Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 11, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HEALTHCARE GIANTS GO SHOPPING)
(JNJ), (MRK), (AMAM), (PFE), (HARP), (NVS), (CYTK)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 11, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HEALTHCARE GIANTS GO SHOPPING)
(JNJ), (MRK), (AMAM), (PFE), (HARP), (NVS), (CYTK)
Ah, San Francisco, the city of fog and fabulous biotech and healthcare feasts. In case you missed it, the J.P. Morgan annual healthcare conference, the biotech Super Bowl, just kicked off this January.
Imagine a bustling downtown San Francisco, where hotels are as jam-packed as a can of sardines, but instead of fish, they're brimming with investors and healthcare execs.
Let's focus on the biotech sector, which, let's be honest, has seen its fair share of ups and downs. The past three years? More like watching paint dry.
But, as if by magic, we've seen a recent upturn. A two-month price surge that’s as unexpected as it is welcome.
The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), our financial barometer here, has gone from a nosedive (down over 60% since February 2021) to a rocket ship (up nearly 40%). Interest rate cuts and M&A buzz are like the Red Bull in this energy drink mix.
Now, to the heart of the story: big pharma's shopping spree.
The day of surprise comes when Merck & Co. (MRK) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) strut in with deals that leave us wide-eyed.
And these are not just any deals, but the kind where these healthcare giants are practically throwing money like it's going out of style – over 100% premiums over the last prices. It's like offering to pay double for a house just because you love the wallpaper.
Johnson & Johnson swoops in on Ambrx Biopharma (AMAM) for a cool $2 billion. At $28 per share, they're paying a 105.4% premium.
For context, this isn't your run-of-the-mill biopharmaceutical company. Oh no, Ambrx is more like the Elon Musk of the biotech world, innovating like there's no tomorrow.
This biotech is all about cooking up some of the most cutting-edge therapies out there – think antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other engineered marvels that give the immune system a superhero makeover.
On top of that, Ambrx actually has a secret weapon – their expanded genetic code technology platform called Engineered Precision Biologics (EPBs).
This technology isn't just smart; it's Einstein-level genius. It brings together site-specific conjugation with proprietary linkers and payloads. It's like building a custom-made luxury car, except this one's designed to obliterate cancer.
Researchers are raving about Ambrx's ADCs, calling them “guided missiles.” And they're not exaggerating.
These bad boys zero in on cancer cells with the precision of a sniper, taking them out without wreaking havoc on the innocent bystanders – the healthy tissue. It's pretty much like having a Swiss watch in your medical arsenal, sleek, sophisticated, and super effective.
Impressively, Ambrx isn't stopping at just being a one-hit wonder. They're pushing the envelope with enhanced antibody-drug conjugate, immuno-oncology conjugate, and bispecific candidates. These aren't just treatments; they're potential game-changers in the war against cancer.
So, when Johnson & Johnson ponied up $2 billion for Ambrx, they weren't just buying a company; they were investing in a future where cancer might just meet its match.
In fact, Pfizer (PFE) recently grabbed Seagen for $43 billion in 2023, just to get a slice of this ADC pie. It's the latest fashion in cancer treatment, and everyone wants in.
Meanwhile, Merck, not to be outdone, grabs Harpoon Therapeutics (HARP) for $680 million, a 118% premium at $23 per share. It's a biotech-feeding frenzy, and Merck's got its teeth out.
Harpoon is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company that's not just playing in the big leagues, but changing the game. They're all about developing a novel class of T-cell engagers, and let me tell you, this stuff is like the Navy SEALs of cancer treatment.
Imagine these T-cell engagers as tiny, engineered proteins. They're like undercover agents directing a patient’s own T-cells (the body's immune commandos) to seek and destroy cells waving the bad guy flag – specific proteins or antigens carried by those nasty cancer cells.
Basically, it's like having a GPS-guided missile system in your body, targeting only the rogue cells.
And Harpoon isn't just dabbling here, but also innovating with their proprietary Tri-specific T cell Activating Construct (TriTAC) platform.
Picture a pipeline, but instead of oil, it's flowing with novel TriTACs focusing on laying siege to solid tumors and blood malignancies. If successful, they plan to arm the immune system with a whole new arsenal.
Aside from these, Harpoon also whipped up something they call the ProTriTAC platform. Think of it as the James Bond of T-cell engagers – it stays under the radar (inactive) until it gets to the tumor. Once there, it's “license to kill” mode on. This prodrug concept is slick, ensuring that the therapeutic action happens right where the trouble is, and not anywhere else.
And for their third act, Harpoon presents the TriTAC-XR platform. This one's a bit of a tightrope walker, designed to dodge a potential pitfall known as cytokine release syndrome – a sort of overreaction from the immune system. It’s like having a safety net under your high-wire act.
Now, these premiums are not just showing off. They're a sign of desperate love from big pharma for these biotech beauties, a stark contrast to the recent cold shoulder of stock market blues.
Recently, there have also been whispers of Novartis (NVS) eyeing Cytokinetics (CYTK), a biotech belle with a $9.2 billion price tag. It's like the gossip at a high school prom, only with more zeros.
So, what's the takeaway from this biotech bazaar? It's simple: after a snooze-fest of a bear market, biotech's back, and it's hotter than a stolen Ferrari.
For investors, it's like watching a new season of your favorite show, only this time, the plot twists involve billion-dollar deals and cutting-edge cancer drugs. I suggest you buy the dip.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
January 11, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I HAVE A NEW OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(TESTIMONIAL)
There are only two ways that subscribers give up the Mad Hedge Concierge Service. They either retire, or they die.
I am sorry to report that that former has taken place.
Lifetime concierge member Ira Alcheck long envied me for my adventures. After making a fortune from my trade alerts during the regional banking crisis in March he finally decided to take the plunge and take his extended family on a Western Mediterranean cruise from the Rome Italy cruise port of Civitavecchia.
On the first day out, his entire family was seated for lunch at a long table when he suffered a massive heart attack. Ira was dead before he hit the ground.
I didn’t find out about this tragedy until my return from Ukraine last week. That’s when Ira’s wife stopped crying long enough to call. Ira was a 35-year friend and one of the ace accountants in the hedge fund industry.
He will be missed.
Regrettably, that means I have a new opening for the Mad Hedge Concierge Service. I limit the service to only ten clients at any one time and entry is by application only.
The goal is to provide high-net-worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.
It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support its own in-house global strategist full-time.
The service includes the following:
1) Emergency access to John Thomas 24/7 through his personal cell phone number so he can act as your investment 911.
2) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.
3) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.
4) Personal meetings with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions.
5) Early releases of strategy letters and urgent trading information.
6) More detailed and early recommendations on LEAPS, or two-year call options on the best high growth names.
7) Access to a dedicated Concierge website listing complete All LEAPS investment portfolios.
The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $12,000 a year.
To best take advantage of my Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, you should possess the following:
1) Be an existing subscriber the Mad Hedge Fund Trader who is already well aware of our strengths and limitations.
2) Have a liquid net worth of over $250,000.
3) Possess a degree of knowledge and sophistication of financial markets. This is NOT for beginners.
To subscribe to Mad Hedge Fund Trader Concierge Service, please email Filomena at customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put “Concierge Candidate” in the subject line.
I look forward to hearing from you.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
2023 on the Queen Mary 2
Materials are the building blocks of our world, from the sleek screens we swipe to the life-saving implants in our bodies. But this foundation of technology and medicine is undergoing a revolution, driven by the relentless innovation of artificial intelligence (AI). No longer mere passive elements, materials are becoming programmable and purpose-built, tailored for specific needs with an unimaginable degree of precision. This article delves into the fascinating world of AI-powered materials development, showcasing real-world companies spearheading this transformative journey.
Unveiling the Secrets: AI as a Chemist
Traditionally, discovering new materials has been a slow and laborious process, often relying on serendipity and trial and error. But AI is changing the game by acting as a virtual chemist, sifting through massive databases of existing materials and their properties. Armed with algorithms trained on quantum mechanics and other physics simulations, AI can predict how atoms and molecules interact, revealing the hidden potential within uncharted territory.
For example, the company Intellegens uses AI to analyze millions of potential molecules, filtering them based on desired characteristics like conductivity, flexibility, or thermal stability. This rapid virtual prototyping allows them to identify promising candidates for applications like organic photovoltaics or flexible electronics, significantly accelerating the discovery process.
Building the Dream: Engineering Atoms from Scratch
Once a promising material is identified, the next challenge is designing its structure at the atomic level. This is where AI truly shines, acting as a master architect, manipulating the arrangement of atoms to achieve specific performance goals. Companies like NVIDIA are developing powerful AI tools that can optimize material structures for desired properties, such as maximizing strength-to-weight ratios or tailoring electrical conductivity.
Imagine lightweight aircraft wings forged from AI-designed composites, or batteries with ten times the current capacity, all thanks to the meticulous craftsmanship of virtual atom-smiths. These are no longer futuristic fantasies; they are the tangible possibilities unlocked by AI-powered materials engineering.
Beyond the Lab: AI Takes Materials to the Factory Floor
The magic doesn't stop in the virtual world. AI is also transforming the physical process of materials synthesis and manufacturing. Companies like Samsara are developing AI-powered platforms that optimize production processes in real-time, automatically adjusting factors like temperature, pressure, and chemical inputs to ensure consistent, high-quality materials.
Think of it as a self-driving factory floor, where AI acts as a watchful guardian, constantly monitoring and fine-tuning the production process to minimize waste and maximize yield. This not only translates to cost savings but also opens the door to the creation of previously impossible materials with complex, multi-layered structures.
Medical Marvels: AI tailors materials for the body
The impact of AI-powered materials extends far beyond the realm of gadgets and gizmos. In the field of medicine, AI is helping to create biocompatible materials that seamlessly integrate with the human body. Companies like Stryker are utilizing AI to design personalized implants for joint replacements, ensuring a perfect fit and reducing the risk of rejection.
Imagine AI-designed artificial limbs that mimic the flexibility and strength of natural bone, or wound dressings that accelerate healing by actively interacting with the body's tissues. These are the life-changing possibilities that AI-powered materials hold for the future of healthcare.
Challenges and Promises: The Road Ahead
While the potential of AI in materials development is immense, there are still hurdles to overcome. The complex interplay of material properties and real-world conditions requires continual refinement of AI algorithms and simulation models. Additionally, ethical considerations regarding the environmental impact and unintended consequences of novel materials must be carefully addressed.
Despite these challenges, the future of materials is undoubtedly interwoven with the threads of AI. As research progresses and collaboration between scientists, engineers, and technology developers strengthens, the materials of tomorrow will not be mere passive substances, but active participants in shaping a brighter, more sustainable, and healthier world.
Links to Companies Using AI for Materials Development:
This is just a glimpse into the transformative power of AI in materials development. It is a journey fueled by scientific curiosity, relentless innovation, and a shared vision for a future where materials, like AI itself, are tools for building a better tomorrow.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 10, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LITHIUM CRATERS)
(TSLA), (NIO), (RIVN), (LCID)
EVs were the darling of tech until the hype ran out.
How do I know this?
The price of lithium has nosedived.
The lack of interest is undermining projects, nixing deals, and triggering a scramble for cash that has put a damper on the EV industry.
If anyone thought that EVs would really move the needle for tech, then think again because tech is over-reliant on AI to save the day in 2024. Throw in the Fed pivot too.
Lithium has dropped by 80% in price since the end of 2022 signaling a dramatic slowdown in the electric vehicle market.
The demand for this product isn’t what it used to be.
Sure, there are those (TSLA) lovers in big coastal cities who can’t get enough of the product, but these types max out at 3 Teslas and sit on them until an upgrade a few years later.
With inflation wreaking havoc in every part of American society, this promises to elongate the refresh cycle for tech products like iPhones and Teslas.
Nickel and cobalt have also tumbled, weighed down by an influx of new production amid concerns that the shift to EVs may not be as smooth and quick as predicted.
It’s a dramatic reversal from the froth of recent years that sent prices soaring and sparked a rush by some of the auto industry’s biggest players to secure future supply.
Chemaf Resources Ltd. last year put itself up for sale after a slump in the cobalt price left it struggling to finish key projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and London-based Horizonte Minerals Plc scaled back work on its Brazilian nickel mine as it searches for funds to complete construction, and announced an emergency $20 million financing late last year.
Building new mines takes years and sometimes decades, and stalled projects can often be hard to restart. And while most crucial battery markets are now in surplus, shortages are already forecast toward the end of the decade as the greening of the economy accelerates.
In the case of lithium — a once-tiny commodity market that has been catapulted into the global spotlight due to its vital role in EV batteries — the extreme boom and bust of the last few years shows the difficulties in trying to forecast future supply-demand balances and prices, for both producers and their investors.
Yet supply charged ahead as demand growth underwhelmed, and the price won’t come back for years.
It’s highly possible that lithium could be in a drought until close to 2030.
Cobalt has lost two-thirds of its value since a recent peak in 2022, with top-two supplier Glencore Plc forced to build stockpiles of the metal.
Nickel tumbled 45% last year, weighed down by a flood of low-cost supply from Indonesia, where new techniques to produce battery-grade material are threatening to completely upend the industry.
Jumping off the EV bandwagon, the consumers aren’t impressed as much, and snagging the next incremental EV buyer has become hard.
The bad is out there for everybody to see such as the annoyance of running out of electricity and not getting those software updates properly.
Consumers are starting to remove those rose-tinted glasses and look at Ev's dark side too.
This explains why Tesla was discounting its vehicles so aggressively because management sensed the lack of desire from new buyers.
Unfortunately, this could be a bust year for Tesla as they give way to software companies to carry the load. Smaller EV firms like Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID) are some that I would avoid. Nio (NIO) is another EV company in free fall. I would say stay away from the EV sector in the short term.
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