Global Market Comments
May 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A DISASTER)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG)
Global Market Comments
May 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A DISASTER)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 25, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AD MARKETING CRATERS)
(SNAP), (TWTR), (GOOGL), (FB)
This could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine for the consumer falling off a cliff.
There have been soft signals showing that credit card debt is piling up, but the truth is that Americans are spending more money on things they need and not on luxuries.
Snap (SNAP) recording a disastrous earnings report is showing us rapidly slowing growth and digital ad spend is usually first to go in the broader economy.
This leading indicator is essential to understanding the economy because companies don’t and won’t advertise when they understand the incremental marketing spend won’t result in meaningful sales.
Companies are just losing money at that point.
What happens is just a complete freeze of ad spend only to hibernate until the next cycle picks up again and demand returns.
The same dynamics apply to the other digital ad players like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Twitter (TWTR) which is why we are seeing 10% selloffs in Google.
The benefit to being such a big and strong company is that Google sells off by 10% while Snap drops by 45%.
Not exactly fair but long-term holders won’t dump Google right away unless there are real structural problems.
To break it down even further, the recession is quickly approaching and the economy is now going into reverse.
Next will be job layoffs and laid-off workers won’t buy much if marketed to.
Snaps’ macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated since its last earnings update just a month ago.
Digital ad spend goes quicker than local TV and radio following shortly after.
National TV was much later, and ad agency spend was also later than cycle media buying.
Roku and FuboTV will be hardest hit initially. The length and depth of the recessionary slowdown will determine whether or not pain makes its way to the longer cycle areas of the ad market.
In its first-quarter earnings disclosure in April, Snapchat’s daily active users hit 332 million, an increase from 319 million at the end of 2021.
Snap accounts for only a small low-single digit percentage of total digital advertising, but the macro factors cited should be relevant for all companies.
I believe the read-through is most negative for Twitter, which is 75% dependent on brand ad revenue and has 15-20% exposure to Europe.
Facebook also has significant European exposure (25% of its ad revenue), though its brand advertising exposure is likely well under 25%.
The Nasdaq continues to be a sell the rally type of market because there are no dip buyers.
For years, the dip buyers would save the Nasdaq.
Not only that, but the widespread destruction of tech has also forced many big whales to sit on the sidelines.
Why buy now when the risk reward isn’t favorable?
So now we are headed to a recession and traders are waiting for the recessionary data to flow to confirm these Snap earnings.
If this occurs, don’t be surprised to see a negative feedback loop that triggers algorithms to sell.
The Fed still hasn’t nearly been aggressive enough as well and is selling this false belief that there won’t be a recession and the consumer is strong.
That is yet to be priced into technology shares.
The upcoming data will reflect that the opposite is happening which means the buyer strike continues.
Avoid the dip and sell the rip.
“A.I. is probably the most important thing humanity has ever worked on.” – Said Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai
Global Market Comments
May 25, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE RIGHT NOW)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 24, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM A BORING BIOTECH TO A TRAILBLAZING PIONEER)
(VRTX), (ABBV), (MRNA), (CRSP), (EDIT), (BEAM), (NTLA)
When will the turmoil in the stock market come to an end? Unfortunately, nobody can offer a definitive answer.
At this point, there’s still no end in sight to high inflation, climbing interest rates, and the continuing war in Ukraine.
Needless to say, all these issues are affecting the stock market. However, not all stocks are getting negatively affected by the turmoil.
There are still relatively safe bets to buy, with some crushing the market these days.
One of them is Vertex (VRTX).
Vertex stock soared by over 30% year-to-date by mid-April.
While it has given up some of that gain in the past weeks, this biotechnology and healthcare stock is comfortably outperforming the rest of the market, with its shares still up by around 15%.
One reason for Vertex’s good performance is its undisputed monopoly in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market. In fact, its closest potential competitor is AbbVie (ABBV), which recently announced disappointing results for its Phase 2 trials for a CF combo.
This means Vertex’s dominance in the CF space is set to go on for quite some time.
Here’s a bit of background. Vertex has 4 CF treatments.
Among these, the latest treatment, Trikafta, generates the lion’s share of the profits. It raked in $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2022 alone, with the total revenue for the entire CF pipeline recording $2 billion.
Considering its approved indications and potential approvals, Trikafta is anticipated to treat 90% of the entire CF patient population.
Looking at its current performance and how strong its hold is in the CF market, it appears that Vertex’s prediction that it can sustain its dominance in this segment until at least the late 2030s will be proven right.
Moreover, it’s evident that Trikafta has yet to reach its peak revenue. However, Vertex isn’t depending on this particular treatment alone.
Rather, the company is working on developing a worthy competitor to this top-selling treatment.
That is, Vertex is working on a CF candidate that may potentially be even more effective than Trikafta.
So far, this new drug candidate not only has the capacity to beat Trikafta in terms of efficacy but also offers a more convenient option.
Trikafta is a twice-a-day oral drug that comes in the form of 3 tablets. Meanwhile, this potential competitor is a once-a-day alternative.
If everything goes according to plan, the Phase 3 trial for this Trikafta challenger could start by the end of 2022 or early 2023.
This means that the closest potential rival for the company’s top-selling treatment is its own candidate.
Apart from this, Vertex is working with Moderna (MRNA) to come up with an mRNA therapy for CF patients.
The goal is to offer an alternative option to patients who are not eligible for the current CF therapies.
Although this continued dominance in the CF sector is already a good enough reason to buy Vertex shares, they may be an even better one.
To date, Vertex has at least 6 programs queued in mid to late-stage clinical studies, all of which are projected to become multi-billion dollar revenue streams.
Outside its CF segment, Vertex could have another big winner in the form of gene-editing treatment CTX001.
This is a treatment for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia that the company has been working on with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).
While CTX001 is promising, it won’t be entering the gene therapy market without any competition. It has to battle the likes of Editas (EDIT), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), and Intellia (NTLA).
Nonetheless, CTX001, if approved, is a game-changer because it is developed as a one-time cure for genetic blood disorders.
So far, trial results have been positive, and the collaborating duo is expected to file for regulatory approval by the end of 2022 and possibly launch the product by the first half of 2023.
This gene-editing therapy is a significant milestone for Vertex, with CTX001 expected to become another blockbuster, raking in roughly $1 billion in annual sales for the company even after giving CRISPR its share of the profits.
Recently, Vertex added another $900 million to its collaboration with CRISPR to boost its share from 50% to 60%, indicating that it values CTX001 at roughly $10 billion.
Other critical treatments outside the CF space are VX548, an opioid alternative targeting acute pain, and VX800, a stem cell-derived therapy developed to treat Type 1 diabetes.
Vertex has been accused as a company scared of getting out of its comfort zone for quite some time.
With these new ventures, Vertex has become something of a pioneer—a strategy that is projected to open long-term and lucrative revenue streams for the company.
Overall, all these efforts paint an obvious picture. That is, Vertex is a well-balanced company with a main business that capably and reliably generates billions and is complemented by an exciting pipeline that holds the potential to replicate the success of its already established portfolio.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 24, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(EUROPE IS ANTI-CRYPTO)
(BTC), (ECB)
President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde will never allow crypto to flourish on her watch and will do everything in her power to make sure it fails inside Europe.
Lagarde is part of the global establishment of low rates and “transitory” inflation that turned out to be 100% wrong.
But like many of these global bureaucrats that often fail miserably, their reward is to continue the same job since the only person who can fire her is herself.
Lately, Largarde shut down any notion that her fellow colleagues at the ECB should get a raise tied to the 8.5% inflation running through the European economy.
She has zero compassion for the median European worker to say the least.
As bad as US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell has performed, Lagarde outdoes him by quite a distance.
Europe still has 0% rates and has only just acknowledged that they might have to raise rates this summer.
So it’s no surprise this Davos trotting Bank President who wears a $10,000 scarf to her interviews takes every chance to criticize the existence of crypto.
Largarde’s view is crypto is “worth nothing. It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety.”
She added that she’s worried about people speculating on cryptocurrencies with their life savings as they may not be aware of the risks.
This remark is ironic since Lagarde is doing her best to bankrupt the European middle class to the point where they have nothing either.
Her remarks come amid recent turmoil in crypto markets, which have shed over $1 trillion in value over the past six months.
In short, this crypto industry figures to be either an American-dominated industry in the future or nothing at all because the rest of the developed world isn’t in tune with the idea that crypto will be a big part of our lives in the future.
Granted, Lagarde bashing on crypto makes her look like an enforcer right at the moment when many have lost their life savings because of the poor performance of Bitcoin.
The EU elite and Largarde despise crypto because it threatens to undermine their money-printing scam - which they use to steal from savers in order to bankroll their ever-closer union agenda.
This is at the same time the ECB has printed the Euro to oblivion and actively debasing Largarde’s own currency.
Every fiat has gone to zero over time and Lagarde will be looked at in history as one of the accelerators of this concept.
Lagarde’s bashing of crypto is a distraction from her own European Ponzi scheme of all time is: the current fiat financial system. Debt is issued daily to pay off past debt. A cycle they can’t break and count on the general public being too financial-illiterate to catch on too.
Lagarde's financial view is highly negative crypto because crypto performs terribly in hyperinflationary environments and is awful when the people in power want to ban it.
The price of Bitcoin is going to$20,000.
“My goal wasn't to make a ton of money. It was to build good computers.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Wozniak
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