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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bitcoin Set Up Well for the Long Term

Bitcoin Letter

Whether you are in it for the money or in it for the tech, many have earmarked asset appreciation as a pillar of their current and future growth.

Step one is just owning crypto.

Speaking for many Americans on the grind and eking out an existence, you guessed it right, many are in the same boat.

If faced with a crisis, financially many would say they are royally screwed.

Bank rates aren’t up to snuff, and it just seems the government is giving the people a raw deal constantly.

Then look across the Atlantic and the climate doesn’t look all that fantastic either.

I could easily argue that the latest military action in the east of Europe has triggered alarm bells not just here at home but in rich and poor countries around the world as well.

Foreign investors look at the confiscation of US dollar reserves and freezing of assets in Europe and ask themselves, am I next?

I understand that the Western government feels the urge to go after illicit money, but then what about the rest of the foreign assets that aren’t necessarily all that clean either, do they get wiped out as well?

The reaction to foreign assets and their protection could trigger a massive pivot to cryptocurrency and bitcoin because unprecedented action by fiscal authorities could have a long-lasting impact on foreign capital and its direction.

We already have a young generation who is holding hope that crypto can be a lifeline to get out of this endless loop of personal financial tumult.

But crypto is not secure. We all know this. For investors with a budget already, it’s difficult to justify investing into a speculative asset class that failed recent acid tests.

I don’t blame marginal investors if they believe cryptocurrency is still very scammy and hasn’t matured enough to graduate from being priced with a low-quality growth stock.

What’s the solution?

How about donating plasma? Just kidding. But on a serious note, the macro events abroad signal that cryptocurrency absolutely has a role in many people’s lives.

The quality of global governance has gone from bad to worse.

The consequence is widespread panic and chaos that are spilling over into NATO borders.

Granted, refugees don’t have a lot of money to invest right now, but I could easily see young Russians and Ukrainians avoiding fiat currency altogether and preferring to go with crypto once they start earning fiat abroad.

Even fiat can go to zero which each one has over time.

Ask the Romans, their fiat went to zero as well.

Then at a structural level, crypto is starting to establish itself not only in America but in other outposts. For instance when cryptocurrency exchange Binance just announced that it had been granted a license to operate in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The company’s presence in the Middle East has been building up lately, with a crypto service provider license in another Gulf market, Bahrain, coming in earlier this week.

Under the Dubai virtual asset provider (VASP) license, Binance will be allowed to set up an office in the emirate and provide digital asset exchange services to pre-qualified investors and financial firms under the newly adopted regulatory guidelines.

Both Bahrain and UAE embrace an innovation-friendly approach and compete for the status of the region’s most crypto-supportive jurisdiction.

As much as it’s painful to see one’s local currency blow up in one fell swoop like the Russian Ruble and all the other post-Soviet currencies, the people of these countries must question if they really want to go on the same ride with other Western countries’ fiat when they are debasing the hell out of their currencies every year.

Russians can’t even use their bank cards because MasterCard and Visa cut off service. Will they ever trust these services again?

Over 25% of the current US dollars in existence were printed in the past 2 years and that isn’t necessarily the best vote of confidence for a Russian whose savings dissipated into thin air.

And who wants Chinese yuan?

Not me and the next guy shouldn’t want it either.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/bitcoin-may1722.png 390 872 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-17 16:02:392022-03-17 16:36:41Bitcoin Set Up Well for the Long Term
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - March 17, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Bitcoin will do to banks what email did to the postal industry.” – Said Swedish information technology entrepreneur Rick Falkvinge

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/falkvinge.png 458 284 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-17 16:00:352022-03-17 16:35:31Quote of the Day - March 17, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 17, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 17, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY DOCTORS, PILOTS, AND ENGINEERS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-17 13:04:172022-03-17 14:22:30March 17, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 16, 2022

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE GENIUS AT SOFTBANK GETS EXPOSED)
(SFTBY), (ARKK), (DIDI), (BABA), (CPNG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-16 16:04:152022-03-16 16:40:03March 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Genius at Softbank Gets Exposed

Tech Letter

Softbank’s (SFTBY) Masayoshi Son has been heralded as the consensus aficionado on all things artificial intelligence and a venture capitalist who has effectively bet the ranch on transformational technology.

It also sounds like a page out of the Cathy Woods ARK funds (ARKK) fiasco to be honest with you.

Leveraging a portfolio with borrowed money works well during good times, but Son is finding out that it isn’t all rosy on the downside.

His vast fortune has crumbled along with the performance of the Nasdaq index, and it’s Son who owns many of the low-quality tech names.

His wealth has cratered, going from $25 billion last year to around $14 billion today.

Body bags are starting to pile up, such as the fiascos at German’s Wirecard AG and Greensill Capital.

Investments that go to zero aren’t the hallmark of a stock market picking genius.

Then what about Son’s China bet, Alibaba (BABA), that, has been taken back behind the woodshed and beaten to a pulp.

Then the Russia/Ukraine conflict happened, giving the flight to safety bid more life and inflation hedged assets even more time in the sun.

This has been the worse environment to invest in technology companies since the dot com bust of 2001.

Softbank’s parent stock in Japan is also down 60% and questions have arisen whether at some point soon there will be margin calls.

At the very minimum, Son is lurching towards a liquidity crisis of epic proportions.

If Son thought somebody will come in to swoop him out of his troubles, then I would love to hear the escape plan.

There just isn’t that much bright news ahead if we consider that the international conflict has brought forward a chance of recession at the same time the Fed plans to hike rates.

These 2 macro events are highly negative for tech valuations.

Son has also presided over more disasters like Chinese ride sharer DiDi (DIDI) which sold off 44% in just one day last week and South Korean ecommerce company Coupang (CPNG) whose stock has more than halved since its IPO.

The Japanese firm depends on financing to maintain its investment pace and support its share buyback program. It will need as much as $45 billion in cash this year.

The onerous funding is now a problem when the sails aren’t with Softbank’s back and he will need to cut losses just to pay off debt.

Serious red flags of Son overextending could eventually take the whole company down.

Son also has personal loans tied to company stock after pledging shares worth $5.7 billion to 18 lenders including Bank Julius Baer & Co., Mizuho Bank Ltd., and Daiwa Securities Group Inc.

More importantly, the IPO market is now morbid making it impossible for Softbank to capitalize on exciting new offerings because there are none.

I hiatus of new IPOs makes Son’s high growth strategy null and void.

There simply is no appetite now for high-growth stocks amid this poor macro backdrop.

Whispers of stagflation are cropping up all over the place and it could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Son’s image has also taken a massive hit as his poor investment decisions make him look like a novice investor.  

It’s plausible to believe he won’t get that sort of leash to lock and load in the future with other people’s money.

The Saudis have already soured on a second $100 billion vision fund, and one might question why Son didn’t take profits in an Alibaba position when he could have.

Son might be so stubborn that he believes all his investments will become successful through hell or high water.

I don’t believe investors want that type of defiant attitude with their hard-earned money.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter saw this upcoming weakness a mile away, and the fact that Son has buried his head in the sand makes us question who his trusted advisors are.

Volatile markets need more tacticians to get out of potential catastrophes.

The sad takeaway is that while Masayoshi Son might believe he is always the smartest guy in the room, he is just surrounded by "yes men" who provide a unique echo chamber that helps him execute disastrous investment decisions.

Low-quality tech is being penalized by the bucket load and Son is the poster child for owning overhyped tech that sometimes isn’t even tech--like the office sharing company, WeWork.

Avoid Son’s investment monologues because the proof is in the pudding at the point; and when it comes down to it, he doesn’t know more than the next guy.

 

son

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-16 16:02:252022-03-30 03:19:50The Genius at Softbank Gets Exposed
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“A squirrel dying in front of your house may be more relevant to your interests right now than people dying in Africa.” – Said CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/mark-zuckerberg2.png 239 208 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-16 16:00:342022-03-16 16:38:57March 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 16, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, MARCH 18 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TLT), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-16 09:04:532022-03-16 11:01:43March 16, 2022
Douglas Davenport

March 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The stock market is not expensive at 0.25% Fed funds and 1.68% government bonds,” said my old investor and mentor Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/bargains.png 243 499 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2022-03-16 09:00:272022-03-16 10:54:26March 16, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 15, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AN UNDER-APPRECIATED STOCK WITH A BOATLOAD OF CASH)
(BMY), (CRSP), (VRTX), (BLUE), (GILD), (NVS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-15 17:02:332022-03-15 21:58:53March 15, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Underappreciated Stock with a Boatload of Cash

Biotech Letter

Warren Buffett is nothing but a dyed-in-the-wool type of investor. A key strategy in his success is to target companies with notably solid fundamental businesses but with shares trading at a bargain or at least a discount in relation to their intrinsic value.

Needless to say, this value-oriented tactic has worked well for roughly six decades, with Berkshire’s stock delivering total returns of 6,450% on its capital.

Taking a cue from the Oracle of Omaha’s playbook, let’s take a look at one of the cheapest biotechnology and healthcare stocks in Berkshire’s portfolio to date and see how it has been performing.

At a hair below eight times its forward earnings, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) comes out as Berkshire’s third-cheapest stock holding overall.

This pharmaceutical giant, which has a market capitalization of $144 billion, is the sixth-biggest in the list of what is informally called the “Big 8” US pharma firms.

However, BMY’s stock had fallen by -2% in the past 12 months after experiencing some genuine momentum in 2021 when it reached $69 in August. The share price fell to $54 in December. It has since recovered and is now at $65.

A primary reason for investors snubbing this pharmaceutical giant is the impending loss of market exclusivity of three of its best-selling treatments, Revlimid, Opdivo, and Eliquis.

Although it’s reasonable to be anxious over these patent expirations, BMY has developed a great plan to not simply offset the future decline in sales but also to sustain the momentum of its top line all the way until 2030.

Basically, BMY has lined up multiple new drug launches spaced in the following years, with a number of these candidates expected to become potential blockbusters.

Another key part of the company’s growth strategy is acquisitions.

One of the significant moves BMY executed in recent years is its whopping $74 billion acquisition of Celgene in 2019, which is expected to bolster its immunology and oncology sectors. This was immediately followed by a $13 billion buyout of MyoKardia in 2020, which would expand its cardiovascular roster.

Celgene's deal granted BMY a valuable collection of pipeline assets, which the company has been leveraging in preparation for the patent cliffs.

Aside from the added $15 billion in annual revenue stream from Revlimid, which BMY used to boost its cash flow and pay off some debts, the company also inherited Reblozyl.

Since the acquisition, Reblozyl has gained approval for beta-thalassemia and anemia patients.

While this is not as groundbreaking as the gene therapies offered by CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vertex (VRTX), and even bluebird bio (BLUE), this treatment can still reach peak sales of $2 to $4 billion annually.

Another Celgene candidate poised to become an additional revenue stream for BMY is Inrebic, a JAK2 inhibitor created for myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. This is projected to rake in $400 million in peak sales.

Zeposia, a treatment for autoimmune conditions, has already gained approval for multiple sclerosis and is queued for clinical trials for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis.

If it receives the green light for all three, this is another $3 billion opportunity for BMY.

The inherited assets from Celgene are Breyanzi, a CAR-T therapy approved for large B-cell lymphoma, and Abecma, which is also an approved treatment for multiple myeloma.

These last two treatments are potential blockbusters as well.

Breyanzi’s list price is $410,000, with the therapy estimated to reach $3 billion in peak sales. Meanwhile, Abecma is listed at $491,500 and is projected to peak at $1 billion.

By 2029, BMY expects to develop new revenue streams worth $25 billion from its current portfolio and growing assets.

Looking at the above assets, BMY’s strategy becomes evident.

When BMY acquired Celgene for an exorbitant amount three years ago, the bigger company’s management team showed just how prepared they were to take the hit in the form of substantial debts in exchange for massive steps forward.

Adding to its expansion efforts, BMY has recently completed a deal with Century Therapeutics.

This marks BMY’s major foray into the promising cell therapy space.

While BMY has not concentrated on this sector before, it already has promising candidates in the form of its Celgene assets, Breyanzi and Abecma.

So far, Century and BMY have agreed to develop four different CAR-T cancer therapies on top of expanding the indications for Breyanzi and Abecma.

At the moment, the big pharma names focusing on this sector include Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Novartis (NVS).

This means BMY has a fighting chance to dominate in this market following its strategic collaboration with Century.

If all goes according to plan, BMY’s work with this cell therapy company might even turn out to be as lucrative as its deal with Celgene acquisition.

Overall, BMY has proven itself to be a reliable money-making titan in the biotechnology and healthcare industry.

BMY is a growth machine that consistently comes up with ingenious plans to grow over the years.

From $20.8 billion in 2017, its profits skyrocketed to an impressive $46.4 billion in 2021, indicating a remarkable 123% increase.

Moreover, the company anticipates that its free cash flow will surpass $50 billion by 2024, implying that it’s not worried over the impending loss of patent exclusivities and flexing its ability to generate a boatload of cash to complete even more collaborations and acquisitions.

 

bmy celgene

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-15 17:00:302022-03-30 03:07:24An Underappreciated Stock with a Boatload of Cash
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