While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
March 11, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS, OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(AAPL), (BA), (UAL), (CCL), (WYNN), (FB)
I almost got to take a shower today.
However, whenever I got close to the bathroom, I'd get an urgent call from a concierge member, Marine buddy, Morgan Stanley retiree, fraternity brother from 50 years ago, or one of my kids asking me which stocks to buy at the bottom.
It’s been that kind of market.
I refer them to the research piece I sent out last week, “Ten Long Term LEAPs to Buy at the Bottom” for a quick and dirty way to get into the best names in a hurry (click here for the link).
I have been doing the same, and as a result, I have one of the largest trading portfolios in recent memory. When the Volatility Index is above $50, it is almost impossible to lose money as long as you remember to buy the 1,000 dips and sell the 1,000 point rallies.
In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.
If that happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position. Whenever you have sold short an option, you run an assignment risk.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker saying that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the Microsoft (MSFT) December 2019 $134-$137 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 days before the December 20 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.50 last week is now with $5.00!
All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (MSFT) December 134 calls to close out your short position in the (MSFT) December $137 calls.
This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, the same amount of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one options contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
To say it another way, you bought the (MSFT) at $134 and sold it at $137, paid $2.60 for the right to do so, so your profit is 40 cents, or ($0.40 X 100 shares X 38 contracts) = $1,520. Not bad for an 18-day limited risk play.
Sounds like a good trade to me.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to buy a long (MSFT) position after the close, and exercising his long December $134 call is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then most additional margin to cover the risk.
Either that, or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a ton of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.
There may not even be and evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
Calling All Options
“At some point, all the money that has been parked in bonds and money market funds over the last five years will go into equities,” said Julian Emanuel of investment bank BTIG.
ET, of course, sold off with the crash of oil yesterday.
It is trading under its lower band on its daily & 60 minute chart.
This tells me how oversold the stock is.
To me, ET is not a true energy play, even though it is in the energy field. It provides the pipe lines to carry the oil. And it does carry a decent yield.
The call options have become quite expensive and as such, I am going to suggest another trade on ET.
Buy ET at the market, which is $7.50.
Then sell to open the March 20th - $8 call for $0.60.
These calls expire in a week and one half.
Limit the stock buy in to 500 shares or 3.7% of the nominal portfolio.
If these calls are executed next Friday, the return will be 14.7%.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NEW TECHNOLOGY TO EDIT GENES HITS THE MARKET)
(MRNA), (GILD)
The biotechnology market is estimated to surge over $775 billion by 2024 as experts in this sector continue to discover cutting-edge treatments for thousands of previously incurable diseases.
While gene-editing therapies have been dominating the rare disease field in the past years, Moderna Inc (MRNA) has been working on a novel but supposedly more effective solution.
Instead of altering the genes via the DNA of a person to treat the sickness, the company strengthens the messenger RNA (mRNA) to help the body fight the disease on its own.
Here’s Moderna’s take on why its treatments are more sustainable and effective in the long run.
Unlike DNA-based therapies, which target the nucleus of the cell, Moderna is developing mRNA treatments. According to the company, their method would be easier to implement compared to the more commonly used technique.
This is because the DNA is stored solely in the cell’s nucleus, which makes it difficult to access. In comparison, mRNA can be found throughout the cell, making it more readily available.
Moderna uses the same logic in developing its vaccine for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) --- and they might have just hit the nail in the head here.
Since the coronavirus outbreak, Moderna has been at the forefront of the crisis. Using its patented technology, the company recently announced that it has created a new vaccine against this potential pandemic.
In fact, the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine called mRNA-1273 was already shipped to the National Institutes of Health for testing.
The first trial for this vaccine, which will include 20 to 25 volunteers, will be completed by April. Initial clinical data is estimated to be released by July or August.
Given the complexity of the situation and the limited information we have about the coronavirus, Moderna’s response was actually quite impressive.
After learning about the genetic composition of the coronavirus, the company was able to develop a potential vaccine in less than two months.
To put things in a better perspective, keep in mind that there are only two companies that have something to show for since this outbreak became public: Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Moderna.
However, Moderna’s output is different from Gilead’s treatment.
For one, Gilead’s approach is to build upon or reuse an existing antiviral drug Remdesivir to develop a coronavirus cure.
In comparison, Moderna created a new vaccine from scratch and still managed to get ahead of the pack.
Both companies stand to win though since the two treatments won’t be directly competing against each other.
Gilead’s drug aims to cure people who are already suffering from the coronavirus disease while Moderna offers a vaccine to avoid infection.
Aside from working on the coronavirus disease solution, Moderna has recently announced another promising mRNA-based vaccine called mRNA-1647.
This vaccine seeks to offer treatment for cytomegalovirus (CMV), which is a virus related to those that cause infectious mono and chickenpox.
While this disease is most dangerous to newborn babies because it could cause birth defects when transmitted through the pregnant mother, this is a common virus that can affect almost everybody.
In the US alone, approximately 50% to 80% of adults have been infected by the time they reach 40. Once you get infected by CMV, the virus stays in your body for life.
According to Moderna, the results of the Phase 2 trial for the CMV vaccine should be out by the third quarter of 2020. If all goes well, the company will enter the next phase by early 2021.
Although Moderna’s true value will only emerge when the company actually brings a product to market, it’s 32.5% jump in the first two months of this year is still noteworthy.
The fact that it is on track to deliver potentially lifesaving drugs in the form of the coronavirus and CMV vaccines also makes it a first-rate hedge against this current anxious and fearful market.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
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