• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu

All Hail The Kings

Biotech Letter

What is the most exclusive category of dividend stocks? The first answer that comes to mind is the Dividend Aristocrats. These are S&P 500 members that have boosted their dividends consecutively for 25 years.

However, there is another more elite category of dividend stocks that gets less attention: the Dividend Kings.

Although they do not need to be part of the S&P 500, Dividend Kings gain this title by achieving an ultramarathon-like streak—a minimum of 50 years of consecutive payout growth.

However, buying shares of Dividend Kings is not a move for some types of investors. Several of these stocks tend to deliver relatively low growth. Some of these Dividend Kings have been underperforming in the past 10 years.

So, why should you consider investing in Dividend Kings?

Companies under this elite category can be an excellent component of any investor’s retirement portfolio or for those looking for reliable sources of income. Truth be told, most of these businesses offer dividend yields that are notably higher than the average dividend yield recorded by members of the S&P 500.

The consistency and dependability of these Dividend Kings in terms of paying out and boosting their dividend payouts also offer a certain degree of confidence for investors relying on income generated by the dividend stocks they added to their portfolio.

Only a few businesses make it to this category. Two segments comprise a significant part of the Dividend Kings category: the consumer goods sector, with 12 companies, and the industrial sector, with 14. Five utility stocks made it to the list as well.

Rounding up the list are four names from the healthcare industry: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX), and AbbVie (ABBV).

AbbVie only recently celebrated its 10th birthday after its monumental spinoff from Abbott back in 2013. In each of the past 10 years, this healthcare giant has hiked its dividend.

To date, the payout has risen by a whopping 270%, all but guaranteeing its standing as a Dividend King—a title it inherited from Abbott.

At the moment, the forward dividend yield of AbbVie is somewhere north of 3.6%, paying out approximately 73.7% of its earnings as dividends.

As expected, this relatively high payout ratio has some investors anxious over the wisdom of sustained hikes. After all, a sharp downturn in earnings could easily demand the company to pay out more in terms of dividends compared to how much its earnings rake in.

Nonetheless, it is critical to put everything in the proper context.

The competitors of the company, such as JNJ, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Sanofi (SNY), all have reported payout ratios of over 60%. That means AbbVie is hardly alone in this strategy of having a somewhat limited overhead to sustain its decision to continue hiking dividends even in the absence of earnings growth.

Apart from the $57.8 billion in revenue the company generated in the trailing 12 months, AbbVie estimates that two of its newer treatments, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, would rake in more than $15 billion in annual sales by 2025. With nine more candidates submitted for regulatory approval for 2023 alone, it is clear that AbbVie has been working hard to ensure that it creates additional new revenue streams in the near term.

As long as AbbVie continues to commercialize new products and work to develop and broaden the approved indications for its existing treatments to expand the reach of its addressable markets, then it is reasonable to believe that the company’s earnings will continue to climb.

It’s highly likely that most of the Dividend Kings will remain on the list this 2023. For one, there is immense pressure on businesses that have boosted their dividends for 50-plus years to sustain the streak. Besides, no CEO would want to be known as the leader who broke an impressive track record.

As for AbbVie, this stock is an excellent addition to the portfolio of long-investors and those searching for more sources of income. Buy the dip.

 

dividend kings

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 16:00:592023-01-31 15:07:08All Hail The Kings
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (TLT) January 12, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 14:30:362023-01-12 14:35:48Trade Alert - (TLT) January 12, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (ROKU) January 12, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 10:47:322023-01-12 10:47:32Trade Alert - (ROKU) January 12, 2023 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 12, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 12, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DON’T GET RIPPED OFF BY THE MUTUAL FUNDS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 09:04:272023-01-12 14:37:37January 12, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Don’t Get Ripped Off by the Mutual Funds

Diary, Newsletter

I was reviewing the portfolio of a new Concierge member yesterday and was horrified by what I found. After following me for several years, his single stock picks were mostly mine and doing great. But he had WAY too many mutual funds.

How many mutual funds would you guess outperformed the stock market since the bull run started 14 years ago?

If you guessed 1,000, 100, or even 10, you would be dead wrong, and even off by miles. In actual fact, not a single mutual fund has beaten the market since 2009.

Remember all those expensive, slickly produced TV ads boasting market-beating ratings and top quartiles?

You know, the ones that show an incredibly good-looking but aging couple walking hand in hand into the sunset on a deserted beach?

They are all just so much bunk. The funds mentioned rarely quote performance beyond one or two short years.

Like my college math professor used to tell me, “Statistics are like a bikini bathing suit. What they reveal is fascinating, but what they conceal is essential.”

Recently, the New York Times studied the performance of 2,862 actively managed domestic stock mutual funds since 2009. It carried out a simple quantitative analysis, looking at how many managers stayed in the top performance quartile every year.

Their final conclusion: zero.

It gets worse.

It is very rare for a manager to stay in the top quartile for more than one year. All too often, last year’s hero is this year’s goat, usually because they made some extreme one-sided bets that turned out to be a flash in the pan.

The harsh lesson here is that investing with your foot on the gas pedal going 100 miles per hour and your eyes on the rear-view mirror is certain to get you into a fatal crash.

The Times did uncover two funds that stayed at the top for an impressive five years. They turned out to be small cap energy funds that took inordinate amounts of risk to achieve these numbers and have since lost most of their money.

I guess they didn’t read the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s warning of a potential oil crash if we ever got a peace deal in Russia.

The reasons for the woeful underperformance are legion. Management fees are sky-high and grasping. Hidden costs are everywhere. Read the fine print in the prospectus, as I do, and you would be shocked, shocked like they had gambling in the casino.

Real talent is in short supply in the mutual fund industry, with all the real brains decamping to start their own 2%/20% hedge funds. The inside joke among hedge fund managers is that employment at a mutual fund is proof positive that you are a lousy manager.

Let’s go back to those glitzy TV ads, which cost millions to produce. If you are a mutual fund investor, you are paying for all of those too. They are made at the expense of a lower return on investment on your money.

And those sexy performance numbers? They benefit from a huge survivor bias. As soon as fund performance starts to tank, the managers close it, lest it pollutes the numbers of other funds in the same family.

The number of funds with good, honest 20-year records can almost be counted on one hand.

Now let me depress you even more.

An industry performance this poor underperforms random chance. That means chimpanzees throwing darts at the stock pages of the Wall Street Journal would generate a higher investment return than the entire mutual fund industry combined.

So much for all of those Harvard MBAs!

Are you ready to throw your empty beer can at the TV set yet?

If you think all of this stuff should be illegal, you are probably right. But since you watch TV, then you have probably been trained like a barking seal to oppose the regulation that would reign these people in.

This is what the attempt to kill the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill was all about. The mutual fund industry complains bitterly that they are over-regulated and spend millions on lobbyists to get themselves off the hook. By the way, these expenses also come out of your fund performance.

These are all reasons why the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is able to generate such high-performance numbers year in and year out.

I am not charging you with any of my overhead. I am not jacking up your commissions. My annual trips on the Queen Mary II are totally at my expense. Nor am I selling your order flow to high frequency traders for a tidy sum, so they can front-run you. I don’t even sell your email address to another online marketer.

Being a small operation of 15 or so people, I’ll tell you what I don’t have. I lack an investment banking department telling me I have to recommend a stock so we can get the management of their next stock issue or a sweet M&A deal and reap huge fees.

I am absent from a trading desk telling me I have to move this block of stock before the prices drop and my bonus gets cut.

And I am completely missing a boss screaming at me that if I don’t get my orders up, my wife would have to become a prostitute to support our family (yes, some unsympathetic sales manager actually told me that once. I later heard he died of a heart attack at 36).

You just need to pay me a low, flat, annual fee, and I’m done. I don’t need any more. It’s up to you to search out the best deal you can get on executions.

Don’t even think about trying to give me your money to manage. I don’t want it. It is too late in life for me to be regulated.

This is why the overwhelming bulk of investors are better off investing in the cheapest Vanguard index fund they can find, diversifying holdings among a small number of major asset classes, and then rebalancing once a year (click here for my “Buy and Forget Portfolio” ).

Welcome to the brave new world.

 

But We’re In the Top Quartile!

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 09:02:242023-01-12 14:37:07Don’t Get Ripped Off by the Mutual Funds
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 12, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

Thursday morning

January 12, 2023

Hello everyone,

How are those New Year’s resolutions going??

Any traction? Is there stickability there?

Why not head over to Honolulu for a few days in February this year and join John for his strategy luncheon on February 17. It’s a win-win trip – a holiday which is a tax deduction as you are travelling for business, and you will have the potential to make money while you are there. Can’t beat that.

If you are heading over to Europe for the northern European summer, why not add a cruise leg? You can join John on the Queen Mary for the July 13 Seminar at Sea.

John did his bi-weekly webinar yesterday, so this post will be a summary of what he talked about.

Title: January Surprises

MTD – hottest start in history of Mad Hedge Fund Trader with 13.89% MTD.

90% invested (40%long and 50% short)

TSLA
GOLD All long
WPM
BRKB

Three TLT trades All short

46.67% average annualized return

Expect choppy markets and range trading for the next 6 months. 355 on the downside and 410 on the upside.

2023 – the year of commodities.
Look for S&P 500 at 4,800 by end of 2023.
VIX dives to $22 = no trade.
Gold and Silver break out.
Energy – new lows on warmer weather and supply glut and Russia failures.

Nonfarm Payrolls come in warm at 223,000 for December.
Shipping costs dive 40%, as supply chain problems end.
IMF sees a slow decade of global growth.
Slowing from 3.2% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023.

The Fed is selling 90 billion worth of Bonds every month.

2023 starts with a big, short cover, but we are stuck in a range.
2023 will be all about value in H1 and growth in H2.

Commodity plays will lead, oil plays will lag.
Financial will be strong,
Biotech will be the safety trade.
Use pullbacks to scale into tech stocks.

Start scaling into Tesla.
Tesla is now the most widely owned and traded stock in the market, beating Apple.

Terrible H1 and strong H2 to replay in 2023.

One million and a half orders for Cybertrucks.
Tesla selling at 10 times their 2020 earnings.

Suggested trade: Tesla LEAP Jan 2025, 180/190
Buy calls at 180
Sell short calls at 190
If Tesla closes over $190 in two years, you will do well.

One subscriber asked about the FCX LEAP, "The January 2025 FCX LEAP approaching the upper end of the 42/45 range. If it crosses 45, do we close the position?"

Sell half – take the profit.
Keep the remaining half – play with the house’s money.
Expecting $100/share by 2025 expiration.
Therefore possible 1000% return on position.

Possible head and shoulders bottom forming on Microsoft. Think about a 2-year LEAP on this stock.

ROM – also possible head and shoulders bottom.

BONDS
A new default risk.
Dark clouds are hanging over the bond market as a government shutdown and default this summer is in the cards as chaos reigns in the House of Representatives.

The House controls all the spending in the U.S. government with a majority of 4, soon to be an unmanageable 3.

TLT should reach $120 in 2023 without political interference.

Keep buying (TLT) calls, call spreads, and LEAPS on dips.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 80 basis points to 6.48%.

U.S. budget deficit drops by half.

Buy TLT, JNK, and HYG on dips.

New House Speaker = probable defunding of the IRS.
Bond negative.
Prevents the IRS from upgrading computers, and improving customer support. E.g., if your accountant wants to ask a question, they are kept on hold for an hour. When you’re paying them $100/hour, that’s not an ideal situation.

Foreign Currencies

Japan reverses 30-year easy money policy – interest rates rise from 0.25% to 0.50%.
Yen soared 4% on the move.
Buy Euro, Pound, Aussie, and Yen.
China lockdown will keep the Yuan relatively weak.

Strong currencies will also deliver major bull markets in emerging markets stocks. (EEM) & (CEW).

The US is now the world’s top oil producer followed by Saudi Arabia & Russia.

Gold/Silver

With interest rates likely to fall in 2023 – reactive by the Fed to recession, precious metals could be one of the big trades of the year. Demise of crypto puts new focus on gold. Buy GLD, GDX & GOLD on dips.

Become a subscriber to Jacquie’s Post. Just go to madhedgefundtrader.com and go to John’s store, or simply click here.

Cheers,
Jacque

"The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." - Mark Twain.

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-12 01:00:352023-01-17 10:32:26January 12, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 11, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 11, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(OPENAI BLAZES A TRAIL)
(BING), (GOOGL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-11 16:04:212023-01-11 20:06:18January 11, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

OpenAI Blazes A Trail

Tech Letter

ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chat tool created by OpenAI, burst onto the scene only a month ago in December 2022 when the service accumulated a few million subscribers in days.

Artificial intelligence has always been tabbed as the future – the future is now here.

Damn straight, and about time!

ChatGPT is a program that is able to carry on a text-based conversation by generating answers and replies using its artificial algorithm.

In many cases, the answers and replies seem so natural that it is almost impossible to differentiate between a real human and a piece of code.

This software is a game changer.

The piece of technology went viral only last month when its free version launched and students were the first to figure out its usefulness.

December 2022 could be looked back upon as the AHA moment when American students finally stopped needing to ever write essays and that’s exactly what has happened.

Then there is the question of why students securing degrees in fields like art history, language, or any humanity field need to go to school at all.

OpenAI has now rendered American universities worthless.

Aside from specific specialty fields like science, technology, and engineering, the case for students paying a bajillion dollars per year to attend some glorified adult day care center is marginal.

Technology has now democratized knowledge.

It’s not that surprising a big tech company would swoop in to take advantage - Microsoft and their CEO Satya Nadella are in talks with OpenAI to invest $10 billion in ChatGPT-owner OpenAI as part of funding that will value the firm at $29 billion.

Hard to understand why Apple or Meta isn’t in the running.

Microsoft will also get 75% of OpenAI's profits until it recoups its initial investment.

OpenAI expects $200 million in revenue next year and $1 billion by 2024.

OpenAI charges developers licensing its technology about a penny or a little more to generate 20,000 words of text, and about 2 cents to create an image from a written prompt.

This could be the beginning of a foray into intense competition with Google’s search engine by Microsoft’s Bing.

Bing has been deadweight for many years and I hardly know anyone who actually uses it.

The effectiveness of Bing search is mediocre at best and Google search has always been the best in class.

I believe that Microsoft will unleash ChatGPT to skew future content towards its Bing search engine.

If one opens Google Maps on a different browser, it hardly works.

I expect some sort of similar correlation with Microsoft Bing that ties ChatGPT-based content with the Microsoft Bing browser.

Then there is the ChatGPT foreign language potential which could potentially usurp Google Translate in the future simply because it becomes better than Google Translate.  

Google translate has cornered the foreign language translation market in a browser market and that could easily be reversed with ChatGPT once it starts integrating with many foreign languages.

I am surprised Google let this one get away because they are directly threatened by it and Google’s acceleration is decelerating.

Microsoft is clearly a winner from this investment and I can expect for its Bing search engine to slowly steal market share from Google search as it integrates ChatGPT into its in-house browser. The American university system is clearly a loser here with most college degrees not worth the ink the diplomas are written on. Don’t waste money on obsolete education.

Buy Microsoft shares on the dip.

 

chatgpt

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-11 16:02:392023-01-31 14:15:21OpenAI Blazes A Trail
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - January 11, 2023

Tech Letter

“Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice.” – Said Co-Founder of Apple Steve Jobs

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/steve-jobs.png 590 500 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-11 16:00:132023-01-11 20:04:20Quote of the Day - January 11, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (AMZN) January 11, 2023 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-11 10:57:372023-01-11 10:57:37Trade Alert - (AMZN) January 11, 2023 - BUY
Page 10 of 15«‹89101112›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top