Global Market Comments
March 6, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WILL UNICORNS KILL THE BULL MARKET?),
(TSLA), (NFLX), (DB), (DOCU), (EB), (SVMK), (ZUO), (SQ),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (TLT)
Global Market Comments
March 6, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WILL UNICORNS KILL THE BULL MARKET?),
(TSLA), (NFLX), (DB), (DOCU), (EB), (SVMK), (ZUO), (SQ),
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (TLT)
With stock market volatility greatly elevated and trading volumes through the roof, there is a heightened probability that your short options position gets called away.
I have already gotten calls from holders of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) March 2019 $124-$126 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread who have seen their short March $124 puts called away.
If it does, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position. You just won the lottery, literally.
Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money call option spread, it contains two elements: a long call and a short call. The short called can get assigned, or called away at any time.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it.
What your broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your put spread position at the maximum profit point seven days before the March 15 expiration date.
All you have to do was call your broker and instruct him to exercise your long position in your March $126 to close out your short position in the March $124.
Puts are a right to sell shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
Sounds like a good trade to me.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations.
A call owner may need to sell a long stock position right at the close, and exercising his long March 15 puts is the only way to execute it.
Ordinary shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the stock market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, calls even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.
This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 5, 2019
Fiat Lux
The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)
1) China Cuts Growth Forecast, from 6.5% to 6.0% GDP growth for 2019. The trade war with the US and the stimulus haven’t kicked in yet. The last time they did this, the market fell 1,000 points. Buy (FXI) on the dip. Click here.
2) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Pops in February from 57.2 estimated to 59.7. Another rare positive data point for the economy. Services are still alive while manufacturing is dying. Buy tech, sell industrials. Click here.
3) New Homes Sales Bounce in December, up only 3.7% to an annual 621,000 rate after a horrific November. If you can’t sell a home with rates this low, you never will. Avoid homebuilders. Click here.
4) Trump Starts New Trade War Against India, eliminating $5.7 billion in import exemptions. You’re going to have to start paying more for those cheap clothes. Click here.
5) The US Dollar is Driving All Trades Right Now, and has been rising. Buy tech, avoid commodities for at least a few days. But without rising rates, it’s only a short term play. Click here.
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(AAPL), (INTC), (ORCL), (CAT), (IBM),
(TESTIMONIAL)
(MEET THE PREMIER DINOSAUR OF OUR TIME),
(HPQ), (LNVGY), (DVMT), (AAPL)
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to the six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
March 5, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(AAPL), (INTC), (ORCL), (CAT), (IBM),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Corporate earnings are up big! Great!
Buy!
No, wait!
The economy is going down the toilet!
Sell!
Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell!
Help!
Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar.
According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits account for only a small part of the economy.
Using the income method of calculating GDP, corporate profits account for only 15% of the reported GDP figure. The remaining components are doing poorly or are too small to have much of an impact.
Wages and salaries are in a three-decade-long decline. Interest and investment income are falling because of the ultra-low level of interest rates. Farm incomes are at a decade low, thanks to the China trade war, but are a tiny proportion of the total, and agricultural prices have been in a seven-year bear market.
Income from non-farm unincorporated business, mostly small business, is unimpressive.
It gets more complicated than that.
A disproportionate share of corporate profits is being earned overseas.
So, multinationals with a big foreign presence, like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Caterpillar (CAT), and IBM (IBM), have the most rapidly growing profits and pay the least amount in taxes.
They really get to have their cake and eat it too. Many of their business activities are contributing to foreign GDPs, like China’s, far more than they are here.
Those with large domestic businesses, like retailers, earn less but pay more in tax as they lack the offshore entities in which to park them.
The message here is to not put all your faith in the headlines but to look at the numbers behind the numbers.
Caveat emptor. Buyer beware.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 5, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE PREMIER DINOSAUR OF OUR TIME),
(HPQ), (LNVGY), (DVMT), (AAPL)
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