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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Don't Compromise

Tech Letter

A fresh analysis from the C-suite at the top 1,000 U.S. companies by revenue offers us critical insight into the direction of tech management.

It’s important to keep our finger on the pulse of what’s happening at the higher level of tech companies because these are the key people that drive the game-changing decisions.

It’s no surprise that the banking and financial services industry has the oldest average CEO age at 60, and the technology and energy sectors have the youngest CEOs at an average age of 57.

Technology companies harness new technologies that can lead to new businesses so that would usually trend younger.

Compared to other industries, tech companies also have a boom-bust element to them because technologies go extinct quicker, and refreshing a CEO is always on the table if the bust element creeps in.

Interestingly, the current tenure is down from an average of 8 years to 6 years, meaning that the leash for tech CEOs is getting shorter and shorter.

Much like highly paid professional athletes these days, there’s no learning on the job type of mentality. It’s overperform now or face the sack.

This mentality emphasizes short-term performance which revolves around the quarterly earnings report and stock-based compensation to employees.

Then add in the wild card of forced lockdowns and China’s increasingly aggressive attitude to politics and it’s simple to understand that boards need to quickly change management if they believe they cannot navigate these herculean tasks.

Just a few instances where critical decisions are being made can be seen in Apple when CEO Tim Cook yanked China production and moved factories to Vietnam.

Vietnam is becoming the new factory of the world for tech companies because costs and political risks associated with China are accelerating.

Now, throw in the Taiwan situation after top U.S. government officials chose to visit the island and tech companies are now worrying about their supply of Taiwan chips needed to harness artificial intelligence.

CFOs are usually the second most important person in a company behind the CEO because they guard the balance sheet and usually possess a strong accounting background.

Yet they can be disposed of quickly for bad performance which is why tech CFOs only tenure 4.1 years if we compare with other more stable industries.

The key findings here is that tech management has never been so prone to high turnover.

Due to the internet, competition has supercharged the fight for highly paid positions and data can be calculated in real time because of superior analytic platforms.

Management won’t be able to hide poor performance because of the close tracking.

As much as it’s difficult to make a famous name as a C-suite manager, tech CEOs with a proven track record can expect elevated attention which is why if guys who have built successful tech firms like Jack Dorsey reach out to investors, they will get whatever starting funds they need.

This builds on the winning take mentality in technology which has a few outsized winners among the crowd.

On the trading front, I would hesitate to buy tech stocks from management that is unproven.

I would urge traders to go into long-term bets on guys like Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, and Elon Musk and don’t compromise on the quality of tech management because it makes a big difference in the future price of the stock.

 

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 2, 2022 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“It's OK to have your eggs in one basket as long as you control what happens to that basket.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/phil-knight.png 596 430 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-02 15:00:212022-09-02 17:39:22September 2, 2022 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 2, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 2, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(GET READY TO TAKE A LEAP BACK INTO LEAPS),
(AAPL)
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-02 10:06:502022-09-02 13:44:22September 2, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Just as every cloud has a silver lining, every stock market crash offers generational opportunities.

September and October are now upon us, for the past 100 years, the two worst trading months of the year. That means they are also the best months for entering spectacular trades with LEAPS.

What are LEAPS you make ask?

This is the best strategy with which to cash in on the gigantic market swoons, which have become a regular feature of our markets, especially in 2022.

LEAPS, or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities, are just a fancy name for a stock option spread with a maturity of more than one year.

You execute orders for these securities on your options online trading platform, pay options commissions, and endure options like volatility.

Another way of describing LEAPS is that they offer a way to rent stocks instead of buying them, with the prospect of enjoying years’ worth of stock gains for a fraction of the price.

While these are highly leveraged instruments, you can’t lose any more money than you put into them. Your risk is well defined. But you get 10X or more exposure to the stock. They are kind of like synthetic futures on individual stocks.

And there are many companies in the market where LEAPS is a very good idea, especially on those gut-wrenching 1,000-point down days.

Interested?

Currently, LEAPS are listed all the way out until January 2025.

However, the further expiration dates will have far less liquidity than near-month options, so they are not a great short-term trading vehicle. That is why limit orders in LEAPS, as opposed to market orders, are crucial.

These are really for your buy-and-forget investment portfolio, defined benefit plan, 401k, or IRA.

Because of the long maturities, premiums can be enormous. However, there is more than one way to skin a cat, and the profit opportunities here can be astronomical.

Like all options contracts, a LEAPS gives its owner the right to "exercise" the option to buy or sell 100 shares of stock at a set price for a given time.

LEAPS have been around since 1990, and trade on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

To participate, you need an options account with a brokerage house, an easy process that mainly involves acknowledging the risk disclosures that no one ever reads.

If a LEAPS expires "out-of-the-money" – when exercising, you can lose all the money that was spent on the premium to buy it. There's no toughing it out waiting for a recovery, as with actual shares of stock. Poof, and your money is gone.

LEAPS are also offered on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track indices like the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU), so you could bet on up or down moves of the broad market.

One of my most profitable trades in 2021 was the (TLT) December 2022 $$150-$155 vertical bear put LEAPS, which generated a 100% profit for everyone who got into it. Those who bought the more aggressive (TLT) December 2022 $$140-$145 vertical bear put LEAPS made 200%.

I see you’re still interested. For example, the highly popular ProShares 2X Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) only offers maturities out only six months so it is not possible to do a proper LEAPS. No one is willing to take the risk on the other side of this highly volatile security.

Not all stocks have options, and not all stocks with ordinary options also offer LEAPS.

Note that a LEAPS owner does not vote proxies or receive dividends because the underlying stock is owned by the seller, or "writer," of the LEAPS contract until the LEAPS owner exercises.

Despite the Wild West image of options, LEAPS are actually ideal for the right type of conservative investor.

They offer more margin and more efficient use of capital than traditional broker margin accounts. And you don’t have to pay the usurious interest rates that margin accounts usually charge.

And for a moderate increase in risk, they present outsized profit opportunities.

For the right investor, they are the ideal instrument.

Let me go through some examples to show you their inner beauty.

By now, you should all know what vertical bull call spreads are. If you don’t, then please click here for a quickie video tutorial (you must be logged in to your account).

Let’s go back to February 9, 2018 when the Dow Average plunged to its 23,800 low for the year. I then begged you to buy the Apple (AAPL) June 2018 $130-$140 call spread at $8.10, which most of you did. A month later, that position is worth $9.40, up some 16.04%. Not bad.

Now let’s say that instead of buying a spread four months out, you went for the full year and three months, to June 2019.

That identical (AAPL) $130-$140 would have cost $5.50 on February 9. The spread would be worth $9.40 today, up 70.90%, and worth $10 on June 21, 2019, up 81.81%.

So, by holding a 15-month to expiration position for only a month, you get to collect 86.67% of the maximum potential profit of the position.

So, now you know why we leap into LEAPS.

When the meltdown comes, and that could be as soon as next week, use this strategy to jump into longer term positions in the names we have been recommending and you should be able to retire early.

Now you know why I like LEAPS so much. Please play around with the names and the numbers and I’m sure you will find something you like. But remember one thing. LEAPS are only a trade to consider at long time market bottoms, not tops!

They are also the perfect positions to own if you believe we have just entered a second Roaring Twenties and a second American Golden Age, as I do.

 

Time to Leap Into LEAPS

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/leap.png 450 372 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-02 10:04:022022-09-02 11:15:50Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into LEAPS
Arthur Henry

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Dear John,

I hope you remember me. We once met at a luncheon in Paris a number of summers ago.

Thank you for the suggestion you made during the January 31 webinar about the launch of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter. After the first issue, I bought Micron Technology (MU).

I bought two July $39 Calls for $7.80 and two January 2019 $37 Calls for $11.40. On February 26, I sold one of the July calls for $11.00 (+40.7%) and today the second for $15.70 (+100.0%) for a total profit of $1,105.51.

I still have an unrealized profit of $1,718 on the January 2019 calls.  So, if I sell those now, I will have earned $2000 with this trade.

We once met at a very scarcely attended luncheon in Paris a number of summers ago.

Kind regards,

Dirk
Belgium

John Thomas reply: Good work Dirk! Let’s meet in Paris again for lunch this July.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/stats.png 139 899 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2022-09-02 10:02:012022-09-02 11:14:39Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 1, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE CRYPTO SILVER LINING)
(BTC

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-01 16:04:112022-09-01 17:02:51September 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Crypto Silver Lining

Bitcoin Letter

In the short-term, the price of Bitcoin is at the mercy of the macro events, and throwing fuel on the fire is the rumor on many prominent social media platforms circulating of the return of Mt. Gox funds which were due for release to creditors on Aug. 28.

This unsubstantiated claim would drop a bucketful of liquidity onto the market suppressing the price of crypto in the short term.

Claims varied widely at the time of writing, with some believing that a tranche of 137,000 BTC was set for release in one go. Others said that funds would be sent piecemeal, but that payouts would nonetheless begin this weekend.

Mt. Gox shuttered 10 years ago and following a lengthy legal procedure, the appointed rehabilitation trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, announced on July 6 that he was "preparing to make repayments" to creditors.

In documentation at the time, Kobayashi gave “the end of August” as a reference period during which some initial payments might begin.

The kneejerk reaction was most likely premature, but the evidence of added liquidity will be evident to the market pricing whenever the event occurs.

Lately, Bitcoin and crypto have been faced with a barrage of negative news and it’s almost like Groundhog Day.

The aggregation of these events is evident that Bitcoin hasn’t found a bottom yet.

One of the most prominent Bitcoin cheerleaders was in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Former CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor is getting sued for not paying income taxes.

The lawsuit alleges that Saylor has resided in the District of Columbia for more than a decade without paying DC income taxes. The suit says he avoided income taxes by fraudulently claiming to be a resident of other, lower-tax jurisdictions.

Saylor, who recently stepped down as the CEO of MicroStrategy, said in a statement that he moved his home to Miami Beach from Virginia a decade ago.

The lawsuit also named MicroStrategy as a defendant, accusing the Northern Virginia-based company of collaborating with Saylor to dodge taxes.

It’s unfortunate that the biggest media face in crypto is slowly evoking the image of a charlatan.

Saylor resigning from MSTR can also be viewed as his quitting bitcoin or cashing out before it gets bad.

When the tide comes in, we see who is swimming naked.

Crypto has shown itself to be a marginal industry unprepared for show time.

It has a lot of mending to do from the exchanges, infrastructure, and trust.

It will take time before Bitcoin gets its time in the sun, but for now, it will unequivocally position itself at the end of the spectrum for all risk assets just below unprofitable and undesirable tech stocks.

That’s not a great position to be in, but I do believe if the industry can hang on until interest rates start to reverse, the backdrop starts to turn from unfavorable to favorable.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/bitcoin-1-e1661450634639.png 229 500 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-01 16:02:052022-09-01 17:02:28The Crypto Silver Lining
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - September 1, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“Competition brings out the best in products and the worst in people.”  —  Said American Businessman David Sarnoff

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/david-sarnoff.png 630 426 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-01 16:00:592022-09-01 17:02:16Quote of the Day - September 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 1, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A QUALITY HEALTHCARE STOCK IN A JAM)
(BMY), (JNJ), (RHHBY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-01 15:02:492022-09-01 14:06:24September 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Quality Healthcare Stock in a Jam

Biotech Letter

Sometimes the market overreacts, and it presents a buying opportunity for savvy investors. This is what happened with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).

Investors pulled back on BMY shares following mixed results from the Phase 2 trials of Milvexian, a stroke therapy the biopharmaceutical giant is developing with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

This treatment works as an anticoagulant formulated to prevent secondary strokes that usually occur after an ischemic stroke.

Ischemic strokes are the most common kind of strokes, triggered when a blood clot blocks an artery heading to the brain.

In its trial, Milvexian showed that it was able to lower the recurrence of ischemic strokes by 30% among patients who exhibited symptoms.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t able to show any effect on the smaller lesions typically detected only via MRIs. This is where the problem lies since the latter was part of the predefined endpoints when the trials started.

So, in terms of reducing symptomatic stroke, Milvexian’s results were “very positive.” But if you consider all the factors, then you get mixed data.

The underwhelming results of Milvexian’s Phase 2 trials led to a 5.5% fall in BMY’s shares, clearly demonstrating the erosion of investor confidence going into Phase 3.

What does this mean?

Milvexian was designed to become the successor of BMY’s mega-blockbuster Eliquis. BMY’s shares are declining because of the fear over the effectiveness of the company’s strategy to power through upcoming patent losses.

Despite the setback, BMY and JNJ aren’t giving up on the treatment. Apart from the 30% risk reduction it offers patients, Milvexian has an impressive safety profile. Based on these results alone, the companies still consider the candidate a good product.

Moreover, the results do not appear to be affecting the overall performance and strategy of the company. Minor adjustments simply need to be made.

The pharma giant’s recent quarter report disclosed revenue of $11.9 billion, which climbed 2% year over year. Within its US market, BMY’s revenue grew by 12%.

The company is also continuously innovating. In early 2022, the FDA approved a new cancer treatment it developed, estimated to rake in $4 billion in peak sales.

It’s also consistent in terms of delivering results. BMY has been generating over $11 billion in revenue quarterly, with profits reaching 14% of sales during those periods.

These sound financials place BMY in a great position to expand and pay out its dividend, which is at 2.9% to date.

Year to date, BMY has been consistently and soundly beating the general markets. It has been up 19% compared to the 10% fall of the S&P 500 as of late.

Aside from developing potential successors, BMY has also been active in acquiring assets. Recently, it shelled out $13 billion to buy MyoKardia.

The deal enabled BMY to gain access to Camzyos, a prescription medicine used to treat adults with a heart condition called symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Camzyos recently gained approval and is estimated to reach $4 billion in peak sales annually.

BMY also recently acquired Turning Point Therapeutics for $4.1 billion to gain access to Repotrectinib, which is pegged as the next-generation oral treatment for lung cancer.

Given the drug’s data, it has the potential to competitively go head-to-head against Roche’s (RHHBY) Rozlytrek and rake in $1.5 billion in peak sales.

So, should investors start buying BMY shares following the clinical setback with Milvexian?

While Milvexian isn’t shaping up as the heir apparent for Eliquis, BMY still has a broad pipeline and portfolio of high-value treatments in the market and is under development.

In other words, BMY could easily shake off this setback. That means savvy investors may want to look into the stock and take advantage of this momentary weakness in the Big Pharma’s stock price.

After all, BMY is an excellent drugmaker that investors can rely on for long-term growth and dividend income.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-01 15:00:452022-09-01 14:06:57A Quality Healthcare Stock in a Jam
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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