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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 20, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(CRYSTAL BALL GAZING INTO 2024 & REMEMBERING EVENTS IN 2023)

December 20, 2023

 

Hello everyone,

I wrote recently how most analysts expect the market to continue its rally into 2024.   One bank has already raised its stock market forecast for 2024 and is now saying that the S&P500 will rise 8% to 5,100 by year-end.  That bank is Goldman Sachs.  But it turns out that Goldman is not even the most bullish.  Oppenheimer Asset Management chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus has argued that stocks can rally more than 10% to 5,200 next year.   His thesis centers around earnings and revenue, which he expects will continue to grow during what he calls a “year of transition” for stocks as the Fed loosens up on interest rates.

We all know that markets don’t move up in a straight line and setbacks are always likely.  Those investors with patience and perseverance should see gains over the intermediate and long term. 

So, let’s look back on the year that was.

In February, the Chinese spy balloon episode threatened a dangerous escalation in trade and military tension between the world’s two largest economies.  By the spring, the collapse of a series of regional American banks, and the demise of Credit Suisse, seemed to have ushered in a tough era of monetary policy – where climbing interest rates were unleashing havoc in the most indebted parts of the conventional and shadow banking systems.  At the halfway point in 2023, there was warranted panic over the state of China’s indebted local government authorities and housing sector – that it would require a decisive fiscal response from Beijing’s Communist Party.

As we have witnessed, Beijing has muddled through with piecemeal responses to stimulate its sluggish economy; Europe hasn’t suffered a mass exodus of its industrial base to the US; and the financial system weathered the tremors from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse while withstanding further monetary tightening. 

Let’s be optimistic and look at some of the other economic developments worth celebrating at the end of this year.

The US and the UK may get a soft landing in 2024.  Consumer prices in the UK have been stubbornly high, but it is finally coming into line.

What is particularly notable is the still-modest number of people who have been made unemployed over the past year.  In the UK and the US, higher interest rates are not forcing companies to lay off workers, but instead withdraw the record number of vacancies they had been posting since 2022.  This has created a more benign environment where the sharpest edge of monetary policy is hitting unfilled jobs rather than existing ones.

David Zervox at Jefferies argues that these conditions will be enough to lead central banks into “victory cuts” to borrowing costs next year.

Another reason for quiet celebration that is often overlooked is the state of the world’s emerging markets.  No debt crisis has arisen in any of the economies—countries such as Brazil, South Africa. Mexico and India have learned from past errors and have built up war chests of foreign reserves to protect themselves from acute debtor distress.

Countries like Peru, Chile, and Romania are among those that began raising interest rates at the first sign of inflation – far ahead of their richer Western counterparts.  So, no emerging market debt crisis is to be seen.

The Bank of Japan will likely end seven years of negative interest rates at the start of 2024 with minimal market disruption – a move that seemed unthinkable a few years ago.

Holiday fever and festive cheer are now gripping most of us.  Here’s to a great 2024.

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 20, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 20, 2023
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(A CHRISTMAS STORY),
(THE U-HAUL INDICATOR)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 19, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 19, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(HIDDEN IN PLAIN SIGHT)

(VRTX), (CRSP), (NVDA), (GOOGL), (AMZN), (AAPL), (META), (MSFT), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-19 12:02:552023-12-19 10:27:47December 19, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Hidden In Plain Sight

Biotech Letter

In the high-pressure game of stock market investments, where volatility is the norm and certainty a luxury, the Nasdaq Composite’s 36% uptick this year is nothing short of remarkable.

The credit largely goes to the “Magnificent Seven” – a septet of tech behemoths comprising Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA). These giants have not just captured the market’s imagination; they've powered its ascent.

However, while these tech titans have been capturing the spotlight, there's been a different kind of giant, hidden in plain sight, quietly making significant strides in a sector just as crucial as technology – biotechnology and healthcare.

This is where Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) emerges, a standout performer in the industry, demonstrating that groundbreaking innovation and solid investment opportunities aren't exclusive to the tech world.

The tech sector's rebound this year, following a tumultuous 2022, wasn't just luck. It was a confluence of a resilient economy and consumer spending that stayed robust.

This buoyancy proved a boon for the Magnificent Seven, whose fortunes often mirror economic trends. Apple's case is illustrative. Its iPhones, a blend of luxury and necessity, see fluctuating demand based on economic health.

But Vertex operates on a different plane.

Vertex specializes in life-saving drugs for cystic fibrosis (CF). This isn't a market swayed by economic tides. CF patients depend on the company’s drugs, literally, for survival.

What's more, Vertex is the only game in town for these medications. This unique position grants Vertex significant pricing power, ensuring stable financial performance, come rain or shine.

Now, let’s zoom in on Trikafta, Vertex’s CF superstar.

This is not just another drug; it’s a lifeline, a revenue juggernaut with 13 years of patent protection left.

While rivals scramble to find footholds in CF therapy, Vertex is already eyeing the next big thing: a once-daily treatment, promising more convenience than Trikafta’s twice-daily regimen.

In short, Vertex isn’t just leading the CF market; it's redefining it.

Vertex's ambition doesn't end with CF. The company is making bold strides in pain management with VX-548, a potential opioid alternative. This pill is a beacon of hope in a field littered with failed attempts at non-opioid pain solutions. The recent Phase 2 study results? Encouraging. The study revealed significant pain reduction in patients with chronic neuropathic pain.

But there's more. Vertex is also pioneering gene-editing therapies. Its latest triumph is Casgevy, developed with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

This treatment, a potential cure for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT), recently received UK approval. It’s a complex treatment, not a simple pill. This complexity translates to both a high price and a shield against generic competition. With an initial target market of 32,000 patients, Vertex is looking at a potential goldmine.

Contrast this with the struggles of smaller gene-editing firms. Vertex stands out with its deep pockets and negotiation expertise. It's not just about developing groundbreaking therapies; it's about successfully bringing them to market. As it has shown over the years, Vertex’s prowess in this arena is unrivaled.

Of course, biotech is a realm of high risks and high rewards.

Vertex is no stranger to setbacks. Remember October 2020? The company saw its shares plummet by over 15% in a day after discontinuing a promising program. But it's the rebound that tells the story. Since then, Vertex’s shares have soared, making that drop a mere blip in its upward trajectory.

In the pantheon of biotech, Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a rare breed. It's a company that has not only conquered the CF domain but is also making significant inroads in pain management and gene editing. The financials are solid, the pipeline robust, and the market potential vast. Its collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics on Casgevy is just one example of its strategic foresight.

So while the Magnificent Seven continue to dominate headlines, Vertex Pharmaceuticals emerges as a compelling, if quieter, story. It’s a narrative of a company not content with leading just one market but expanding its prowess into new, uncharted territories. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-19 12:00:532023-12-19 10:27:35Hidden In Plain Sight
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 19, 2023

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 19, 2023
Fiat Lux


Featured Trade:

(TESTIMONIAL),
(WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION DEBT?),
($TNX), (TLT), (TBT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-19 09:06:252023-12-19 10:07:39December 19, 2023
Douglas Davenport

AI Reboots the Stock Market: A Glimpse into the Algorithmic Future

Mad Hedge AI

The stock market, a bustling ecosystem governed by volatile fluctuations and shrewd maneuvers, is undergoing a fundamental shift. Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer a curious newcomer peering through the trading window; it's swaggering onto the floor, algorithms in hand, and ready to redefine the game. But will robots reign supreme, relegating human traders to historical relics, or will we witness a harmonious dance of silicon and synapses, each amplifying the other's strengths?

Beyond the Data Crunch: AI's Visionary Edge

AI's greatest weapon in this arena is its insatiable appetite for data. Companies like Kensho, a Goldman Sachs brainchild, devour mountains of financial reports, news articles, and even social media chatter, using natural language processing and machine learning to glean hidden gems of insight. They anticipate market trends before human analysts can even decipher headlines, pinpointing undervalued stocks and even sniffing out potential market manipulation. Imagine uncovering the next Tesla before analysts catch wind, all thanks to AI's precognitive prowess.

Algo Aficionados: Precision Trading on Autopilot

But AI isn't just a data vacuum cleaner, it's a master strategist. Many platforms are available to empower users to unleash the power of machine learning, crafting and backtesting intricate trading algorithms that remove emotion and guesswork from the equation. These algorithmic assassins can exploit fleeting arbitrage opportunities, capitalize on market inefficiencies with lightning-fast trades, and execute complex strategies with unwavering discipline. Picture yourself wielding an AI-powered scalpel, slicing through market inefficiencies with surgical precision.

Human-AI Tango: A Powerful Duet

However, the future isn't a zero-sum game where robots waltz off with all the profits. AI's true strength lies in its potential to become a potent partner, amplifying human expertise and intuition. Companies like Sentifi offer a fascinating glimpse into this symbiotic future. Their platform marries AI-powered sentiment analysis with human expertise, providing investors with a comprehensive picture of market sentiment and risk factors. Imagine having an AI whisper in your ear, deciphering the emotional undercurrents of the market and guiding your investment decisions with a blend of machine-derived insights and human wisdom.

Navigating the Ethical Minefield: Building a Responsible Future

While the potential of AI in the stock market is undeniable, the path ahead is paved with ethical landmines. Algorithmic opacity, potential biases, and the risk of exacerbating market volatility are all valid concerns. Companies like OpenAI are leading the charge in responsible AI development, advocating for transparency, fairness, and human oversight. This is crucial to ensure AI doesn't become a Frankenstein monster of the financial world, but rather a force for good, democratizing access to information, increasing market efficiency, and unlocking new avenues for financial prosperity.

The future of AI in the stock market is a dynamic tableau, brimming with both opportunity and challenge. It's a story where robo-traders and seasoned investors share the stage, their collective intelligence navigating the ever-shifting landscape with unprecedented precision and insight. So, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a thrilling ride, for the dance between AI and human ingenuity is just beginning, and the financial world will never be the same.

Remember, this is just the first act of a fascinating play. Stay tuned for future developments in AI-powered trading, ethical frameworks, and the evolving relationship between humans and their algorithmic partners. The stock market might just become the most compelling reality show on Wall Street.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2023-12-18 14:37:412023-12-18 14:37:41AI Reboots the Stock Market: A Glimpse into the Algorithmic Future
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 18, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 18, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE TRUTH ABOUT AUTOMATION AND WALL STREET JOBS)
(AAPL), (GOOGL), (FB), (AMZN), (NFLX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-18 14:04:372023-12-18 16:14:28December 18, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Truth About Automation And Wall Street Jobs

Tech Letter

Automation is taking place at warp speed displacing employees from all walks of life.

According to a recent report, the U.S. financial industry will depose 200,000 workers in the next decade because of automating efficiencies.

Yes, humans are going the way of the dodo bird and banking will effectively become algorithms working for a handful of executives and engineers.

The x-factor in this equation is the direct capital of $150 billion annually that banks spend on technological development in-house which is higher than any other industry.

Welcome to the world of lower costs, shedding wage bills, and boosting performance rates.

We forget to realize that employee compensation eats up 50% of bank expenses.

The 200,000 job trimmings would result in 10% of the U.S. bank jobs getting axed.

The hyped-up “golden age of banking” should deliver extraordinary savings and premium services to the customer at no extra cost.

Mobile and online banking has delivered functionality that no generation of customers has ever seen.

The most gutted part of banking jobs will naturally occur in the call centers because they are the low-hanging fruit for automated chatbots.

A few years ago, chatbots were suboptimal, even spewing out arbitrary profanity, but they have slowly crawled up in performance metrics to the point where some customers are unaware they are communicating with an artificially engineered algorithm.

The wholesale integration of automating the back-office staff isn’t the end of it, the front office will experience a 30% drop in numbers sullying the predated ideology that front-office staff are irreplaceable heavy hitters.

Front-office staff have already felt the brunt of downsizing with purges carried out in 2023 representing a fifth year of decline.

Front-office traders and brokers are being replaced by software engineers as banks follow the wider trend of every company transitioning into a tech company.

The infusion of artificial intelligence will lower mortgage processing costs by 20% and the accumulation of hordes of data will advance the marketing effort into a smart, hybrid cloud-based, and hyper-targeted strategy.

Historically, a strong labor market and low unemployment boosts wage growth, but national income allocated to workers has dipped from about 63% in 2000 to 56% in 2023.

Causes stem from the deceleration in union membership and outsourcing has snatched away negotiating power amongst workers and the implemented mass automation has poured fat on the fire.

I was recently in Budapest, Hungary on a business trip, and on a main thoroughfare, a J.P. Morgan and Blackrock office stood a stone’s throw away from each other employing an army of local English proficient Hungarians for 30% of the cost of American bankers.  

Banks simply possess wider optionality to outsource to an emerging nation or to automate hard-to-fill positions now.

In this race to zero, companies can easily rebuff requests for higher salaries and if they threaten to walk off the job, a robot can just pick up the slack.

Automation is getting that good now!

The last two human bank hiring waves are a distant memory.

The most recent spike occurred 7 years after the dot com crash of 2001 until the sub-prime crisis of 2008 adding around half a million jobs on top of the 1.5 million that existed then.

The longest and most dramatic rise in human bankers was from 1935 to 1985, a 50-year boom that delivered over 1.2 million bankers to the U.S. workforce.

This type of human hiring will likely never be seen again in the U.S. financial industry.

Recomposing banks through automation is crucial to surviving as fintech companies are chomping at the bit and even tech companies like Amazon and Apple have started tinkering with new financial products.

The brutal truth out there is sadly; don’t tell your kid to get into banking, because they will most likely be feeding on scraps at that point.

 

WALL STREET IS LEANER THAN EVER

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/deutsche-bank.png 540 946 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-18 14:02:362023-12-18 11:12:50The Truth About Automation And Wall Street Jobs
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 18, 2023 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“There are seven billion people in the world. And I think phones are the first time most people will have access to a modern computing device. With Android, we want to enable that for people.” – Said CEO of Alphabet Sundar Pichai

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/pichai.png 279 310 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-12-18 14:00:342023-12-18 11:12:44December 18, 2023 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 18, 2023

Jacque's Post

 

(MARKETS ARE OVERBOUGHT AS THEY COUNTDOWN TO YEAREND)

December 18, 2023

 

Hello everyone,

Calendar for Week Ahead

Monday, Dec. 18

10 a.m. ET NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday, Dec. 19

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (November)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (November)

Earnings:  FedEx

Wednesday, Dec. 20

8:30 a.m. Current Account (Q3)

10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (December)

10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (November)

Earnings:  General Mills, Micron Technology

Thursday, Dec. 21

8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price final (Q3)

8:30 a.m. GDP (Q3)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (12/16)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (December)

10 a.m. Leading Indicators (November)

Earnings:  Nike, CarMax

Friday, Dec. 22

8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (November)

8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (November)

8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (November)

8:30 a.m. Personal Income (November)

10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (December)

10 a.m. New Home Sales (November)

One week until Christmas.  Happy Holidays.  If you have family around and go all out on the gift-giving and the food, I wish you well and hope the day is memorable for all the right reasons.

Me. I prefer to go to the beach, take an esky, an umbrella, a beach towel, a good book, and soak up some sun and enjoy the warm ocean water.  No stress, no hassle, no family arguments.  Just a really chill day.

So, at this time of year, the markets are starting to wind down.  We have had a great bull move over the last couple of months, and I hope many of you have made good profits this year.

Stocks last Friday registered their seventh straight week of gains.  For the S&P 500, that’s the best winning streak since 2017.  For the DOW, it’s the best going back to 2019.

This week coming is expected to be a slower one.  With the last Fed meeting of 2023 behind us, we are heading into the holidays with few catalysts.  But let’s remember, any indication the Fed may not start to cut rates as they suggested in 2024 could hurt stocks.  Just stay mindful of this.  It will be several data points during the next several months that ultimately matter.

Some notable earnings to look out for include FedEx on Tuesday and General Mills on Wednesday.  Results from retail company Nike are also on deck Thursday and should give investors insight into the state of the consumer, as well as clarity into markets abroad, particularly China.

Most investors expect stocks to continue the rally into the final part of the year in the so-called Santa Clause Rally.  In other words, the stretch between Christmas Day – Dec. 25 through to January 2.

The rally is broad, and so is lifting all boats.  But we are very overbought.

With this in mind, let’s look at some of the most overbought names in the market right now.

Boeing (BA)

FedEx (FDX)

D.R. Horton (DHI)

Equifax (EFX)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

BA climbed about 8% last week.  The company announced leadership appointments over the course of the week with Stephanie Pope chosen as operations chief and Brian Moran as sustainability chief.  The stock has soared more than 38% this year.  Two out of every three analysts have a buy rating on (BA), however, the average analysts expect shares to slide lower in the next 12 months following recent gains.

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-12-18 12:00:582023-12-18 11:09:40December 18, 2023
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