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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Shine Has Been Wiped Off For Now

Tech Letter

Google – it’s not what it used to be.

The sacred Silicon Valley behemoth of technology is finally showing weakness.

Crazier things have happened.

In fact, Google recorded the lowest growth since 2013 and that goes well back when the US economy was picking up steam after the Great Recession.

Revenue growth slowed to 6% from 41% a year earlier as the company suffers from a continued downdraft in online ad spending.

The ramifications are quite large as it essentially means that in the short-term, the digital ad industry is impotent as we head straight for a 2023 recession.

I would say the most surprising part of the whole report was to see Google’s “growth” asset, YouTube, floundering at just 2% growth.

It’s still a $7 billion standalone business but to see that much of a decline was somewhat surprising.

Philipp Schindler, chief business officer for Google, said the company saw a pullback in spend on search ads from certain areas such as insurance, loans, mortgage, and cryptocurrencies.

The underperformance in numbers is yet another bad omen for ad tech companies and Snap was the canary of the coal mine when the stock dropped 28%.

Considering the disappointing tone of the industry now, it’s not shocking to see the CEO of Meta Mark Zuckerberg just ignore his entire Facebook business for the metaverse.

It’s that bad selling digital ads now.  

Google’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 24% year over year highlighting the challenges of running a large tech company during times of high interest rates and high inflation.

It’s a recipe for underperformance and we are seeing it in every part of Google’s business.

Maybe one of the only bright spots was the Google Cloud surging by 38%.

The cloud is one of the few growth drivers still left at Google.

The problem I have with Google is one that I have with many other big Silicon Valley tech firms.

They have become stagnated and too corporate.  

They aren’t the leaders of innovation they once were and have pretty much juiced out the cash cow business they possess whether it be Apple’s iPhone or Google’s search engine or Meta’s Facebook.  

The Silicon Valley bros aren’t immune from the rough times.

Long term, it’s hard to see Google becoming the growth engine they once were – a firm that consistently expanded 30% each quarter.  

In fact, what I see clearer now than before is the cannibalization of Silicon Valley.

These big firms are starting to behave in a way an investor can understand as a scarcity mindset.

When the pie is perceived as shrinking, companies will step on their toes to get that extra piece of the pie.

Many of these moves illustrate this new entrenched mentality whether it be Apple’s sensitivity to others using the Apple store or the inability to offer stock-based compensation to new employees.

And that’s if a company is still hiring, last time I checked, many tech firms have either frozen hiring or are deleting big swaths of employees.

The new acquirer of Twitter also plans to fire 75% of Twitter’s staff on Day 1 removing the Chief Diversity Officer and many of the frothy positions that don’t add much value.

Big tech needs a reset and this is just more confirmation that restructuring is needed badly.

 

google growth

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-26 14:02:312022-11-30 13:52:42The Shine Has Been Wiped Off For Now
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 26, 2022

Tech Letter

“Creativity is just connecting things.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/steve-jobs-e1631634374388.png 328 350 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-26 14:00:272022-10-26 14:56:48Quote of the Day - October 26, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (MSFT) October 26, 2022 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-26 10:38:582022-10-26 10:38:58Trade Alert - (MSFT) October 26, 2022 - BUY
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 26, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 26, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2022 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-26 09:04:092022-10-26 14:24:19October 26, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Friday, October 28, 2022 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, October 28. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $249.

I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. Those who live there already know what it is. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Lake-Tahoe.png 706 1186 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-26 09:02:232024-10-01 18:02:20SOLD OUT - Friday, October 28, 2022 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 25, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 25, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A FAIL-SAFE HEALTHCARE STOCK)
(JNJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 16:02:242022-10-25 17:14:30October 25, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Fail-Safe Healthcare Stock

Biotech Letter

What’s a clear indicator of a well-run business? It’s when customers across the globe can easily recognize your company’s brands.

It’s safe to state that practically everyone in the world knows at least one or two products in Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) portfolio.

Since the pandemic started and until now, when things remain uncertain and economic headwinds continue to befall the market, JNJ has proven itself to be virtually recession-resistant.

In fact, based on its third-quarter earnings report, JNJ is one of the handful of companies receiving short-term boosts. Amid the issues over inflation and supply chains, this healthcare company reported $23.8 billion in revenue, rising by 1.9%, and earnings per share of $1.68, up by 22.6%.

In the past 10 years, JNJ has boosted its revenue annually except in 2015.

The biopharmaceutical giant is also diligent in making sure its investors are happy. It has shelled out $2 billion in 2022 alone on share buybacks, with an additional $3 billion scheduled.

It has also paid out $3 billion worth of dividends to investors, with the market-proclaimed Dividend King raising its payout for 60 consecutive years.

As in the previous quarters, JNJ’s pharmaceutical business division delivered the most substantial sales gains, while its consumer health division struggled to overcome foreign currency woes.

Minor tweaks to JNJ’s guidance offered some color to the earnings report. The company narrowed its sales growth estimates and lowered its range for full-year revenue to somewhere between $93 billion and $93.5 billion, primarily due to the strong dollar. Nevertheless, the company’s adjusted earnings guidance remains the same, with anticipated operational gains.

Meanwhile, its plan to spin off its consumer health segment in 2023 into a new company called Kenvue has shareholders hopeful for an increase in the value of JNJ stock soon.

The plan to spin off this segment has been in the works for quite some time and is anticipated to enable JNJ to become a more profitable company in the long run.

While brands like Listerine, Band-Aid, and Benadryl have high name recall, the company’s consumer health segment remains a slow growing and has become a burden. Actually, these well-known brands only account for roughly 15.6% of the company’s $47.4 billion recorded in the first 6 months of 2022.

The true catalyst in JNJ’s growth is and will continue to be its pharmaceutical division. This segment includes the mega-blockbuster immunology treatment Stelara and the oncology drug Darzalex, both of which rake in at least $5 billion in sales every year.

JNJ also has 11 more drugs and its COVID-19 vaccine in its portfolio, which are all on pace to add a minimum of $1 billion in sales for this year.

Looking at its current portfolio and pipeline, JNJ is projected to record a 4.1% annual earnings growth in the next 5 years. On top of these, JNJ has 99 drug indications queued for clinical development across various therapy areas like oncology and immunology. These should offer the company more than enough firepower to bolster its sales and earnings higher gradually.

Coupling this earnings growth with JNJ’s dividend payout ratio at a reasonably 44%, then I can confidently say that the company’s 60-year dividend growth streak is on track. It’s also safe to project 5% to 6% annual dividend growth in the short term.

One of the critical principles in investing is to ensure that you are diversifying your portfolio not only in terms of the companies but also the sectors you put your money into.

This measure can help protect your portfolio and its income from headwinds in a particular industry at any given time.

Throughout the years, healthcare has proven to be a must-own segment. After all, everyone will require access to the healthcare system, whether for a routine checkup, prescription, or surgical procedure.

Moreover, the part of the global population needing more focused and frequent medical care—people aged 65 and older—is projected to nearly triple from 2015 to 2050 to record 1.6 billion individuals.

Considering these factors and the stability offered by JNJ, it’s easy to see how this company can become a lucrative long-term investment for those looking to diversify their portfolio. I strongly suggest buying the dip.

 

jnj portfolio

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 16:00:212022-11-30 13:23:24A Fail-Safe Healthcare Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 25, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 25, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SAVING CRYPTO)
(BTC), (KPMG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 15:04:102022-10-25 16:03:39October 25, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Saving Crypto

Bitcoin Letter

One can’t help but be appalled to see the former driver of global growth China turn radically inward, preferring a deeply authoritarian economic model.

What they had in the Hu Jin Tao years between 2002 to 2012 was legendary and might not ever happen again.

Friends of mine who have managed to flee China all mention how it was easier to leave before 2020.

Good luck now navigating Chinese lockdowns.

Authorities have made it impossible to leave and they track everything including a digital yuan now.

China and its backward economy have a lot of problems, and the more problems that add up nudge the people to a crypto solution.

I am not saying that every Chinese person will invest in crypto, but for the wealthy ones that usually immigrate to Singapore or Hong Kong, the data backs up my thesis.

KPMG accounting firm has indicated a colossal interest in the crypto market from the wealthy elite of Singapore and Hong Kong.

58% reported investments in crypto game while a further 34% intend to allocate funds to bitcoin, stablecoins, and ether, as well as decentralized finance (DeFi) opportunities.

KPMG only gathered responses from investors whose assets under management ranged between US$10 to $500 million. Of the 58% already invested in crypto:

100% held bitcoin,

87% disclosed ether,

60% bought NFTs and other metaverse tokens,

47% had DeFi tokens.

KPMG found interest in crypto has mainly been driven by prospects of high returns, portfolio diversification, and increased confidence in the market following institutional uptake.

It wasn’t all bullish, though, with respondents stating the industry needs more mature methodologies for valuing crypto, the lack of which has given some investors pause.

Wealthy investors are keen on crypto’s “store of wealth” proposition alongside decentralized finance.

Not to mention, most already invested only allocated 5% of their portfolio to the digital asset class, a figure dampened by uncertainty around regulations and accounting standards.

The good news is that there is a pathway that links rich Chinese to the future of crypto, but it’s largely contingent on if crypto can get its act together or not.

China is ramping up its control over money supply by implementing a digital yuan that they can delete and add to wallets any time they want.

This is really 1984 in its purest form.

As the crypto winter continues, there are indeed some silver linings.

However, crypto needs to be careful that it doesn’t turn into just another centralized version of what the Chinese are running away from.

Decentralization is hard to pull off in the long term as the government will want its cut.

Rome wasn’t built in one day.

 

crypto

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 15:02:082022-11-29 17:17:55Saving Crypto
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - October 25, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

“The biggest risk is not taking any risk.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/elon-musk.png 304 397 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 15:00:062022-10-25 16:03:16Quote of the Day - October 25, 2022
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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