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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(The big end of town makes big bucks from the poor in the U.S.)

July 14, 2023

 

Hello everyone,

The markets are marching higher for now, until the next drama hits.

So, for now, skies are blue and the sun is out.

Come May, it may be a different story.

But let’s double down on the state of economic inequality in the U.S. It hasn’t really changed in the last 50 years. Who benefits? Big institutions and corporate America.

Matthew Desmond, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, has a new book out called Poverty, by America, which explores why the U.S. poverty rate hasn’t improved in half a century. Around 11% of the U.S. population was considered poor in 2019; 12% was considered poor in 1970.
His previous book, Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City, won the 2017 Pulitzer Prize for general nonfiction.

 

 

In his latest book, Desmond explores the reason for the stagnation in the poverty rate and suggests that many Americans and corporations profit from tens of millions of people having so little. Banks make billions a year in overdraft fees. Companies can pay their workers low wages and save on benefits.

Desmond argues that when you look at inflation-adjusted earnings, ordinary workers have seen their pay tick up just 0.3% a year for several decades. So, in other words, the real wages for many Americans today are roughly what they were 40 years ago.

 

 

If you analyse the data from the U.S. Census Bureau and other sources, Desmond shows that 1 in 18 people in the U.S. live in what’s considered “deep poverty” or what he calls “a subterranean level of scarcity.”

In 2020, this included people making less than $6,380 a year, or families of four living on less than $13,100. In 2020, almost 18 million people in America lived in these conditions, including some 5 million children.

The racial wealth gap is just as wide as it was 50 years ago.
In 2019, the median white household had a net worth of $188,200, compared with $24,100 for the median Black household. Desmond writes that “our legacy of systematically denying Black people access to the nation’s land and riches has been passed from generation to generation.”

 

 

Overdraft fees are mostly paid by the poor.

In 2019, Desmond found that the largest U.S. banks charged Americans $11.68 billion in overdraft fees.  Just 9% of those account holders paid the lion’s share, 84%, of those charges – customers who carried an average balance of less than $350.  In other words, the poor were made to pay for their poverty is how Desmond sees it.

 

 

With Inflation the way it is – many of us probably feel that our wealth is being chewed up.  The volatility will continue throughout the year in the markets, and we will see those without substance and longevity hung out to dry. 

Just in:  NY grand jury indicts Trump.

Have a great weekend.

Cheers,

Jacque

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 17:00:422023-07-14 17:34:35July 14, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BAD TECH EARNINGS ARE PRICED IN)
(AAPL), (TSLA), (AMZN), (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 16:04:092023-07-14 17:09:22July 14, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bad Tech Earnings Are Priced In

Tech Letter

There are many so-called “experts” and “economists” dumping on the upcoming tech earnings season.

I got it – they won’t be the best ever.

No need to beat a dead horse when it’s down.

They say that the optimism of a soft landing for the economy is dissipating as stubbornly high inflation keeps central banks hawkish.

It’s hard to believe that tech stocks have been on a tear in 2023 during a period of hawkishness.

Higher for longer luckily has not affected tech stocks yet, yet many are saying this earnings season could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

I must admit, at the intro level such as venture capitalism and start-ups, the rate environment has been nothing short of catastrophic.

Investors aren't giving money for just ideas anymore.

The good news is that at the incubator level, nobody cares because these paltry numbers don’t move the stock market and are decades away from going public.

It doesn’t matter to the tech market that the next Amazon or Facebook has a tough time borrowing with these sky-high rates.

Nobody cares because most people hold Apple and Tesla stock.

I am also willing to call B.S. on the negativity for the upcoming tech earnings season and will say it should be just fine.

I am not diminishing the belt-tightening going on inside the offices, it certainly is happening.  

Tech companies are hunkering down, which is true because the low-lying fruit has been plucked off the branch.

42% of respondents from a recent survey said the biggest negative for the earnings season will be the impact of further tightening of financial conditions.

I would say that if that is the biggest risk out there to respondents, then tech shares will certainly end the year higher from today.

There’s also a widespread belief that earnings per share (EPS) will fall off a cliff and then rebound to growth in the final three months of the year, according to data by Bloomberg Intelligence.

This seems like the perfect setup for tech executives to lower the bar.

While the tech rally was boosted by the hype around artificial intelligence, over 70% of survey participants say the impact of AI on tech earnings is overblown.

Amid the gloom, the biggest positive drivers for equities will be any signs of easing inflation and cost cutting, according to the majority of those surveyed.

Ultimately, it has already been baked into the pie that margins will come under pressure as companies lose the ability to keep raising prices when inflation cools and as growth slows.

That doesn’t mean there will be anything more than a technical and orderly pullback which I have been championing for.

A result like that would be healthy for tech stocks.

Tech shares simply cannot go up in a straight line forever, but they keep defying gravity in the first 7 months of the year.

Even if the big 7 tech stocks signal some downshifting revenue trajectories, it won’t be more than a few days' drop in shares signifying a marvelous opportunity to finally get into some of these premium names that rarely offer optimal entry points.

Expect nothing special from this earnings season and buy any garden variety dip from premium tech stocks.

 

tech stock earnings

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 16:02:072023-08-01 14:38:24Bad Tech Earnings Are Priced In
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - July 14, 2023

Tech Letter

“If you’re offered a seat on a rocket ship, don’t ask what seat.” – Said Former COO of Meta Platform Sheryl Sandberg

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/sandberg-shery.png 230 250 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 16:00:042023-07-14 17:11:06Quote of the Day - July 14, 2023
Douglas Davenport

THE AI GOLD RUSH

Mad Hedge AI

(MSFT), (NVDA), (ORCL), (AMZN), (CRM), (PLTR), (MDB), (AAPL), (IBM), (META), (ADBE), (SNOW), (AI), (V), (MA), (SCHW), (KO), (PEP), (YUMC), (WMT), (JWN), (LEVI), (ULTA)

This year, the tech sector has been leading the stock market's grand parade, and riding on the high-tech float right at the front are the champions of AI. Wall Street is practically falling over itself, trying to calculate the colossal profit potential that these AI titans hold.

As investors sharpen their understanding of the colossal $800 billion AI spending tsunami gathering momentum, they're gearing up for a tech rally in the latter half of 2023.

Actually, the gold rush has only just begun, and we're all eager to see who strikes it rich. At this stage, the situation is comparable to the internet's infancy in 1995, rather than a 1999-style bubble. 

Unsurprisingly, the limelight—and the juicy stock hikes—have been snatched by the usual suspects hailing from Silicon Valley, those names that roll off our tongues when we speak of software and cloud innovation. Consider Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA)—they've breezed past the broader market like it's standing still.

By 2024, though, we might witness AI occupying a sizable chunk of IT budgets - think 8% to 10%, rocketing up from a mere 1% in 2023. 

Don't take my word for it. Instead take a gander at the all-star list of potential players in this AI-dominated field. It's chock-full of familiar juggernauts, starting with the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft, extending to Oracle (ORCL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Salesforce (CRM), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), MongoDB (MDB), Apple (AAPL), International Business Machines (IBM), Meta Platforms (META), Adobe (ADBE), Snowflake (SNOW), and C3.ai (AI).

Amidst a chorus of naysayers fretting over tech valuations and a fluctuating macro environment, this is nothing less than the starting gun for a spanking new tech bull market barreling into 2024. And the engine powering this locomotive? The AI revolution, with a side of stable IT spending.

But hold on. It's not just the tech behemoths getting in on the action. A host of companies, from consumer staples to healthcare and financials, are eagerly welcoming AI into their operations.

Giants on American soil like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) have roped in AI to keep a hawk-eyed vigil for fraud and identity theft. Add Charles Schwab (SCHW) to the mix, where AI is the secret sauce to spicing up customer service. 

Yet, it’s not only a fintech affair. 

Many other sectors are guzzling the AI Kool-Aid to good effect. Take beverage bigwigs Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP), for instance. They’re harnessing AI to peer into the crystal ball of consumer behavior and whip up marketing masterpieces. And Yum China (YUMC)? They're putting AI to work to streamline delivery routes.

Meanwhile, retail behemoth Walmart (WMT) stands as a proud trailblazer in the AI game, outpacing rivals with its voracious tech appetite. 

Although the application of AI in retail might be in its early days, but mark my words, it's poised to transform the entire shopping spectrum, often taking consumers by surprise, and triggering purchases they didn't even anticipate.

That’s why It should come as no surprise that other retailers dabbling in apparel, accessories, and beauty are also itching to deploy AI sooner rather than later. 

Nordstrom (JWN), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are obvious pioneers, based on their recent showcases in industry conferences. After all, the perfect fit for footwear or the exact lipstick hue, even in the virtual world, can avert hefty return expenses and foster customer fidelity.

Now let's zoom out a bit. AI's influence is creeping into our daily lives more and more, be it the goods we see on store shelves or how we shop. The reach and potential threats of AI are still to be completely understood, given the breakneck speed at which the technology is evolving. 

But one thing's crystal clear: AI is a game-changer in practically all industries.

As we navigate this new world, let’s keep in mind that "understanding the potential limitations of Generative AI and using it judiciously is critical for both companies and investors."

Even though it might be a tad premature to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of winners and losers, there are clear indications of certain companies striding ahead, while others may be staring down the barrel of potential threats to their existing business models.

In other words: buyer beware. Well, until our robot overlords convince us otherwise.

 

Midjourney Prompt: "AI gold rush"

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-14-150640.png 580 875 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-07-14 14:56:322023-07-14 15:08:51THE AI GOLD RUSH
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(SATURDAY, AUGUST 5, 2023 ROME, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 09:06:022023-07-14 17:01:15July 14, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

SOLD OUT - Saturday, August 5, 2023 Rome, Italy Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Luncheon, Newsletter

 

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Rome, Italy at 12:30 PM on Saturday, August 5, 2023. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $286.

I’ll be arriving on time and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive private restaurant in the heart of historic Rome, right on the beautiful Piazza Navona. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. 

To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click the BUY NOW! button above or click here.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/rome.jpg 324 452 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-14 09:04:092023-07-31 14:55:42SOLD OUT - Saturday, August 5, 2023 Rome, Italy Global Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 13, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 13, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A ROCKY ROAD TO REDEMPTION)
(BIIB), (ESALY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-13 16:02:402023-07-13 23:15:29July 13, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Rocky Road to Redemption

Biotech Letter

In an era marked by dynamic biotech developments, Biogen (BIIB) had once emerged as an industry powerhouse, the fruitful labor of its innovative multiple sclerosis drugs catapulting revenues into the stratosphere.

Unfortunately, time revealed a looming issue as the company's marquee products confronted diminishing exclusivity: stagnation.

Confronted by the precipice of change, Biogen made a strategic pivot toward the complex world of Alzheimer's disease. In partnership with the Japanese pharmaceutical giant Eisai (ESALY), they trailblazed the development of Leqembi, a game-changer that recently bagged the much-coveted traditional approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The stamp of approval from federal authorities signifies a significant advancement towards broadening the drug's reach. Earlier in the year, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services pledged to shoulder a considerable portion of the cost of Leqembi, contingent on the FDA's full authorization.

This commitment brings relief to aging American beneficiaries of Medicare, lightening the load of the drug's yearly $26,500 bill.

Armed with the FDA's endorsement and CMS agreeing to shoulder most of the expenses, there is anticipation that thousands, if not tens of thousands, of Alzheimer's patients across the US will be prescribed either lecanamab or donanemab in the imminent years.

But a question remains: Will this approval be sufficient to invigorate BIIB, a stock that has languished in the doldrums for the past decade?

Leqembi has been projected to become a blockbuster in a few years, with its total sales expected to exceed $12 billion from 2023 to 2028. Although Biogen and Eisai will be splitting the profits, Leqembi's potential as a significant asset for Biogen cannot be overlooked.

The imperative to treat Alzheimer's disease is grave, considering the current 6 million Americans living with the condition, a figure which could potentially burgeon to 13 million by 2050.

Disturbingly, this affliction claims more elderly lives than breast and prostate cancer combined.

In relation to this, the worldwide Alzheimer's therapeutics market is estimated to record a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% stretching into 2030, when it is anticipated to hit a worth of around $15.6 billion.

Eisai had earlier projected that Leqembi's peak sales could rake in a lucrative $7.3 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, experts believe the figure would be closer to $13 billion.

So, why didn't Biogen's shares experience a bounce on the back of this news?

They actually dipped by 3.5% in the trading session, and overall, the stock has remained relatively stable this 2023.

The answer lies in what happened last autumn when Biogen saw a nearly 40% surge in a single day when it announced Leqembi's successful achievement of clinical trial objectives. Given the positive data, investors largely anticipated an approval, suggesting that this recent positive update was already baked into the stock price.

What then about the future revenues?

Considering that Biogen isn’t exactly launching an “everyday pill,” there might be issues to resolve first.

Before commencing the treatment, patients would require PET scans or lumbar punctures for a confirmed diagnosis. Following this, Leqembi is to be administered at infusion centers -- a process that could potentially face capacity issues. These factors imply that rolling out Leqembi and getting all potential patients on the treatment might be a gradual process.

Biogen also anticipates that this year, the costs associated with bringing Leqembi to the market will eclipse the revenue it generates. As such, this novel product poses a short-term challenge and will likely dampen growth in 2023.

Should you then put money in Biogen stocks?

Answering this query isn't straightforward as it hinges on your risk appetite. It's possible that hurdles such as infusion center inadequacies can be overcome -- Biogen's vast experience places them in a strong position to address these.

However, the crux of the matter revolves around whether the medical community and patients will embrace the treatment, a point of uncertainty and risk.

For the thrill-seeking investor who embraces unpredictability, Biogen could offer an appealing opportunity at the moment.

If their new drug, Leqembi, attains success, the long-term potential for the stock's rise is significant.

For the more reserved investor, though, waiting for clearer signs of acceptance from doctors and patients might be a safer play. As for me, I suggest waiting and buying the dip.

 

biogen leqembi

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-13 16:00:392023-08-01 14:11:44A Rocky Road to Redemption
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 13, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 13, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trades:

(TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2023 FLORENCE, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT)

 

CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-07-13 09:06:402023-07-13 13:46:47July 13, 2023
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