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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (CRWD) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT

Tech Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 15:38:372025-02-21 15:38:37Trade Alert - (CRWD) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 21, 2025

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 21, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE AFFORDABLE IPHONE FROM APPLE)
(AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 14:04:522025-02-21 15:03:27February 21, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Affordable iPhone From Apple

Tech Letter

A $599 cheaper iPhone with worse features is clearly a sign that Apple (AAPL) is on its way down from peak innovation.

This new cheap phone won’t save the company, but the company doesn’t really need saving.

The company is on auto-pilot mode. Let me explain.

At this point, CEO Tim Cook has done the calculations and he has decided that the company doesn’t need to innovate.

Apple needs to milk its subscriber base whom are famously loyal to its ecosystem.

Apple users are the least likely to just jump ship and switch to the Android ecosystem.

Cook knows that which is why he can push through annual increases in service charges.

Apple’s balance sheet is also another key part of the story and Cook will wield it with extreme efficacy through shareholder returns.

It could be true that we are past the stage of Apple delivering big growth numbers.

That looks to be a thing of the past.

Now, competing with China on cheaper phones is a massive step back and it won’t flow through to the bottom line.

It’s easier to argue that this phone will cannibalize sales of Apple’s more expensive phones.

We have arrived at this point and it is sad for most technologists.

Apple AAPL expanded the iPhone 16 family with the launch of a cheaper iPhone 16e version powered by the latest A18 chip and supporting Apple Intelligence.

iPhone 16e is available in a 6.1-inch display size and has the best battery life ever on this display size offered by Apple. The iPhone 16e, available from Feb. 28, will cost $599 compared with $799 for iPhone 16 and $999 for iPhone 16 Pro.

Although iPhone sales decreased 0.8% year over year to $69.14 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Apple saw better iPhone 16 sales in those regions where Apple Intelligence was available. iPhone’s active installed base grew to an all-time high and saw a record level of upgrades in the reported quarter. The iPhone was a top-selling model in the United States, Urban China, India, the U.K., France, Australia and Japan.

AAPL maintained its lead over Samsung for the second consecutive year, with a market share of 23% compared with the latter’s 16%. Xiaomi trailed both Apple and Samsung with 13% market share. Global smartphone shipments increased 7% year over year to $1.22 billion units in 2024.

Apple has more than 1 billion paid subscribers in its ecosystem and the focus is entirely on them. There are only 8 billion people on this planet and Apple has decided it is not worth going after the other 7 billion.

If they haven’t adopted an Apple phone or tablet then this last cheap phone is the last chance. Even then, the reason they most likely haven’t adopted an Apple device is because they cannot afford it.

Apple shares are down 1% this year at the time of this writing and I still believe this is a buy-the-dip stock even with a weakening business model.

Apple knows they can withstand earnings whenever they want by just increasing their dividend.

Another headwind is that Apple is not one of the leaders in AI and shareholders will wait to see how that plays out.

Buy the dip in Apple, but don’t hold it long-term.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 14:02:582025-02-21 15:03:08The Affordable iPhone From Apple
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 14:02:062025-02-21 14:02:06Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 21, 2025

Jacque's Post

 

(A MARKET CAUGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS: WHICH WAY NOW?)

February 21, 2025

 

Hello everyone

 

Walmart's profit growth has slowed.  Just how healthy is the American consumer?

Mass sackings are happening now.  When people are employed, they spend.  When people are not employed, they stop spending.   It’s simple really.

The AI trade is motoring along; green shoots will take time to show. Competition is healthy.  But is U.S. AI tech expenditure sustainable, and is its extent warranted?  Deep Seek came out of nowhere as a wake-up call to U.S. tech elites. 

A chaotic U.S. administration is taunting the world about tariffs.  Trying to pin Trump down on his policies and plans going forward is akin to trying to catch a fish by hand in the ocean.

Bond yields are rising.    Has 7% entered your mind?

What about the possibility of interest rate rises sometime this year?  Start thinking about it.

Geopolitics is red hot – stakes are high as allies are being toyed with.

 

 

And the market is caught in the crosshairs. 

And yet, investors are still hoping for another record high for stocks in 2025.

What universe are they in?

Uncertainty rules the stage presently.  On the one hand, we can understand that the markets are in a healthy consolidation pattern – a healthy pause – after the robust market movements last year, and that bumpiness will be the new normal going forward.

On the other hand, we should be mindful of the whirlwind of factors that could buffet the market – Trump policies, Fed policy, earnings, a not-so-healthy American consumer, & the really big unknown – geopolitics.

My recommendation:  put sell-stops on all your stock holdings. 

QI CORNER

 

Linas Beliunas

 

This is huge! Microsoft just made a breakthrough in quantum computing and unveiled its first quantum chip Majorana 1

Majorana 1 is a quantum computing chip marking Microsoft's first use of topological qubits. These qubits are special because they use the shape or structure of the material, rather than individual particles, to store information, making them less prone to errors.

The wild part?

The chip relies on a new material called a top conductor, which can create a unique state of matter to host Majorana particles - exotic particles that are their own antiparticles.

Right now, it has eight of these topological qubits, but Microsoft’s goal is to scale up to a million qubits on a chip no bigger than your palm.

This is a huge deal because quantum computers need to be both reliable and large-scale to tackle real-world problems that classical computers can’t handle, like breaking encryption or simulating molecular interactions for new drugs.

Topological qubits are designed to be more error-resistant while current qubits are very sensitive to their surroundings, leading to mistakes.

If Microsoft succeeds, it could speed up the timeline for practical quantum computing from decades to years, opening doors in fields like:

- Cryptography: Breaking current encryption, pushing for new quantum-resistant methods.

- Drug Discovery: Faster simulation of molecular interactions, speeding up medicine development.

- Artificial Intelligence: Enhancing AI & machine learning with faster, more powerful computations.

- Climate Modeling: Better predictions through detailed simulations, aiding climate change strategies.

We're living in the golden age of tech innovation.

Fascinating times.

 

AUSTRALIAN CORNER

Chinese warships are in the Tasman Sea

 

 

Chinese warships are performing live firing exercises in the Tasman Sea (200 miles off the east coast of Australia).  International airlines, flying between Australia and New Zealand have been warned, and most have diverted around the area.

Australian military ships and planes have been monitoring the Chinese ships for days as they pass in international waters off the coast of the Australian east coast.

Australia sees this event as a provocative act and is watching closely.

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT

 

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 12:00:362025-02-21 12:10:46February 21, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 21, 2025

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 21, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE DEATH OF THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 09:04:392025-02-21 09:30:24February 21, 2025
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Death of the Financial Advisor

Diary, Newsletter

About one-third of my readers are professional financial advisors who earn their crust of bread telling clients how to invest their retirement assets for a fixed fee.

They used to earn a share of the brokerage fees they generated. After stock commissions went to near zero, they started charging a flat 1.25% a year on the assets they oversaw.

So it is with some sadness that I have watched this troubled industry enter a long-term secular decline, which seems to be worsening by the day.

Some miscreants steered clients into securities solely based on the commissions they earned, which could reach 8% or more, whether it made any investment sense or not. Some of the instruments the recommended were nothing more than blatant rip-offs.

Knowing hundreds of financial advisors personally, I can tell you that virtually all are hardworking professionals who go the extra mile to safeguard customer assets while earning incremental positive returns.

That is no easy task given the exponential speed with which the global economy is evolving. Yesterday’s “window and orphans” safe bets can transform overnight into today’s reckless adventure.

Look no further than coal, energy, and the auto industry. Once a mainstay of conservative portfolios, all of these sectors have or came close to filing for bankruptcy.

Even my own local power utility, Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PGE), filed for Chapter 11 in 2001 because they couldn’t game the electric power markets as well as Enron, and again in 2019 because of liability stemming from wildfires.

Some advisors even go the extent of scouring the Internet for a trade mentoring service that can ease their burden, like the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, to get their clients that extra edge.

Traditional financial managers have been under siege for decades.

Commissions have been cut, expenses increased, and mysterious “fees” have started showing up on customer statements.

Those who work for big firms, like UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks, UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Charles Schwab, have seen health insurance coverage cut back and deductibles raised.

The safety of custody with big firms has always been a myth. Remember, all of these guys would have gone under during the 2008-09 financial crash if they hadn’t been bailed out by the government. With deregulation now rampant, you can count on it happening again.

The quality of the research has taken a nosedive, with sectors, like small caps, no longer covered. My research is now focused on, you guessed it, the Magnificent Seven.

What remains offers nothing but waffle and indecision. Many analysts are afraid to commit to a real recommendation for fear of getting sued, or worse, scaring away lucrative investment banking business.

And have you noticed that after Dodd-Frank, two-thirds of brokerage reports are made up of disclosures?

Many advisors have, in fact, evolved over the decades from money managers to asset gatherers and relationship managers.

Their job is now to steer investors into “safe” funds managed by third parties that have to carry all of the liability for bad decisions (buying energy plays in 2014?).

The firms have effectively become toll-takers, charging a commission for anything that moves.

They have become so risk averse that they have banned participation in anything exotic, like options, option spreads, (VIX) trading, any 2X leveraged ETFs, or inverse ETFs of any kind. When dealing in esoterica is permitted, the commissions are doubled.

Even my own newsletter has to get a compliance review before it is distributed to clients, often provided by third parties to smaller firms.

“Every year they try to chip away at something”, one beleaguered advisor confided to me with despair.

Big brokers often hype their own services with expensive advertising campaigns that unrealistically elevate client expectations.

Modern media doesn’t help either.

I can’t tell you how many times I have had to convince advisors not to dump all their stocks at a market bottom because of something they heard on TV, saw on the Internet, or read in a competing newsletter warning that financial Armageddon was imminent.

Customers are force-fed the same misinformation. One of my main jobs is to provide advisors with the fodder they need to refute the many “end of the world” scenarios that seem to be in continuous circulation.

In fact, a sudden wave of such calls has proven to be a great “bottoming” indicator for me.

Personally, I don’t expect to see another major financial crisis until 2032 at the earliest, and by then, I’ll probably be dead.

Because of all of the above, about half of my financial advisor readers have confided in me a desire to go independent in the near future, if they are not already.

Sure, they won’t be ducking all these bullets. But at least they will have an independent business they can either sell at a future date or pass on to a succeeding generation.

Overheads are far easier to control when you own your own business, and the tax advantages can be substantial.

A secular trend away from non-discretionary to discretionary account management is a decisive move in this direction.

There seems to be a great separation of the wheat from the chaff going on in the financial advisory industry.

Those who can stay ahead of the curve, both with the markets and their own business models, are soaking up all the assets. Those who can’t are unable to hold on to enough money to keep their businesses going concerns.

Let’s face it, in the modern age, every industry is being put through a meat grinder. Thanks to hyper-accelerating technology, business models are changing by the day.

Just be happy you’re not a doctor trying to figure out Obamacare.

Those individuals who can reinvent themselves quickly will succeed. Those that won’t will quickly be confined to the dustbin of history.

 

It’s Not as Good as it Used to Be

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/officemates.png 474 544 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-21 09:02:492025-02-21 09:30:05The Death of the Financial Advisor
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 21, 2025 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“The car business is hell,” said founder Elon Musk, when announcing he would sleep in the Fremont Tesla factory until Model S production reached 2,500 units a week.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/tesla.png 331 443 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2025-02-21 09:00:092025-02-21 09:29:56February 21, 2025 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (VST) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFITS

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-20 12:43:052025-02-20 12:43:05Trade Alert - (VST) February 21, 2025 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFITS
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 20, 2025

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 20, 2025
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT DURING PAIN MANAGEMENT)

(VRTX), (DSNKY), (AZN), (GILD), (SNY), (GSK), (JNJ), (BMY), (LLY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-02-20 12:02:022025-02-20 12:06:36February 20, 2025
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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