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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 31, 2020 - MDT Alert (CLVS)

MDT Alert

CLVS is just not performing as I would have anticipated. The stock is in an uptrend on its daily chart but continues to slowly drift lower.

And with call premium being so low, it does not make sense to continue with that strategy.

As a result, I am going to suggest you close the position.

Sell CLVS at the market, which is $5.92.

If you factor in the three rounds of calls sold against the position, the cash loss, if you traded the suggested 500 share lot is $295.

The loss is 8% if you add in the call premium collected.

I am going to suggest you sell the front week $7.50 call on the stock.

Here is the trade:

Sell to Open (1) June 26th - $7.50 Call for every 100 shares you own.

You should be able to sell them for $.25 per every option.

This will bring the call premium collected on this position to 50 cents per share.

If the calls are assigned this Friday, the return will be 9.4% for less than a month.

Of course, this alert only applies to you if you own shares in CLVS.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 12:08:162020-07-31 12:46:51July 31, 2020 - MDT Alert (CLVS)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 31, 2020

Tech Letter



Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 31, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BIG TECH IS UNSTOPPABLE)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 10:04:242020-07-31 10:37:56July 31, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Big Tech is Unstoppable

Tech Letter

The big loser at the Congress hearing grilling the top 4 CEOs in big tech was by far and away the U.S. government.

The U.S. government accused big tech of operating as illegal monopolies and big tech’s answer was largely indifference, betting that the government is too disjointed to actually hit them with some venom.

The only member of congress who was on point with her questions was Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who used internal Facebook documents to show data theft artist Mark Zuckerberg suppressing competition when he purchased Instagram in 2012.

Jayapal then cornered Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos into a corner, peppering him with questions about Amazon’s 3rd party data handling.

There has been a long-lasting campaign against Amazon in regard to them using internal data to hijack 3rd party sellers’ products deemed successful by recreating them as in-house products and catapulting their in-house branded products to the top of the Amazon search results.

The success of Congress stopped at Jayapal, as the rest of the motley crew appeared so out of touch with what real tech issues exist that it felt they were unfit to ask questions.

Playing into their inefficient display was the fact that they chose a time delegated for antitrust issues to complain about anti-conservative bias in social media, which is a separate issue entirely.

These arguments were armed with zero data to back up the claims, and gave the tech leaders an easy way out by just grandstanding about the issue. 

The biggest winner was the company that was not invited to the session – Microsoft (MSFT).

They were the only tech company over $1 trillion that wasn’t in attendance, and for good reason.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has been able to position the company as a trust-first cloud enterprise and refuse to traverse into that gray area where conflicting interests exist.

They are living proof that tech companies don’t need to swindle personal data to grow revenue, which is why I keep putting on call spreads in this brilliant company.

Microsoft is in great strategic position to expand their business, and the same cannot be said for Facebook because unlike Microsoft, Facebook produces nothing of meaningful substance.

This was evident as Congress picked on Zuckerberg’s company the most, even catching him in a bold face lie.

The most convenient line of reasoning for these tech companies doing what they do was the “American-first” playbook.

Highlighting China’s rise as tech competitor, fearmongering that China could one day be at the top of the tech pyramid but actually just demonstrating another way of avoiding the real issues.  

Watching this discussion made me realize that these tech companies have reached a level of power that supersedes the government.

Politicians are only invested  in short-term interest and protecting their tenure in government. Bezos, Zuckerberg, Cook, and Pichai can play the long game.  

This is exactly why investors pour capital into these 4 stocks plus Microsoft.

Apple earns over $55 billion in profits annually on $260 billion of revenue.

Amazon makes up 40% of U.S. online sales.

Facebook (FB) has 2.6 billion users which is 34% of the world’s population.

Lastly, 90% of internet searches are done through Google (GOOGL) search.

The real question should be: when will these companies hit the $2 trillion mark?

And even if Congress could conjure up some meaningful regulation against these 4, they certainly have the resources to navigate around it, especially when half of Congress still doesn’t understand what they actually do.

As it stands, these data empires are left to go their merry way and Congress is failing to protect individual user data on an epic scale.

To put the cherry on top, I would argue that the coronavirus has done big tech’s dirty work wiping out many businesses while big tech gets stronger.

I am bullish big tech.

big tech and congress

 

big tech and congress

 

big tech and congress

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 10:02:222020-08-02 17:35:24Big Tech is Unstoppable
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 31, 2020 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“These companies as they exist today have monopoly power. Some need to be broken up, all need to be properly regulated and held accountable.” – Said U.S. Representative David Cicilline

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Cicilline.png 228 308 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 10:00:182020-07-31 10:36:50July 31, 2020 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 31, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 09:29:562020-07-31 09:29:56July 31, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 31, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 31, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-31 09:04:572020-07-31 09:04:02July 31, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 30, 2020 - MDT Alert (CTXS)

MDT Alert

I would like to make a suggestion on a debit spread and the stock is Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS).

CTXS reported on the 23rd with an earnings beat, so we do have to be concerned with an earnings release.

CTXS is trading around $140 as I write this.

My suggestion is to trade the August monthly options that expire on August 21st.

This gives the stock about two weeks to make a move.

Here is how you open the position:

Buy to Open August 21st - $140.00 Call for $4.50

Sell to Open August 21st - $145.00 Call for $2.20

The net debit will be $2.30 per spread.

Based on the tracking portfolio, I suggest you limit the trade to a 5 lot or 1.1% of the portfolio.

The maximum gain on a five lot would be $1,080.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 13:07:202020-07-30 13:07:20July 30, 2020 - MDT Alert (CTXS)
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 30, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 09:38:002020-07-30 09:38:00July 30, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 30, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 30, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ABBVIE'S UNEXPECTED UPSIDES)
(ABBV), (GMAB), (REGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 05:02:272020-07-30 03:42:52July 30, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

AbbVie's Unexpected Upsides

Biotech Letter

After going through what could arguably be described as one of the most promising quarterly stock market performances in the past 10 years, the horrific stock market crash at the beginning of 2020 feels like a distant memory.

With the revival of the financial sector, people now will not stop complaining about exorbitant market valuations.

Despite that, not all stocks are offered at premium prices. There are several companies that remain at relatively bargain prices regardless of the encouraging market revival in the past months.

A stock that falls under this category is AbbVie (ABBV).

In the past three months, AbbVie shares jumped by over 20%. Even so, this biotechnology and healthcare stock remains unreasonably cheap, only trading at roughly 10 times its expected earnings.

Looking at the company’s profile, investors appear to shun AbbVie shares out of fear stemming from the looming US patent exclusivity loss for its highest selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira by 2023.

While the reality is that Humira will soon face biosimilar competition, the sales for AbbVie’s cash cow remain impressive.

In the first quarter of 2020, Humira generated $3.7 billion in revenue in the US alone, showing off a 13.7% climb year-over-year.

However, AbbVie is not twiddling its thumbs, waiting for the Humira patent exclusivity to expire in the next 3 years.

Instead, the Illinois-based company has been busy developing its next blockbuster products.

The frontrunners in AbbVie’s lineup are leukemia and lymphoma drugs Venclexta and Imbruvica.

The two generated a total of approximately $5.5 billion in annual revenues in 2019 – and 2020 is projected to record a strong double-digit growth.

In the first quarter of this year alone, Venclexta and Imbruvica raked in a total of $1.5 billion in global sales or a 32% year-over-year increase.

Still, AbbVie’s oncology franchise has yet to stop growing.

Riding the momentum of its cancer research expansion, AbbVie also recently established a partnership with Denmark’s GenMab (GMAB).

The goal is to come up with 3 anticancer antibodies, which will ultimately be able to attack cancer cells without damaging the normal and healthy ones.

If the programs succeed, AbbVie will pay $3.15 billion. This is on top of the $750 million it already offered upfront to GenMab.

However, the biggest move AbbVie made in an effort to lessen the top-line exposure to Humira is its acquisition of Allergan.

AbbVie is projected to collect over $2 billion in savings annually within 3 years since this $63 billion acquisition.

This will translate to roughly $1 per share, with 2021 earnings per share hitting $11.80 compared to $10.25 estimated in 2020.

More importantly, AbbVie gains access to Allergan’s crown jewel Botox.

While this drug is commonly known as a cosmetic procedure treatment, it can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions.

Just this July, Allergan received FDA approval to expand the use of Botox to cover some pediatric patients including those with cerebral palsy.

Aside from Botox, AbbVie also picked up a couple of exciting products like antipsychotic drug Vraylar.  

On top of the drugs from its Allergan acquisition, AbbVie has been developing new-generation autoimmune treatments.

Two of these products, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, are expected to generate $20 billion in annual sales – a number comparable to Humira’s record.

In fact, Rinvoq is anticipated to transform into an aggressive rival of Regeneron’s (REGN) very own cash cow, atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent.

One advantage of Rinvoq over Dupixent is that AbbVie’s drug comes in the form of a pill while Regeneron’s product is an injection. This easily makes Rinvoq the more convenient option.

Even if Rinvoq fails to take away from Dupixent’s market share, the AbbVie drug can still benefit from the same group. After all, there are at least 10% to 25% of the patient pool who are unresponsive to Regeneron’s product.

That means AbbVie could earn roughly $340 million at a minimum after 2 years of its Rinvoq launch.

On the COVID-19 front, AbbVie attracted attention when its cholesterol drug Tricor was found to be effective in fighting SARS-CoV2.

There’s still no conclusive data, but the optimism was spurred when scientists at the Hebrew University in Israel and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center claimed that Tricor could potentially downgrade the deadly virus into “nothing worse than a common cold.”

Thanks to the promising results, the researchers will advance Tricor into animal studies.

The hope is that the drug can eventually be included in the list of treatments fast-tracked by the FDA both in the US and Israel.

Apart from that, AbbVie’s HIV treatment Kaletra has been used in China as another form of COVID-19 treatment.

Overall, AbbVie is a great pick among income-seeking investors. It offers a high yield, a promising pipeline and approved products, and a low payout ratio.

AbbVie generated $8.6 billion in revenue during the quarter that threatened to push the world into a recession, demonstrating a 10.1% increase from the same period in 2019. In terms of earnings per share, AbbVie recorded $2.02 in the said period compared to the $1.65 last year.

AbbVie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-07-30 05:00:222020-08-02 17:03:23AbbVie's Unexpected Upsides
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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