Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEDIOCRE TECH FURNITURE)
(W)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEDIOCRE TECH FURNITURE)
(W)
As we gather up to steam to the December 13th CPI report, it is important to keep mindful of avoiding the tech traps out there.
Many tech companies are still worth their weight in gold but some aren’t.
The ones to ignore are specifically the zombie companies.
Low rates almost gave them a great excuse not to profit because back then, with low rates, they could just roll over debt and kick the can down the road.
Suddenly, in 2022, the unthinkable happened, and now profitability matters.
Zombie firms tapping debt markets can be a good thing, but doing so at elevated rates could topple their business model.
One company to stay vigilant about is digital furniture dealer Wayfair (W) whose business model and share price have been disproportionately damaged over the past year and a half.
Just take a look at W’s share price if you don’t believe me.
Shares of W were trading at $315 per share around June 2021 and fast forward to today and the same stock is $36.
I personally believe that it will be a tough slog moving forward for W and it is highly unlikely the easy conditions of 2021 will ever come back to anything similar.
W will inherently struggle to produce real cash flows which means that they are at risk of filing for bankruptcy.
Getting third parties to sell furniture for you and offering a website for that isn’t the greatest business model and they have been exposed.
In the current environment, investors are searching for real cash flows, strong balance sheets, shareholder returns, and sustainable profits.
W doesn’t check one box.
After the arbitrary lockdowns ceased, W’s business resumed burning cash.
W has burned through $4.1 billion in Free Cash Flow, excluding acquisitions, since 2013.
The burn rate is getting worse by the day because of the poor unit economics.
W burned through $1.3 billion in FCF excluding acquisitions over the trailing-twelve-months through the third quarter of 2022, compared to $214 million in the trailing 12 months through the third quarter of 2021.
In August, Wayfair announced plans to lay off about 870 employees, or about 5% of its global workforce.
However, the cost saving is more of a one-time boost to cash flow than anything long-term.
In general, since the last quarter of 2021, earnings per share losses have accelerated to the point where last quarter they delivered -$2.15 of earnings growth.
That was the worst profitability in the last 4 quarters.
Then there is the issue of inflation tearing apart American budgets.
When the cost of furniture was in demand during the government-mandated lockdowns, there was outsized demand for bespoke furniture because Americans spent all day at home.
Now, the cost of food and shelter has become so exorbitant that they are exerting maximum strain on middle class American budgets.
Amid this backdrop, there will be a longer lag until the beginning of a new furniture upgrade cycle.
Consumers were furniture-splurging during the arbitrary lockdowns and now they are splurging on food.
Food now trumps furniture.
I don’t believe this problem has a solution in the near term and any bounce in W shares will be a dead cat bounce.
If the cost of living crisis goes from bad to worse in 2023, then expect even less furniture bought from W.
“It's OK to have your eggs in one basket as long as you control what happens to that basket.” – Said Tesla CEO Elon Musk
Global Market Comments
December 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS, or OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(TSLA)
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 6, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A DISCOUNTED MISUNDERSTOOD STOCK)
(ABBV)
At times, a single stressful scenario triggers such wide-ranging panic among already anxious investors that it blocks out all the positive things occurring simultaneously.
This is what’s currently happening with AbbVie (ABBV), which is struggling to keep investors’ fears at bay as its mega-blockbuster Humira reaches patent expirations.
Humira is a treatment for various diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, any losing spondylitis, and Crohn's disease. Since its approval and commercial launch in 2002, this immunosuppressive has managed to rake in a whopping $200 billion in sales.
For 2022, this drug is projected to account for 36%, or roughly $21.2 billion, of the company’s sales. Needless to say, it’s one of AbbVie’s top-selling treatments.
While AbbVie fought extremely hard to extend its patent protection, Humira has already lost exclusivity in Europe.
It is also gearing up to battle an increasing number of eager competitors in the form of biosimilars in the United States, which would all be allowed to market their versions of Humira by 2023.
AbbVie is more than just Humira, though. This giant biopharmaceutical company has actually developed treatments with the capacity to fill the anticipated revenue gap following Humira’s decline.
In fact, shareholders who opted to wait and hold until AbbVie reaches the transition point from Humira to the new products may have erred. After all, the company’s stock is up by over 19% thus far in 2022.
Besides that, AbbVie stock appears cheap and has an attractive dividend yield. Hence, it’s worth owning, especially in these challenging times.
To date, the company has been hard at work in developing its blood cancer or hematologic oncology program. This franchise is estimated to bring in $7.6 billion in sales by 2025, which is up from the $6.8 billion expected this year.
AbbVie is also experiencing increasing sales from two newly released drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which target psoriasis and arthritis, respectively. Both are estimated to account for $7.7 billion in the 2022 revenue of the company or 13% of the total.
Moreover, these treatments should be exclusively owned by AbbVie for a while. The company won’t be facing another patent loss on any essential product until 2029.
Looking at the trajectory of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, the two can become the next big stars and eventually offset the losses from Humira’s decline.
Not only those, but AbbVie also bought Allergan in 2020, building an ironclad plan to ensure it won’t sink after Humira’s patent expiration. The aesthetics franchise, which covers Botox, cool sculpting, and Juvederm, now contributes 10% to the total sales of the company.
This implies that AbbVie’s earnings, despite the Humira issue, are anticipated to hold up better than projected.
Moreover, AbbVie has a $22 billion free cash flow from 2021, while its dividend yield is currently at 3.7%.
These factors make AbbVie look even more lucrative as interest rates continue to hike and a potential recession is on its way.
At this point, it’s prudent to keep defensive stocks, particularly businesses without massive debt maturities, in the near future. In such a volatile market, AbbVie is one of the safest and most attractive stocks to invest in.
Overall, AbbVie is a well-positioned stock. Its tactical acquisitions, such as its aggressive move to buy Allergan, have all but guaranteed that it won’t be heavily relying on a drug with an expiring patent.
More importantly, this giant biopharmaceutical company developed potentially blockbuster successors of Humira in the form of Rinvoq and Skyrizi, ensuring that its future remains bright even without its decades-long top-selling product.
AbbVie has proven itself to be a solid stock and an excellent buy for long-term investors. It’s highly advisable to buy the dip.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
December 6, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT STARTS TODAY)
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(SPY), (TSLA)
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