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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 4, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(AN UPDATE ON CORE SCIENTIFIC (CORZ)

December 4, 2024

 

Hello everyone

December 4, 2024, stock price:  $16.42

August 7, 2024, purchase price: $9.71

Percentage gain from 08/07/24 to 11/29/24 = 84.14%

 

Core Scientific (CORZ) daily chart

 

Core Scientific is a sort of rags to riches story.  This year it went from bankruptcy to an investor’s favourite by betting on two big technology trends:  AI data centres and bitcoin mining.  Shares are up around 400% this year.

Core Scientific has been earning steady profits by hosting servers owned by companies that sell cloud services to AI providers.

Data centres are in high demand because tech companies need them to power their AI applications.

Core Scientific operates nine grid-connected warehouses in six states with access to so much electricity they could serve several hundred thousand homes.

The company started the year focused entirely on crypto mining, but it quickly pivoted as it saw demand surge for electricity for AI data centres.

In June, the company signed a deal with a company called Coreweave to lease data centre space for AI cloud services.  Coreweave has since agreed to lease 500 megawatts worth of space.  Core Scientific says it will get paid $8.7 billion over 12 years under the deal.

Privately held Coreweave is one of the fastest-growing companies behind the AI revolution.  It was once a cryptocurrency miner, but has since transitioned to offering cloud services, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence.  It’s closely connected to Nvidia, which has invested money in Coreweave and given the company access to its top-end chips.  Coreweave expects to be one of the first customers for Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs.

Analysts see EPS in the company jumping tenfold by 2027.  Shares trade at about 13 times those 2027 estimates.

The data center opportunity should only grow from here, as tech companies build more powerful AI systems.  Of the 1,200 megawatts worth of gross power capacity Core Scientific has contracted, about 800 megawatts are going to data center computing deals and 400 megawatts toward Bitcoin mining.   

 

QI CORNER

 

 

Recording of October Zoom monthly Meeting (apologies for the late arrival of this recording)

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/jacquie-munro-meeting-replay-october-2024/

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-04 12:00:352024-12-04 12:08:41December 4, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 4, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 4, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-04 09:04:102024-12-04 10:39:33December 4, 2024
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

America's Demographic Time Bomb

Diary, Newsletter

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long-term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps.

The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100-year-olds.

Notice that China and India dominate the children’s map. Kids turn into consumers in 20 years, stay healthy for a long time, and power economic growth.

The US, Japan, and Europe shrink to a fraction of their actual size on the children’s map, so economic growth is in a long-term secular downtrend there.

There is more bad news for the developed world on the centenarian’s map, which shows these countries ballooning in size to grotesque, unnatural proportions.

This means higher social security and medical costs, plunging productivity, and falling GDP growth.

The bottom line is that you want to own equities and local currencies of emerging market countries and avoid developed countries like the plague.

This is why we saw tenfold returns from SOME emerging markets (EEM) over the past ten and why there is an irresistible force pushing their currencies upward (CYB) over the long term.

Use any major meltdowns this year to increase your exposure to emerging markets, as I will.

 

 

 

 

Would You Rather Own Them?

 

Or Them?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Children.jpg 297 369 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2024-12-04 09:02:342024-12-04 10:39:18America's Demographic Time Bomb
DougD

December 4, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"The next leg of the bull market is going to have to be a fundamental leg, not a liquidity leg, and investors are in a little bit of a malaise trying to figure that out," said Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital.

 

Rockettes

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Rockettes.jpg 209 313 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2024-12-04 09:00:012024-12-04 10:39:05December 4, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 3, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 3, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(EYE SPY THE NEXT BIG THING)

(LCTX), (RHHBY), (ALPMY), (ADVM), (EDIT), (RGNX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 12:02:052024-12-03 12:37:33December 3, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Eye Spy The Next Big Thing

Biotech Letter

Who knew that the path to restored vision would involve recycling?

Not the kind where you sort plastics from paper, but the fascinating world of cellular hand-me-downs, where scientists are taking stem cells - nature's ultimate blank slate - and transforming them into made-to-order eye parts.

While most medical breakthroughs involve pills, patches, or the occasional well-placed zap of electricity, doctors have managed something far more incredible: they've successfully restored vision in multiple patients by essentially giving their eyes a cellular renovation via stem cell transplants.

But before you picture entire eyeballs being swapped out like lightbulbs, let me explain: We're talking about precision repair work at the cellular level, particularly targeting the notorious troublemakers of the vision world - macular degeneration and corneal damage.

The numbers behind this story are enough to make your eyes pop (sorry, couldn't resist).

Nearly 20 million Americans over 40 are currently living with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). That's more people than the entire population of New York City, all dealing with various stages of vision loss.

Break it down further, and you've got 18.34 million people with early-stage AMD and 1.49 million with the late-stage version, according to those number-crunchers at JAMA Network.

And once you hit 75, your chances of having AMD jump to nearly 30% - not exactly the golden years surprise package anyone's hoping for.

Here's where things get interesting - and by interesting, I mean expensive.

The National Eye Institute estimates that vision loss costs the U.S. about $139 billion annually. That's not just medical bills. It's everything from lost productivity to the cost of assistance devices and support services.

To put this in context, $139 billion could buy every resident of California a lifetime supply of carrots - though that wouldn't help their eyesight nearly as much as stem cell therapy.

Speaking of which, the stem cell therapy market, currently valued at a modest $456 million (pocket change in pharmaceutical terms), is expected to bulk up considerably, growing at a clip of 25.23% annually from 2025 to 2030.

By 2032, we're looking at a market worth $56.15 billion. That's what financial types call a growth opportunity, and what I call a lot of zeros.

Now, let’s take a look at the companies betting big on this cellular vision quest.

Lineage Cell Therapeutics (LCTX) is developing something called OpRegen, which sounds ominous but is actually a therapy using retinal pigment epithelium cells.

They must be onto something because Roche’s (RHHBY) Genentech liked it enough to throw $670 million at them in a collaboration deal.

Then there's Astellas Pharma (ALPMY), working on their own vision-restoration treatment, and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), which is taking a slightly different approach with gene therapy.

Editas Medicine (EDIT) is getting even fancier, using CRISPR technology - think molecular scissors for DNA - to snip out the bad bits causing blindness.

Regenxbio (RGNX) rounds out our vision-quest dream team with their work on something called RGX-314, which uses viral vectors to deliver therapy (think of it as FedEx for genes).

The whole field of regenerative medicine, currently a $13.3 billion industry, is expected to grow exponentially, with projections showing a 23.3% annual growth rate by 2030.

That's significant considering the vision restoration market alone is worth $30 billion globally, with plenty of room to expand. Of course, that’s assuming these treatments make it through the regulatory obstacle course.

For one, there's the FDA to convince, manufacturing challenges to solve (turns out, growing eye cells at scale is tricky), and the ever-present question of who's going to pay for it all.

But given the alternative - a future where millions more lose their vision to degenerative diseases - the motivation to solve these challenges is crystal clear.

For those watching this space, I advise adding these names to your watchlist. After all, the future of vision care isn't just about getting better glasses or contact lenses anymore - it's now about regrowing the parts of the eye that wear out.

And that's a vision worth keeping an eye on (last eye pun, I promise).

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 12:00:192024-12-03 12:37:05Eye Spy The Next Big Thing
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

December 3, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 3, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE MAD HEDGE DECEMBER TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON!)
(IT’S GROUNDHOG DAY)
(LAUNCHING "TRADING OPTIONS FOR BEGINNERS”
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (VIX), (VXX), (GLD), (SLV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:08:232024-12-03 11:37:22December 3, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Mad Hedge December Traders & Investors Summit is On!

Diary, Newsletter

The election is over and a brave new world lies before us.

But the Fed may soon stop raising interest rates, inflation is rising, and tech stocks are flat-lining! Can a stock market crash be far behind? 

What should you do about it?

Attend the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit from December 3 - 5. Learn from 24 of the best professionals in the market with decades of experience and the track records to prove it. They are offering a smorgasbord of successful trading strategies.

Every strategy and asset class will be covered, including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals, commodities, energy, and real estate.

Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.

Best of all, by signing up you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes. 

Usually, access to an exclusive conference like this costs thousands of dollars. You can attend for free!

Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Mr-John-Thomas.png 554 374 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:06:122024-12-03 11:36:52The Mad Hedge December Traders & Investors Summit is On!
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

It's Groundhog Day

Diary, Newsletter
David Tepper

It is always the sign of a great hedge fund manager when he makes money while he is wrong.

I have seen this throughout my life, trading with clients and friends like George Soros, Julian Robertson, Paul Tudor Jones, and David Tepper.

And wrong I certainly was in 2024.

I thought Trump would lose the election.

Then, I thought that markets would rocket no matter who won. Only the sector leadership would change.

How about one out of two?

The big question is: “Is a stock market crash now in front of us?” The answer is absolutely yes. It’s only a question of how soon.

At this point, we only know what Trump said. And as we all know, what Trump says and does, or can do are totally different things. It all adds a new and constant source of unknowns for the market.

Of course, it helps to have a half-century of trading experience, too. I like to tell my beginning subscribers, “Don’t worry, after the first 50 years, this gets easy.”

Except easy it is not, going into the next several couple of years.

In a few months, it will be Ground Hog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil will call the weather for the next six weeks from his hilltop in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania.

For the financial markets, it could mean six more MONTHS of winter.

Nobody wants to sell because they believe in a longer-term bull case going into yearend.

In the meantime, they are buying deregulation plays (JPM), (GS), (BLK), and Tesla (TSLA) as a hedge against the next Tweet.

We could see a repeat of the first half of 2017 when markets rocketed and then died.

This is what a Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX) is screaming right in your face, kissing the $13 handle.

The never-ending tweets are eroding the bull case by the day.

So, we’re at war with Canada now? Wait! I thought it was Mexico? No, it’s France. If it’s Tuesday, this must be Belgium.

And our new ally? Russia!

Even the Federal Reserve is hinting in yesterday’s statement that it is going into “RISK OFF” mode, possibly postponing a December interest rate cut indefinitely.

Unfortunately, that completely sucks the life out of our short Treasury bond trade (TLT), (TBT) for the time being, a big earner for us earlier this year.

Flat to rising interest rates also demolish small caps and other big borrowers (homebuilders, real estate, REITs, cruise lines).

The market is priced for perfection, and if perfection doesn’t show, we have a BIG problem.

All of this leads up to the good news that followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader enjoyed almost a perfect month in November.

Trade Alert Service in November

 

(DHI) 11/$135-$145 call spread

(GLD) 12/$435-$340 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$3.90-$400 put spread

(JPM) 11/$195-$205 call spread

(CCJ) 12/$41-44 call spread

(JPM) 12/$210-$220 call spread

(NVDA) 12/$117-$120 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$230-$240 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$250-$260 call spread

(TSLA) 12/$270-$275 call spread

(MS) 12/$110-$115 call spread

(C) 12/$60-$65 calls spread

(BAC) 12/$41-$44 call spreads

(VST) 12/$115-$120 call spread

(BLK) 12/$950-$960 call spread

 

The net of all of this is that 2024 is looking like a gangbuster year for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, up 18.96% in November and 72.00% YTD, compared to only 26.62% for the S&P 500.

It seems that the harder I work, the luckier I get.

 

 

 

 

 

Hanging With David Tepper

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/John-Thomas-David-Tepper.jpg 303 387 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-12-03 09:04:182024-12-03 11:36:37It's Groundhog Day
Douglas Davenport

A LITTLE LESS CONVERSATION, A LITTLE MORE AI ACTION

Mad Hedge AI

(AMZN), (NVDA), (GOOG), (MSFT), (AAPL), (CRM), (ORCL), (IBM), (TSLA)

In 1956, Elvis Presley's "Heartbreak Hotel" topped the charts, teenagers swooned, and parents worried about the decay of civilization. 

That same year, a group of scientists at Dartmouth College coined the term "artificial intelligence," boldly predicting human-level machine intelligence within a generation. 

Seven decades later, I'm debating with Google’s Gemini about whether a hot dog qualifies as a sandwich. (For the record, Gemini’s argument about structural integrity and bread-to-filling ratios was disturbingly convincing.)

I've analyzed markets for decades, but what's happening now makes those early dot-com days look positively quaint. 

Amazon (AMZN) just dropped $4 billion into a startup called Anthropic bringing their total investment to $8 billion. 

But Amazon isn't just throwing cash around for fun. They're rolling out custom-designed chips called Trainium and Inferentia to power Anthropic's AI systems through AWS. 

Essentially, this move is a direct challenge to Nvidia's (NVDA) GPU dominance in the AI space. 

Anthropic, founded in 2021 by OpenAI defectors, has rocketed from startup to major player with stunning speed. 

In 2023, Google (GOOG) spotted their potential early and invested $500 million. Now with Amazon's backing, they've got serious muscle. 

Considering the massive potential of the AI space, it’s not surprising that the tech giants are picking sides. 

Amazon, Anthropic, and Alphabet form one power group, combining Amazon's cloud infrastructure, Anthropic's AI expertise, and Google's massive data resources. 

Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI make up another, leveraging their Azure cloud platform and GPT technology to dominate enterprise AI solutions. 

Apple's (AAPL) pulled off an exclusive deal to bring ChatGPT to iPhones - because apparently, Siri needed some company. This move signals that AI will be the next major battleground in consumer tech.

The November numbers reflect these strategic moves. 

Amazon's roughly at $206, buoyed by investors betting on their AI infrastructure play. Microsoft commands $423, their OpenAI partnership driving cloud revenue growth. Alphabet sits at approximately $171, their diverse AI portfolio attracting long-term investors. 

Nvidia, despite Amazon's chip rebellion, holds steady at $135 – proof that the AI boom needs more than just one chip supplier.

And the ripple effects are transforming every sector. 

IBM's (IBM) Watson has evolved from winning Jeopardy! to analyzing medical data, opening up a $500 billion healthcare AI market. 

Oracle (ORCL) finally made databases interesting – words I never thought I'd type. They’re leveraging AI to automate complex data operations, capturing enterprise clients from traditional providers. 

Salesforce (CRM) embedded AI so deeply in their platform that their software predicts customer needs before customers even have them. I tested this claim. It knew I wanted to upgrade before I did. Unnerving.

Tesla's (TSLA) AI is teaching cars to distinguish between fire hydrants and pedestrians. 

As someone who's had close encounters with both, I appreciate the effort. Though I'm still waiting for AI that can successfully negotiate with traffic cops.

So, how do you get a piece of the action? Consider keeping a close eye on industry leaders like Amazon and Microsoft for their cloud AI dominance, Alphabet for its research prowess, and Nvidia for AI hardware leadership. 

And don't overlook IBM, Oracle, and Salesforce for enterprise AI applications. Adding these names to your watchlist could position you well as the AI revolution unfolds.

Needless to say, the stakes here are unprecedented. My first tech investment was in a company making faster floppy disk drives. 

Now, I'm watching firms develop artificial minds that outthink teams of PhDs. The money flowing into AI makes those early internet investments look like spare change in a couch. And the pace is only accelerating.

The AI movement isn't approaching – it's here, changing our world faster than rock and roll transformed music. 

We've got front-row seats to the biggest show since the internet. As Elvis would say, "It's now or never" for AI investing. Just make sure you don't end up at Heartbreak Hotel.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Screenshot-2024-12-02-153500.png 676 674 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2024-12-02 15:36:212024-12-02 15:36:21A LITTLE LESS CONVERSATION, A LITTLE MORE AI ACTION
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