“Startups on the inside are always badly broken.” – Said CEO of ChatGPT Sam Altman
“Startups on the inside are always badly broken.” – Said CEO of ChatGPT Sam Altman
(CHECKING IN ON MARKET SECTORS)
February 14, 2024
Hello everyone,
Markets suffered a jolt early in the week after the January inflation report showed stubborn inflation is a thorn in the side for the Fed. So, the question is not only when the Fed will cut rates, but by how much. March is definitely off the table, as is May. We were all expecting June to be the month we could see the Fed cutting, but let’s not write it in ink yet.
So, markets are off their highs. Will that pullback continue? In the short term – I believe so.
The Chinese New Year is celebrated from the 10th to the 24th of February, and we are in the Year of the Wooden Dragon.
U.S. dollar – there is more upside ahead for the dollar. Therefore, we will see further downside in the Euro, Aussie dollar, Kiwi and the metals.
Gold – as the dollar moves up gold will continue to correct. This is the time to be accumulating positions in Gold. Keep averaging into stocks (GOLD), (GDX), (WPM), (SIL), (SLV) and building more out-of-the-money LEAPS positions in GOLD and other stock positions.
Spot gold 1951 – 1965 is a very good purchasing area in gold. Keep buying all the way down to this zone in Gold.
After these lows we are headed up to new highs.
Daily gold spot chart
Look for targets in gold at levels 2191, 2370 and 2547.
Gold defends against inflation and market corrections.
Silver – like gold, expect more weakness. Spot silver 2068 – 2100 = strong buy territory.
Daily spot silver chart
Nasdaq – we hit 18,000 and almost immediately the market turned on its heel.
Next support levels are 17407 and 17140. Strong support line at 16774.
Nasdaq 100 Daily chart
Bitcoin – target is $57,885. $40,000 offers strong support.
Daily Bitcoin chart
Cheers,
Jacquie
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 14, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(MSFT), (AMZN), (V), (PANW), (CCJ)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own five deep-in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, February 16 and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves the:
Current Capital at Risk
Risk On
(MSFT) 2/$330-$340 call spread 10.00%
(AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread 10.00%
(V) 2/$240-$250 call spread 10.00%
(PANW) 2/$260-$270 call spread 10.00%
(CCJ) 2/$38-$41 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
NO POSITIONS
Total Net Position 50.00%
Total Aggregate Position 50.00%
I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Amazon (AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread which I will almost certainly run into expiration.
Provided that we don’t have another monster move down in the market in two trading days, this position should expire at its maximum profit point.
So far, so good.
Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.30 cost = $0.70 net profit
(25 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.70 profit per option)
= $1,750 or 16.28% in 27 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning February 19 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter's end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
You Can’t Do Enough Research
“Of course, you never go broke taking a profit, but you never get rich either, because a good portion of what you make goes to taxes,” said legendary value investor Ron Baron.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 13, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PILL PUSHERS IN PERIL)
(CVS), (WBA), (RADCQ), (SBUX)
Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant 1980s, national pharmacy chains sprouted up across the American landscape like mushrooms after a rainstorm.
They nestled into every nook and cranny of our lives, from the bustling urban streets to the tranquil rural towns, becoming as ubiquitous as the local diner.
Fast forward to 2010, and their numbers had climbed from 18,600 to a staggering 22,500.
It was a golden era for these giants. Like a high school jock on prom night, Walgreens (WBA) and CVS Health (CVS) were on top of the world. Their share prices did the financial equivalent of bench pressing 300 pounds, ballooning to about 14 times their original size between 1995 and 2015, while the S&P 500 merely did a respectable fourfold increase.
Walgreens' wallet got a lot thicker, going from a total revenue of $42.2 billion in 2005 to a hefty $103.4 billion a decade later.
CVS wasn't far behind, with its treasure chest growing from $37 billion to an eye-watering $153.3 billion.
But as the saying goes, what goes up must come down. Today, the once invincible giants are feeling the squeeze, like a middle-aged man trying to fit into his high school jeans.
The tale of woe includes Rite Aid's (RADCQ) bankruptcy bow in October 2023, CVS's share price taking a more than 30% nosedive over two years, and pharmacists so fed up they're leaving their posts faster than rats from a sinking ship.
The crux of their dilemma? A dwindling stream of reimbursement rates from the pharmacy benefit managers, akin to trying to drink a milkshake through a cocktail straw.
Walgreens saw its adjusted operating income from its U.S. retail pharmacy division shrink by 31.1%, from $5.4 billion in 2016 to a more modest $3.7 billion in 2023.
In a similar bind, CVS saw its profits dip, leading to a drastic measure: closing up shop on hundreds of stores.
Despite these turbulent times, the enduring importance of chain pharmacies in the U.S. healthcare system cannot be overstated. They continue to play a crucial role, dispensing everything from life-saving medications to the latest in blood pressure tech.
The question now is, what's next for these once mighty titans? So far, we can see that both CVS and Walgreens are attempting a Hail Mary, broadening their healthcare horizons in hopes of justifying their sprawling presence across the nation.
Over the coming years, a significant transformation is expected to happen to Walgreens and CVS, with the brands likely to streamline their presence. With an extensive network of physical outlets, these companies are confronted with the inevitable: the need for a massive workforce and substantial resources, all of which escalate operational costs and complexities.
In an age where efficiency is king — think Starbucks (SBUX) with its pivot to drive-thru exclusives — it stands to reason that Walgreens and CVS might steer in a similar direction.
Actually, Walgreens has already dabbled in new solutions like drone delivery, a venture that aligns perfectly with the future of quick and efficient distribution of essentials, including medicines, to its customer base.
The next thing to consider is how dramatic this downsizing will be. Looking a decade ahead, we can anticipate a considerable shrinkage in their storefronts, possibly with a shift towards more compact, delivery- and pick-up-friendly formats.
As they move forward with these changes, one thing remains clear: the landscape of American healthcare and retail is evolving, and with it, these pharma giants need to adapt or risk being left behind in the annals of history, remembered as nothing more than relics of a bygone era.
The stories of these national pharmacy chains are far from over, but the next chapters promise to be as unpredictable as they are compelling. So grab your popcorn. This is one show you won't want to miss.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
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