Global Market Comments
July 11, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 19, 2023 LONDON, ENGLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MEET THE GREEKS)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
July 11, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 19, 2023 LONDON, ENGLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MEET THE GREEKS)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London at 12:30 PM on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. A three-course lunch is included. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $298.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James Street, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here or click on the Buy Now! above.
Hang around any professional options trading desk and it will only be seconds before you hear the terms Delta, Theta, Gamma, or Vega. No, they are not reminiscing about their good old fraternity or sorority days (Go Delta Sigma Phi!).
These are all symbols for mathematical explanations of how options prices behave when something changes. They provide additional tools for understanding the price action of options and can greatly enhance your own trading performance.
Bottom line: they are all additional ways to make money trading options.
The best part about the Greeks is that they are all displayed on your online options trading platform FOR FREE! So if you can read a number off a screen, you gain several new advantages in the options trading world.
Deltas
The simplest and most basic Greek symbol to comprehend is the Delta. An option delta is a prediction of how much the option price will change relative to a change in the underlying security.
Here it is easiest to teach by example. Let’s go back to our (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option. Let’s assume that (AAPL) shares are trading at $110, and our call option is worth $2.00.
If (APPL) share rises $1 from $110 to $111, the call options will rise by 50 cents to $2.50. This is because an at-the-money call option has a delta of +0.50, or +50%. In other words, the (AAPL) call options will rise by 50% or half of the amount of the (AAPL) shares.
Let’s say you bought (AAPL) shares because you expect them to rise 10% going into the next big earnings announcement. How much will the above-mentioned call options rise?
That’s easy. A call option with a delta of 50% will rise by half the amount of the shares. So if (AAPL) shares rise by 10% from $110 to $121, the call options will appreciate by half this dollar amount, or $5.50. This means that the call options should jump in price from $2.00 to $7.50, a gain of 375%.
By the way, did I mention that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
50% delta X $11 stock gain = $5.50
$2.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $7.50
Deltas - the downside
Now let’s look at the Put side of the equation. Let's assume that Apple is about to disappoint terribly in their next earnings report and that the stock is about to FALL 10%.
We want to buy the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option, which will profit when the stock falls. Remember, put options are always more expensive than call options because investors are always willing to pay a premium for downside protection. So our put options here should cost about $4.00.
If we’re right and Apple shares tank 10%, from $110 to $99, how much will the put options increase in value?
We use the same arithmetic as with the call options. An at-the-money put option also has a delta of 0.50, or 50%. So the put options will capture half the downside move of the stock, or $5.50. Add this to our $4.00 cost, and our put option should now be worth $9.50, a gain of 237.5%.
Did I happen to tell you that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option
50% delta X $11 stock decline = $5.50
$4.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $9.50
Selling Options short and deltas
Let’s consider one more example, the short position. Let’s assume that Apple shares are going to fall, but we don’t know by how much, or how soon.
In that case, you are better off selling short a call option than buying a put option. That way, if the stock only falls by a small amount, or goes nowhere, you can still make a profit.
When you sell short an option, your broker PAYS you the premium, which sits in your account until you close the position.
Short positions in options always have negative deltas. So a short position in the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option will have a delta of -50%.
Let’s say you sold short the (AAPL) calls for $2.00 and Apple shares fell by 10%. What does the short position in the call option do? Since it has a delta of -50%, it will drop by half, from $2.00 to $1.00 and you will make a profit of $1.00.
Here is the beauty of short position options. Let’s assume that (AAPL) stock doesn’t move at all. It just sits there at $110 right through the options expiration date of June 17, 2016.
Then the value of the call option you sold at $2.00 goes to zero. Your broker closes out the expired position from your account and frees up your margin requirement.
Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? In fact, the numbers are so attractive that a large proportion of professional traders only engage in selling short options to earn a living.
To accomplish this, they usually have mainframe computers, highly skilled programmers, and teams of mathematicians backing them up which cost tens of millions of dollars a year.
However, there is a catch.
When you sell short a call option, you are taking on UNLIMITED RISK. The position is said to be naked, or unhedged. Let’s say you sell short the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option, and (AAPL) shares, instead of falling, RISE from $110 to $200, a gain of $90.
Then the value of your short position with the -50% delta soars from $2.00 to $45.00. You will get wiped out. It gets worse. The delta on this option is only 50% for the immediate move above $110. The higher the stock rise, the faster your delta increases until it eventually reaches 100%. You now have a loss that increases exponentially!
This is why many hedge fund managers refer to naked option shorting as the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller” strategy.
For this reason, brokers either demand extremely high margin requirements for these “naked”, or unhedged short positions, or they won’t let you do them at all.
If you dig down behind many of the extravagant performance claims of other options trading services, they are almost always reliant on the naked shorting of options. They all blow up. It is just a matter of when.
For that reason, we here at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader NEVER recommend the naked shorting of put or call options, no matter what the circumstances.
We want to keep you as a happy, money-making customer for the long term. If you succumb to temptation and engage in naked shorting of options, you will be separated from your money in fairly short order.
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
(AAPL) shares rise from $110 to $200
$2.00 short sale proceeds + $90 - $88.00
a loss of 4,400%!!
Theta
All options have time value. This is why an option with a one-year expiration date cost far more than one with a one-week expiration date. The theta is the measurement of how much premium you lose in a day. This is what options traders like me refer to as time decay.
The theta on an option changes every day. For example, an option with a year until expiration is miniscule. An option that has a day until expiration is close to 100%, since it will lose its entire value within 24 hours, if it is out of the money. The closer we get to expiration; the faster theta accelerates. As mathematicians say, it is not a straight-line move.
This is why you never want to hold a long option position going into expiration. The value of this option will vaporize by the day. Unless the stock goes your way very quickly, you will have a really tough time making money.
If you are short an option, this is when you can earn your greatest profits. But you only want to consider a short option position when you have an offsetting hedge against it. That will minimize and define your risk and keep you from blowing up and going to the poor house. We’ll talk more about that later.
I could go into how you calculate your own thetas, but that would be boring. Suffice it to say that you can read it right off the screen of your online trading platform.
Implied Volatility
While we’re here meeting the Greeks, there is one more concept that I want to get across to make your life as an options trader easier.
You have probably heard of the term implied volatility. But to understand what this is, let me give you a little background.
Back in the 1970s, a couple of mathematicians developed a model for pricing options. Their names were Fisher Black and Myron Scholes and they received the Nobel Prize for their work. Their equation became known as the Black Scholes formula.
The Black Scholes equation predicts how much an option should be worth based on the historic volatility of the underlying securities, the current level of interest rates, and a few other factors.
When options trade over their Black Scholes value, they are said to have a high implied volatility. When they trade at a discount, they have a low implied volatility.
Let’s say that a piece of news comes out that a company is going to be taken over. The shares will rocket, and so will the implied volatility of the options.
If you pay a very high implied volatility for a Call option, the chances of you making money decline, and you are taking on more risk. If you pay too much, you could even see a situation where the stock rises, but the call option doesn’t rise, or even falls.
On the other hand, let's say you buy a call option that is trading at a big discount to its theoretical implied volatility. You usually find this when a stock has shown little movement over a long period of time.
Chances are that you will get a good return on this low-risk position, especially if you pick it up just before a major news event that you have correctly predicted.
At the end of the day, you should attempt to do with implied volatilities what you do with stocks and their options, buy low and sell high.
Fisher Black and Myron Scholes
The minors
There are a few other Greek letters you may hear about in the options market or find on your screen. For the most part, these are unnecessary, most basic options strategies, gamma is well above your pay grade.
Gamma is the name of the most powerful type of radiation emitted when an atomic bomb goes off. But we won’t talk about that here.
In the options world, gamma is the amount that the delta changes generated by a $1 move in the underlying stock price.
You may hear news reports of funds gamma hedging their portfolio during times of extreme market volatility. This occurs when managers want to reduce the volatility of their portfolios relative to the market.
Vega is another Greek term you’ll find on your screen. All options have a measurement called implied volatility or “vol” which indicates how much the option should move relative to a move in the underlying stock.
Vega is the measurement of the change in that option volatility. When a stock has a volatility that is changing rapidly, vega will be high. When a stock is boring, vega will be low.
Finally, for the sake of completeness, I’ll mention rho. Rho is the amount that the price of an option will change compared to a change in the risk-free interest rate, i.e. the interest rate of US Treasury bills.
Back in the 1980s, rho was a big deal because interest rates were very high. Since they have been close to zero for the past eight years, rho has been pretty much useless. The only reason you would want to mention rho today is if you were writing a book about options.
With that, you should be fairly fluent in the Greeks, at least in regards to trading options. Just don’t expect this to get you anywhere if you ever plan to take a vacation to Greece.
“We live in a world that is not described by classical economics,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.
OpenAI has emerged as a leading force in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), dedicated to creating and promoting AI technology that benefits all of humanity. Its journey, from its inception to its current status, showcases the organization's commitment to advancing AI research and fostering ethical practices. This article explores the rise of OpenAI and the key milestones that have shaped its trajectory.
OpenAI was founded in December 2015 by a group of visionary entrepreneurs and AI researchers, including Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever, and others. The organization was established with a mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI) benefits all of humanity, avoiding the concentration of power and enabling broad access to its benefits.
OpenAI quickly made a mark in the AI research community by publishing influential research papers and developing state-of-the-art AI models. Notably, their deep reinforcement learning algorithms achieved significant breakthroughs in areas such as game playing, including the famous victory of OpenAI's Dota 2 AI over professional human players.
OpenAI gained widespread recognition with the development of advanced language models. Their model, GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer), demonstrated impressive capabilities in generating coherent and contextually relevant text. The release of GPT-3 in June 2020 further showcased OpenAI's expertise in natural language processing, leading to applications in chatbots, content generation, and creative writing.
OpenAI has been vocal about its commitment to ethical AI development. In 2018, they published a set of principles, emphasizing the importance of long-term safety, broad distribution of benefits, and cooperation with other research and policy institutions. These principles aimed to guide OpenAI's actions in an effort to mitigate potential risks associated with AI deployment.
In pursuit of its mission to ensure broad access to AI, OpenAI has taken steps to democratize its technologies. They have released several versions of their language models, including GPT-3, to the research and developer community. Additionally, they have actively sought partnerships and collaborations to make AI more accessible and inclusive.
OpenAI underwent a significant organizational transformation in 2019 when it transitioned into a for-profit entity. This change allowed OpenAI to raise external funding to support its ambitious research and development goals. However, the organization remains dedicated to its mission of benefiting humanity and has established safeguards to ensure that financial interests do not compromise its core values.
OpenAI maintains a long-term focus on developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), which refers to highly autonomous systems that can outperform humans in the most economically valuable work. With a cooperative orientation, OpenAI aims to actively collaborate with other research and policy institutions to address the global challenges associated with AGI development, including safety and ethical considerations.
The rise of OpenAI represents a transformative force in the field of artificial intelligence. From its inception, OpenAI has pursued a mission of ensuring that AI benefits all of humanity, fostering ethical practices, and promoting the democratization of AI technology. By contributing groundbreaking research, releasing powerful language models, and advocating for responsible AI development, OpenAI has established itself as a leading force in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. With a focus on cooperation and long-term safety, OpenAI continues to shape the future of AI while working towards a world where AI technology can have a positive and equitable impact on society.
Midjourney prompt: “The path to artificial general intelligence”
Financial Trader - AI Tools
A financial trader can utilize AI technology to enhance their investment practices in various ways. Here's an overview of how AI can be employed and some popular tools and platforms that financial traders can consider:
Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling:
Robo-Advisory Platforms:
News and Sentiment Analysis:
Risk Assessment and Portfolio Optimization:
Fraud Detection and Security:
Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Chatbots:
It's important to note that while these tools and platforms provide valuable AI capabilities, financial traders and advisors should carefully evaluate each tool's suitability for their specific needs and consider factors such as cost, compatibility, and regulatory compliance. Additionally, staying updated with emerging tools and advancements in the AI landscape is essential to leverage the most effective solutions for investment purposes.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE YEN TAILWIND TO TECH STOCKS)
(JPY), ($COMPQ), (META), (ZM)
In the trader's guidebook of how to trade, it’s quite common to cement the nostrum "don’t fight the Fed" into one’s brain.
Many know this.
In 2022, this nostrum served traders quite well as interest rate increases left the tech market in the dust.
Major tech stocks ($COMPQ) from Meta (META) to small-cap Zoom Video Communications (ZM) fell flat on their face.
That was when "don’t fight the Fed" was the smart thing to do.
Fast forward to 2023 and the Fed is still marching towards more interest rate tightening, but astonishingly the opposite has happened, it has paid to fight the Fed this year.
Not only that, the tech-based Nasdaq has gone parabolic, delivering gains of already over 30% in just the first 7 months.
Anyone that hasn’t fought the Fed has been left bloody in the streets like a standard Parisian riot.
One piece of the puzzle that often gets overlooked is one major catalyst to this trade which is the Japanese yen carry trade.
This is how the trade has worked for many hedge funds this year.
Borrow in Japanese yen because the cost of borrowing is still puny compared to yields in Western countries.
Take that yen back over to the Western equity markets and pour them into stocks like Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon.
The strategy has worked like clockwork and I know many traders that have made second and third fortunes off of the back of this trade so far this year.
Traders have boosted short positions on the yen as the currency moved steadily lower this year amid widening divergence between the Bank of Japan’s easy policy and aggressive hiking cycles for other central banks, notably in the US and Europe.
Talking about the Yen is timely as reports of lower US job numbers and increased Japanese wage gains triggered a one-day selloff in the dollar.
We won’t see a complete unwind of the yen carry trade just yet but the carry trade had gotten a little too long in the tooth, so this is profit-taking to readjust positioning.
If volatility stays high then it will continue to unwind, but if volatility stabilizes then the Japanese yen carry trade parade will continue unabashed.
The yen is one of the worst-performing Group-of-10 this year, reaching 145 per dollar last month, a level unseen since November.
What’s next?
Nothing has fundamentally changed.
The US isn’t going into a recession this year and even if credit card delinquencies are up and household net worth is struggling in America, it’s not enough to move the needle to deter the Japanese yen carry trade.
The mild pullback against the US dollar is in fact a golden opportunity for traders to pour back into the short Japanese yen trade.
As long as the Japanese yen remains weak, tech stocks won’t crack because this liquidity is the lifeblood to many tech stocks.
We have been crowbarred into this goldilocks environment of higher equities, higher bond yields, and now US housing is starting to bounce back.
The Nasdaq has been ironclad this year and even if I don’t think it will deliver another 30% to finish the year, the pain trader is higher in tech stocks, marginally higher in bond yields, higher in US housing, and short Japanese yen.
Until we receive some type of concrete confirmation that this pain trade is over, I expect to grind up in the aforementioned asset classes.
“Your margin is my opportunity.” – Said Founder and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos
July 10, 2023
Good afternoon,
Did anyone get the memo that the market would fall 500 and then rally hard after the Fed statement?
John didn’t and neither did I.
What a short covering event it was!
And did you see what Gold did? Straight up and then back down again.
Even with the Nasdaq rallying hard, the consensus is that it is still not a good time to be buying stocks.
Dan Niles, hedge fund manager of the Satori Fund, said he expects stock markets to fall by the middle of this year as the Federal Reserve opts to keep interest rates higher for longer. On Thursday, he told CNBC that there was a disconnect between market expectations and the U.S. central bank’s messaging.
Jerome Powell said he doesn’t expect to cut interest rates this year. However, interest rate swap data shows that a significant proportion of the market expects a cut in the base rate by the middle of this year.
Niles believes that when we get to mid-year, and it becomes obvious that the Fed is not going to be cutting rates, a realization is going to hit that the Fed is not going to help you out like people want.
Niles expects the S&P to fall to 3,000, 25% below its current level.
Elon Musk and Twitter
According to the Financial Times, Musk is planning to build a fiat payment system that could allow for crypto functionality later. Musk wants Twitter to be the “everything” app where the platform offers fintech services, like peer-to-peer transactions, savings accounts, and even debit cards.
Within a short amount of time, it is likely that Musk will run “Siri” out of town. Instead of talking to her on our phones about the weather, etc, we will converse with her cousin who will be organising our days and keeping us on track. The future is happening fast…
Have a great weekend.
Take care.
Cheers,
Jacque
Global Market Comments
July 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(FRIDAY, AUGUST 4, 2023 VIENNA, AUSTRIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.