Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in St. Augustine, Florida on Wednesday, January 22, 2025. The cost of the luncheon will be $257.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a historic St. Augustine hotel. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/florida-post-card.png424600april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-14 13:00:032025-02-21 11:48:40SOLD OUT - Wednesday, January 22, 2025 St. Augustine, Florida Global Strategy Luncheon
Who knew the devil could lurk in an Excel spreadsheet? More specifically, in a hidden tab that, until recently, was minding its own business like a shy teenager at a school dance.
That is, until some eagle-eyed analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald decided to right-click their way into a $12 billion nightmare for Amgen.
(If you're wondering how to find these hidden tabs yourself, just right-click on any visible tab in Excel. Though after this debacle, pharmaceutical companies might start password-protecting their spreadsheets like they're nuclear launch codes.)
The data in question concerns MariTide, Amgen's hopeful contestant in the "help-America-lose-weight" sweepstakes.
The hidden tabs revealed what the published paper in Nature Metabolism conspicuously didn't mention: bone density scans that would make an osteoporologist reach for their stress ball.
Patients receiving the 420-milligram dose saw their bone density drop by about 4% over 12 weeks - the kind of number that sends stock traders reaching for their sell buttons faster than you can say "osteoporosis."
Speaking of selling, this discovery sent Amgen's stock tumbling 7%, which in the biotech world is like watching $12 billion vanish faster than free cookies at a Weight Watchers meeting.
Amgen, doing what pharmaceutical companies do best when faced with uncomfortable data, assured everyone that their Phase 1 study doesn't suggest any bone safety concerns. (One imagines their PR team working overtime, possibly sustained by the same stress-eating habits their drug aims to curb.)
Now, let's talk about the increasingly crowded room of companies trying to help elephants become gazelles.
Novo Nordisk (NVO), the current crown prince of weight-loss drugs, is sitting pretty with Wegovy raking in 17.3 billion Danish kroner (about $2.5 billion) in just one quarter.
They're so confident they're throwing $11 billion at Catalent faster than you can say "production scale-up." That's enough kroner to buy every Danish pastry in Copenhagen, though that might defeat the purpose.
Not to be outdone, Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound is showing off with weight loss results that would make Jenny Craig jealous - we're talking 21% body weight reduction.
Together with Novo Nordisk, they're expected to dominate 80% of the market, leaving other companies to fight over the crumbs like desperate dieters at a birthday party.
Still, the supporting cast is equally fascinating.
Pfizer's (PFE) danuglipron and Structure Therapeutics' (GPCR) GSBR-1290 are trying to turn these injectable drugs into pills, because apparently not everyone enjoys playing pin cushion.
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is getting creative with VK2735, a dual GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonist, which is pharmaceutical speak for "two mechanisms of action are better than one."
Meanwhile, AstraZeneca's (AZN) AZD5004 is trying to join the party, though their early Phase I results are about as impressive as a rice cake at a dessert buffet.
Now, let’s take a look at the numbers. The global anti-obesity drugs market is expected to balloon from $6.15 billion in 2024 to an eye-watering $37.94 billion by 2032.
But, that seems to be just the conservative estimate. Some analysts are betting this market could hit $150 billion by the early 2030s.
So, what’s the smart move here?
For those watching this space (while probably patting their own midsections thoughtfully), the message is clear: This market is hotter than a freshman chemistry experiment gone wrong.
But as Amgen's Excel adventure shows, sometimes the devil really is in the details - or in this case, in Tab 9, hidden away like a chocolate bar in a dieter's sock drawer.
And like my old friend Deng Xiaoping used to say, sometimes you have to cross the river by feeling the stones.
Today, those stones are telling me this: hold off on buying Amgen - that bone density data isn't just a minor setback, it's a potential deal-breaker.
If you really want to take part in the action, opt for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly for their proven ability to execute and dominate.
And for those of you who, like me, enjoy a bit of calculated risk-taking, consider a speculative position in Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics.
Before you get too excited, though, I'd suggest limiting these speculative plays to no more than 5% of your portfolio each - promising early-stage biotechs can deliver spectacular returns, but they can also crash faster than a poorly maintained MIG-25.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-14 12:00:442024-11-14 12:15:13Bone Of Contention
Come join me in the grand appointments of the Princess Coral on an adventurous 16-day cruise from Los Angeles, California to Fort Lauderdale, Florida through the Panama Canal.
The ship departs from the Port of San Pedro, Los Angeles at 12:00 PM on Thursday, December 19, 2024 and reaches Fort Lauderdale at 7:00 AM, on Saturday, January 4.
The ship will make day stops at Huatulco, Mexico, Puerto Chiapas, Mexico, Puntarenas, Costa Rica, Fuerte Amador, Panama, and Cartegena, Columbia. There will be seven full days at sea in the Pacific Ocean and The Caribbean.
There, I will be conducting the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Strategy Luncheon where I will discuss the future of the global financial markets.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. I’ll highlight the best long and short opportunities.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $499 for the seminar only.
Attendees will be responsible for booking their own cabin through Princess. I just checked availability and the cheapest offer is for an inside stateroom from $2,393 per person. If you do the math, that is cheaper than staying at Motel 6 for 16 days and eating at Taco Bell every day, which is why the cruise industry is booming. Or, you can step up to $4,202 per person for a luxury mini-suite with an outside deck.
Just visit their website at https://www.princess.com/en-us or call them directly at 800-774-6237 to make your own arrangements. Only reserve cruise number 6501 for 2024.
The weather this time of year should be balmy and tropical, depending on our luck. A brisk walk four times around the boat deck adds up to a mile. Full Internet access will be available, for a price, to follow the markets. Princess is now using the SpaceX Starlink satellite access on all their ships.
Two dinners during the voyage will be black tie, so bring two tuxes or formal dresses.
The event will be held at the ship’s luxurious Owners Suite, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
See you aboard!
Come Join Me at Sea
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/princess-pearl.jpg298558Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2024-11-14 09:02:482024-11-14 15:29:26Join Me on my January 3, 2025 Panama Canal Seminar at Sea Luncheon
In the world of technology investing, few names have garnered as much attention in recent years as Nvidia (NVDA). The company, once primarily known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that powered high-end gaming experiences, has become a driving force behind the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. And according to Beth Kindig, a prominent technology analyst at the I/O Fund, this is just the beginning. Kindig boldly predicts that Nvidia is on track to achieve a staggering $10 trillion valuation by 2030, fueled by its dominance in the burgeoning AI landscape.
This projection may seem audacious at first glance. After all, Nvidia's current market cap hovers around the $1 trillion mark. However, Kindig's analysis, based on a deep understanding of technological trends and Nvidia's strategic positioning, paints a compelling picture of a company poised for exponential growth.
The AI Gold Rush and Nvidia's Hardware
The core of Kindig's thesis lies in the transformative power of AI and Nvidia's crucial role in its development. AI is no longer a futuristic concept confined to science fiction; it's rapidly permeating every facet of our lives, from personalized recommendations on streaming platforms to groundbreaking advancements in healthcare and autonomous vehicles.
At the heart of this AI revolution lies the need for immense computational power, and this is where Nvidia shines. The company's GPUs, originally designed for rendering complex graphics in video games, have proven to be ideally suited for the parallel processing demands of AI workloads. Training sophisticated AI models requires processing vast amounts of data, and Nvidia's hardware provides the necessary muscle to handle these tasks efficiently.
"Nvidia has established itself as the leading provider of AI infrastructure," says Kindig. "Their GPUs are the gold standard for training and running large language models and other complex AI applications. As AI adoption accelerates across industries, the demand for Nvidia's hardware will only intensify."
Beyond GPUs: Expanding the AI Ecosystem
While GPUs remain Nvidia's flagship product, the company is not resting on its laurels. Kindig highlights Nvidia's strategic expansion into a comprehensive AI ecosystem as a key driver of its future growth. This includes:
Software platforms: Nvidia's CUDA software platform provides developers with the tools to optimize AI applications for its GPUs, further solidifying its position in the market.
Networking solutions: With the acquisition of Mellanox, Nvidia has bolstered its networking capabilities, offering high-performance interconnects crucial for AI data centers.
Full-stack solutions: Nvidia is increasingly offering complete hardware and software solutions tailored for specific AI applications, simplifying deployment and accelerating development.
This expansion beyond hardware allows Nvidia to capture more value across the AI value chain. By providing a complete ecosystem, the company becomes an indispensable partner for businesses looking to leverage AI, strengthening its long-term growth prospects.
The Rise of Generative AI and Accelerated Computing
Kindig emphasizes the rise of generative AI as a particularly significant growth driver for Nvidia. Generative AI, which focuses on creating new content like text, images, and code, has captured the imagination of the public and is poised to revolutionize numerous industries.
"Generative AI models are incredibly computationally intensive," Kindig explains. "They require vast amounts of data and processing power, which plays directly into Nvidia's strengths. As generative AI becomes more sophisticated and widely adopted, the demand for Nvidia's high-performance computing solutions will skyrocket."
Furthermore, the broader trend of accelerated computing, where specialized hardware like GPUs are used to speed up a wide range of computational tasks, is further fueling Nvidia's growth. This trend extends beyond AI, encompassing fields like scientific research, data analytics, and even traditional enterprise applications.
Addressing the Challenges and Risks
While Kindig is bullish on Nvidia's future, she acknowledges the challenges and risks the company faces on its path to a $10 trillion valuation.
Competition: The semiconductor industry is fiercely competitive, and rivals like AMD and Intel are vying for a share of the AI chip market.
Supply chain constraints: Global supply chain disruptions have impacted the availability of semiconductors, potentially hindering Nvidia's ability to meet the growing demand.
Geopolitical risks: Trade tensions and export restrictions, particularly those related to advanced technology, could impact Nvidia's operations.
Despite these challenges, Kindig believes that Nvidia's technological leadership, strong ecosystem, and strategic vision position it to navigate these headwinds successfully.
The Path to $10 Trillion: A Long-Term Vision
Kindig's $10 trillion valuation target for Nvidia is a long-term projection, contingent on the continued growth of the AI market and the company's ability to maintain its leadership position. However, her analysis suggests that the underlying trends driving this growth are robust and sustainable.
"We are still in the early innings of the AI revolution," Kindig asserts. "The potential applications of AI are vast, and as the technology matures and becomes more accessible, its impact on the global economy will be profound. Nvidia, with its foundational role in AI infrastructure, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this transformative trend."
Conclusion
Beth Kindig's bold prediction for Nvidia reflects the immense potential of AI and the company's strategic positioning within this rapidly evolving landscape. While the $10 trillion valuation target may seem ambitious, the underlying trends driving AI adoption and the demand for high-performance computing suggest that Nvidia's future is indeed bright. As the AI revolution unfolds, Nvidia's journey will be one to watch closely.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Douglas Davenporthttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDouglas Davenport2024-11-13 16:38:202024-11-13 16:38:20Nvidia at $10 trillion: AI-powered fantasy or future reality?
One of the reasons I believe this AI narrative will continue in the short-term is because cash cow tech firms like Meta (META) are pouring cash into AI infrastructure.
There is a lot we still don’t know about the direction of AI – the future is uncertain.
However, the one takeaway is that the AI infrastructure spend continues right now unabated, and we know that because Meta raised capital expenditures guidance for the 2024 fiscal year to between $38 billion and $40 billion, up from $37 billion to $40 billion previously.
They also expect capital expenditures to continue to grow significantly in 2025 due to an acceleration in infrastructure expenses.
Founder Mark Zuckerberg is desperate to not miss out on the “next big thing.” Remember, he whiffed big time at the smartphone, and he will never stop blaming himself for it. Apple has been a constant pain in the ass for his company because Meta still needs to go through Apple management and their app store to get their platform to users. They also changed the privacy settings, which were directly targeted at Meta.
Zuckerberg is also on record for saying that Meta would be twice as profitable if he could remove the costs of going through Apple.
Meta is still growing at 19% year over year, and that is quite impressive for a company this big.
The company reported 3.29 billion daily active people for the third quarter. That was up 5% year over year, and we can expect that percentage point to stick in the single digits.
Zuckerberg has been pointing to the company’s massive investments in artificial intelligence, which includes spending billions of dollars on Nvidia’s popular graphics processing units, as helping improve the company’s core online ad business in the aftermath of Apple’s 2021 iOS privacy update. The company has been improving upon and building more data centers to help provide the technology infrastructure needed for its AI strategy.
The company’s Reality Labs hardware unit posted an operating loss of $4.4 billion in the third quarter, which was less than analysts’ expectations of $4.68 billion.
Facebook Reality Labs is a research and business unit of Meta Platform that develops virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) products and technologies.
I do believe the jury is still out on the Facebook Google story. It is not a given that consumers will just adopt some ridiculously looking VR headset and venture off into daily life with that thing on. The over $4 billion of losses points to a challenging time to turn the VR business into something legitimate.
Apple has also had some issues with its VR headset as well.
In the short term, Meta is still highly profitable, and they roll these profits into trying out new businesses.
It only takes one new killer business for the stock to explode again, much like what happened when Zuckerberg doubled down in social media through the acquisition of Instagram.
Investors need to be patient and keep a hold of META stock as it grinds higher.
In the event the stock does experience a mild sell-off, I am certain dip buyers will come to the rescue because of the nature of the stock being high quality.
Although digital ads aren’t the growth engine it once was, they are giving time and money for META to find the next path forward. 99% of tech companies don’t have that luxury.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-13 14:02:402024-11-14 09:02:40Hang On To The A.I Story With Meta
“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds aren’t in your favor.” – Said Tesla Founder Elon Musk
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Elon.png306226april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-13 14:00:082024-11-13 16:20:13November 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day
Bitcoin has been rallying strongly since Trump secured the Presidency.
Bitcoin recently broke out of the flag pattern that has been forming for the past year and has rocketed to the upside.
I have been recommending a small portfolio allocation into Bitcoin and related crypto stocks for over a year now.
With Bitcoin consistently reaching new records since Election Day – a trend that is likely to continue through next year – crypto miners could start to play catch-up.
The buying opportunity is here for Bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin miners are among the best investment vehicles for investors to express their bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
CleanSpark is up nearly 50% year to date.
Among the diversified miners, TeraWulf has soared 246% in the same period, and Core Scientific (CORZ) has rallied 407%.(I recommended (CORZ) on August 7 this year at the price of $9.71).It is now just over $17.00.
Core Scientific Weekly Chart (CORZ)
The promises made by Trump in his campaign included keeping all bitcoin mined in the U.S.
The previous administration thwarted the crypto industry as it attempted to mandate energy surveys on miners and proposed a 30% excise tax on them.
Private Prison Operators See a Big Move
We can understand Tesla and Bitcoin moving up strongly.Tesla can almost be seen as a sector on its own.But let’s dive into Prison Operators and see what their move is all about.
Shares in the leading publicly traded prison firms GEO Group and CoreCivic have jumped roughly 70% since November 4.
The gains point to the big opportunity investors see for private prison operators as Trump vows to round up and deport millions of migrants.
Trump’s first actions as president have been focused on assembling the team in charge of immigration policy, a signal it is likely to be a priority.
While Trump’s immigration policy may be sound for private prisons, it may not be good for the economy.The housing, agriculture, and hospitality industries rely on migrants to fill laboring jobs.Without that labour pool, the U.S. could see labour shortages, and higher wages, an environment that would not be conducive to helping remedy the housing shortage.
AUSTRALIAN CORNER
The Australian Government has become a big spender on quantum computing, outcompeting private capital in hopes to make Australia a world leader.
In the past 18 months, there has been a $470 million investment into PsiQuantum, matched by Queensland, a company that promises to deliver the world’s first “utility-scale” quantum computer from its Brisbane headquarters.
Global consultancy McKinsey has estimated the sector could be worth trillions within the next decade, with particular applications for problem-solving in the sciences and powering navigation and communication tools.
The first “State of Australian Quantum” report says Australia’s own quantum industry will be worth a projected $6 billion and employ 19,400 Australians by 2045.
Earlier this year, QuintessenceLabs, announced a US partnership to provide “quantum-safe cybersecurity” to government agencies.
As of August this year, there were at least 53 facilities and laboratories researching quantum technology in Australia and 38 quantum businesses headquartered in Australia.
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