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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

AbbVie’s Big Coronavirus Play

Biotech Letter

Two major issues are in the root of the panic caused by every new infectious disease.

The first is because of the uncontrollable spread of the virus, affecting thousands of people in a short span of time. This consequently pushes the public to question the capacity of their government to provide the proper healthcare to every patient, causing further confusion, alarm, and eventually, economic upheaval.

The second is the overpowering uncertainty that looms over not only the people directly affected by the disease but also the rest of the world as we feel like sitting ducks, wondering who the virus will infect next.

Both effects have become apparent with the news of a new coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, which originated in Wuhan, China.

The public’s reaction has come so close to mass hysteria, especially since the virus has already taken over 400 lives and infected more than 20,000 people worldwide.

The speed by which the disease is spreading is also alarming. The 2019-nCoV getting transmitted from one person to another almost as fast as the highly transmissible flu, which was not the case for its slower-moving cousins Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

In response to this alarming situation, the Chinese government along with the medical community has turned to unconventional means to find a cure — and giant biotechnology company AbbVie (ABBV) is at the forefront of these efforts today.

One measure taken by the health experts is using AbbVie’s off-label HIV drug, called Kaletra (aka Aluvia), to treat 2019-nCoV patients.

Kaletra has two components valuable in battling the coronavirus: lopinavir and ritonavir. Both have the capacity to block HIV viral replication.

The twice-a-day Kaletra regimen comprises taking the HIV drug and undergoing infusions of interferon, a protein that triggers the immune system.

Although the AbbVie drug has yet to be officially declared as an approved cure for the 2019-nCoV, more and more health experts in China are already using it.

The belief on this treatment’s efficacy stemmed from the statement of the head at Peking University First Hospital, who shared that he contracted 2019-nCoV but cured himself by taking Kaletra.

This Chinese doctor is currently part of the national team of experts sent by the Chinese government to tend to those in Wuhan. Aside from him, Shanghai authorities disclosed that they have already adopted the HIV treatment in handling their own patients.

However, this isn’t the first time that Kaletra was deployed as a treatment against a coronavirus.

In 2004, Kaletra was used to cure the patients of SARS-CoV. This is promising since SARS, which is also caused by a coronavirus, bears a close resemblance to the 2019-nCoV. Experts tested the drug to help treat MERS patients as well.

A roadblock for the Kaletra cure is the scarcity of the drug in China.

A lot of health professionals disclosed that they have been struggling to get their hands on the AbbVie off-patent product. In response, AbbVie donated approximately $1.5 million worth of Kaletra to help contain the 2019-nCoV.

Other biotechnology behemoths have followed AbbVie’s lead of donating funds to help with the research in China. The list includes Roche Holding (RHHBY) and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Meanwhile, this piece of promising news is not lost in the market. In fact, AbbVie shares pushed higher the moment Kaletra’s efficacy against the 2019-nCoV was revealed.

Apart from that, this development has reminded investors of AbbVie’s promising growth lately.

Unfortunately, most of the company’s growth came from acquisitions — a path where AbbVie has an abysmal track record. More often than not, investors fear that the company overpays in deals that fail to reap the promised rewards.

Case in point: AbbVie’s hefty $63 billion acquisition of Botox maker Allergan, which is due to be finalized early 2020.

In moving to acquire a company that only has one consistent blockbuster product, experts believe that AbbVie might have pulled the trigger too soon without considering other options.

While this high-profile agreement has been such a hot topic in the investing community, I think it’s a good move towards diversifying AbbVie’s sales and injecting additional growth.

Remember, AbbVie is in desperate need for a new outlet in light of the dwindling Humira sales. Adding a high-selling and established industry leader like Botox to the mix would make AbbVie more diversified than ever, making it safer.

More importantly, AbbVie ensured that the $63 billion acquisition doesn’t run the company to the ground — and its precautionary measures showed.

The company has been consistent in its net income, reporting over $5 billion annually in the past three years. It also raked in $12.8 billion in free cash flow in 2018, proving that AbbVie is well-positioned to acquire more companies and be more creative in looking for growth targets.

Hence, I view this biotechnology stock as an underrated buy that would appeal to bargain hunters willing to hang onto it for the years to come.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 09:34:422020-02-04 09:53:53AbbVie’s Big Coronavirus Play
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 4, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 09:29:052020-02-04 09:29:05February 4, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 4, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 4, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-04 04:04:512020-02-03 17:30:41February 4, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020 - MDT Alert (NET)

MDT Alert

I suggested a short term debit spread on NET and with the way the market has been trading, I want to close this position quickly.

Because I did not suggest a lot of time when I suggested the position, I feel it is better to close the trade out and take a small loss.

Here is how to close the trade.

Sell to Close the February $17.50 call for $1.20

Buy to Close the February $20.00 call for $0.55

The net loss will be a nominal $30 overall, if you traded the suggested 6 lot.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 14:51:282020-02-03 14:51:28February 3, 2020 - MDT Alert (NET)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020 - MDT Alert (NTAP)

MDT Alert

Today, I would like to make a suggestion on a stock that, like a lot of stocks recently, is oversold. That stock is NetApp Inc (NTAP).

NTAP is trading right at the extreme lower band on its 60 minute chart which is $54.32.

As I write this, it is trading around $54.47 or just above this level. 

NTAP does report the 12th, after the close.

The suggestion will be an unequal straddle with a bullish bias.
 
The idea will be buying 2 calls for every 1 put.

This trade benefits if the stock bounces ahead of earnings.  And an additional benefit could be IV expansion as it trades closer to the earnings date.

We will give the trade a few days to see if it does move and if it doesn't, I will close this quickly.

Buy to Open (2) February 14th - $54.50 calls @ $2.07. The 2 calls will cost $4.14

Buy to Open (1) February 14th - $54.50 put @ $2.06

Based on the nominal portfolio, limit the trade to a 2 lot or a total of $1,240.  This is a 1.2% risk based on the nominal portfolio.

The end result if you trade the suggested position size, is that you will own (4) February 14th - $54.40 calls and (2) February 14th - $54.50 puts.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 13:23:392020-02-03 13:23:39February 3, 2020 - MDT Alert (NTAP)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 3, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(CAN’T HOLD DOWN AMAZON)
(AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 10:04:062020-02-03 10:09:02February 3, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Can't Hold Down Amazon

Tech Letter

The recent Chinese pandemic over the coronavirus is overshadowing a sensational start to tech earnings.  

The big have only gotten bigger!

Apple, Microsoft, and now Amazon and Founder Jeff Bezos have clearly tweaked the business into a well-oiled machine. 

I won’t lie – expectations were a little shaky going into the earnings’ report because of expense worries on turning the 2-day free shipping for Amazon Prime members into a 1-day affair.

The narrative was whether Amazon could deliver enhancements that could overcome the high cost of making Amazon Prime better.

It’s not cheap to make the logistical improvements in the warehouses and transportation functions.

A lot of money has been poured into air cargo transport efficiency and last-mile developments as well.

Profitability was supposed to bear the brunt of the expense surge, but just take a peek at EPS performance of $6.47 per share vs. expectations of $4.03 per share, and rejoice in relief that expense worries were overblown.

The only conclusion that I can make is that the spoils from investments into logistics have outweighed the costs of the investments.

In total, revenue expanded 21% to $87.44 billion for the quarter which is a robust growth trajectory for a company as gargantuan as Amazon.

Amazon unleashed the head turner metric this time around too sharing that Amazon already has over 150 million Amazon Prime members.

That is almost the equivalent of half of the U.S. population paying Amazon $119 per year.

The higher logistic costs were deemed necessary to stay in front of the rest and expectedly ballooning costs showed up in the earnings report with shipping expenses up 43% year over year to $12.9 billion.

Other segments of the business have been just as prolific as Kansas City Chief’s quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Streaming and subscriptions pulled in a massive $5.24 billion for the quarter, up 32% from the year-ago period.

Amazon’s cloud business AWS was up 19% to almost $10 billion last quarter.

The 19% represents a significant slowdown from the 35% they grew during the 3rd quarter of last year but still brings in the lion's share of the profits.

Are there any other dark horse growth drivers in Amazon’s arsenal?

Certainly, Amazon’s advertising segment can be pigeonholed as the rising star and generated $4.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, a 41% increase from the year-ago period.

Amazon is also bullish on the Amazon’s “stores,” allowing the company to customize and curate a multipage digital storefront.

Stores are getting a refresh and the company has added features like shoppable images and the ability to schedule updates like new releases or seasonal changes.

Other advertising tools like the ability for brands to create posts, which consumers can view to discover products and brands through a curated feed, will help the company become an advertising juggernaut.

The company launched “Posts” in beta last year which shows that Amazon plans to double down in marketing.

The marketing space serves as a critical area for incremental growth potential and profitability flow-through.

This is because the marketing space is the largest and least penetrated total addressable market, ahead of retail, cloud, and business-to-business segments.

Amazon is a sure-fire buy and hold tech company because it simply is the second-best tech company behind Microsoft.

There will also be opportunities to trade this short-term from the long side, but the volatility might turn off some investors.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 10:02:032020-05-11 13:11:55Can't Hold Down Amazon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Our philosophy is that we care about people first.” – Said Seller of User Data Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/mark-zucherberg.png 254 337 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 10:00:372020-02-03 09:14:41February 3, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 09:28:432020-02-03 09:28:43February 3, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 3, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 3, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MEET THE GREEKS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-02-03 04:04:572020-02-03 06:41:32February 3, 2020
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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