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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Here We Come Vietnam

Tech Letter

There is definitely jet fuel left in Apple’s (AAPL) tank.

I guarantee it.

I like some of their recent moves, like today when they announced that they are in talks with Vietnam for the Apple Watch and MacBook to be produced in the country.

Cutting the China risk is a big deal.

The lockdown-obsessed country is a terrible place to headquarter manufacturing operations.

Apple has deadlines to meet and shareholder value to accrue, and that’s not going to cut it when the government doesn’t allow workers to work.

Vietnam’s government and Apple most likely have a wink, wink – nod, nod agreement to chill on the overbearing lockdowns, otherwise, I cannot fathom why they would move from one lockdown-prone country to another one.

Maybe Apple management just like the Vietnamese spring rolls over the Chinese, but I bet most unlikely.

Oh yeh, almost forgot about the tax breaks, Vietnam most likely will load those up to the eyeballs to convince Apple to put factories there.

Brand name companies don’t put their resources in Podunk places for free.

Another bright spot in Apple is the massive stock buyback and large dividend.

Must love a tech company that rewards shareholders and that’s why Warren Buffet loves this gravy train.

Next, the biggest fish in the largest body of water is still churning out its prized iPhone.

Now we are onto number 14 coming to you later this winter!

Demand for the iPhone remains strong. During Apple's third quarter, revenue from this segment rose 2.8% to $40.7 billion.

Selling more iPhones isn't just a matter of generating revenue for Apple. It also helps the company grow its installed base, provided a customer not previously part of Apple's network purchases a new device. That seems to be at least part of the story, as Apple reported that its installed base reached all-time highs across all its products during its latest quarter.

The long-run implications of these developments are significant. The more people are plugged into Apple's services network, the more it can monetize these users, and the more it can grow its services revenue. During Apple's third quarter, the tech giant's services segment grew faster than the rest of its business, recording total sales of $19.6 billion, 12.1% higher than the year-ago period.

This segues nicely to more eyeballs viewing Apple ads. The annual $4 billion ad business will get upgraded as Apple plans to post more ads around its ecosystem. Ad buyers will be chomping at the bit to flood Apple’s network with ads galore. I see this as a great move to add strength to the balance sheet.

The consumer is still consuming. The top 39% of US income earners who are exposed to the stock market are responsible for 65% of consumption so it is a chicken and egg thing…they will feel like they have the license to spend because they feel wealthier.

That’s what I like because the people who cannot even afford iPhones, won’t buy the iPhone 14 and never had a chance to buy an iPhone when they are shopping at the Dollar store.

There will be zero churn here in iPhone usage and I would argue that the attrition rate becomes healthier.

True, I saw that report from Walmart about higher-income families more concerned about rising prices, but this doesn’t mean their budget will exclude the iPhone 14.

Many of these higher-income families need the iPhone 14 for work purposes and many of them have work-from-home jobs where they need an Apple device always glued to their face.

The Apple monster should keep chugging along, and out of all tech companies, this is the one to ride to profits.

 

apple vietnam

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-17 09:02:202022-08-31 02:29:51Here We Come Vietnam
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 17, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“Intellectual property has the shelf life of a banana.” – Said Co-Founder of Microsoft Bill Gates

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/bill-gates-3.png 245 200 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-17 09:00:302022-08-17 17:44:40August 17, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 16, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A FAIL-SAFE HEALTHCARE STOCK FOR PATIENT INVESTORS)
(JNJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 17:02:512022-08-16 17:47:58August 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Fail-Safe Healthcare Stock for Patient Investors

Biotech Letter

Warren Buffett is arguably one of the most celebrated investing minds in history. In the 57 years that the Oracle of Omaha was hailed as the leader of Berkshire, the business’ Class A shares (BRK.A0 grew 3,641,613% through December 31, 2021.

In fact, his company has been outperforming the broader market by leaps and bounds that even if Berkshire’s shares fall 99% tomorrow, it would still be ahead of the S&P 500—an achievement it has been celebrating since 1965.

While there’s a long list of factors behind Buffett’s long-running success, his preference for relatively safe businesses serves as one of the foundations of Berkshire’s superior and stable returns.

One of the companies in Berkshire’s portfolio is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Although it comprises only 0.02% of Buffett’s holdings, JNJ represents the steady and long-term holdings the Oracle has been known to chase.

Since August 2012, the company’s trailing-12-month net profit has climbed by 116%, exceeding $18.3 billion. To hit that mark, JNJ creates and markets a slew of products and treatments alongside medical devices and consumer health staples such as Tylenol and Sudafed.

It’s highly probable that JNJ’s stable track record of growth and success in expanding and diversifying its portfolio year after year is what lured Buffett to invest in the company.

JNJ’s operating segments hold a vital role in its growth as well. Although marketing brand-name pharmaceuticals comprise the majority of JNJ’s operating and growth margins, the reality is that brand-name products can only hold on to a finite period of exclusivity in sales.

To counter the issues involving patent cliffs, JNJ has implemented a myriad of tactics. For instance, it can rely on its top-performing medical device segment to help augment the loss of income.
For JNJ, when one door closes, another door or a group of doors tend to open.

Unlike most businesses that attract Buffett, which have wide economic moats, JNJ’s significant competitive edges rely on its sheer size compared to its rivals and the brand recognition attached to most of its products.

Nevertheless, a considerable part of its lineup speaks volumes in terms of highlighting Buffett’s preference for businesses that allow him to generate income without necessitating additional investments in development.

If you really think about it, you’ve likely purchased Tylenol or Listerine mouthwash several times in your life. The formulas have not been modified or changed that much, and neither has JNJ’s unit economics when it comes to manufacturing them.

Another factor that makes JNJ an excellent company is its continuity in operations. Keep in mind that this company has been in business for 136 years, and within that period, it only had 10 CEOs. Possessing continuity in critical leadership roles has guaranteed that strategic goals are constantly met.

On top of these, JNJ is one of the most financially sound—if not the most economically sound—publicly traded companies in the world. It has boosted its base annual dividend consistently over the past 60 years. It is recognized as one of the only two publicly traded companies with the highest credit rating (AAA) awarded by Standard & Poor.

Moreover, JNJ is a thriving healthcare stock.

Healthcare stocks are one of the most stable investments since they are defensive. Regardless of the economy and stock market performance, people will continue to buy prescription medicine, use medical devices, and avail of healthcare services. Therefore, this puts minimal demand on healthcare stocks. We do not stop getting sick or going to hospitals because Wall Street hits a roadblock.

Overall, JNJ is an excellent, safe, and reliable long-term investment. While it has not outperformed the broader market in the past 10 years, the business brings joy to its shareholders by steadily paying and boosting its dividend.

There’s a catch here, though. Buying a stock like JNJ signifies your willingness to hold it for years. Hence, this is a business for patient investors only.

 

jnj buffett

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 17:00:492022-08-27 02:16:43A Fail-Safe Healthcare Stock for Patient Investors
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 16, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
August 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ADOPTION IN ARGENTINA)
($BTCUSD), (WMT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 16:04:332022-08-16 17:32:38August 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Adoption in Argentina

Bitcoin Letter

Just a short time ago, the South American country Argentina began the 20th Century as one of the ten richest countries in the world.

Its ranking in the world wasn’t that bad, comparable to that of, say, Germany today.

It had a per capita income much higher than that of Japan and Belgium and comparable to that of France.

However, that was then, and this is now.

Argentina has turned into a banana republic where a government filled with incapable politicians has grounded the country.

How did this dramatic change come about?

Well, that’s for historians to debate and I’m not a historian, but let’s talk about the current, now, and present about the dire Argentinian financial situation.

Argentina’s annual inflation surged past 70% last month at one of the fastest rates in the world after renewed political turmoil fueled price spikes and a currency rout.

It even beat Turkey out in the inflation Olympics.

Consumer prices rose 71% in July from a year ago, the highest level in about 30 years, according to government data published Thursday.

Skyrocketing prices pushed Argentina’s central bank to lift rates earlier in the day by the most in three years, raising central bank rates by 9.5% to 69.5%.

It signaled a tougher monetary stance against inflation, following another large rate hike just two weeks ago. Policymakers had been only raising rates once a month previously.

All the political turmoil added volatility to an already unstable outlook, with the black-market peso losing about 15% of its value in the month and local businesses jacking up prices 20% overnight.

To signal a tougher stance on inflation, the central bank committed to stop printing more money to finance government spending — a key factor driving inflation — for the rest of the year. However, other policies, such as removing subsidies on utility bills to improve the fiscal balance, stand to keep price increases high in the near term.

Consensus has it that inflation could break the threshold of 100% by the end of the year.

I’m not going to champion Bitcoin and crypto as the greatest thing since sliced bread.

It’s not and it’s a work in progress.

There is still a high chance that this iteration of crypto isn’t the final version of what goes mainstream.

There are just too many variables to know what will happen.

However, Argentina and its financial situation is a country that is screaming to adopt Bitcoin.

Nominally, consumers start to really suffer psychological damage when inflation and prices start climbing 25% per year.

Anything past 30% is a time when crypto really needs to be looked at by Argentinians and whoever is in a similar situation in whatever country they are in.

The chaos down south shows what could become of irresponsible financial policy down the road to rich, Western countries.

The hard cold truth is that 9.1% inflation in the United States isn’t that bad.

The Rubicon will not be crossed at these levels.  

I would argue that American consumers could easily handle inflation at 20%.

Granted, the upper-middle class will start shopping at Walmart (WMT) and the Walmart shoppers will start shopping at the dollar store, but Americans can handle it.

In a broad sense, the use case for Bitcoin is really starting to become attractive in countries like Argentina, because when the government throws fiat currency under the bus like the Argentinian government, there really is no alternative but Bitcoin.

9.1% inflation is nowhere near risky when other sovereign nations are close to 100% year-over-year.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 16:02:282022-08-16 17:33:11Adoption in Argentina
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - August 16, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“What is not started will never get finished.”- Said German Poet Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/goethe.png 610 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 16:00:252022-08-16 17:30:49Quote of the Day - August 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 16, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 16, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, AUGUST 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TLT), (TSLA),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 10:04:422022-08-16 17:29:57August 16, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How to Handle the Friday, August 19 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Happy and newly enriched followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service have a couple of good fortune to own a record ten deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, February 18 at the stock market close in two days.

It is therefore time to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

These involve the:

(TSLA) 8/$500 put spread                     10.00%
(TLT) 8/123-$126 put spread          

Provided that we don’t have another 2,000-point move down in the market this week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.

So far, so good.

I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the United States US Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) $123-$126 vertical bear put debit spread. Since we are a massive $7.00 in the money with only three days left until expiration I will almost certainly will run into expiration.

Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $3.00 expiration value - $2.60 cost = $0.40 net profit

(40 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.40 profit per option)

= $1,600 or 15.38% in 21 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, August 22 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, August 19. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

 

The Options Expiration is Coming

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/wristwatch.jpg 331 441 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-16 10:02:132022-08-16 17:24:03How to Handle the Friday, August 19 Options Expiration
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 15, 2022

Tech Letter

 Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JUST LET IT FLOW)
(ADAM NEUMANN), (WE), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-08-15 16:04:132022-08-16 07:30:50August 15, 2022
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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