Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ECOMMERCE PLATEAUS)
(AMZN)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ECOMMERCE PLATEAUS)
(AMZN)
Amazon’s decision to look for subletters of 10 million square feet of warehouse space means they don’t believe ecommerce growth will migrate into the extra space they planned for.
This is a big deal because it takes a long time to acquire the extra footage to expand capacity.
It doesn’t happen in one day.
It’s almost a surrender of sorts that this short-term pandemic ecommerce bump had no legs.
It’s over like it almost never existed, sort of like the health crisis.
So why is this a problem?
Amazon’s ecommerce investors' main reason for investing in Amazon is to earn money through appreciating shares.
This only comes about if their businesses are growing and behind their cloud division called Amazon Web Services (AWS), ecommerce is the second most important.
This is why Amazon has seen such as epic selloff in the first half of the year.
I do believe the negativity has somewhat overshot which is why I executed a deep-in-the money bull call option spread on this stock.
It’s not the death of Amazon, hardly so, but it’s been really painful for shareholders.
It was just in 2020 when Amazon added warehouse space faster than it ultimately needed in response to the challenges of the pandemic, outpacing consumer sales and resulting in an extra $2 billion in costs in the first quarter.
However, given the extraordinary demand and uncertainty Amazon was seeing at the time, there’s not much else the company could have done.
This is not what management describes as “right sizing capacity” and in fact is an error in capacity expectations.
Companies don’t spend an extra $2 billion in capacity when they don’t need to.
It would cripple many small ecommerce companies.
Amazon’s online sales fell 3% for the quarter to $51 billion, as shoppers relied less on the company for critical purchases.
Amazon’s recent announcement of a “Buy with Prime” program, serving ecommerce sites other than Amazon.com, takes the company further down the path of using its fulfillment and delivery network to offer shipping as a service, generating additional revenue and potentially competing with UPS and FedEx.
It’s similar to what Amazon did with Amazon Web Services, using its online expertise and cloud infrastructure as a starting point for a business that generated $18.4 billion in revenue in the first quarter.
The company has spent the past few years creating its own last-mile delivery network, known as “AMZL,” leveraging a network of dedicated Amazon Delivery Service Partners and reducing its dependence on third-party delivery companies such as UPS and the U.S. Postal Service.
The 45% selloff in Amazon has been quite overdone bringing the PE ratio all the way down to around 50.
If energy prices and inflation can moderate somewhat in the back half of the year, AMZN would be the first candidate to extend this dead cat bounce into a real bounce back to $3,000 per share.
AMZN is one of the beneficiaries of lower inflation because of its high reliance on fuel to deliver products the last mile.
That cannot be substituted at all so the stock market is reflecting the short-term pain.
The energy having such a stronghold over the tech market is quite unprecedented and don’t expect AMZN to start their oil refiner business.
However, I do expect choppy trading as rising rates and lower purchasing power for Americans do a dirty job on the AMZN bottom line.
“I couldn't imagine a more incompetent politician than myself.” – Said Founder and Co-CEO of Salesforce Marc Benioff
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
May 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HERE IS YOUR NEXT DECADE LONG PLAY),
(CAT), ($COPPER), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WAITING FOR THIS BIOTECH TO STOP MONKEYING AROUND)
(INO), (BVNKF), (EBS), (JNJ), (PFE), (MRNA), (BNTX), (AZN), (NVAX), (REGN), (QGEN)
Almost immediately after US President Joe Biden advised that “everybody” should be concerned over the new worldwide outbreak of the monkeypox virus, the shares of biotechnology and healthcare companies working on monkeypox treatments and vaccines started to rise.
Shares of Danish company Bavarian Nordic (BVNKF), the only monkeypox vaccine developer approved in the US, were up 5.8% in premarket following the announcement.
Bavarian Nordic’s vaccine, called Jynneos, uses a live version of the smallpox virus, which has been altered so that it no longer can replicate in the recipient’s body or cause any infection.
Instead, it has been engineered to activate the immune system and prepare the body’s defenses to fight off smallpox and monkeypox viruses.
Based on data from Africa, two shots of Jynneos, administered 28 days apart, recorded up to 85% in terms of efficacy against monkeypox.
In 2019, Jynneos received regulatory approval from the US FDA for both smallpox and monkeypox.
Aside from Bavarian Nordic, shares of Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) also rose by 11.8% following Biden’s announcement.
While Emergent has no vaccine specifically for monkeypox, it has a smallpox vaccine that can be used to prevent monkeypox.
It can be recalled that Emergent BioSolutions has been an exiled ticker after the US Congress launched an investigation on the manufacturing issues in its Bayview Facility in 2021.
Although the company has managed to clean up that mess and is back to working with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to produce COVID-19 vaccines, EBS has yet to return to investors’ good graces.
While the scale of the threat has yet to be determined, the US has secured contracts for Jynneos and Emergent BioSolutions’ vaccine and is already stockpiling in case of an outbreak.
What’s curious, though, is that another company has benefited from this announcement despite not having any monkeypox or even smallpox vaccine candidates.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) shares rose by 12.2% following the announcement—a surge that couldn’t be adequately explained since the company has no relevant product and does not seem to have any program even remotely linked to this potential outbreak.
As far as I can tell, the last time Inovio even mentioned monkeypox was in 2010 when it discussed a potential experiment on a vaccine that could protect nonhuman primates against the virus. However, nothing came out of that plan either.
If Inovio sounds familiar to you, it’s probably because it was one of the frontrunners in the early days of the COVID-19 vaccine race.
However, it eventually lagged behind the likes of Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and AstraZeneca (AZN).
One primary reason for this is the FDA’s decision to suspend Inovio’s Phase 3 trial in late 2020, with the study only resuming sometime in 2021.
As if that’s not enough, Inovio also faced some internal battles following the resignation of its CEO.
Now, the company has shifted gears and plans to offer its COVID-19 candidate as a booster shot instead of a primary vaccine.
The change of plans regarding the COVID-19 vaccine might be disappointing for some, but it’s essential to be realistic about expectations.
At the moment, the vaccine landscape has been dominated by Pfizer and Moderna, with AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson gaining ground as well.
Just recently, another challenger joined the fray: Novavax (NVAX).
Needless to say, the COVID-19 vaccine market is becoming crowded, and the competition is getting more intense.
Considering that Inovio has yet to catch up with the development of its candidate, it would be unwise to challenge the already established developers dominating the market today.
Hence, offering its COVID-19 candidate as a booster would provide it with higher marketability since health experts encourage people to mix and match their vaccines.
Outside these efforts, Inovio is a leader in developing DNA plasma-based vaccines. Before the pandemic, the company had been working on an extensive pipeline using this technology.
One of the most promising DNA-based vaccines from Inovio is VGX-3100, which targets an HPV-triggered disease called cervical dysplasia. Simply, this is a pre-cancer condition.
Inovio’s candidate is the first-ever DNA-based treatment that reached Phase 3 trials and reaped positive results.
This is an exciting development, especially in light of Inovio’s partnership with Qiagen (QGEN), as the two can leverage their work to determine which patients are at risk.
Basically, Inovio and Qiagen might just be on the verge of coming out with a preventive vaccine for cancer.
If things go according to plan, the data should be released by the second half of 2022. In terms of price, VGX-3100 is expected to cost roughly $10,000.
Aside from these, Inovio is also collaborating with Regeneron (REGN) to develop a cure for glioblastoma, an incredibly aggressive type of brain cancer. So far, Phase 2 trial results look promising, and the partners are on their way to progressing to Phase 3.
Inovio’s pipeline covers many DNA vaccines targeting infectious diseases and cancers. Most are still in the early phases of development.
While the programs in Phase 2 and 3 trials are promising, I think it’s still too early to predict whether Inovio is truly capable of delivering on its promises.
I know that Inovio shares look like such a bargain these days, especially if the company ends up receiving regulatory approvals in the coming months, but I’m not yet fully convinced.
Overall, Inovio is worth considering right now. It’s definitely on my list.
But before I commit, I’d like to see at least whether the company’s COVID-19 and HPV pipelines can move past the latest headwinds and advance to the next levels.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO IDENTIFY CRYPTO SCAMS)
(BTC), (ICO)
Awareness of safety is definitely a must with crypto — that’s not a shocker with it being a brand-new asset that many have a hard time contemplating.
It’s true that it’s a lot to wrap your head around.
Cryptocurrencies are speculative by nature. They lack traditional fundamentals, and a certain leap of faith is needed to invest in it.
It’s not easy for investors to analyze and assign a value to, and that’s where I come in to try to make sense of it.
Crypto markets are also less regulated in general, so it's easier to get ripped off.
Market manipulation is the intentional effort to artificially influence or interfere with asset prices.
Typically, scammers manipulate markets to tip the scales in order to accrue an unfair advantage.
Let’s go through the list of tricks that could be played on you.
Spoofing is done by placing fake buy or sell orders, which are canceled before they're filled.
Scammers use fake accounts and bots to place large trades, giving other investors the impression that demand is either increasing or decreasing.
Front-running is transacting based on knowledge of future transactions.
For instance, miners or node operators can have insight into pending trades. They could then leverage their inside access to make profitable trades ahead of major price swings.
It’s critical that investors migrate to voluminous, reputable, and transparent crypto exchanges and not try to get fancy with the middleman.
This makes a massive difference.
Another scheme is the pump and dump where fraudsters convince people to buy in, crypto schemers spread misleading information about minimally traded coins through social media.
They signal that a 10-fold increase in shares is imminent triggering hot new money then comes the dump.
As momentum builds, other investors cash in and drive the price up, while the schemers cash out and make a run for the exit.
Another deviant scheme is when crypto developers abandon a project but keep the funds raised from investors.
Bad actors can list a new token on a decentralized exchange, pair it with a legitimate cryptocurrency, and drum up interest on social media to lure in investors.
They often pay for known celebrities to pass it off as a legitimate asset.
The whitewashing of the asset fools a bunch.
Traditional hacking and theft targeting crypto wallets can be a digital or physical device.
These wallets have keys — both public and private. The former is a public address that allows crypto to be deposited into the wallet, similar to how routing and bank account numbers enable direct deposits.
The latter is like the password to an online banking platform. Whoever has access to that password can control the funds within the account.
Just as you wouldn't share your credit card number with a stranger, keep your private keys somewhere safe. Scammers can hack accounts and withdraw funds — and they'll employ various methods to get investors to reveal their private information.
Lastly, being scammed via initial coin offering (ICO) is happening less and less as many cryptocurrencies do a better job establishing their credibility.
This is the crypto equivalent of an initial public offering (IPO) for a stock.
Through an ICO, companies can raise money to fund a crypto development, such as a token, app, or relevant service. In exchange for pledging funds, the investor receives an issuance of newly minted coins.
Similar to rug pull, ICO scams collect the funds of early investors only to abandon the project shortly after.
An easy way to recognize an ICO scam is to review the company's whitepaper. This document details the specifications behind the project, including strategy, goals, and market analysis.
If the company doesn't provide a whitepaper, that's a red flag.
Decentralized assets are not all unicorns and parabolic trading.
There is an ugly side to it devoid of standardized oversight and investors must stay on the lookout for these easily avoidable pitfalls.
Always double-check the broker, asset, and environment in which trading occurs. Never take anything for granted and err on the side of caution.
"Bitcoin was created to serve a highly political intent, a free and uncensored network where all can participate with equal access." – Said British-Iranian programmer Amir Taaki
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