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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 23, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 23, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(SOME SAGE ADVICE ON ASSET ALLOCATION)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-23 09:06:402021-04-23 11:02:35April 23, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 22, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
April 22, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(THE PFIZER OF ANIMAL HEALTHCARE IMPRESSES WITH GROWTH DRIVERS)
(ZTS), (PFE), (ELAN), (IDXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-22 16:02:372021-04-22 17:23:15April 22, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Pfizer of Animal Healthcare Impresses with Growth Drivers

Biotech Letter

The World Health Organization has yet to offer definitive proof that animals can infect humans with COVID-19.

However, there had been cases where humans infected the animals, including tigers, minks, lions, and domestic cats and dogs.

This might seem insane to some since we’re not even done vaccinating humans yet, but it definitely presents a large and potentially lucrative market.

Recently, Russia launched the first and only registered COVID-19 vaccine for animals, Carnivac-Cov.

Not to be outshone, Zoetis (ZTS), the leader in animal healthcare in the United States, also started working on its own COVID-19 vaccine.

In fact, Zoetis has already commenced testing its candidate on some great apes at San Diego Zoo earlier this month.

So far, the company administered two vaccine shots to three gorillas, four orangutans, and six bonobos.

Zoetis’ efforts date back to last year when news broke that dogs and cats in Hong Kong were also getting infected with COVID-19.

While the USDA has not yet approved the vaccines for dogs and cats, the organization is leaning towards giving the green light for minks.

As it turns out, minks are extremely susceptible to COVID-19, so vulnerable that Denmark actually ordered a mass culling of millions after an outbreak in November 2020.

To date, several zoos have already reached out to Zoetis to avail of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.

Considering that all these started with the cross-species transmission, experts are also hoping to learn more about it with the help of the company to prevent future pandemics.

Zoetis is ideally positioned to lead this charge since it’s the frontrunner in the pharmaceutical sector for pets and livestock.

This company used to be a branch of Pfizer (PFE), but was later spun off in 2012 to stand on its own.

In terms of competitors, the two most relatable companies to Zoetis are Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX).

Both offer virtually the same products, but Zoetis is the biggest among the three with approximately $75 billion in market capitalization.

In comparison, IDXX has roughly $41.55 billion, while ELAN has $13.61 billion.

Knowing that there’s more than a single way to expand its business, Zoetis has been favoring acquisitions as one of its growth options.

In the past years, Zoetis has been on a buying spree, making no less than eight acquisitions so far.

Half of these are geared towards veterinary diagnostics, with the intention of dominating the fastest-growing sector of the animal healthcare industry. 

All its recent acquisitions put Zoetis directly in competition with IDEXX, which is currently the undisputed leader in the veterinary diagnostics space.

To show the disparity of their current standing, IDEXX raked in $2.4 billion in revenue from diagnostics in 2020, while Zoetis only generated $305 million.

Needless to say, Zoetis has a lot of catching up to do.

Zoetis initiated its venture with a splashy $2 billion acquisition of Abaxis in 2018, which provided the ex-Pfizer company with a powerful foundation in the diagnostics sector.

This was immediately followed by a $35 million deal to buy ZNLabs in 2019. In that same year, Zoetis bought Phoenix Lab for $150 million and then continued its streak to acquire Ethos Diagnostic Science in 2020.

Apart from its venture in the diagnostics space, Zoetis has been working on bolt-on acquisitions to enhance its operations.

A good example is its $140 million acquisition of Performance Livestock Analytics in 2020, which added a software platform that Zoetis could market to farmers to help them make their farms more efficient.=

Another one is its $20 million deal with Fish Vet Group, which basically created the same platform as Performance Livestock Analytics but modified it for fish producers.

Looking at Zoetis’ acquisitions, the company is clearly building a diverse portfolio of products that go beyond pharmaceuticals.

It’s evident that it aims to enhance its leverage on tangential businesses like diagnostics and even farm management.

While these new revenue sources are definitely interesting, they’re not moving the needle just yet. Zoetis is still primarily relying on its sales of pet and livestock drugs.

Aside from developing a COVID-19 vaccine, Zoetis has been working on a strong drug pipeline.

Despite separating from Pfizer, the strategies it implemented in building its extensive and diverse portfolio of blockbuster products pretty much follow the same path and trajectory as its previous parent company.

For context, “blockbuster” drug is any product that generates a minimum of $100 million in sales annually.

Using this metric, Zoetis holds an impressive lineup of 13 blockbuster products.

In 2020, Zoetis released a “triple threat” product called Simparica Trio, which can protect dogs from heartworms, eliminate ticks and fleas, and treat and prevent hookworms and roundworms.

This is the first-ever product that offers combined protection for all three—fleas, heartworms, and ticks—in a single treatment.

Despite the financial impact of the pandemic, Simparica Trio still raked in an impressive $150 million in its first year.

Reviewing its future product pipelines, Zoetis has two more potential blockbusters slated this year: Librela and Solensia. These two will also be the first-of-a-kind treatments for osteoarthritis in cats and dogs.

Delving deeper, Zoetis holds No. 1 spot in the companion animals or pets, fish, and livestock cattle segments. It ranks No. 2 in the swine market and No. 3 in the poultry sector.

In total, Zoetis has more than 300 product lines launched in the market, and the company still has more lined up for release soon.

Akin to Pfizer’s approach, Zoetis’ style is to dominate in select core markets, developing numerous blockbuster brands that generate billions every year.

Admittedly, the human healthcare market is substantially more profitable than its animal counterpart, but for Zoetis, this also represents significantly less competition from other drug developers.

At this point, Zoetis is not only in a strong position in the animal healthcare industry, but also dominating in a market that still has incredible room for growth.

In 2020, the total pet industry market was estimated to be worth $99 billion in the United States alone.

More importantly, this segment is projected to climb in the mid-single digits in the next few years.

A key approach in Zoetis’ growth is its strategy to develop and sustain a product pipeline with an average lifespan or age of at least 30 years.

The company also constantly launches new drugs and announces enhancements to their current products.

These are seen in the over 1,100 new products and improvements Zoetis has introduced over the past five years.

Judging from the company’s performance and future plans, it’s reasonable to expect a $200 price target for Zoetis over the next 12 months, which would indicate about 26.50% upside potential based on the current trading levels.

Taking into consideration the potential 5% downside risk, shares could pull back to reach $153 before starting to rebound again.

Meanwhile, the highest price target for Zoetis could be $210.

Overall, I believe Zoetis is a stable company with strong upside potential in the next months, and growth investors would be remiss to ignore the achievements of this company.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-22 16:00:322021-05-02 23:57:50The Pfizer of Animal Healthcare Impresses with Growth Drivers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 22, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 22, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE IDIOT’S GUIDE TO INVESTING),
(TSLA), (BYND), (JPM)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-22 09:06:212021-04-22 10:25:49April 22, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 21, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 21, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BUY OR SELL FIRST QUARTER TECH EARNINGS?)
(IBM), (MU), (SAMSUNG), (ZM), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-21 14:04:002021-04-21 20:10:50April 21, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Buy or Sell First Quarter Tech Earnings?

Tech Letter

We are on the cusp of tech earnings which could either take us on the next leg up or leg down.

Going off of data points that we are getting from around the world, it’s clear that the secular bull market in big technology is as healthy as ever.

A few weeks ago, South Korea’s behemoth Samsung Electronics sounded off when it said first-quarter profit likely rose 44% because of the surge in sales of smartphones and TVs.

The work-from-home economy has made technology stocks the ultimate winner and now we need to assess what will happen to these very stocks in 2021.

Many analysts out there see an ongoing correction in names such as videoconferencing software company Zoom (ZM) which is going through a drawn-out consolidation phase after hyper-growth in their products last year.

That is not a bad thing, but frustrating in the short-term.

Tech stocks are renowned for getting ahead of itself.

Waiting for tech stocks to grow into their valuation is no fun, however, ultimately, there is an avalanche of money piling into this sector because it is fundamentally underpinned by cash cow secular trends.

Part of that thesis also is applied internationally to giants like Samsung, the South Korean technology giant forecast January-March operating profit at $8.32 billion.

Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S21 smartphone series outsold the previous version by a two-to-one margin in the six weeks since its January launch.

Profit in Samsung’s television set and home appliance business also likely more than doubled due to continued stay-at-home demand.

Cross-town TV and home appliance rival LG Electronics announced its largest-ever preliminary quarterly operating profit for January-March.

The secular health is not only confined to Korea, as U.S. memory chip peer Micron Technology last month forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst estimates due to rising demand brought about by a global shift to remote work.

The price of DRAM chips widely used in laptops and other computing devices rose 5.3% in January-March from the previous three months.

Samsung will invest about 10 trillion won in its chip contract manufacturing business this year, compared to about 6 trillion won last year.

In addition to the performance, regulation is now set to offer another helping hand to U.S. tech with two top White House aides hosting a meeting on how to better equip the state of the U.S. supply chain.

Samsung is considering a new $17 billion chip plant in the United States.

On the night before an earnings flurry, we also got word from IBM that they finally reversed 4 years of declining revenue to post 1% revenue growth.

Like many big tech groups, IBM has jumped on the bandwagon of clients digitally transforming their businesses, using hybrid cloud and AI to capture new growth opportunities, increase productivity and create operating flexibility.

Their revenue performance this quarter reflects this. Global business service (GBS) cloud revenue growth accelerated to almost 30%, doubling its growth rate from the prior quarter with strong growth across the portfolio.

The numbers reflect expanding practices with ecosystem partners like Salesforce and Adobe and strong momentum in their acquisition of Red Hat.

IBM has doubled the number of Red Hat client engagements from the prior year to over 150, working with companies such as HBO, Marriott, Vodafone, and Honda.

They’ve now signed $2 billion of business in their Red Hat practice inception to date.

Across these, IBM's cloud revenue was up 18% in the quarter and over the last 12 months and now stands at over $26 billion for the last year.

Like many other tech firms, employment hiring is expanding with IBM hiring thousands of people in the past quarter.

Like other firms as well, M&A is an often-utilized growth strategy with IBM closing on six acquisitions since mid-December.

They are adding go-to-market and delivery capabilities in GBS, and technical skills in Red Hat. And they’re increasing R&D in areas like AI and quantum to drive innovation.

Across cloud and cognitive software, IBM continues to increase subscription and support renewal rates, driving the record deferred income levels.

Red Hat continued solid performance with normalized revenue growth of 15%, led by Red Hat Enterprise Linux and OpenShift, both of which continue to gain share.

Even IBM, the laggard of tech, is improving their balance sheet by whittling down $3 billion from year-end, their debt was down $5 billion. They have now reduced debt by about $17 billion from the peak.

IBM even still delivers shareholders a nice dividend.

The takeaways from IBM and Samsung will largely apply to many of the tech companies that are about to report earnings.

Hiring is up because the business is doing so well.

Even if these legacy operations are only growing minimally in IBM, their cloud operations are far and away the highest growth element in their portfolio, and the performance of Red Hat indicates that.

The secular tailwinds are indeed helped by the business environment undergirded by a work-from-home assumption which is why companies like Samsung are posting record sales in tablets, smartphones, and can’t keep up with the demand for chips.

We are getting indication that much of the transformation into the 2020 digital economy is here to stay, but the issue in April is that although companies are as healthy as could be, firms are now facing Himalayan-like comparisons with last year.

Last year, April was a time when technology took off like a scalded chimp, and fast forward to 2021, many tech firms won’t be able to beat those year-over-year numbers they posted during peak lockdown business.

What I expect is for many tech firms to announce that comparisons were tough to beat because of a once in a 100-year event that locked down most of the world, but many tech firms will reaccelerate growth after a period of earnings consolidation.

Expectations have gotten a little stretched and outperformers like Alphabet (GOOGL) are already up 25% year to date, but I can argue that the guys at Google are making miracles and are surpassing even astronomically high expectations.

That won’t be the case for other tech companies that will need miracle performance to outdo exorbitant forecasts, but just quite aren’t there like Google.

Consolidation through sideways price action could take hold in the second quarter as many tech firms need time to recalibrate so they can reaccelerate in the second half of the year which they indeed will.

IBM

 

IBM

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-21 14:02:212021-04-27 01:56:50Buy or Sell First Quarter Tech Earnings?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 21, 2021 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a fire hydrant.” Said American Entrepreneur Mitchell Kapor

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/mitchell-kapor.png 380 308 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-21 14:00:532021-04-21 20:09:41April 21, 2021 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 21, 2021

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 21, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NEVER WORKS)
(FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOG), (MSFT), (VIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-21 08:04:292021-04-21 11:01:15April 21, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 20, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
April 20, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(A DEPENDABLE BUT UNDERVALUED HEALTHCARE STOCK)
(UNH), (ANTM), (CI), (HUM), (CNC), (CHNG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-20 16:02:172021-04-21 09:56:36April 20, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Dependable but Undervalued Healthcare Stock

Biotech Letter

The ongoing seesaw fights in the stock market are causing too much drama that cunning investors can—and definitely should—steer clear from.

Instead of fretting over speculative and risky investments, it’s better off staying with tested and proven big-name companies that will remain solid buys for the years to come and continue to deliver positive results despite periods of uncertainty.

Among the huge names in the healthcare industry, United Health (UNH) is a strong contender that meets the criteria.

After almost a decade of delivering high returns, which shows off fast-rising earnings expectations, it’s interesting to see that the market has recently backed away from this blue-chip stock.

Nonetheless, the market’s skittishness offers an opening for investors looking to buy in the dip a company that pays dividends and promises to steadily boost your savings in the years to come.

Founded way back in 1974, UNH has become a top name in the healthcare industry, landing in seventh place on the Fortune 500 list.

To date, UNH has four main divisions handling its over 50 million members both in the US and across the globe: its private health insurance business UnitedHealthcare, its pharmacy benefits segment OptumRx, its healthcare services provider branch OptumHealth, and its analytics platform OptumInsight.

UNH has a market capitalization of $354 billion.

In comparison, the closest competitor is Anthem (ANTM), with $87.93 billion. In terms of market cap, the two are followed by Cigna (CI) with $85 billion, Humana (HUM) with $53.81 billion, and Centene (CNC) with $36.19 billion. 

Amid the financial crisis brought about by the pandemic, UNH still reported a 6.2% jump in its revenue in 2020 to reach $257.1 billion.

The company’s most prominent growth driver is its Optum line, and UNH is making sure that this division continues to grow.

One of the most indicative moves towards that direction is UNH’s $7.8 billion acquisition announcement of technology and data analytics company Change Healthcare (CHNG), which should be completed by the second quarter of 2021.

In the agreement, UNH is offering Change Healthcare $25.75 for its shares, representing a premium of roughly 41% above the latter’s stock price.

UNH plans to merge Change Healthcare’s operation into OptumInsight, which currently handles hospital systems health plans, life sciences companies, and even governments.

In the first nine months of 2020 alone, OptumInsight generated over $1.9 billion, contributing to roughly 11% of UNH’s total bottom line. 

The combination of these two will all but guarantee that UNH’s possession of the biggest and most powerful platform in the entire healthcare industry, with the acquisition projected to add approximately $470 million to the company’s adjusted earnings in 2022. 

The decision to acquire Change Healthcare is part of the string of M&A deals executed by UNH to stay ahead of the game.

In 2019, it bought two companies to expand its operations: the DaVita Medical Group for $4.3 billion and Equian for $3.2 billion. Prior to these, UNH splurged on a $12.8 billion acquisition of Catamaran in 2015.

For 2021, UNH projects its earnings to increase, estimating its per-share profits to be somewhere between $16.90 and $17.40—and that estimate already took into consideration the headwinds involving COVID-19 that could still weigh on the company’s bottom line.

While this may appear optimistic, the truth is, generating strong results isn’t a novel accomplishment for UNH.

In the past three years, the company reported a net income of $10 billion or higher, with net margins recorded at 5% above its revenue.

Over the course of the last 12 months, UNH stock has climbed 24%, beating the S&P 500, which rose 18% during the same period. It also offers a decent dividend of 1.5%, which is admittedly slightly lower than the S&P 500 average at 1.6%.

Overall, UNH is a safe stock that you will not have to anxiously watch over and can hold in your portfolio for years.

More importantly, this company remains undervalued and still shows a lot of room for growth.

So if you’re a value investor looking with an interest in the insurance and healthcare services industry, then this market leader is a sustainable addition to your portfolio.

unh

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-04-20 16:00:202021-04-26 01:46:35A Dependable but Undervalued Healthcare Stock
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