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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert – (DELL) February 7, 2025 – SELL – TAKE PROFITS

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-07 11:17:302025-02-07 11:18:06Trade Alert – (DELL) February 7, 2025 – SELL – TAKE PROFITS
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 7, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 7, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)
(TLT), (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-07 09:04:162025-02-07 11:29:28February 7, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away

Diary, Homepage Posts, Newsletter

I just received an excited text message from an excited Concierge client. His short position in the (TSLA) February 2025 $540-$550 vertical bear put debit spread had just been called away. That meant he would receive the maximum profit a full 11 trading days before the February 21 option expiration.

With the heightened volatility this week, I am seeing an increasing number of options positions assigned or called away.

I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.

I still have five positions left in my model trading portfolio that is deep in-the-money, and about to expire in 9 trading days on the February 21 options expiration day. Those are the

 

Current Capital at Risk

 

Risk On 

(TSLA) 2/$300-$310 call spread        10.00%

(TSLA) 2/$310-$320 call spread        10.00%

(NVDA) 2/$90-$95 call spread           10.00%

(VST) 2/$100-$110 call spread           10.00%

 

Risk Off

(TSLA) 2/$540-$550 spread            -10.00%

 

Total Net Position                                30.00%

Total Aggregate Position                   50.00%

 

 

That opens up a set of risks unique to these positions.

I call it the “Screw up risk.”

As long as the markets maintain current levels, this position will expire at its maximum profit value.

There is a heightened probability that your short position in the options may get called away.

Although the return for those calling away your options is very small, this is how to handle these events.

If exercised, brokers are required by law to email you immediately, and I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.

If it happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.

Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.

The short options can get “assigned” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.

You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.

Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away.

I’ll use the example of the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) August 2024 $405-$415 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread since so many of you had these.

For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 11 days before the August 16 expiration date.

In other words, what you bought for $8.70 on July 12 is now worth $10.00, giving you a near-instant profit of $1,300 or 14.94% in only  11 trading days.

All you had to do was to call your broker to instruct them to “exercise your long position in your (BRK/B) August 16 $405 calls to close out your short position in the (BRK/B) August 2024 $410 calls.”

You must do this in person. Brokers are not allowed to exercise options automatically, on their own, without your expressed permission.

You also must do this the same day that you receive the exercise notice.

This is a perfectly hedged position. The name, the ticker symbol, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.

Call options are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.

Short positions usually only get called away for dividend-paying stocks or interest-paying ETFs like the (BRK/B). There are strategies out here that try to capture dividends the day before they are payable. Exercising an option is one way to do that.

Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.

A call owner may need to sell a long (BRK/B) position after the close, and exercising his long (BRK/B) call, which you are short, is the only way to execute it.

Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.

There are thousands of algorithms out there that may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.

Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day, which can be achieved through option exercises.

And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.

And here’s another possible outcome in this process.

Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.

There is a further annoying complication that leads to a lot of confusion. Lately, brokers have resorted to sending you warnings that exercises MIGHT happen to help mitigate their own legal liability.

They do this even when such an exercise has zero probability of happening, such as with a short call option in a LEAPS that has a year or more left until expiration. Just ignore these, or call your broker and ask them to explain.

This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.

There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.

Avarice could have been an explanation here, but I think stupidity, poor training, and low wages are much more likely.

Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.

This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers, but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.

Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.

If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.

Professionals do these things all day long, and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.

If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.

 

 

 

 

Calling All Options!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Call-Options.png 345 522 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-07 09:02:442025-02-20 12:38:47A Note on Assigned Options, or Options Called Away
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 6, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 6, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(YOU MIGHT NEED ASPIRIN FOR THIS ONE)

(PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-06 12:02:132025-02-06 11:49:26February 6, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

You Might Need Aspirin For This One

Biotech Letter

Last Tuesday, while filing away some tax documents, I found myself staring at an old prescription bottle from 2020. The Pfizer (PFE) logo caught my eye, and ironically, that same morning they dropped their Q4 earnings report.

The timing felt symbolic – much like that old bottle, Pfizer’s COVID glory days are now just a memory on their financial statements.

The numbers looked good on the surface. EPS of $0.63 beat expectations by $0.17, and revenue came in at a healthy $17.8B, crushing estimates by $540M.

But in the pharmaceutical world, today’s blockbuster is tomorrow’s generic, and Wall Street knows it. After all, the market’s reaction was about as enthusiastic as a patient reading medication side effects.

Let me paint you a picture of what we’re dealing with here. Imagine going from making $100.3B in 2022 (those glory days of COVID) to $58.5B in 2023. That’s not a haircut – that’s a full-blown scalping.

Sure, they bounced back to $63.6B in 2024, but their 2025 guidance of $61.0B to $64.0B suggests they’re treading water at best.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, and not in a good way. Remember how I always tell you to look under the hood? Well, Pfizer’s engine is about to lose some major parts.

By 2030, they’re saying goodbye to patents on Eliquis (a $6.7B revenue generator) and Ibrance (worth $4.8B). That’s like losing your two best-performing stocks in your portfolio – it hurts.

Speaking of pain, I had lunch last week with a pharmaceutical industry veteran who couldn’t stop talking about the “LOE wave” – that’s “loss of exclusivity” in pharma-speak. CEO Albert Bourla puts it at about $17-18 billion in lost revenue over the next 3-4 years.

To put that in perspective, that’s like losing the annual GDP of Mongolia. The company’s solution? They’re promising to deliver $20 billion in new revenues by 2030 through their pipeline of new drugs.

One bright spot worth watching is their oncology division, which grew an impressive 27.4% year-over-year in 2024.

Their promising candidate Atirmociclib, a CDK4i inhibitor for metastatic breast cancer, enters Phase 3 studies in the first half of 2025.

With a 44% historical success rate for these types of studies, it’s targeting a massive market – the global breast cancer therapeutics market hit $34.63 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $89.01 billion by 2034, growing at a healthy 9.90% annually.

That’s the kind of growth potential that gets my attention.

The stock currently sports a 6.7% dividend yield, which might look tempting – like that last piece of chocolate cake in the refrigerator at midnight.

But here’s the rub: pharmaceutical companies are like Silicon Valley startups with lab coats. They constantly need to innovate just to stay alive. It’s not enough to have one hit wonder – you need a whole playlist of blockbusters.

Trading at 8.91x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.20 and 2.5x price/sales, Pfizer does look cheap. But as I always say, sometimes things are cheap for a reason.

Want a shocking comparison? While attending the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, I noticed that analysts are projecting Pfizer’s 2029 revenues to be over $5 billion lower than 2024. That’s not exactly the inspiring growth story I was hoping to hear.

For those of you hunting for yield (and I know many of you are), let me give you a reality check. That juicy 6.7% dividend looks appetizing until you realize it comes from a company that needs to spend billions just to replace what it’s about to lose.

While I love a good yield as much as the next investor, watching a pharmaceutical company’s patents march toward expiration is about as comforting as sitting in a dentist’s waiting room.

Sometimes the best high-yield investment is the one you don’t make – at least until the business fundamentals match the dividend’s promise.

Want my advice? Keep an eye on their oncology developments, but keep your powder dry. There’s a difference between buying a great company and buying a great stock at the right time.

Right now, Pfizer needs to prove it can fill an $18 billion revenue gap before I’m ready to write them a prescription for my portfolio.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-06 12:00:372025-02-06 11:49:02You Might Need Aspirin For This One
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 6, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 6, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

SPECIAL EARLY RETIREMENT ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(HOW TO JOIN THE EARLY RETIREMENT STAMPEDE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-06 09:04:102025-02-06 16:14:31February 6, 2025
Douglas Davenport

MARKET LOGIC.EXE HAS CRASHED

Mad Hedge AI

(AVGO), (GOOG), (META), (AMZN), (NVDA), (TSM)

Last weekend, while cleaning up my home office, I came across an old Intel 486 processor I’d kept as a memento from my first custom-built PC. 

Funny how things change – that chip had about 1.2 million transistors. Today’s AI accelerator chips? We’re talking billions. 

This old relic got me thinking about Broadcom (AVGO) and the recent market hysteria over AI chip competition.

Speaking of hysteria, let me tell you about the market’s latest panic attack. When news broke about DeepSeek’s supposedly cheaper-to-train Chinese language model, investors acted like someone had just announced the death of AI. 

Over $1 trillion in market cap vanished faster than a plate of cookies at a board meeting. 

And here’s the kicker: DeepSeek reportedly spent just $5.6M on training compared to Google (GOOG) DeepMind’s Gemini at $191M and OpenAI’s GPT-4 at $78M.

Broadcom took a nasty hit in this selloff, dropping 17.3% at its worst. 

That’s quite a haircut for a company that just reported AI-related revenues of $12.2B – a whopping 41% of their semiconductor business in FY2024. For more context, that’s up 21 percentage points year-over-year.

But here’s where it gets curious. While having lunch with a semiconductor industry veteran the other day, he couldn’t stop talking about Broadcom’s custom ASIC business. 

These aren’t your garden-variety chips – they’re custom-designed AI accelerators for the likes of Google, Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And guess what? All these companies are ramping up their AI spending, not cutting back.

The numbers tell an intriguing story. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the world’s leading chip manufacturer, reports that their advanced 3nm and 5nm chips now represent 60% of revenue, up 8 points quarter-over-quarter and 10 points year-over-year. 

That’s not the trajectory of a dying industry – that’s a growth story with legs.

Want to talk about margins? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been enjoying gross margins of 75% in their latest quarter, up from 61.2% in FY2019, though down a bit from their peak of 78.4%. 

When you’re making margins like that, you’re practically printing money. No wonder hyperscalers are looking at custom ASICs as an alternative – and that’s where Broadcom shines.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Broadcom to grow revenue and earnings at a CAGR of 16.3% and 23.1% through FY2027. 

That’s not just impressive – it’s an acceleration from their already robust historical growth of 17.9% and 18% between FY2019 and FY2024.

The stock isn’t exactly cheap at 34.85x forward earnings, up from its 5-year mean of 20.11x. 

But in the context of the sector, with a forward PEG ratio of 1.69x compared to the sector median of 1.82x, it’s still digestible. 

NVIDIA, by comparison, trades at 40.66x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.07x.

Yes, the dividend yield has dropped to 1.07% from its 5-year average of 2.76%, but that’s what happens when your stock becomes a market darling. 

Short sellers seem to agree – they’ve reduced their bets against Broadcom by 7.9% compared to last year.

Here’s my bottom line: The market’s reaction to DeepSeek looks like a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. 

Broadcom isn’t just riding the AI wave – they’re helping build the surfboard. Their custom ASIC business is perfectly positioned as tech giants look to optimize their AI infrastructure costs.

That old 486 processor sitting on my desk reminds me of an important lesson: in tech, it’s not about where we’ve been, but where we’re going. 

And Broadcom? They’re headed toward the next generation of AI chips, with volume shipments of 3nm ASICs scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2025.

For now, I’m calling this one a Buy on any pullbacks. Sometimes the market hands you a gift wrapped in panic – this might be one of those times.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2025-02-05 16:22:542025-02-05 16:22:54MARKET LOGIC.EXE HAS CRASHED
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 5, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(AMAZON DOESN’T NEED WORKERS)
(AMZN), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 14:04:562025-02-05 16:15:47February 5, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Amazon Doesn’t Need Workers

Tech Letter

Flatten the curve!

No, I am not talking about that 2020 thing, I am talking about the CEO of Amazon Andy Jassy’s vendetta to remove the middle manager tier out of the company he runs.

Flatten the curve so there is no more middle manager and everyone is on the same level with higher-ups rejoicing with the entry levels.

Everything sounds ideal, right?

So why buy this company’s stock?

Why do it?

Easy answer – the stock price goes higher.

Jassy’s campaign to gut the bloat out including the higher earners of Amazon is ringing alarm bells within the employee ecosystem at Amazon.

Amazon is probably the worst FANG company to search for a job at this point. I would never recommend it to a friend.

The thing about Jeff Bezos, he paid his employees well and promised promotions and lots of other perks.

Jassy is promising the inverse and employee morale has fallen off a cliff then mixed into the fact that workers now go back to the office 5 days per week when the standard at other tech companies is a hybrid 3 days per week in-office requirement.

Tried and Tested Amazon’s career paths are drying up faster than the Salt Lake in Utah.

Managers fear replacement by lower-paid people with less experience and half a brain.

Jassy has even coined a new term “horizontal development” which he wants workers to understand as a fake promotion. 

Jassy even codified his philosophy into a published 1,400-word manifesto for change on Amazon’s corporate blog — where investors could read it — and appears to have targeted an entire layer of middle managers.

Jassy is pressuring HR to hire from a pool of recent college graduates to fill positions while finding reasons to remove more senior workers.

Jassy’s cost-cutting has helped increase profits in each of the past six quarters, and the shares have surged 42% in the last 12 months.

Targeting middle managers rather than front-line workers has become more common recently in corporate America because these people tend to have higher salaries and usually don’t contribute directly to a project by coding or negotiating deals.

Like 2024, I do believe Amazon has a great chance at defying the tech malaise by pushing the financials over the line.

The stock will be rewarded by a higher share price.

Let’s be straight, Amazon isn’t reinventing the wheel.

There is no big new shiny thing to hang their hat on.

But much like Tim Cook came in for Steven Jobs, Jassy has come in for Jeff Bezos to operate the hell out of Amazon and search for nickels in the corner of every couch.

Sadly, that is what has come of Silicon Valley and the “most innovative” place in the world.

The truth is that Silicon Valley isn’t innovating like it used to aside from a few people like the guy who figured out how to re-use rockets.

However, Amazon and Silicon Valley don’t need to offer something new when there is little competition besides the Chinese (which are taking over the iPhone and EV business).

Unluckily for China, it’s harder for the Chinese to replace a foreign e-commerce and logistics company while easier to rip off a smartphone.

Buy the dip in Amazon in 2025.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-05 14:02:092025-02-05 16:14:51Amazon Doesn’t Need Workers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 5, 2025 – Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“I’d rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.” – Said CEO of Twitter Elon Musk

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Elon.png 306 226 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-02-05 14:00:092025-02-05 16:14:10February 5, 2025 – Quote of the Day
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