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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 31, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 31, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(CONSOLIDATION TIME)
(MSFT), (PINS), (NVDA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-31 14:04:282024-07-31 14:21:45July 31, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Consolidation Time

Tech Letter

The Nasdaq experiencing a big dip is in fact healthy for the tech sector long term.

Shaking out the weak hands is necessary a few times per year.

It doesn’t hurt that tech stocks boast the higher growth rates in the entire stock market.

The price action has suggested a winner-take-all mentality with winners like Nvidia and other big tech companies experiencing outsized gains.

Chip stocks have been recent victors while smaller software stocks have been pounded.

Just take a look at social media stock Pinterest (PINS) which is down over 12% on a weak forecast.

At the top end, Microsoft (MSFT) is the perennial flag bearer of cloud growth but this time it was different.

The stock sold off hard after earnings because the company missed cloud revenue expectations.

Cloud has been MSFTs bread and butter for years.

Even the CEO Satya Nadella came from the cloud division to grab the title of CEO.

Microsoft's overall cloud revenue came in at $36.8 billion, in line with expectations of $36.8 billion, but the company's Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes its Azure services, fell short, coming in at $28.5 billion versus expectations of $28.7 billion.

While Microsoft's cloud business missed expectations, overall revenue still rose 21% year over year. Intelligent Cloud revenue, meanwhile, increased 19% year over year. What's more, Microsoft said AI services contributed 8 percentage points of growth to its Azure and other cloud services revenue, which increased by 29%.

The most consistent theme in this round of checks was the number of customers and partners that cited share gains by Microsoft resulting from its early lead on the AI front.

During Alphabet’s earnings call, CFO Ruth Porat said the company spent $13 billion on capital expenditures, up from $12 billion in the prior quarter, adding that the vast majority of that spending is going toward AI.

There are data points showing that growing the cloud is becoming something more similar to stealing rival clients from Google or Amazon.

That is a worrying sign because total addressable cloud revenue has been going up for a whole generation.

The cloud industry has never seen a scarcity mentality.

In the earnings rhetoric, the management talked as if growth is harder to come by in 2024.

I would be hard-pressed to find anyone who disagrees with that opinion.

The overall consensus starting to form is that these growing expenses related to AI won’t produce the blockbuster revenue projected so quickly.

The more likely case is that revenue from AI comes online in late 2025 or 2026 or maybe not at all.

The delay in the benefits of AI will mean shareholders pulling back temporarily and offer AI stocks a “prove it” period to show if they are legit or not.

Before winter, I do expect a consolidation phase in tech and in AI stocks that will set the stage for a Santa Claus rally.

MSFT stock is up over 200% in the past 5 years, and although this 11% or so dip in the past month is very unlike MSFT, this is a healthy and orderly dip.

I am still bullish MSFT in the long term.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-31 14:02:382024-07-31 14:21:34Consolidation Time
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 31, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(EXAMINING THE TECHNICALS IN NVIDIA (NVDA) AS WE NAVIGATE THE MID-SUMMER STOCK SWOON)

July 31, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

The long-awaited summer vacation has arrived for the stock market.   Stocks are at the mercy of investors who decided one day that they wanted to own something different rather than just technology stocks.  So, the sell button was decidedly pushed en mass, and funds then poured into a variety of other sectors, most notably small caps, and interest-sensitive sectors, which include home builders, health, and energy stocks. Of course, this movement has a lot to do with rate cuts that are not too far away.

But also, the tech sector is taking a healthy break.  This sector has run very hard at what seemed like 12-cylinder horsepower. Eventually, a rest is needed.  We are witnessing a broadening of the market as we head into the final months before the U.S. election takes place.

One of the stock favorites in the tech sector is Nvidia (NVDA).  It is one stock that has definitely been on a sprint to the stars and is now taking a much-needed rest.   Using Inside Edge Capital charts, let’s take a deeper dive into how that stock looks from a technical perspective, and where we might see significant support levels.

Firstly, let’s look at the 200-day moving average, shown in the dotted blue line in the chart below.   You will notice that it is trending higher, and the stock price is still well above the 200-day MA.    The stock is still in a well-established up trend.  Since it broke above the MA in January 2023 NVDA is still around 540% higher since that move even after the recent sell-off.

 

 

There is a possibility that NVDA falls into a consolidation pattern as we wait for earnings at the end of August, which would allow the moving average to trend higher closing the gap.

 

 

The uptrend support line (red-dashed) should intersect the stock price at around $96-$93 depending on the continued rate of share price decline.  $96 is also this year’s break-out level, and it should now offer support.

Let’s not forget volume.  This identifies the seller’s conviction in this sell-off.  The 50-day MA of the daily volume totals is clearly in a decline since April.  In other words, the urgency of selling is waning.

Based on the fundamental outlook of continued strong earnings growth and the technical outlook, the stock should not get too far below the mid-$90s before the low is found.

 

On this chart, I have drawn support and trend lines, showing where the stock price may find lows.  I have also drawn the trend line showing declining volume since March 2024.

 

Weekly NVDA chart

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-31 12:00:562024-07-31 14:06:13July 31, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) July 31, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-31 09:17:572024-07-31 09:17:57Trade Alert - (NVDA) July 31, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 31, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 31, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO READ THE MAD HEDGE DAILY POSITION SHEET)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-31 09:04:452024-07-31 11:34:07July 31, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 30, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 30, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(RETAIL THERAPY, MEET RETAIL RX)

(HUM), (WMT), (WBA), (UNH), (CVS), (TDOC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-30 12:02:132024-07-30 12:09:54July 30, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Retail Therapy, Meet Retail RX

Biotech Letter

In my years of covering the markets, from the trading floors of Tokyo to the halls of power in Washington, I've seen my fair share of unexpected partnerships.

But the recent tie-up between Walmart (WMT) and Humana (HUM) has me sitting up and paying attention.

That’s right. Walmart, the king of rollbacks and home of the $1 hot dog, has found a new tenant for the vacant spaces that used to house its healthcare business: Humana's CenterWell health clinics.

Humana, as you know, is one of the biggest players in the Medicare Advantage game, and is setting up shop in 23 Walmart Supercenters across Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas.

And they're not just dipping their toes in the water – they're diving in headfirst, with plans to have these clinics up and running by the first half of 2025.

Now, I know what you're thinking. "John, why should I care about some dusty old retail giant like Walmart getting into bed with a health insurance company?"

Let me tell you why.

Humana's Q1 2024 earnings were nothing to sneeze at, with revenues growing 11% year-over-year to a whopping $29.6 billion.

And while the company did revise its full-year EPS guidance downward, it maintained its outlook for adjusted EPS and even revised its membership growth in MA plans upward.

This is a big deal, folks. Medicare Advantage plans have been the bread and butter of Humana's business model, underpinning the company's phenomenal share price gains from $25 per share in 2010 to over $550 in late 2022.

With the population aging faster than fine wine, the demand for senior-focused healthcare services will only grow.

But Humana isn't the only one benefiting from this partnership.

For Walmart, renting out these spaces to CenterWell allows them to recoup some of the infrastructure investments they made in building out their 51 Walmart Health clinics, which they recently shut down due to profitability challenges.

It's like finding a roommate to help pay the rent after your startup goes belly up.

But the healthcare industry is like a giant game of Jenga, with players constantly pulling out blocks and hoping the whole thing doesn't come crashing down.

Just look at Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), another retail giant that recently announced the closure of 150 of its in-store clinics due to profitability challenges. It's a stark reminder of how difficult it can be to make a buck in this business.

That's why Walmart's pivot to a partnership model with Humana is so intriguing.

By leasing out pre-equipped facilities to CenterWell, Walmart is essentially letting Humana handle the nitty-gritty of patient care while still maintaining a presence in the rapidly growing primary care industry.

It's like having your cake and eating it too, without having to worry about the pesky details of actually baking the cake.

As expected, Walmart and Humana aren't the only ones making moves in the healthcare space.

CVS Health (CVS) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) are also betting big on primary care, with CVS acquiring Oak Street Health for $10.6 billion and UnitedHealth's Optum division going on an acquisition spree to expand its network of physicians and healthcare providers.

Then, there’s the meteoric rise of telehealth during the pandemic. Companies like Teladoc Health (TDOC) saw their revenues skyrocket as patients turned to virtual care in droves.

While growth has slowed down since the height of the pandemic, telehealth is still a force to be reckoned with and could potentially disrupt traditional brick-and-mortar clinics.

So, what does all this mean for us?

Well, if you're an investor looking to get in on the action, you've got plenty of options. From established players like Humana and UnitedHealth to up-and-comers like Oak Street Health and Teladoc, there's no shortage of companies vying for a piece of the healthcare pie.

With an aging population, rising healthcare costs, and a growing focus on preventative care and chronic disease management, the demand for innovative healthcare solutions is only going to increase in the coming years.

And who knows, maybe one day we'll all be getting our annual check-ups at the local Walmart, with a side of low-priced toilet paper and a jumbo bag of Cheetos.

Stranger things have happened in the wild world of healthcare.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-30 12:00:142024-07-30 12:09:22Retail Therapy, Meet Retail RX
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (SLV) July 30, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-30 10:36:152024-07-30 10:43:08Trade Alert - (SLV) July 30, 2024 - STOP LOSS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (AMZN) July 30, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-30 09:58:162024-07-30 09:58:16Trade Alert - (AMZN) July 30, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 30, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 30, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD),
(AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-30 09:04:122024-07-30 11:19:02July 30, 2024
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