The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent geopolitical events and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved."
Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.
Terrorists have been re-categorized from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588 when threatened by the Spanish Armada.
The Scots have raised their threat level from "Pissed Off" to "Let's get the
Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.
The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert
level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.
Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to
"Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides."
The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to
"Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbor" and "Lose."
Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they
are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.
The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms, so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.
Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to
"She'll be alright, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the Barbie this weekend!" and "The Barbie is canceled." So far, no situation has ever warranted the use of the final escalation level.
-- John Cleese - British writer, actor, and tall person.
“Bonds are priced artificially because you’ve got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars’ worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money,” said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Hot-Air-Balloon-e1416857733759.jpg181300Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2024-10-04 09:00:082024-10-04 14:36:32October 4, 2024 - Quote of the Day
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.Read more
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If you blinked, you might have missed the meteoric rise of Fulgent Genetics (FLGT) during the pandemic.
What started as a small player in genetic testing suddenly became a heavyweight in COVID-19 diagnostics, raking in nearly a billion dollars in revenue.
But with the pandemic in the rearview mirror, investors are wondering if Fulgent is just another one-hit wonder—or if it has a real shot at a biotech encore.
Fulgent started life in 2011 as a tech-savvy genetic testing outfit. They'd take your DNA, run it through their whiz-bang machines, and spit out a report for your doctor.
Not a bad gig in a market that's set to grow at 22% annually for the next decade.
But then 2020 rolled around, and boy did the plot thicken. COVID-19 hit, and Fulgent went from 59,000 billable tests in 2019 to a mind-boggling 10 million in 2021.
Talk about being in the right place at the right time.
Their COVID performance sent Fulgent's revenue into the stratosphere, rocketing from $32.5 million in 2019 to $992.6 million in 2021.
But as we all know, what goes up must come down, and by 2023, revenue had fallen back to $289.2 million as the COVID testing frenzy fizzled out.
So, where did Fulgent go from here? That’s the billion-dollar question—literally.
With COVID-19 testing revenues all but evaporated (just $841,000 in Q2 2024, or 1% of total revenue), Fulgent is back to focusing on its core genetic testing business and mapping out new territory.
Fortunately, the company didn’t just sit on its COVID cash pile. Instead, it made several strategic acquisitions to shore up its position in the broader healthcare space.
In 2021, Fulgent bought Cytometry Specialists Inc. (CSI), a move that expanded its presence in molecular diagnostics and cancer testing.
Then, in 2022, Fulgent went on a shopping spree, picking up Inform Diagnostics—a major pathology lab—and Fulgent Pharma, which marked its entry into the therapeutic development game.
These moves signal a clear intent: Fulgent wants to transition from being a niche diagnostics firm to a full-fledged healthcare solutions provider.
And here’s where it gets more interesting. Fulgent Pharma brought along a pipeline of drug candidates, including FID-007, a novel treatment for head and neck cancer that uses advanced nano-drug delivery technology.
While this segment currently contributes zero to the top line, the upside potential is massive if any of these candidates clear FDA hurdles.
Next, let’s take a look at the numbers.
Pre-COVID, Fulgent was growing at a respectable 21% clip from 2016 to 2019, but profitability was as elusive as a straight answer from the Fed. The pandemic changed all that, flooding the company with more cash than a Vegas high roller.
Still, even as COVID revenues dried up, Fulgent's core business kept growing. Their non-COVID revenues have jumped from $32.5 million pre-pandemic to $262 million in 2023.
That's an 8-fold increase, folks. Not too shabby for a Plan B.
As of Q2 2024, Fulgent's sitting on an $838 million cash pile, with zero debt. That's a lot of dry powder for a company valued at around $700 million.
Now, valuing Fulgent is trickier than nailing jello to a wall. Its specialized industry and lack of sustained profitability in its core business make traditional metrics about as useful as a screen door on a submarine.
But if we include long-term marketable securities in our net current asset value (NCAV) calculation, we get a per-share value of $25.40.
With the stock trading at $22.70, that's a price-to-NCAV ratio of 0.89x. Historically, Fulgent has traded at much higher multiples. Smells like opportunity to me.
And remember, this valuation gives zero credit to Fulgent's operating business. If they can hit their target of 40% gross margins by year-end 2024, we could be looking at a serious re-rating of this stock.
Of course, no investment is without risk, and Fulgent's got its share.
The main worry is cash burn, especially as they venture into the cash-hungry world of drug development. For 2024, they're expecting to burn $15-17 million on therapeutics development. That's manageable for now, but it's something to keep an eye on.
There's also the risk of bad acquisitions. Fulgent's been on a buying spree, and while it's paid off so far, one bad deal could spoil the broth.
Lastly, there's the Ming Hsieh factor. The CEO owns 29% of the company, giving him more control than a puppet master. His vision sounds promising, but it's speculative and may not always align with shareholder interests.
So, what’s the bottom line here?
Fulgent Genetics is like a biotech chameleon, constantly adapting to its environment. It rode the COVID wave to financial success and is now trying to parlay that into a long-term winning strategy. I suggest you buy the dip.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-10-03 12:00:562024-10-03 12:20:06Testing, Testing... Can This Biotech Survive The Post-Pandemic Drop?
From time to time, I receive an email from a subscriber telling me that they are unable to get executions on trade alerts that are as good as the ones I get. There are several possible reasons for this:
1) Markets move, sometimes quite dramatically so.
2) Your Trade Alert email was hung up on your local provider’s server, getting it to you late. This is a function of your local provider’s capital investment and is totally outside our control.
3) The spreads on deep-in-the-money options spreads can be quite wide. This is why I recommend readers place limit orders to work in the middle market. Make the market come to you. Better yet, if I send you a limit order at $9.00, split it up into five pieces and enter them at $9.00, $9.10, $9.20, $9.30, and $9.40. You might get the last one or two done immediately. When the high frequency traders dump their positions at the end of the day you might get filled on everything. If you enter a “Good until Cancelled” order you might get even better prices the next morning if the stock goes your way. This is what I do.
4) Thousands of market makers read Global Trading Dispatch. The second they see one of my Trade Alerts, they adjust their markets accordingly. This is especially true for deep-in-the-money options. A spread can go from totally ignored to a hot item in seconds. I have seen daily volume soar from 10 contracts to 10,000 in the wake of my Trade Alerts.
On the one hand, this is good news, as my Trade Alerts have earned such credibility in the marketplace. It is a problem for readers encountering sharp elbows when attempting executions in competition with market makers.
5) Occasionally, emails just disappear into thin air. This is cutting edge technology, and sometimes it just plain doesn’t work. This is why I strongly recommend that readers sign up for my free Text Alert Service as a back up. Trade Alerts are also always posted on the website as a secondary back up and show up in the daily P&L as a third. So, we have triple redundancy here.
The bottom line on all of this is that the prices quoted in my Trade Alerts are just ballpark ones with the intention of giving traders some directional guidance. You have to exercise your own judgment as to whether the risk/reward is sufficient with the prices you are able to execute yourself. Sometimes it is better to pay up by a few cents rather than miss the big trend. The market rarely gives you second chances.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
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"Stocks are a lot safer than investors realize," said Tom Lee, chief US equity strategist of JP Morgan.
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For years, we've been told that robots will take over manual labor and repetitive tasks, leaving creative pursuits as the exclusive domain of humans. But the rise of sophisticated AI tools like DALL-E 2, Midjourney, and ChatGPT is challenging that assumption. No longer confined to logic and data processing, AI is now generating stunning visuals, writing compelling copy, and even composing music. This begs the question: are creative jobs safe?
The answer, increasingly, is no. While human creativity and ingenuity are still highly valued, certain artistic roles are becoming increasingly susceptible to automation. Here are five creative jobs that AI is poised to disrupt in the near future:
1. Entry-Level Graphic Design:
Imagine needing a logo for your new online store. Instead of hiring a designer, you type a few keywords into an AI image generator, choose from a selection of impressive options, and customize the final product with a few clicks. This is the reality facing many entry-level graphic designers. AI tools can already create visually appealing designs for websites, social media posts, brochures, and more, often at a fraction of the cost and time.
What AI can do:
Generate variations of a design concept: Need a logo in different color schemes or layouts? AI can effortlessly produce countless iterations.
Adapt to different styles: Want something minimalist, vintage, or futuristic? AI can adjust its output to match your desired aesthetic.
Create basic layouts: AI can arrange text and images in visually appealing ways for brochures, flyers, and web pages.
What AI can't (yet) do:
Understand complex design briefs: While AI can follow basic instructions, it struggles with nuanced requests or abstract concepts.
Offer original creative thinking: AI relies on existing data and trends, potentially leading to derivative or uninspired designs.
Build client relationships and understand their brand identity: Human designers excel at understanding a client's vision and translating it into a cohesive brand identity.
2. Junior Copywriters:
From product descriptions to social media captions, AI is making significant inroads into the world of copywriting. Tools like Jasper and Copy.ai can generate grammatically correct and persuasive copy in seconds, making them a tempting alternative for businesses on a budget.
What AI can do:
Write different types of creative content: AI can generate blog posts, articles, website copy, and even scripts for videos.
Adapt to different tones of voice: Whether you need something formal, playful, or informative, AI can adjust its writing style accordingly.
Optimize copy for SEO: AI can incorporate relevant keywords and phrases to improve search engine rankings.
What AI can't (yet) do:
Conduct in-depth research and interviews: Human copywriters excel at gathering information and crafting compelling narratives.
Understand complex topics and write with authority: AI often struggles with nuanced or specialized subjects.
Inject personality and unique voice: While AI can mimic different writing styles, it lacks the genuine voice and perspective of a human writer.
3. Stock Photographers and Illustrators:
With AI image generators capable of producing stunning, royalty-free images on demand, the stock photography and illustration industry is facing a major upheaval. Why pay for expensive stock photos when you can generate a custom image tailored to your exact needs?
What AI can do:
Create realistic and stylized images: AI can generate photographs, illustrations, and even 3D models in a variety of styles.
Customize images to specific requirements: Need a picture of a cat wearing a hat in a specific pose? AI can make it happen.
Generate variations of an image: AI can easily create different versions of an image with different lighting, angles, or compositions.
What AI can't (yet) do:
Capture real-life events and emotions: While AI can generate realistic images, it can't replicate the spontaneity and authenticity of a photograph taken in the real world.
Offer a unique artistic vision: AI-generated images often lack the personal touch and individual style of human artists.
Understand the nuances of visual storytelling: Human photographers and illustrators are skilled at conveying emotions and narratives through their work.
4. Music Composers for Background Music and Jingles:
Need a catchy jingle for your latest ad campaign or some background music for your YouTube video? AI-powered music generators can create custom tracks in a variety of genres, eliminating the need to hire a composer.
What AI can do:
Compose music in different styles: AI can generate music ranging from classical to electronic, jazz to pop.
Create custom tracks based on specific parameters: Need something upbeat, melancholic, or suspenseful? AI can tailor the music to your needs.
Generate variations of a melody or chord progression: AI can easily experiment with different musical ideas.
What AI can't (yet) do:
Compose complex and emotionally resonant music: Human composers excel at creating music that evokes deep emotions and tells a story.
Collaborate with other musicians and artists: AI lacks the ability to engage in creative collaboration and improvisation.
Understand the nuances of music theory and composition: While AI can generate technically sound music, it may lack the depth and originality of human-composed music.
5. Translators for Simple, Repetitive Texts:
AI-powered translation tools like Google Translate have come a long way, and they're becoming increasingly capable of handling simple, repetitive texts like product descriptions, instruction manuals, and website copy.
What AI can do:
Translate text quickly and efficiently: AI can translate large volumes of text in a fraction of the time it would take a human translator.
Handle multiple languages: AI translation tools can often translate between dozens of different languages.
Improve accuracy over time: As AI models are exposed to more data, their translations become more accurate and nuanced.
What AI can't (yet) do:
Translate literary or creative texts: Human translators are essential for capturing the nuances of language and style in literature, poetry, and other creative works.
Understand cultural context and adapt translations accordingly: AI may struggle with idioms, humor, and other culturally specific elements.
Provide quality assurance and editing: Human translators are still needed to ensure that translations are accurate, consistent, and culturally appropriate.
The Future of Creativity in the Age of AI
The rise of AI in creative fields is not necessarily a cause for panic, but it does signal a need for adaptation. While AI excels at automating repetitive tasks and generating basic creative outputs, it still lacks the human touch – the ability to truly understand and respond to complex emotions, cultural nuances, and abstract concepts.
To thrive in this new landscape, creatives will need to embrace AI as a tool, leveraging its capabilities to enhance their own work and focus on tasks that require uniquely human skills like critical thinking, empathy, and creative problem-solving. The future of creativity is not about man vs. machine, but rather a collaborative partnership where humans and AI work together to achieve new heights of artistic expression.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Screenshot-2024-10-02-163527.png792793Douglas Davenporthttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDouglas Davenport2024-10-02 16:36:402024-10-02 16:38:36The Robots Are Getting Creative: 5 Jobs AI is Poised to Take Over
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