Global Market Comments
June 9, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT THE HECK IS ESG INVESTING?),
(TSLA), (FSLR), (TAN), (MO)
Global Market Comments
June 9, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT THE HECK IS ESG INVESTING?),
(TSLA), (FSLR), (TAN), (MO)
It’s truly astonishing how much money is pouring into ESG investing. Maybe it was another year of blistering heat worldwide that did it. It now accounts for one-third of all US equity investments.
In 2020, BlackRock, one of the largest fund managers in the country, made a major new commitment to ESG investment by rolling out several new ETFs. I thought I’d better take him seriously, as his firm is one of the largest money managers in the world with $10 trillion in assets.
So what the heck is ESG investing?
Environmental, Social, and Governance Investing (ESG) seeks to address climate change in any way shape or form possible. Its goal is to move the economy and capital away from carbon-based energy forms, like oil (USO), natural gas (UNG), and coal, to any kind of alternative.
I am always suspicious of investment themes are politically correct and ideologically directed, as they usually end in tears. I can’t tell you how many people I know who invested their life savings in solar companies to save the world, like Solyndra, Sungevity, American Solar Direct, and Suniva, only to get wiped out when they went under.
As laudable as the goals of these companies may have been, they were unable to deal with collapsing prices, Chinese dumping, and the harsh realities of doing business in a cutthroat competitive world.
As a venture capital friend of mine once told me, “Technology is a bakery business”. If you can’t sell your products immediately, you go broke. Technology always drops prices dramatically and if you can’t stay ahead of the curve you don’t stand a chance.
Still, what I believe is not important. The fastest-growing group of new investors in the market today are Millennials, and they happen to take ESG investing very seriously.
There does seem to be a method to BlackRock’s madness. Over the past year, ESG-influenced funds have grown from 1% to 3.6% of total investment. Other major fund families like Vanguard have already jumped on the bandwagon.
ESG can include a panoply of activities, including, recycling, climate change mitigation, carbon footprint reduction, water purification, green infrastructure, environmental benefits for employees, and greenhouse gas reduction. There are many more.
There is even an ESG rating system for funds and companies produced by firms like Refinitiv, which scores 7,000 companies around the world based on their environmental sensitivity. Companies like United Utilities Group PLC, the UK’s largest water company, get an A+, while China’s Guangdong Investment Ltd, which supplies water and energy to Hong Kong, gets a D-.
It goes without saying that companies from emerging nations tend to score very poorly. So do manufacturing companies relative to service ones, and energy companies versus non-energy ones.
The ESG concept began in 2005 when UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan wrote to 50 global CEOs urging them to take climate change seriously. A major report by Ivor Knoepfel followed a year later entitled “Who Cares Wins.”
The report made the case that embedding environmental, social and governance factors in capital markets makes good business sense and leads to more sustainable markets and better outcomes for societies. The snowball has been rolling ever since.
Themed investing is not new. “Sin” stocks have long been investment pariahs, including alcohol and tobacco companies. As a result, these companies trade at permanently low multiples. The newest investment ban is on firearms-related companies.
ESG investment received a major tailwind in 2021 when the price of oil took off like a rocket. When oil prices rise, it also makes all forms of alternative energy more competitive. But over production by US fracking companies will eventually cause supply gluts that will lead to chronically lower prices. The US happens to have a new 200-year supply of oil and gas, thanks to the fracking revolution.
Saudi Arabia floated their oil monopoly, Saudi ARAMCO, raising a record $26 billion. When Saudi Arabia wants to get out of the oil and gas business, so should you. It’s not because they can’t think of new ways to spend money that they’re unloading it.
That’s why I have been advising followers to avoid energy investments like the plague for the past decade. It’s just a matter of time before alternatives rule the world. Even the oil industry won’t expand production now because they don’t want to buy at the top only to see prices collapse, as they have done many times in the past.
Who is the greenest company in America? That would be electric car and autonomous driving firm Tesla (TSLA). Perhaps ESG investing helps explain why the shares have risen 400 times since I started buying.
What is the top-performing listed stock of the last 30 years? Tobacco company Altria Group (MO), the old Philip Morris.
It’s proof that investment shaming doesn’t always work.
“Sometimes, when you jump off a bridge, you have to grow your wings on the way down,” said author Danielle Steele.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 8, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE ULTIMATUM)
(TSLA), (TWTR)
Founder and CEO of Tesla (TSLA) Elon Musk is clearly either angling for a cheaper purchase price for Twitter (TWTR) or is ready to walk away from the deal.
Even if he does walk away from the deal, he was able to sell Tesla shares at elevated prices, then rolling the capital into Twitter shares, and that in itself is worth more than $1 billion.
If you haven’t kept up with what’s happening, Tesla shares have fallen quite substantially, about 35% to be precise, since Musk unloaded those shares.
Around 35% of the $8.5 billion in Tesla shares by Musk would amount to around $3 billion and if he is forced to pay that $1 billion walkaway fee then he would still gain $2 billion net from his antics.
He is literally playing with house money at this point.
Aside from the actual deal, the global exposure of this deal to his own brand is worth over $15 billion in itself as everyone has been zoned in on this drama because of simple palace intrigue.
The $1 billion he would pay to walk away would also drum up another tsunami of media exposure for Tesla, Space X, Starlink, and Musk.
Musk treating this as his own Johnny Depp versus Amber Heard case is stimulating the media algorithms to push his name into every corner of the global media world so who cares about the $1 billion.
In short, Musk is already a winner, and if he can parlay this bot angle into a 30% discount on Twitter then that would be some epic showmanship while living on the edge.
He would be really making his cake and eating it too.
Musk has also become highly sensitive to how the social media world operates in which usually the loudest and most frequent poster usually is heard first and clearest.
He’s taken that strategy by posting on Twitter relentlessly and often about highly controversial content just so the media talk about him.
He’s not far away from every 24-hour news cycle at this point.
The Twitter sale agreement does allow Musk to get out of the deal if Twitter causes a “material adverse effect,” defined as a change that negatively affects Twitter’s business or financial conditions.
That's one reason Musk may be focusing on the spam bot problem — though he waived many of his rights to peek under Twitter's hood when he signed the deal.
Bots are basically programs that post automated tweets but have been systematically weaponized in the era of the internet.
Musk says it’s also a problem for advertisers who take out ads on the platform based on how many real people they expect to reach.
Musk wants to be compensated by the Twitter “bot” problem with either a lower Twitter price or the opportunity to walk away for free.
If the deal doesn’t go through, there is a high chance that Twitter shareholders sue the Twitter board for going against their fiduciary duty.
While I can easily see the Twitter board suing Musk while he countersues if he decides to walk away and doesn’t pay the $1 billion termination fee.
It would be a lawyer’s dream and a businessman can afford this if you’re the richest one in the world.
The market sensing Musk might not go through with the deal means that Tesla shares are free to rock higher and Twitter shares could sink.
Musk’s Twitter circus doesn’t affect Tesla’s real business itself.
Twitter has many internal problems along with terrible management and Musk has done everything he can to expose its hypocrisy.
If this deal completely turns sour, expect Twitter shares to tank big time, meaning like a halving.
Personally, I wouldn’t touch Twitter shares with a 10-foot pole.
“The car business is hell,” said founder Elon Musk, when announcing he would sleep in the Fremont Tesla factory until Model S production reached 2,500 units a week.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
June 8, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, JUNE 17 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)
(SPY), (TLT)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Monday, June 20, 2022. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $249.
I’ll be arriving at 11:30 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square, details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
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