When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(EDITING YOUR PORTFOLIO)
(CRSP), (VRTX), (BLUE), (BEAM), (CRBU), (EDIT), (NTLA), (PRME), (VERV), (LLY), (REGN)
In the world of biotechnology, the buzz these days is all about gene editing – a frontier that’s moving at warp speed.
While the journey from sequencing the first human genome took a staggering 13 years, companies like CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) have sped up the process, bringing their revolutionary "molecular scissors" concept to market in a mere decade.
It's a thrilling time for investors, with the potential for staggering returns, but the path is littered with clinical and regulatory landmines. This turns choosing the best stocks to put your money into a tricky challenge.
Recently, the FDA gave the green light to two groundbreaking gene therapies for sickle cell disease, developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) in collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics and by Bluebird Bio (BLUE).
This disease, predominantly affecting African-American communities in the U.S., has been a target for medical advancement for years.
While the approval is a landmark, it's not without its tremors. Bluebird Bio's stock took a nosedive by 33.9%, triggered by the FDA’s warning label about potential cancer risks linked to their treatment.
In contrast, the treatment by Vertex and CRISPR dodged such warnings, possibly giving it an edge in the eyes of prescribing doctors.
And then there’s the money side of things. Bluebird Bio missed out on a priority review voucher from the FDA, which they were hoping to sell to Novartis for a cool $103 million. That's a tough break.
Meanwhile, the Vertex and CRISPR therapy, now known as Casgevy, boasts the honor of being the first FDA-approved drug using the trailblazing Crispr/Cas9 technology. It's a Nobel Prize-winning innovation that's finally reaching the patients it promises to help.
The approvals of Casgevy and Bluebird Bio’s Lyfgenia, which arrived earlier than expected, mark a significant moment for patients with sickle cell disease.
Although priced in the millions, these treatments offer a potential one-time cure, replacing the traditional, complex regimens. Unfortunately, they are not without their challenges, involving intensive procedures, lengthy hospital stays, and chemotherapy.
This brings us to the investment side of things.
The gene-editing arena is brimming with potential, but it's akin to navigating a labyrinth. With no specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focusing solely on gene editing stocks, investors might feel like they're trying to find their way in the dark.
However, a diversified approach could be the lantern in this darkness.
Companies like Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Prime Medicine (PRME), and Verve Therapeutics (VERV) are some of the key players in this space, each with its unique technological platform.
But it's not just the pure-play gene editors that are worth your attention. Giants like Eli Lilly (LLY), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals have thrown their hats into the ring, making substantial investments in gene editing.
So, how should you play this? If it were my money, I'd spread it around.
Put a chunk in leaders like CRISPR and Intellia. Then, combine these with established players like Eli Lilly, Regeneron, and Vertex to provide a safety net, balancing out the inherent risks of this high-stakes biotech game.
On the other hand, companies like Beam and Verve, representing the next wave of this technology, should not be overlooked, though perhaps with a more conservative stake.
And here's a little hedge for you: keep an eye on smaller players like Caribou Biosciences and Editas Medicine. In this high-stakes game, they could be your ace in the hole.
The gene-editing industry is a roller coaster of innovation, risk, and potential. It's a sector where fortunes can be made and lost in the blink of an eye.
For the savvy investor, a diversified, strategic approach, blending the bold with the stable, could be the key to unlocking the vast potential of this exciting field.
Remember, as with any investment, the key is not just in choosing the right horses but knowing how to spread your bets across the race.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
December 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JACQUIE MUNRO JANUARY 10, 2024 MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES)
I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco’s Sony Metreon Center.
Their goal was to put together 400 of the most forward-thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened.
It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman.
Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during their vicious civil war in the early eighties, when working as a journalist meant not knowing if you would wake up the next morning.
Tom worked for the old United Press International, and I for the still prospering Economist.
Our mutual friend, the Associated Press’s Terry Anderson, the best man at my wedding, was kidnapped out of his apartment and held hostage by Shiite Hezbollah militants for five years, an ordeal he described in chilling detail in his book, Den of Lions.
You know Tom as the controversial and kibitzing resident of the Times Op-ed page.
He popularized the concepts of globalization and a flat world in a series of groundbreaking, best-selling books, including The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Hot, Flat, and Crowded, and That Used To Be Us.
I managed to speak to dozens of guests and gained a fascinating read from many different viewpoints of our long-term future.
I shall try to distill what I learned in a few lines without any particular attribution. I am always shopping for a new framework with which to view our rapidly evolving planet, and I was not disappointed.
The merger of globalization and information technology has been the most important development of this century. The new hyperconnectivity is changing the world at a breakneck speed that few understand.
In the days of old, you needed an entire country to impact the global economy. Then, only a corporation was required, starting with the Dutch East India Company in the 1600’s. Now, all it takes is a laptop computer or smartphone with a broadband connection.
Several disparate trends came together during the nineties to enable this revolution.
The PC made possible the authoring of content in digital form. The Internet is distributed globally for free. Workflow software allowed the residents of this potential Tower of Babel to seamlessly talk to each other.
Google gave us unlimited free searches, permitting us to all find each other.
A dozen years ago, 5G was a parking space, Skype was a typo, the cloud was in the sky, Twitter was a sound, Facebook didn’t exist, and big data was a rap group.
Today, the collapse of storage costs has ushered in big data and super-empowered innovators. High-speed Internet is even available at the summit of Mount Everest.
If the entire world were a math class, the grading curve would just rise steeply for everyone.
“Average” is officially dead.
When Tom’s predecessor, James Reston, went to the office 30 years ago, he wondered what his seven competitors at the major national newspapers would write that day.
Now Tom wonders what his 70 million competitors will write. He is writing for the readers in Chengdu as much as he is writing for the ones in Chicago.
Employment prospects for kids these days are particularly challenging. They have to be innovation-ready and not job-ready.
In fact, the whole concept of a “job” is rapidly dying out. People have to think like newly landed immigrants: unconnected, hungry, and paranoid, but still optimists.
We need to always be in “beta” mode, endlessly improving our value added to the global economy. The moment you think you’re finished, you are finished.
A lot of people will tell you how to invest your 401k, but no one will tell you how to invest in yourself.
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is one of the few resources that does this, teaching readers how to prosper in the financial markets independent of the establishment.
The US will not cut or spend its way out of the current economic malaise. It will invent its way out. An accelerating rate of innovation will eventually soak up our current excess workers.
America is now the place where everyone around the world comes to launch their moon shot.
That is great for business and explains the tidal wave of new capital pouring into this country.
In the meantime, we need to bolster our safety nets, like Medicare and Social Security, as they will be in much greater demand in this independent world.
I will write more about the conference in the coming days, with carve-outs on specific topics. The outlook for technology is truly unbelievable.
Two Old Warhorses
In the intricate dance of maintaining healthy finances, predicting cash flow and customer payment behavior often feels like staring into a crystal ball. But for service-based businesses, navigating these uncertainties can be especially treacherous. Enter Certinia, a company leveraging the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to illuminate the path forward, transforming cash flow and customer payments from cryptic mysteries to clear-cut insights.
Certinia's AI, aptly named "Certinia AI," isn't just a sprinkle of technological dust. It's a meticulously crafted suite of capabilities woven into the very fabric of its platform. This deep integration allows Certinia AI to seamlessly analyze vast swathes of data, from historical invoices and payment records to project details and resource allocation. This potent blend of information fuels its predictive engine, generating forecasts with uncanny accuracy.
Imagine this: instead of agonizing over opaque spreadsheets, finance teams can now rely on Certinia AI's cash flow forecasting to anticipate future inflows and outflows with remarkable precision. This newfound clarity empowers them to make informed decisions, from optimizing resource allocation to negotiating payment terms. No more scrambling to cover unexpected shortfalls or letting precious cash languish idle. With Certinia AI, financial planning becomes proactive, not reactive.
But the magic doesn't stop there. Certinia AI tackles the age-old enigma of customer payment behavior with equal finesse. Its AI models delve into the labyrinthine history of each customer, unearthing hidden patterns in their payment habits. Days to pay, payment seasonality, and even potential red flags for delinquency are all brought to light, allowing for targeted interventions and proactive collection strategies. No more chasing invoices or dreading the inevitable late payment scramble. With Certinia AI, collections become a dance of personalized reminders and well-timed nudges, fostering stronger customer relationships and ensuring timely payments.
The benefits of Certinia AI aren't confined to the finance department. The ripple effect extends to every corner of the service organization. Project managers gain invaluable insights into potential risks and resource bottlenecks, enabling them to proactively mitigate issues and deliver projects on time and within budget. Service delivery teams benefit from precise margin optimization, ensuring profitability and maximizing client satisfaction. And leadership? They gain a crystal-clear view into the organization's financial health, allowing them to make data-driven decisions that steer the company toward sustained success.
But what truly sets Certinia AI apart is its transparency. Unlike the opaque, black-box nature of some AI solutions, Certinia AI sheds light on its decision-making process. The user interface provides clear explanations of how predictions are arrived at, empowering users to understand, trust, and ultimately leverage the insights provided. This transparency fosters a collaborative relationship between humans and AI, where both work in harmony to navigate the financial landscape.
Certinia's AI journey isn't a static snapshot. It's a continuous evolution, with the company actively developing new use cases and refining existing capabilities. From streamlining workflows to automating tedious tasks, Certinia AI is constantly pushing the boundaries of what's possible, all with the singular goal of empowering service-based businesses to thrive in an ever-changing world.
In conclusion, Certinia AI represents a paradigm shift in how service-based businesses manage their finances. It's not just a tool; it's a trusted partner, illuminating the path towards financial stability and growth. By harnessing the power of AI, Certinia is not just predicting the future of cash flow and customer payments – it's actively shaping it, ensuring that service businesses are not just surviving, but thriving in the age of intelligent automation. So, the next time you find yourself staring into the crystal ball of cash flow and customer payments, remember Certinia AI. It might be the key to unlocking a future of financial clarity and success.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 13, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(RIVIAN SPEEDS UP)
(RIVN), (TSLA)
One company I am quite bullish on is EV maker Rivian (RIVN).
They make great cars, but they also lose money by the fistful.
How bad is it?
Rivian lost $1.19 a share in Q3, less than feared, while revenue jumped 149% $1.34 billion.
The EV startup produced 16,304 vehicles and delivered 15,564 vehicles in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Rivian booked a loss of $30,648 per vehicle delivered in Q3, down from a loss of $139,277 per unit delivered a year ago.
Going from losing $140,000 to $30,000 is a big jump and these are eye-popping losses.
The more important takeaway is that big investors are sticking with RIVN as the cash burn improves.
The real hard work is reducing the loss for each car to zero because many variables are working against RIVN.
Then there is the competition and by that I mean Tesla’s Cybertruck.
RIVN shares surged the day after Tesla began initial deliveries of its Cybertruck.
The company also announced it will allow more customers beyond — Amazon (AMZN), which remains a key buyer — to purchase its commercial electric vans.
Rivian raised its 2023 production guidance to 54,000 electric vehicles, up from 52,000 in August.
The company tied the hike to "progress experienced on our production lines, the ramp of in-house motor line and the supply chain outlook."
Tesla offers three trims of the Cybertruck, with the rear-wheel drive version starting at $60,990 with a 250-mile range. The base model will be available in 2025, according to Tesla's website.
The all-wheel drive version has a starting price of $79,990 with 340 miles of range. Tesla is also offering a top-end trim, called the Cyberbeast, starting at $99,990 with a 320-mile range. Both the all-wheel drive version and the Cyberbeast have 2024 deliveries.
Four years ago, Tesla announced the price would start at $39,900 with Chief Executive Elon Musk previously saying he wanted to price the base model under $50,000.
Originally, Tesla and Musk stated the tri-motor Cybertruck would have 500 miles of range with the dual-motor model managing 300 miles and the base rear-wheel version getting 250 miles per charge.
Tesla’s Cybertruck has an eccentric design that could turn off a lot of buyers and funnel them into interest for a RIVN.
Not only is the design extreme, but Musk is asking for more than the $50,000 he first quoted.
RIVN is cheap, to begin with, but it will be able to compete with Tesla’s Cybertruck in price and quality.
Supply-chain issues have hampered the entire industry. Rivian has also had problems of its own complicate its launch.
Rivian is not likely to be profitable for a while it scales out manufacturing.
RIVN burns around $1 billion in cash per quarter, and yet the company is still nowhere near hitting the mass production rates which would achieve a more competitive cost structure.
Another painful bottleneck is the sizable increases in the cost of key metals, including lithium, nickel, aluminum, and cobalt.
Even though they lose $4 billion per year, investors are patient with this company.
Patience stems from the fact that RIVNs are great cars and surely will improve the product.
If RIVNs start to fall in quality then I would expect a massive exodus from the shares which will hit the price of shares.
Until that narrative is broken, I believe RIVN will be bought on dips.
