Global Market Comments
April 3, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS ASSIGNED OR CALLED AWAY)
(NVDA), (COST), (TSLA)
Global Market Comments
April 3, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS ASSIGNED OR CALLED AWAY)
(NVDA), (COST), (TSLA)
I just received an excited text message from an excited Concierge client. His long position in the (NVDA) April 17 2025 $90-$95 vertical bull call debit spread had just been called away. That meant he would receive the maximum profit a full 10 trading days before the April 17 option expiration. Whoever called away the option ended up eating all of the remaining premium.
With the heightened volatility today, I am seeing an increasing number of options positions assigned or called away.
I know all of this may sound confusing at first. But once you get the hang of it, this is the greatest way to make money since sliced bread.
I still have three positions left in my model trading portfolio that are deep in-the-money, and about to expire in 10 trading days on the April 17 options expiration day. Those are the
(NVDA) 4/$90-$95 call spread 10.00%
(COST) 4/$840-$850 call spread 10.00%
(TSLA) 4/$160/$170 put spread 10.00%
That opens up a set of risks unique to these positions.
I call it the “Screw up risk.”
As long as the markets maintain current levels, this position will expire at its maximum profit value.
There is a heightened probability that your short position in the options may get called away.
Although the return for those calling away your options is very small, this is how to handle these events.
If exercised, brokers are required by law to email you immediately.
If it happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short-option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away.
I’ll use the example of the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) from last August $405-$415 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread since so many of you had these.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 11 days before the August 16 expiration date.
In other words, what you bought for $8.70 on July 12 is now worth $10.00, giving you a near-instant profit of $1,300 or 14.94% in only 11 trading days.
All you have to do is call your broker and instruct them to “exercise your long position in your (BRK/B) August 16 $405 calls to close out your short position in the (BRK/B) August $410 calls.”
You must do this in person. Brokers are not allowed to exercise options automatically, on their own, without your expressed permission.
You also must do this the same day that you receive the exercise notice.
This is a perfectly hedged position. The name, the ticker symbol, the number of shares, and the number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Call options are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
Short positions usually only get called away for dividend-paying stocks or interest-paying ETFs like the (BRK/B). There are strategies out there that try to capture dividends the day before they are payable. Exercising an option is one way to do that.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to sell a long (BRK/B) position after the close, and exercising his long (BRK/B) call, which you are short, is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there that may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it.
There is a further annoying complication that leads to a lot of confusion. Lately, brokers have resorted to sending you warnings that exercises MIGHT happen to help mitigate their own legal liability.
They do this even when such an exercise has zero probability of happening, such as with a short call option in a LEAPS that has a year or more left until expiration. Just ignore these, or call your broker and ask them to explain.
This generates tons of commissions for the broker but is a terrible thing for the trader to do from a risk point of view, such as generating a loss by the time everything is closed and netted out.
There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many ways to steal money legally that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
Calling All Options!
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau,” said economist Irving Fisher….just before the 1929 stock market crash.
The reverberations through Wall Street were palpable as the first quarter of 2025 drew to a close. The Nasdaq 100, the bellwether index for the technology sector, had just concluded its most turbulent period in nearly three years, a dramatic downturn fueled by a confluence of economic anxieties and, most notably, escalating fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
The sharp correction, which saw the index shed a significant percentage of its value, served as a stark reminder of the market's inherent volatility, even in the face of seemingly unstoppable technological advancement. The prior year's exuberant rally, driven by the promise of AI's transformative potential, had given way to a sobering reassessment of valuations and the sustainability of the AI-driven surge.
A Perfect Storm of Uncertainty
Several factors contributed to the Nasdaq 100's precipitous decline. Concerns over rising interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability created a climate of widespread unease. However, it was the growing apprehension surrounding the AI sector that proved to be the most decisive catalyst.
The Impact on Tech Giants
The downturn had a particularly pronounced impact on some of the largest and most influential companies in the Nasdaq 100. Tech titans that had led the AI-fueled rally experienced substantial declines in their share prices.
Market Analysis and Investor Sentiment
Analysts pointed to a shift in investor sentiment, from unbridled optimism to cautious skepticism. The prevailing narrative had transitioned from "AI can do anything" to "at what cost, and when will we see returns?"
Looking Ahead: The Future of AI and the Nasdaq 100
The long-term implications of the Nasdaq 100's downturn remain uncertain. While the AI sector's potential remains undeniable, the market's recent correction underscores the importance of realistic valuations and sustainable growth.
Key Takeaways
The recent market correction serves as a potent reminder of the inherent volatility of financial markets and the importance of disciplined investing. As the AI sector continues to evolve, investors will need to carefully weigh the potential rewards against the inherent risks.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
April 2, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE TRUTH ABOUT TESLA THE BUSINESS MODEL)
(TSLA), (DOGE)
It is becoming more than obvious that Elon Musk’s venture into politics is hurting his business as Tesla dishes us some bad results from the latest quarter.
The amount of global deliveries failed to meet the mark and demand has been sapped for a variety of reasons.
Before getting more into it, I must say that European and American EV makers face an existential test against the Chinese and this challenge isn’t a decade or 2 off – it is right here and right now.
China has used its technological prowess to quickly rise up through the value-added supply chain and they now make a smartphone almost as high quality as an iPhone but for just a fraction of the price.
If we extrapolate this concept further out in terms of directional trajectory, the Chinese will most likely reproduce a similar outcome in aviation, humanoid robots, AI, semiconductor chips, automation and every leading tech sub-sector.
Musk certainly knows this which is why he is pivoting to robo-taxis and humanoid projects that are making headway, but not ready for commercial use.
The pie shrinking and the Chinese grabbing larger pieces of it is why Tesla only reported a paltry 336,681 deliveries versus 390,342 estimated.
This marks the worst quarter for deliveries since the second quarter of 2022.
The refreshed Model Y went on sale globally in March, which could be a reason for depressed demand for its top-selling vehicle.
Tesla sales have been stalling across most of its global territories. Earlier this week, Tesla registration data in key European regions fell in March, another sign that sales are continuing to slide in one of its key markets as Tesla's brand has also taken a backseat to Elon Musk’s political foray.
In France, only 3,157 Tesla EVs were registered, down 36.8% from a year ago. Norway saw only 2,211 registrations, down 63.9%. Sweden’s tally of 911 was only down 1%.
Tesla’s registrations are a close proxy for sales, which the company only reports quarterly and does not break out by region.
Another worrying trend that I must bring up is the rapid increase in political violence against Tesla products which is quickly muddying the prestigious brand.
Consumers simply won’t feel safe to buy or drive around in a Tesla if there is a good chance it will get blown up or vandalized.
It would be a good idea for Tesla if Musk clarified his role in running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and balancing his duties with Tesla.
Even if he does clarify his position, then it could all be for naught with politics quickly dissolving into a zero-sum game in almost every G20 country.
If we step back and look at the broader picture, it appears as if Tesla and Musk have run up to the extreme limit of his personal and political success in the short-term.
Any further meaningful progress will mean Musk “breaks the wall” and radically pivots into something new that will be the catalyst for another leg up in Tesla shares. He will also need federal government cooperation to do this which he didn’t have in the last administration.
Unfortunately, that transition process could become acutely painful for Tesla the business model in the short-term, and any trader looking for a quick mini-dip buy should avoid Tesla for now.
For long-term investors, this is a stock that hasn’t factored in robo-taxi or humanoid technology, and if anyone gets to deploy these two technologies, it will be Tesla and nobody else.
The risks to innovation can be sometimes existential while sting in the short-term, and Musk is finding that out in all its glory.
In the short-term, put on your seatbelt for heightened volatility, and long-term, buy and hold Tesla.
“I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact.” – Said CEO of Tesla Elon Musk
(THE TESLA BRAND IS ON THE NOSE)
April 2, 2025
Hello everyone
A brand-new updated Model Y is expected to arrive in Australia within weeks.
Is there a sense of excitement about this event?
I don’t think so.
Rather, there is a rising angry sentiment toward Elon Musk and his political movements.
We now see evidence of customer wrath as Tesla car yards are packed with current old stock that nobody wants. In addition to full car yards, there have been violent attacks on dealerships, cars set on fire, and mass demonstrations around the world.
The Tesla car has lost value, and customers aren’t coming back to buy again.
One Tesla Cyber truck owner has taken things a step further, putting the badge of rival electric vehicle maker Rivian RIVN on his electric truck.
People, who are selling stickers through Etsy, which show their discontent with Musk’s politics are making a fortune. Instead of selling their Tesla, customers are revealing their stance through stickers placed on their cars.
But many have sold their cars.
Celebrities who have ditched their Teslas
Arizonia Democrat, Sen. Mark Kelly.
Jason Bateman, who said, “owning a Tesla felt like driving around with a Trump sticker on the car.”
Sheryl Crow, who donated the money from the sale of her Tesla to NPR, which Musk has criticized and called to defund. NPR says it receives less than 1% of its funding directly from the federal government.
Joanne Wilson, and her venture capitalist husband, Fred Wilson, sold their Teslas in protest of Musk’s actions at DOGE.
In contrast, President Trump has bought two Teslas.
Tesla is facing more competition
Aside from the anger directed at the Tesla brand, which is facing falling sales, there is also increased competition from rival EV brands, such as BYD, which are showing rising sales and are equally techy and much more affordable.
Despite this competition, some analysts are still looking at Tesla as a stock to buy
Elon Musk needs to choose. Where does his loyalty really lie – is it with Tesla or with his political ambitions?
Please Note: This Post is not a recommendation to buy Tesla at this time.
What’s a better AI play than Nvidia?
Think Alibaba.
Many analysts believe shares in Alibaba are still very undervalued, even though the Chinese e-commerce platform has soared more than 56% in 2025.
Other reasons…
Chinese consumers are now spending again.
And Artificial Intelligence is an underappreciated growth driver for this technology giant.
The stock also boasts a healthy balance sheet.
While it does have some debt, the $235 billion company only holds around $28.8 billion in borrowings, and it has nearly twice that amount in cash and liquid assets. In addition, it has generated $14.5 billion worth of free cash flow in the past year.
We also may see an Alipay kind of announcement sometime this year.
If you’re interested in the Chinese market and AI, it’s a good time to scale into Alibaba here, as it has pulled back nicely.
Alibaba: $132.70
Cheers
Jacquie
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 1, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW ONE SMUG DANE MADE ME EAT MY WORDS)
(NVO), (LLY), (ULIHF), (LXRX)
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