Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 16, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM PANDEMIC HERO TO UNDERRATED STOCK STAR)
(PFE), (BNTX), (JNJ), (LLY), (MRK), (ABBV), (BMY), (AMGN), (GILD)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 16, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM PANDEMIC HERO TO UNDERRATED STOCK STAR)
(PFE), (BNTX), (JNJ), (LLY), (MRK), (ABBV), (BMY), (AMGN), (GILD)
For investors grappling with the classic dilemma of whether to jump into the stock market or wait for a market dip, here’s a compelling solution: healthcare stocks.
These stocks offer the best of both worlds, combining elements of both defensive and growth investments, providing a potential way out of this conundrum.
The defensive nature of healthcare stocks was vividly displayed in 2022, when the Health Care Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLV) only saw a minimal decline of 2.1%, significantly outperforming the broader market's 18% slump.
This resilience stems from a simple truth: regardless of economic conditions, people will always require medical care and medications. As a result, healthcare companies tend to experience less volatility in terms of revenue and earnings compared to the overall market.
However, this year has been a different story. Technology and communication services shares have taken the lead, causing healthcare stocks to dip by 2.3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged by 8.4% as investors view healthcare as a defensive sector.
Nonetheless, don't overlook the significant growth potential in this sector. In fact, healthcare has consistently delivered an average annual earnings growth rate of 12% since the mid-1980s, surpassing even the tech sector.
This impressive growth has been driven by factors such as aging populations in developed countries, the rising affluence of consumers in emerging markets, and groundbreaking advancements in the treatment of previously incurable conditions.
Interestingly, the recent decline in healthcare stocks has made their valuations more attractive. Currently, healthcare trades at a 5% discount compared to the broader S&P 500, whereas historically it has commanded a premium of around 11%.
Considering this, it's evident that the fundamental outlook for healthcare remains promising, making it an enticing opportunity for investors.
In the realm of defensive downside protection combined with compelling long-term growth prospects, a few notable companies shine brightly.
One standout is Pfizer (PFE), the pharmaceutical titan that truly hit it out of the park during the tumultuous COVID-19 pandemic.
Not only did it swiftly develop and commercialize its highly successful vaccine in collaboration with BioNTech (BNTX), but it also demonstrated an innovative approach that can be leveraged for future drug and vaccine advancements.
The COVID-19 vaccine proved to be an extraordinary cash cow for Pfizer, catapulting their revenue in 2021 and 2022 to double the figures of the previous two years.
Meanwhile, their free cash flow nearly tripled, presenting the company with abundant financial opportunities.
When we examine Pfizer in comparison to its US Big Pharma counterparts like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck & Co (MRK), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Amgen (AMGN), and Gilead Sciences (GILD), though, it becomes evident that this stock is appearing significantly undervalued across various metrics.
A fascinating observation emerges when we consider that Pfizer's revenue in 2022 was 3.5 times higher than that of Eli Lilly, yet Pfizer's market capitalization is $150 billion lower than Lilly's.
Furthermore, Pfizer surpassed Merck and AbbVie in revenue by nearly 2 times while achieving a substantially higher profit margin.
Still, Pfizer's market capitalization of $220 billion is nearly $50 billion lower than AbbVie's and approximately $70 billion lower than Merck's.
These comparisons suggest that Pfizer's stock price is curiously undervalued, presenting an opportunity for growth. However, the market has arrived at a different conclusion.
The rationale behind this perspective lies in the belief that the additional revenues generated by Pfizer through Paxlovid and Comirnaty due to the COVID-19 pandemic are not expected to be a permanent fixture.
As fewer individuals receive COVID vaccinations and require antiviral treatments, the demand for these products is predicted to decrease significantly. Consequently, this perceived compromise in Pfizer's growth trajectory has influenced its valuation in the market.
Moreover, several moneymaking drugs are set to lose patent exclusivity, which again underlines why analysts and the market are reluctant to buy the company's stock.
Rather than opting for a special dividend or engaging in additional stock buybacks, Pfizer's management embarked on an impressive acquisition spree, replenishing the company's drug development pipeline.
Pfizer has been making major moves in the pharmaceutical industry since mid-2021.
In a series of high-profile acquisitions, the company has added some promising drug candidates to its already impressive portfolio. In fact, Pfizer is aiming to generate $20 billion in revenues from its product pipeline by 2030, while adding another $25 billion to the top line through business development.
Some of the notable deals completed by Pfizer include the $2.3 billion acquisition of Trillium Therapeutics, which brought in two CD-47 targeting blood cancer drug candidates.
The company also acquired Arena Pharmaceuticals for $7 billion, gaining access to its late-stage autoimmune candidate Etrasimod.
It then completed an $11.6 billion deal for Biohaven and its lead candidate Nurtec, which is indicated for migraine treatment.
Global Blood Therapeutics was acquired for $5.4 billion, adding the commercial-stage drug Oxbryta to Pfizer's portfolio, which is indicated for sickle cell disease.
Pfizer acquired Reviral for $525 million and gained access to its antiviral therapeutics targeting the respiratory syncytial virus.
In March, Pfizer made another bold move by announcing its intention to acquire Seagen for $43 billion. Seagen is a pioneer in the antibody-drug conjugate space, with a portfolio that includes ADCETRIS, TIVDAK, and PADCEV. These drugs earned $839 million, $451 million, and $63 million, respectively, in 2022.
Despite all these acquisitions and the ambitious revenue targets set by Pfizer, some analysts have expressed doubts about the company's ability to achieve its goals.
This is because Pfizer does not currently have any "mega-blockbuster" drugs in its portfolio, which are drugs that generate more than $15 billion in annual sales.
For instance, Merck's Keytruda and Lilly's Tirzepatide are both expected to generate more than $25 billion in annual sales, while AbbVie's Humira has generated more than $15 billion in annual sales for many years.
Nonetheless, Pfizer remains optimistic and is determined to reach its revenue targets by 2030.
Aside from the splashy acquisitions, Pfizer has exciting prospects on the horizon, promising accelerated revenue growth from its non-COVID products in the latter half of this year. The company is gearing up for a series of key product launches that are set to make waves in the market.
One notable launch is Cibinqo, a breakthrough treatment for eczema. With its approval in January, Pfizer anticipates peak sales of approximately $3 billion.
Later in the year, the company has high hopes for Ritlecitinib, a potential therapy for alopecia, as well as Zavzpret, a migraine therapy that gained approval in March. These innovative products are poised to capture significant market share.
Pfizer's portfolio expansion doesn't stop there.
It has set its sights set on Elranatamab, a promising blood cancer therapy projected to reach peak annual sales of $4 billion.
Additionally, the company plans to introduce a new RSV vaccine and pursue label expansions for Xtandi and Braftovi.
Let's also not forget the potential approval for Etrasimod, a blockbuster-in-waiting that could revolutionize the industry.
Overall, Pfizer emerges as a compelling investment opportunity, presenting a unique blend of defensive strength and promising growth potential, while its valuation remains attractive and aligned with historical levels. While it may require a measure of patience, it's crucial to recognize that this stock won't stay affordable forever. I suggest you buy the dip.
Global Market Comments
May 16, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE THURSDAY, MAY 18, 2023 TAMPA FLORIDA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(LOOKING AT THE LARGE NUMBERS)
(TLT), (TBT) (BITCOIN), (MSTR), (BLOK), (HUT)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Tampa, Florida on Thursday, May 18, 2023. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $289.
I’ll be arriving on time and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown Tampa. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here or click on the Buy Now! button above.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 15, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ACCELERATING TO PROFITS)
(TECH)
Two decades ago, iPhone didn’t exist — hard to believe — right? As it stands now, US consumers wouldn’t be able to survive an hour outside their house without one.
At least I wouldn’t.
Three decades earlier, no one even owned a computer.
Doesn’t that just mess with your head?
The first personal computer arrived about 40 years ago.
Today, we are hypnotized by our computers and almost unable to get away from them.
What does this all mean, John Thomas?
Intuitively and anecdotally, it feels like technology is progressing faster than ever.
Accelerating technology is the explanation of this driving force, which is aptly called the law of accelerating returns.
Computer chips have become increasingly powerful while costing less. That’s because, over the last five decades, the number of transistors—or the tiny electrical components that perform basic operations—on a single chip has been doubling regularly.
So give it to me in a nutshell, and what does it all mean?
According to the law of accelerating returns, the pace of technological progress—especially information technology—speeds up exponentially over time because there is a common force driving it forward. Being exponential, as it turns out, is all about evolution.
As this process plays out generation after generation, chaotically yet incrementally, incredible growth takes place.
Civilizations advance by “repurposing” the ideas and breakthroughs of their predecessors. Similarly, each generation of technology builds on the advances of previous generations, and this creates a positive feedback loop of improvements.
The big new idea is that each new generation of technology stands on the shoulders of its predecessors—in this way, improvements in technology enable the next generation of even better technology.
Because each generation of technology improves over the last and even self-corrects, the rate of progress from version to version speeds up.
This acceleration can be measured in the “returns” of the technology—such as speed, efficiency, price-performance, and overall “power”—which improve exponentially too.
As technology becomes more effective, it attracts more attention. The result is a flood of new resources—such as increased R&D budgets, recruiting top talent, etc.—which are directed to further improving the technology.
This wave of new resources triggers a “second level” of exponential growth, where the rate of exponential growth also begins accelerating.
However, limited paradigms won’t grow exponentially forever. They grow until they’ve exhausted their potential, at which point a new paradigm replaces the old one.
This suggests that the horizons for amazingly powerful technologies may be closer than we realize.
We’re only 23 years into the 21st century and the progress has been breathtaking—the global adoption of the Internet, smartphones, high-level robots, and AI that will replace everyone’s job so we can sip tea poolside.
We sequenced the first human genome in 2004 at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. Now, machines can sequence 100,000 annually for $20 a genome.
These are just a few examples of the law of accelerating returns driving progress forward. Because the future is approaching much faster than we realize, it’s critical to think exponentially about where we’re headed and how we’ll get there.
Clearly, not every company was built equally, and not every tech firm will be able to take advantage quickly of super shifts in technological prowess.
Unfortunately, harnessing new technology like A.I. absorbs capital, and lots of it.
Companies like Apple and Microsoft are almost $3 trillion and wield generous shareholder return programs.
It could be true that the richest will be able to find a path to supercharge business models with the newest tech.
I do believe in 10 years there will be only 7 tech stocks left on the public markets because they will dwarf in size anything that is even remotely less relevant.
Welcome to tech in 2023.
“AI doesn’t have to be evil to destroy humanity – if AI has a goal and humanity just happens to come in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it, no hard feelings.” – Said Founder and CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
May 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or I’M GOING ON STRIKE!)
(TSLA), (TLT), (AAPL), (BRK/B), (BA), (GOOGL)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
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