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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 29, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(THE BASICS ON BONDS)

 

November 29, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

What are Bonds?

Bonds are instruments used by companies and governments when they need to raise money in the form of a loan.

If, for instance, a company issues a Bond and the investor buys the bond, the company gives a promise to repay the money at an agreed-upon interest rate.

Bonds are issued at the par value of $1000, which is the standard.

The Interest rate depends on several factors.

One of the most important is the Credit Rating.

The lower the credit rating, the higher the risk and the higher the interest paid.

The U.S. government has never defaulted on a bond, so they are considered a very low credit risk, and therefore, they have a low interest rate.

 

 

A Bond states three things:

Par value, also called face value, its coupon rate, which is stated as a percentage of par and its maturity date.

What is the coupon rate for bonds?

The coupon rate is just another term for the bond’s interest rate.

In other words, it’s the cash that the borrower will pay periodically to the bondholder. 

The face value is the lump sum that the borrower is promising to pay at the maturity date.

At the end of the term, you get the principal back.

You can also sell your bond to another person on the bond market.

How do you buy a bond?

Depending on the type, you can purchase bonds through brokers or exchange-traded funds or from the U.S. government at Treasury Direct.  You may need to have at least $1,000, the typical starting face value for most bonds.

Comparing bonds and stocks

Let’s draw a comparison between stocks and bonds.  When you buy a stock, you own some of the company.  When you buy a bond, you are making a loan to a company (or the government), but you do not own any of the company.

 

 

Types of Bonds

U.S. Treasury Bonds 

The most important bonds are the U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds issued by the Treasury Department.  They are used to set the rates for all other long-term fixed-rate bonds.  The Treasury sells them at auction to fund the operations of the federal government.

These bonds are also resold on the secondary market.  They are the safest since they are guaranteed by the United States government.  That means they also offer the lowest return.  They are owned by almost every institutional investor, corporation, and sovereign wealth fund.

Savings Bonds 

Savings bonds are also issued by the Treasury Department.  These bonds are meant to be purchased by individual investors.  They are issued in low enough amounts to make them affordable for individuals. 

Agency Bonds 

Quasi-governmental agencies, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, sell bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government.

Municipal Bonds 

Municipal bonds are issued by various cities.  They are tax-free but have slightly lower interest rates than corporate bonds.  They are slightly riskier than bonds issued by the federal government.  Cities occasionally do default.

 

Corporate Bonds 

Corporate bonds are issued by all different types of companies.  They are riskier than government-backed bonds, so they offer higher rates of return.  They are sold by the representative bank.

There are three types of corporate bonds:

Junk bonds or high-yield bonds are corporate bonds from companies that have a chance of defaulting.  They offer higher interest rates to compensate for the risk.

Preferred stocks are technically stocks, but they act like bonds.  They pay you a fixed dividend at regular intervals.  They are slightly safer than stocks in case of bankruptcy.

Holders get paid after bondholders but before common stockholders.

Certificates of deposit are like bonds issued by your bank.  You essentially loan the bank your money for a certain period for a guaranteed fixed rate of return.

 

 

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-29 12:00:142024-11-29 12:20:50November 29, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 29, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 29, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(The Mad DeCEMBER traders & Investors Summit is ON!)
(CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA),
(FXI), (BIDU), (BABA), (JD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-29 09:06:002024-11-29 11:38:23November 29, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

China's View of China

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

There was so much enthusiasm for China only a month ago.

A stimulus package was announced, a massive short-covering rally ensured, and finally, after a three-year hiatus, China was back in play. Several hedge funds announced major commitments to the Middle Kingdom.

Here we are only three weeks after the US presidential election, and China now looks so much rubble. Asst prices returned to their starting points. The hedge funds have so much mud on their faces. It’s back to a long wait.

Which gives us all plenty of time to think about what China is really all about.

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out-of-consensus views on China’s position in the world today.

He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $12,969, compared to $81,695 in the US.

We are simply moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China is not going to dominate the world, or even Asia, where there is a long history of regional rivalries and wars.

China can’t even control China, where recessions lead to revolutions, and 30% of the country, Tibet and the Uighurs want to secede.

China’s military is almost entirely devoted to controlling its own people, which makes US concerns about their recent military build-up laughable.

All of Asia’s progress, to date, has been built on selling to the US market. Take us out, and they’re nowhere.

With enormous resource, environmental, and demographic challenges constraining growth, Asia is not replacing the US anytime soon.

There is no miracle form of Asian capitalism; impoverished, younger populations are simply forced to save more because there is no social safety net.

Try filing a Chinese individual tax return, where a maximum rate of 40% kicks in at an income of $35,000 a year, with no deductions, and there is no social security or Medicare in return.

Ever heard of a Chinese unemployment office or jobs program?

Nor are benevolent dictatorships the answer, with the despots in Burma, Cambodia, North Korea, and Laos thoroughly trashing their countries.

The press often touts the 600,000 engineers that China graduates, joined by 350,000 in India. In fact, 90% of these are only educated to a trade school standard. Asia has just one world-class school, the University of Tokyo.

As much as we Americans despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world.

After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for four decades, and you feel this vibrating from everything around you.

I’ll consider what Minxin Pei said next time I contemplate going back into the (FXI) and (EEM).

 

 

 

 

China: Not All Its Cracked Up to Be

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/China-Parade.jpg 266 401 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-11-29 09:02:432024-11-29 11:36:58China's View of China
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 29, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

“If you are going to be bearish and against this market, you are betting against the three richest men on the earth, Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, and Kuroda,” said market strategist, Ed Yardeni.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/bear.jpg 488 650 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-11-29 09:00:282024-11-29 11:36:31November 29, 2024 - Quote of the Day
Douglas Davenport

5 AI Stocks to Watch This Holiday Season

Mad Hedge AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer a futuristic concept confined to science fiction. It's rapidly transforming industries, from healthcare and finance to transportation and entertainment. As we step deeper into the digital age, AI is poised to revolutionize the way we live and work. For investors, this presents a unique opportunity to capitalize on the growth of this groundbreaking technology.

While the AI landscape is vast and constantly evolving, here are five AI stocks worth keeping a close eye on in November 2024 and beyond:

NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Hardware Powerhouse

NVIDIA is a dominant force in the AI chip market, providing the high-performance GPUs that power AI applications like machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. Their GPUs are essential for training and running complex AI models, making them a critical component of the AI ecosystem.

Why NVDA is a top AI stock:

  • Market dominance: NVIDIA holds a commanding lead in the GPU market, particularly for AI applications.

  • Strong financial performance: The company consistently delivers impressive revenue and earnings growth, driven by the increasing demand for AI solutions.

  • Expanding applications: NVIDIA's GPUs are used in a wide range of AI applications, from autonomous vehicles and robotics to healthcare and data centers.

Key developments to watch:

  • New GPU releases: NVIDIA continues to innovate and release new generations of GPUs with improved performance and efficiency.

  • Expansion into new markets: The company is actively expanding its presence in emerging AI markets, such as edge computing and cloud gaming.

  • Partnerships and collaborations: NVIDIA collaborates with leading technology companies and research institutions to advance AI development and adoption.

Google (GOOGL/GOOG): The AI Software Giant

Google is a leader in AI software and services, with a vast ecosystem of AI-powered products and platforms. From Google Search and Google Assistant to Google Cloud AI and Waymo, the company is at the forefront of AI innovation.

Why Google is a top AI stock:

  • Extensive AI expertise: Google has a deep bench of AI talent and a long history of AI research and development.

  • Diverse AI portfolio: The company's AI offerings span a wide range of applications, from consumer products to enterprise solutions.

  • Massive data advantage: Google has access to vast amounts of data, which is crucial for training and improving AI models.

Key developments to watch:

  • Advancements in Google Cloud AI: Google Cloud is a major player in the cloud AI market, offering a suite of AI tools and services for businesses.

  • Progress in Waymo: Waymo, Google's self-driving car subsidiary, is a leader in autonomous vehicle technology.

  • New AI-powered products and services: Google continues to launch new AI-powered products and services, such as AI-powered search and personalized recommendations.

Microsoft (MSFT): The Cloud AI Contender

Microsoft is another major player in the AI space, with a strong focus on cloud AI and enterprise solutions. Azure, Microsoft's cloud computing platform, offers a comprehensive suite of AI tools and services for businesses.

Why Microsoft is a top AI stock:

  • Growing cloud AI business: Azure is a leading cloud platform for AI, with a growing customer base and a strong portfolio of AI services.

  • Strategic investments in AI: Microsoft has made significant investments in AI research and development, including the acquisition of OpenAI.

  • Integration of AI into its products: Microsoft is integrating AI into its core products, such as Office 365 and Windows, to enhance productivity and user experience.

Key developments to watch:

  • Expansion of Azure AI capabilities: Microsoft continues to expand its Azure AI offerings, with new tools and services for machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing.

  • Developments in OpenAI partnership: Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is driving innovation in generative AI and large language models.

  • AI-powered enhancements to existing products: Microsoft is leveraging AI to improve its existing products and services, such as Bing search and Microsoft Teams.

C3.ai (AI): The Enterprise AI Platform

C3.ai is a leading provider of enterprise AI software, offering a platform for developing and deploying AI applications across various industries. Their platform enables businesses to build custom AI solutions for predictive maintenance, fraud detection, supply chain optimization, and more.

Why C3.ai is a top AI stock:

  • Focus on enterprise AI: C3.ai is specifically targeting the enterprise market, with a platform designed for large-scale AI deployments.

  • Strong customer base: The company has a growing list of enterprise customers, including Fortune 500 companies and government agencies.

  • Partnerships with industry leaders: C3.ai has strategic partnerships with companies like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, expanding its reach and capabilities.

Key developments to watch:

  • New AI application development: C3.ai continues to develop new AI applications for specific industries and use cases.

  • Expansion of its platform capabilities: The company is investing in enhancing its platform with new features and functionalities.

  • Growth in customer adoption: C3.ai's success depends on its ability to attract new customers and expand its market share.

SoundHound AI (SOUN): The Voice AI Specialist

SoundHound AI is a pioneer in voice AI technology, developing conversational AI platforms for various applications. Their technology powers voice assistants, voice search, and voice commerce solutions.

Why SoundHound AI is a top AI stock:

  • Focus on conversational AI: SoundHound AI specializes in voice-based AI interactions, a growing area of the AI market.

  • Strong technology foundation: The company has a robust technology platform and a portfolio of patents in voice AI.

  • Growing customer base: SoundHound AI is gaining traction with customers in industries like automotive, hospitality, and retail.

Key developments to watch:

  • New product launches: SoundHound AI is constantly innovating and releasing new products and features for its voice AI platform.

  • Expansion into new markets: The company is exploring new applications for its voice AI technology, such as in healthcare and education.

  • Strategic partnerships: SoundHound AI is forming partnerships with companies in various industries to integrate its voice AI solutions.

Investing in the Future of AI

Investing in AI stocks offers the potential for significant returns as this transformative technology continues to reshape industries and create new markets. However, it's important to remember that the AI landscape is dynamic and competitive. Investors should carefully research and analyze individual companies, considering their financial performance, technological capabilities, and market position before making investment decisions.

The five stocks mentioned above represent a diverse range of companies at the forefront of AI innovation. By keeping an eye on these companies and the broader AI landscape, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the exciting opportunities presented by the AI revolution.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2024-11-27 15:23:322024-11-27 15:23:325 AI Stocks to Watch This Holiday Season
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 27, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BEST BUY THROWS UP SOME WARNING SIGNALS)
(BBY), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 14:04:002024-11-27 16:09:34November 27, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Best Buy Throws Up Some Warning Signals

Tech Letter

Best Buy (BBY) tanking their earning results is indicative of where we are right now, not only as a society but also in the tech sector.

People just don’t have that extra dollar or 2 to fund that iPhone (AAPL) upgrade, and that is why Best Buy sales are so underwhelming.

It isn’t the end of the world, but we need the consumers to stay healthy for the short-term health of the tech sector.

Sure, it is true that a great deal of spend comes from enterprise sources, but that is not the entire economy.

The U.S. economy is held up by consumers, and that isn’t the case in many other economies like China or India.

Get ready for a lukewarm Christmas season, which should manifest itself in some pretty sweet deals for the individual.

At the aggregate level, it looks quite sluggish in the mid-term as electronic retailer Best Buy ponders about how to reverse the dimming outlook.

Best Buy cut its full-year sales forecast and missed revenue targets.

Best Buy expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared with its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop.

Granted, the holiday season is five days shorter than last, so some of the softness is a one-off.

Management did say shoppers are responding to big deals and sales events. Management said it expects the peak in sales during times like Black Friday and Cyber Monday to be higher but the valleys before and after those to be lower.

Best Buy is waiting for a wave of shoppers to replace old devices and upgrade to new, higher-tech ones after an approximately two-year sales slump in the consumer electronics category.

Management said they anticipate this year to be one that brings “increasing industry stabilization.” They also mentioned specifically about Apple’s fresh collection of iPads, as well as artificial intelligence-enabled laptops from Microsoft, will drive sales.

Tariffs could put Best Buy’s sales at risk, too, if they result in higher costs for the company and for customers. President-elect Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs by an additional 10% on all Chinese goods and impose tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Artificial intelligence products are nowhere near the shelves of Best Buy, and nobody knows when they will debut.

A.I. continues to be strictly an enterprise build-out with a future use case, which doesn’t help companies like Best Buy and their bottom line.

Apple and its micro-improvements don’t move the needle enough for shoppers to get off the sidelines and splurge.

This type of transitory environment for consumer tech isn’t what investors like to hear.

I also mentioned earlier about the inflation effect of households redirecting funds to essentials like housing, insurance, and food.

Therefore, it is better for investors to stay out of the tech consumables and target the enterprise side of the equation.

I don’t believe the enterprise part of tech needs a reboot of growth is waning, and I am still executing bullish trades in stocks that are exposed to the A.I. story.

However, the times of the “tide lifts all boats” all long gone in the rearview mirror.

Today, I executed another bullish trade in Dell (DELL) on a monster dip of 12%. Weak guidance is another manifestation of stalling tech growth. I will exit this position before the year is over.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 14:02:012024-11-27 16:09:16Best Buy Throws Up Some Warning Signals
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (DELL) November 27, 2024 - BUY

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 13:15:182024-11-27 13:15:18Trade Alert - (DELL) November 27, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 27, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(AUSTRALIA CHALLENGES BIG TECH BY IMPOSING SOCIAL MEDIA BANS FOR UNDER 16’s)

November 27, 2024

 

Hello everyone

 

AUSTRALIA COULD BE IN THE DOGHOUSE UNDER TRUMP’S WATCH

It seems that Donald Trump’s team finds Albanese’s move to introduce social media bans for those under 16’s a little bit “on the nose,” to say the least.  So much so that Australia could find itself hit with hefty US tariffs. 

Elon, who is not a stranger to sharing his views bluntly, has already slammed the move within hours of the bill being tabled.  “Seems like a backdoor way to control access to the internet by all Australians.”

If the bill is passed, social media companies could be hit with fines of up to $50 million if they fail to do enough to verify a user’s age on their platforms.

The changes will impact social platforms like TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, and X, but YouTube will be exempt.

Snapchat is also expected to come under the same Australian law.

A ban on social media won’t be a cure all.  Stopping someone looking at social media will not address mental health issues by itself.  It’s more complex than that.

Of course, the ban won’t stop teenagers under 16 from using social media.  They will find a way to get around it.

Here’s a way to look at the ban.

There are age restrictions on alcohol.  Having those restrictions in place at a certain age sets a standard. 

The laws would come into force 12 months after passing, and the eSafety commissioner would be responsible for enforcing the legislation.

How they are going to enforce the legislation is not yet clear.

Ultimately, more education programs about social media need to be put in place – in schools, universities, and in workplaces – to highlight the pros and cons and understand its place and function in the world at large.

Such programs would enable parents and children to develop knowledge and awareness of how to navigate these spaces safely.

We all know that the character of people who use this channel of communication can be either destructive or helpful.

Unfortunately, those who want to inflict harm find social media facilitates their malicious intent. They hide behind their anonymity.    Fake posts scammers parading around under the guise of “looking for romance” when they are really looking for the contents of your wallet.  And let’s not forget your actual friend’s Facebook page being hacked by some loser who has nothing better to do.  Or scammers who use Facebook to sell something or offer their trade services and then disappear after they receive the funds.

No doubt, with the advancement of AI, social media could morph into a smarter communication form, which may be able to better police and eradicate the “wolves in sheep’s clothing,” or at least “red flag” the post.

My 19-year-old son only uses Instagram occasionally; he doesn’t use any other social media platforms.  Discord is his platform of choice to communicate with friends.

Social media platforms should be held accountable for making sure their platform is a safe space to use.

Equally important is educating users about how to safely traverse these platforms so mental health issues do not dominate their lives.

 

 

 

QI CORNER

 

 

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

HOUSEKEEPING

Apologies for the late arrival of the October Zoom meeting recording.  It is still being edited.  The November Zoom monthly meeting will be held early next week.  Zoom links will be sent out in the next couple of days.

 

 

And

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 12:14:572024-11-27 12:14:57November 27, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

November 27, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 27, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE REAL ESTATE CRASH COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),
(THE FALLING MARKET FOR KIDS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-27 09:06:302024-11-27 11:40:58November 27, 2024
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