Peloton (PTON) is a tech company I once hated, but that is now undergoing a renaissance because the pandemic has created a surge in demand for home exercise solutions.
In its most recent earnings report, revenue frothed to 172% to $607.1 million, crushing both the consensus estimate of $580 million and the company's own guidance.
Connected Fitness subscribers more than doubled to 1.09 million, and Digital memberships more than tripled to nearly 320,000.
Peloton quite simply is struggling to keep up with demand, like many other winners in the shelter-at-home tech trade.
Peloton has been pedal to the metal expanding manufacturing capacity at third-party contract manufacturers and its in-house manufacturing operations.
Peloton had acquired Tonic, one of its bike manufacturers, a little less than a year ago as part of a vertical integration pivot.
CEO John Foley also noted that the company had to balance the trade-offs with how it allocated capacity.
Peloton recently introduced a new Tread that's more affordable, but it also needed to ramp unit volume.
Foley commented, "While we had hoped to launch our new Tread more quickly and in greater supply, we had to make some tough decisions regarding supply chain resource allocation due to the surge in demand we've been experiencing for our Bike."
Connected Fitness subscriber growth is starting to become constrained at the back half of the quarter, but that was largely due to ongoing supply constraints as opposed to a lack of demand.
The resurgence in coronavirus cases over the summer contributed to another spike in demand for the products so imagine what a winter spike could mean for the company too.
The flip side is that the surge in virus cases has made it challenging to meaningfully reduce order delivery time frames in the US.
Peloton has materially increased production capacity in recent months and continue to grow manufacturing capabilities, but do not expect a normalized order to delivery windows in the U.S. prior to the end of Q2 fiscal '21.
Peloton's financial performance for the rest of 2020 will center around its ability to ramp production in order to satisfy demand.
Conversely, some of the biggest losers in the economy are gyms, and Peloton is feasting on this opportunity.
It’s becoming clearer that connected fitness has a massive runway for growth, especially with over 180 million people around the globe that—prior to the health crisis —belonged to a gym.
Quarterly workouts surged to almost 77 million in the quarter. That’s 25 workouts per connected fitness subscription on average per month.
That is the differentiation that Peloton is myopically focused on because that leads to low churn, that leads to great word of mouth and, frankly, it’s what I believe has changed this category of fitness because there’s finally something that is sustainable and located in the safety of one’s house.
Workouts per subscription have basically doubled from a year ago due to improvements in digital content offerings across non-bike formats like strength training and yoga.
Another tailwind is the accessibility of that content on Roku, Fire TV, Apple TV, Android TV right at the touch screen of the Peloton Bike.
It’s almost as if the coronavirus saved this company and Peloton hasn’t looked back.
Although I was discouraged about Peloton before the pandemic, it appears like a rejuvenated company during the virus era.
Luck sometimes needs to fall on your side and trading pullbacks from the long side makes sense with Peloton right now.
Considering it achieved its first profitable quarter, this exercise-from-home revolution has legs, and incremental revenue gains are highly probable moving forward.
They were just a marginal tech company before, but although not a juggernaut, they have come closer to respectability which is saying a lot for Peloton.
Remember that daily volatility is high in Peloton, I would not hold it until the next crash. Sell for profits and wait for a pullback to get a lower cost basis. Rinse and repeat.
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“It's simple science: exercising creates endorphins and endorphins make us happy. On the most basic level, Peloton sells happiness.” – Said CEO of Peloton John Foley
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/john-foley.png254240Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-16 10:00:512020-09-16 12:58:50September 16, 2020 - Quote of the Day
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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Banks have certainly been the red-headed stepchild of equity investment in 2020.
While technology shares have rocketed by two, three, and four-fold, banks have remained mire in the muck, down 35% on the year while the S&P 500 is up 6%.
However, all that is about to change.
Banks have become the call option on a US economic recovery. When the economic data runs hot, banks rally. When it’s cold, they sell-off. So, in recent months bank share prices have been flat-lining.
You have to now ask the question of when the data stay hot, how high will banks run?
There also is a huge sector rotation issue staring you in the face. Where would you rather put new money, stocks at all-time highs trading at ridiculous multiples, or a quality sector in the bargain basement? Big institutions have already decided what to do and are buying every dip.
Banks certainly took it on the nose with the onset of the pandemic. Interest rates went to zero and loan default rates soared, demanding a massive increase in loan loss provisions.
Much more stringent accounting rules also kicked in during January known as “Current Expected Credit Losses.” That requires banks to write off 100% of their losses immediately, rather than spread them out over a period of years.
Then in June, the Federal Reserve banned bank share buybacks and froze dividends to preserve capital in expectation of more loan defaults.
So what happens next?
For a start, fall down on your knees and thank Dodd-Frank, the Obama era financial regulation bill.
Banks carped for years that it unnecessarily and unfairly tied their hands by limiting leverage ratios to only 10:1. Morgan Stanley reached 40:1 going into the Great Recession and barely made it out alive, while ill-fated Lehman Brothers reached a suicidal 100:1 and didn’t.
That meant the banks went into the pandemic with the strongest balance sheets in decades. No financial crisis here.
Thanks to government efforts to bring the current Great Depression to a quick end, generous fees have been raining down on the banks from the numerous loan programs they are helping to implement.
And trading profits? You may have noticed that options trading volume is up a monster 95% so far in 2020 and increased by a positively meteoric 120% in August. That falls straight to the banks’ bottom lines. If you’re wondering why your online trading platform keeps crashing, that’s why.
I list below my favorite bank investments using the logic that during depressions, you want to buy Rolls Royces, Teslas, and Cadillacs at deep discounts, not Volkswagens, Fiats, or Trabants.
JP Morgan (JPM) – Is the crown jewel of the sector, with the best balance sheet and the strongest customers. It has over reserved for losses that are probably never going to happen, stowing away some $25 billion in the last quarter alone.
Morgan Stanley (MS) - Brokerage-oriented ones like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are benefiting the most from the explosion in stock and options trading. I’ll pick my former employer (MS), where I once accounted for 80% of equity division profits, as (GS) is still mired in the aftermath of the $5 billion Malaysia scandal.
Bank of America (BAC) - is another quality play with a fortress balance sheet.
Citigroup (C) – Is the leveraged play in the sector with a slightly weaker balance sheet and more aggressive marketing strategy. It seems like they’re always trying to catch up with (JPM). This week’s revelation of a surprise $900 million “operational loss” and the penalties to follow knocked 13% of the share price. This is the high volatility play in the sector.
And what about Wells Fargo (WFC), you may ask, the cheapest bank of all? Unfortunately, it still has to wear a hair suit because of its many regulatory transgressions, before, during, and after the financial crisis so I’ll give it a miss. Oh, and Warren Buffet is selling too.
The One
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/jpm-bank.png508936Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-16 09:02:002020-09-16 09:14:43The Bull Case for Banks
"If you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels," said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
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When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter September 15, 2020 Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ASTRAZENECA’S BUMP IN THE ROAD) (MRNA), (AZN), (PFE), (MRK), (JNJ), (GSK), (SNY), (CVAC), (BNTX), (INO)
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