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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Good Signs for Tech

Tech Letter

It’s incredible that a 7% increase year-over-year in revenue means an extra $5 billion in just one quarter.

That’s what happens when a company is a behemoth, and the company I am talking about is Alphabet, or better known as Google (GOOGL).

Some of these tech companies are so large that growth rates don’t mean much unless they are negative.

Whether it is 3% or 6%, the nominal amount of revenue increase is gargantuan.

The law of large numbers is certainly valid in these situations so don’t expect multi-trillion dollar tech firms to grow 30% or 40% like they used to.

As I correctly predicted, Google and similar companies are doing just fine this earnings season, and I believe they could have gotten away with even 3% growth.

The 7% growth translated into a 7% bump in GOOGL shares this morning showing that investors care more about the additional $5 billion in revenue rather than the low growth rate.

For the fourth straight quarter, Google reported growth in the single digits as it reckons with a pullback in digital ad spending that reflects concerns about the economy.

Across the industry, investors will be looking for updates on cost-cutting measures implemented earlier in the year and the impact of artificial intelligence investments on profitability.

Revenue in Google’s cloud unit, which includes infrastructure and productivity apps, increased 28%.

Google’s ad revenue rose 3.3% to $58.14 billion, up from $56.29 billion last year. YouTube ads came in above analyst expectations at $7.67 billion marginally up from $7.34 billion the year before.

Google’s “search and other” revenue rose to $42.63 billion, up slightly from last year.

The only “growth” part of the business has been the cloud and even that is starting to taper off.

Up until recently, they were expanding that business around 35% year-over-year and now they are down to 28%. In a few years, they will be down to the teens.

Google is slowing down but that doesn’t mean they aren’t profitable.

The cash cow of the ad business keeps churning out the revenue and Microsoft hasn’t turned out to be the threat to Google search that investors first thought when ChatGPT came out.

Investors reacting to 7% growth by pouring money into the stock are a good omen for the rest of big tech.

It means that these other companies, like Apple, only need to marginally outperform to get rocket fuel in their stock and I will take that for all its worth.

Any worst-case scenario will not come to fruition.

Any tech analyst who is bearish this year can be described in one way – unemployed.

The fake narrative of an “earnings recession” and higher interest rates hasn’t even put a dent in the strength of tech.

It’s like throwing pebbles at the Titanic.

Even scarier for the bears, this was supposed to finally be the entry point when a dip could present itself so the bears could get into tech to try and salvage a terrible year.

Well, now, they need to chase another 7% because Google’s ship has sailed and I have conviction that Apple will jump over the low bar for its shares to have a similar effect.

As for GOOGL, I am a buyer on the next mini-dip.

 

google revenue

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 17:02:492023-07-31 15:51:46Good Signs for Tech
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - July 26, 2023

Tech Letter

“By giving people the power to share, we're making the world more transparent.” – Said Co-Founder and CEO of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/mark-zucherberg.png 624 340 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 17:00:162023-07-26 17:52:10Quote of the Day - July 26, 2023
Douglas Davenport

DIGITAL EMPATHY: HOW AI IS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MENTAL HEALTH

Mad Hedge AI

(TDOC), (CVS), (AAPL), (META), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT)

Over the last handful of years, a tidal wave of somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 apps has flooded into the mental health arena, vowing to turn talk therapy on its head. 

With the buzz around artificial intelligence (AI) advancements such as ChatGPT, the notion that chatbots could step up as mental health caregivers doesn't seem as far-fetched as it once did.

Besides, let's face it. Our modern society is riddled with mental health concerns, with mental illnesses escalating at an alarming rate. 

As the world spun into the frenzy of pre-COVID times, an alarming number of individuals were already battling anxiety and depression - a whopping one billion souls globally. 

But then, along came the pandemic, acting like gasoline on a roaring fire, escalating that figure by an astonishing 27%. Makes you sit up straight, doesn't it?

Just like a cruel game of seesaw, as mental health issues rise, treatment accessibility sinks - especially for those of lower income. Why? You guessed it - costs. Money becomes the immovable barrier, the daunting gatekeeper to mental health care.

In fact, out of the 1 billion people reported to be suffering from mental health issues pre-pandemic, a staggering 82% resided in lower to middle-income nations, as per the World Health Organization. 

Now here’s where it gets interesting. 

Mental health tech startups saw dollar signs, raking in a remarkable $1.6 billion in venture capital by December 2020. Even bigger companies like Teladoc (TDOC) and CVS Health (CVS) are considering joining the fray.

These numbers have soared thanks to COVID-19's unwelcome spotlight on mental health. The reason is as clear as day: mounting pandemic pressures resulted in millions more Americans seeking mental health treatment, yet supply couldn’t keep pace with demand. 

Over half of all counties in the US face a dire psychiatrist shortage. With the Affordable Care Act enforcing equal coverage for mental and physical health by insurers, the yawning chasm between supply and demand is gaping wide open.

So, what does this mean for entrepreneurs? In one word: opportunity. 

The South by Southwest conference in March turned into a kind of entrepreneurial holy land, with health startups parading their innovative products and an almost evangelical belief that AI is the golden key to revolutionizing health care. 

Their vision? A world teeming with apps and machines capable of diagnosing and treating a myriad of illnesses, replacing the need for human doctors and nurses. 

An excellent example is Wysa, the mental wellness app that's been gaining popularity since its launch. It works like your pocket therapist, only free, with a charming and empathetic chatbot at your service round the clock. If you fancy human interaction, they do offer teletherapy services that could cost you $15 to $30 a week. And the best part? Your insurance might just cover it.

The appeal is undeniable: insurance firms could turn to the realm of chatbots and applications to adhere to mental health parity requirements. 

It's a tantalizing prospect, a frugal and simplistic path, especially when juxtaposed against the complex task of providing a roster of human therapists—many of whom turn up their noses at insurance, deeming the remuneration insufficient.

Let's take a moment to sift through the research - the good, the bad, and the hopeful. 

The digital age has sparked a resurgent curiosity in the realm of chatty tech buddies. I'm talking about conversational agents. Think along the lines of Apple's (AAPL) Siri, Facebook's (META) M, Amazon's (AMZN) Alexa, and the ever-familiar Google (GOOGL) Assistant - the modern version of the magic mirror on the wall. 

Evidently, chatbots are having a moment in the sun. Thanks to the significant leaps and bounds in tech advancements, these conversational agents have already scored a home run in the e-commerce and education sectors and cozied up on familiar social platforms like Facebook and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Skype. 

Now, everyone’s wondering if these chatterboxes could potentially carve out a niche in mental health management as well. 

If the 2019 independent report commissioned by the UK Government is anything to go by, these chatbots could very well be the next game-changer in mental health. It paints a picture of the near future where chatbots could be the new sheriffs in town - serving as automated or semi-automated therapeutic and diagnostic wizards.

Still, it’s best to proceed with caution. Why so? Let's dig into a bit of history.

Rewind a few decades, and we find ourselves at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with the revered professor, Joseph Weizenbaum, hailed as one of the trailblazers of AI. 

He put forth a bold proclamation at the time: AI, no matter how advanced, will never morph into a competent therapist, although it can certainly mimic one. Case in point? His own creation, ELIZA.

Crafted in the 1960s, ELIZA was a psychotherapist in machine form. Utilizing an intricate blend of word and pattern recognition as well as natural language programming, she exhibited the uncanny ability to emulate a human therapist. 

This so-called triumph in the AI sphere was met with chilling dread by Weizenbaum himself, who divulged that students were engaging with ELIZA as if she were a real-life therapist. This was a horrifying realization, given that he considered ELIZA nothing more than a parlor trick.

With uncanny prescience, he foresaw the emergence of more refined programs akin to ChatGPT. Yet, he made it clear that "the experiences a computer might gain under such circumstances are not human experiences.”

This rings true for complex emotions like anxiety or ecstasy, which are so intricately woven into our neurological framework that scientists have yet to trace their neural roots definitively. Can a chatbot attain the empathic bond between a patient and a doctor, a phenomenon known as transference, pivotal to numerous therapeutic approaches?

A startling revelation in a 2023 study published in the esteemed JAMA internal medicine journal might contradict Weizenbaum’s claim. The researchers pitted physicians against chatbots, thrusting them into an intellectual arena where 195 patient inquiries served as the battleground.

Lo and behold, our metallic friends outshone their flesh-and-blood counterparts in both quality and empathy, scoring some major points for team AI. 

But don't panic just yet, dear doctors. The researchers weren't suggesting an AI coup, just hinting at the potential of AI assistants to lend a hand, or circuit, in drafting patient responses.

The evolving AI landscape, spotlighting wonders like Chat GPT, is steadily acknowledged as a promising pathway to identify and support individuals grappling with loneliness, mild depression, or anxiety. 

And that's the beauty of our tech-rich era. 

Advancements have now made it possible for AI to assess and label emotions with remarkable precision based on factors such as a person's online activities, motion and facial expressions, phrasing and vocal nuances. 

Even if AI can't quite replicate the richness of one-on-one human counseling, it does hold enormous potential. Supporters champion its present and potential use cases as tools to augment or enhance human counseling, paving the way for a brighter future in mental healthcare. 

To me, it sounds like the dawn of an exciting new era. Let's welcome our digital therapists, shall we?

Midjourney Prompt: “Mental Health in a World of AI”

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ss-072623-mhai-c1.jpg 697 1045 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-07-26 15:48:132023-07-31 20:08:00DIGITAL EMPATHY: HOW AI IS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF MENTAL HEALTH
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 26, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(TRADING/INVESTING FROM AUSTRALIA)

July 26, 2023

Hello everyone,

If you are an investor and trader, living in Australia can have some downsides.

The most obvious is the time difference between Australia and the U.S.

Many people attempt to stay up late at night and trade the market when it opens.

My suggestion is always the same. Don’t stay up at night.

You will simply burn out from doing this. Go to bed and get up early, so you can catch the period of time before the markets close. If you get up at 5 am, you will have time to see if there has been a trade alert sent and time to enter the trade on your platform.

And if your first entry order does not get taken straight away, change the price of your next order a little, so you can find where the market is.

If you are still having trouble getting your orders taken you can always change the strike price or the expiration time. This can make things a little easier.

If you are entering a LEAPS trade, you have the luxury of time here. From the time an alert goes out on a LEAPS trade you have a few weeks to enter the trade. This is because the movement on these trades day to day is usually quite small. The only exception to this would be a large movement in the stock market that lifted all sectors.

When building a portfolio of stocks, the rule is simple. Buy small parcels at regular intervals. So, for example, you could put aside $1000 to buy stocks every month. If you have more disposable capital to play with that’s great. Just be consistent and don’t let market movements or the news sway your decision-making. Buy small parcels of your chosen stocks or what I recommend near the close of the market. That’s usually when you get the better price because the high-frequency traders are dumping their stock/trades at the end of the day.

The Fed, Bank of Japan, and ECB run the markets this week. I would not be surprised to see a .25% interest rate rise by the Fed (but that’s just how I see it).

Going forward, we could see the NASDAQ move up another 1000 points or so to make a double top at around 16000 or thereabouts. Please see the chart below.

 

 

As I’m traveling this month, I won’t be able to hold my monthly Zoom meeting. However, I will be back on deck in August and look forward to seeing you then.

Wishing you all a great week.

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 11:00:142023-07-26 11:04:44July 26, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 26, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 26, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(MY 2023 LEAPS PROGRESS REPORT)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 09:04:502023-07-26 10:48:09July 26, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

My 2023 LEAPS Progress Report

Diary, Newsletter

Lately, my followers have been screaming for more recommendations for LEAPS, or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities.

LEAPS have the identical structure as a front month vertical bull call debit spread. The only difference is that while front month call spreads have expiration dates of less than 30 days, LEAPS go out to 18-30 months.

LEAPS also have strike prices far out of-the-money instead of deep in-the-money, giving you infinitely more upside leverage. LEAPS are actually synthetic futures contracts on the underlying stock.

Of the 11 LEAPS executed during the first half of 2023, ten made money. The best so far has been the Charles Schwab (SCHW) January 2024 $60-$65 vertical bull call spread LEAPS, which is up 58% in four months.

The only loser has been the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) January 2025 $14-$15 vertical bull call debit spread LEAPS, which is down 44%. But we still have 18 months until expiration and (UNG) is certain to soar once any kind of economic recovery comes in range.

The great thing about LEAPS is that the successful trades win big, up to a few thousand percent. With the losers, you only write off the money you put up.

Of course, timing is everything in this business. I only add LEAPS during major market selloffs as the leverage is so great, over 20X in some cases.

If you would like to receive more extensive coverage of my LEAPS service, please sign up for the Mad Hedge Concierge Service where you can access a separate website devoted entirely to LEAPS. Be aware that the Concierge Service is by application only, has a limited number of places, and there is usually a waiting list.

Given the numbers below, it is easy to understand why my followers are screaming for more LEAPS.

To learn more about the Mad Hedge Concierge Service, please contact customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com

 

 

Good luck and good trading,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

The Sweet Taste of LEAPS

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/john-thomas-tiny-car.jpg 314 282 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 09:02:312023-07-26 10:49:54My 2023 LEAPS Progress Report
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 26, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

Steve Jobs offered me one third of Apple for $50,000 and I was so smart that I turned it down. It’s funny when you think about it now, except when I’m crying,” said Nolan Bushnell, the founder of game company Atari and Jobs’ first employer.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Nolan-Bushnell.jpg 259 362 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-26 09:00:472023-07-26 10:47:04July 26, 2023 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 25, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 25, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE NEXT INVESTMENT DARLING)
(VRTX), (CRSP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-25 17:02:322023-07-25 17:54:01July 25, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Next Investment Darling

Biotech Letter

The pandemic stage lit a blazing spotlight on healthcare and biotech warriors like never before. Some biotech heroes, taking on the gauntlet of grave or lethal ailments, are still setting the market ablaze.

You see, the world's population isn't getting any younger, and diseases aren’t going away. These elements strap an ironclad defense around the healthcare sector - come hell or high water in the economy, the drumbeat of demand won't miss a beat.

One name in the biotechnology and healthcare sector that’s snubbing the bear market's growl with its groundbreaking panaceas is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Widely considered an underdog in the sector, Vertex has been an overachiever for the past decade, running circles around the market. But guess what? The San Diego champ is also primed to repeat that glorious run over the next ten years.

Vertex has carved out its healthcare niche, nurturing a blossoming franchise in the world of cystic fibrosis treatments. The company's yearly sales are closing in on the dizzying heights of $10 billion.

While other Big Pharma names are staring down the barrel of a patent cliff later this decade, Vertex has shown that it’s playing the long game. Their cystic-fibrosis arsenal is locked and loaded till the mid-2030s at least, and they've got a robust pipeline of drugs chugging along nicely.

Specifically, its blockbuster drug Trikafta won't face the treacherous patent cliff until 2037. With its history of turning the complex task of developing CF therapies into child's play, Vertex has lorded over this territory for over a decade. Adding more feathers to its cap, Vertex is poised to bag fresh non-CF approvals, a move that will spice up its offerings and rev up its growth engine.

Not one to rest on its laurels, Vertex, along with Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP), is on the brink of clinching approval for a gene-editing treatment for red blood cell disorders such as sickle cell disease. The stage is set at this point, and the companies are patiently awaiting the green signal for exa-cel from Uncle Sam and our European friends across the pond.

Exa-cel, the brainchild of Vertex and CRISPR Therapeutics, is a game-changer in gene-editing therapy for rare blood diseases. But this ain't a one-trick pony. Vertex has more rabbits in the hat.

The company's brewing up a storm, geared towards hitting a home run by launching five new products within the next five years. Ambitious? You bet.

As Vertex's cystic fibrosis (CF) business continues to stride forward and the pipeline remains robust, a steady uptick in revenue and earnings is on the cards. The company stands tall, ready to deliver market-beating performances for some time to come.

Sure, the stock is inching closer to its 52-week zenith, but make no mistake - it's still a good catch, even at this high watermark.

Moreover, Vertex is far from being the wallflower at the party. The stock has leaped a whopping 25% this year, outpacing the respectable 18% gain of the S&P 500. The drug giant is the belle of the ball, sporting a market cap north of $90 billion.

Taking a cue from its CF monopoly, Vertex will kick things up a notch, potentially establishing a monopoly in the world of pain relief. The company should get its moment in the spotlight by year's end when clinical trial results for its ground-breaking non-narcotic drug for pain roll out.

Operating under the code-name VX-548, this trailblazer from Vertex intercepts pain signals in the peripheral nerves, outside the central nervous system. The modus operandi is somewhat akin to the topical drug lidocaine, but with a twist.

While lidocaine takes a toll on the heart when ingested, VX-548 sidesteps this issue, making it safe to pop as a pill. Plus, as it doesn't monkey around with the brain, it avoids the slippery slope of opioid addiction. Now, that's what I call a win-win.

Naysayers may voice doubts about the willingness of insurance companies to foot the bill for Vertex's high-priced, newfangled pain drug instead of sticking to the generic opioids or other neurological drugs usually prescribed.

But I don’t buy into the skepticism. There’s a huge possibility that the insurers will. The reason? The mounting political and public relations pressure will essentially force these organizations to back a non-opioid contender, given it can duke it out toe-to-toe in terms of effectiveness.

Given the market for this, VX-548 stands to amass a revenue jackpot of a whopping $5 billion by 2032.

Sure, the healthcare sector isn't going the way of the dodo anytime soon. But rest on your laurels, and you'll be yesterday's news. It's a dog-eat-dog world out there, and if healthcare companies don't stay ahead of the curve, they risk being left in the dust.

This is where Vertex shines as a leader and innovator in its corner of the healthcare world. Keep an eye on this stock. It has the potential to deliver some handsome returns over the next decade.

 

vertex healthcare

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-25 17:00:282023-07-31 21:00:47The Next Investment Darling
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (WPM) July 25, 2023 - BUY LEAPS

Mad Hedge AI

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-25 13:02:592023-07-25 13:11:36Trade Alert - (WPM) July 25, 2023 - BUY LEAPS
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