today’s dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.

Mary expounds at length on her analysis which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.

 

Worth More Than a Dollar?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/naval-fleet.png 387 516 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 04:04:272019-11-26 07:00:55Is USA Inc. a Short?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there.

I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner. I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn.

I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned advice, and disappear after they take your money. I want to have the independent skills needed to manage my own wealth, as I grow old.

I don’t expect that to happen overnight or without advice, but I am hoping that your newsletter is something above par not just in appearance, but in results.

Time will tell.

Thank you again for returning my emails. That says a lot.

Best,
Ryan
Hammond, New York

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/John-Thomas-3-e1437059765773.jpg 400 299 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-11-27 04:02:222019-11-26 07:01:16Testimonial
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