Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 14, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A BIG RISK WITH AI)
($COMPQ)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 14, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A BIG RISK WITH AI)
($COMPQ)
What makes AI mesmerizing and, at the same time, weird is the fact that the technology is accessible to everyone.
Remember when computers were so expensive only a handful of people like Bill Gates had one.
This time it’s different.
AI isn’t like that since it’s a piece of software used on a laptop and the cost of computers has trended lower over the generations.
From simple text or image-generating bots to highly sophisticated machine learning algorithms, people now have the power to create large volumes of realistic content at their fingertips which is one manifestation of AI.
The problem with this is that it underpins illegal activities and encourages scams.
With the help of natural language generation tools, fraudsters can put out vast quantities of texts containing false information quickly and efficiently.
This AI-generated content with false or inaccurate data manages to find its way into places that matter.
In fact, it's possible to create entire websites populated by fake news that drive massive organic traffic and, thus, generate massive ad revenue.
One notch down from straight-up scams is a public feeding frenzy over artificial intelligence companies and stocks that encourage some companies to make hyped-up claims.
I would be extremely reticent of overseas companies that have a history of not protecting tech companies from IP theft like China.
China and digital media don’t go too well together, because much of the content is “borrowed” and from now on it will be AI-produced.
It could be the case that many of these scams will originate from the East.
That’s one part of the world that will use AI to take corporate shortcuts and when they can take an inch, they usually take a million miles.
If a company is raising money from the public, though, it needs to be truthful about its use of AI and associated risks.
They also shouldn’t lie about whether they use an AI model or how they use AI in specific applications.
The media has consistently been highlighting AI as an existential threat and that means at the business level too.
As nefarious actors deploy AI in ways that create reckless or knowing disregard for the risks to investors, this could increase the cost of doing business
It also could have a knock-on effect where people just don’t trust what is on the internet at all anymore and will simply remove themselves from it.
By that time, this might turn out to mean removing themselves from their VR headsets in 2030, but the impact is the same.
Tech firms ($COMPQ) can only spin profits if the consumer spends half their time on a device and if that goes away, these companies go away too.
Ultimately, tech companies need to be careful how they deploy AI and how the spread of AI affects them at the business level, but also at an existential level.
There’s still a chance that AI could destroy a lot of what has made American corporations so strong after the 2nd world War.
In fact, it could end up like a virus gutting the spirit in which tech firms can do business and obviously, the most to lose are the biggest and most successful tech firms.
On the flip side, AI could become a force of good and boost profits 100-fold if used in the right way, but there is still a real chance AI will ruin Silicon Valley.
“Startups on the inside are always badly broken.” – Said CEO of ChatGPT Sam Altman
(CHECKING IN ON MARKET SECTORS)
February 14, 2024
Hello everyone,
Markets suffered a jolt early in the week after the January inflation report showed stubborn inflation is a thorn in the side for the Fed. So, the question is not only when the Fed will cut rates, but by how much. March is definitely off the table, as is May. We were all expecting June to be the month we could see the Fed cutting, but let’s not write it in ink yet.
So, markets are off their highs. Will that pullback continue? In the short term – I believe so.
The Chinese New Year is celebrated from the 10th to the 24th of February, and we are in the Year of the Wooden Dragon.
U.S. dollar – there is more upside ahead for the dollar. Therefore, we will see further downside in the Euro, Aussie dollar, Kiwi and the metals.
Gold – as the dollar moves up gold will continue to correct. This is the time to be accumulating positions in Gold. Keep averaging into stocks (GOLD), (GDX), (WPM), (SIL), (SLV) and building more out-of-the-money LEAPS positions in GOLD and other stock positions.
Spot gold 1951 – 1965 is a very good purchasing area in gold. Keep buying all the way down to this zone in Gold.
After these lows we are headed up to new highs.
Daily gold spot chart
Look for targets in gold at levels 2191, 2370 and 2547.
Gold defends against inflation and market corrections.
Silver – like gold, expect more weakness. Spot silver 2068 – 2100 = strong buy territory.
Daily spot silver chart
Nasdaq – we hit 18,000 and almost immediately the market turned on its heel.
Next support levels are 17407 and 17140. Strong support line at 16774.
Nasdaq 100 Daily chart
Bitcoin – target is $57,885. $40,000 offers strong support.
Daily Bitcoin chart
Cheers,
Jacquie
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
February 14, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(MSFT), (AMZN), (V), (PANW), (CCJ)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own five deep-in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, February 16 and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This involves the:
Current Capital at Risk
Risk On
(MSFT) 2/$330-$340 call spread 10.00%
(AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread 10.00%
(V) 2/$240-$250 call spread 10.00%
(PANW) 2/$260-$270 call spread 10.00%
(CCJ) 2/$38-$41 call spread 10.00%
Risk Off
NO POSITIONS
Total Net Position 50.00%
Total Aggregate Position 50.00%
I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Amazon (AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread which I will almost certainly run into expiration.
Provided that we don’t have another monster move down in the market in two trading days, this position should expire at its maximum profit point.
So far, so good.
Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.30 cost = $0.70 net profit
(25 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.70 profit per option)
= $1,750 or 16.28% in 27 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning February 19 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter's end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
You Can’t Do Enough Research
“Of course, you never go broke taking a profit, but you never get rich either, because a good portion of what you make goes to taxes,” said legendary value investor Ron Baron.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 13, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PILL PUSHERS IN PERIL)
(CVS), (WBA), (RADCQ), (SBUX)
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