Global Market Comments
April 23, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHERE’S THIS MARKET BOTTOM?),
(SPX), (INDU), (TLT),
(THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE)
Global Market Comments
April 23, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHERE’S THIS MARKET BOTTOM?),
(SPX), (INDU), (TLT),
(THE ONE SAFE PLACE IN REAL ESTATE)
After Monday’s 1,200-point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen 20.88% from its February peak. And we may still have a “Sell in May” ahead of us.
This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the March 2000 Dotcom Top and the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience. It seems that everyone in the world is now dumping US bonds and dollars as well.
With a price/earnings multiple of 20, we are still near the top of a long-time historic range of 9-22. High US interest rates make that level appear even more expensive. The “Buy the Dip” crowd has become an extinct species.
So, how much lower do we have to go? I just completed a conference call with some major hedge fund traders, and thought I‘d throw out my numbers and the logic behind them. The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:
-20.88% - 4,850 – The April 9 low before a tweet triggered a monster 500-point rally. The market is begging for a retest of this level.
-29.52% - 4,320 is an earnings multiple of 18X times unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.
-37.35% - 3,840 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $240 a share.
-39.96% - 3,680 is an earnings multiple of 16X times a lower earnings for the (SPX) of $230 a share.
-42.57% - 3,520 is an earnings multiple of 13X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of a recessionary $220 a share.
-45.18% - 3,360 is an earnings multiple of 16X times an unchanged earnings for the (SPX) of $210 a share, which assumes the trade war with China extends into 2026.
Big swings in the market also often start and finish around an options expiration, which takes place on the third Friday of each month.
To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the “Lead Contract.” There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser-like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says “Jump,” and we ask “How High?” It is also always changing.
Right now, the bond market futures are the lead contract. When bonds rise and interest rates fall, it is a positive for equities. When bonds fall and rates rise, the “Sell America” trade is back on, leading to the dumping of all US assets. If you want to get a preview of each day’s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in the US bond futures in Singapore, as I often do.
Looking for More Market Insights
I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this time of great turmoil that might actually make sense.
By 2050, the population of California will soar from 40 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 340 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA Factbook (check out the population pyramid below).
That means enormous demand for the low end of the housing market–apartments in multi-family dwellings. They will be joined by generational demand for limited rental housing by 65 million Gen Xer’s and 85 million Millennials enduring a lower standard of living than their parents and grandparents.
These people aren’t going to be living in cardboard boxes under freeway overpasses. The trend towards apartments also fits neatly with the downsizing needs of 80 million retiring Baby Boomers. So you have three different generations converging on a single sector of the real estate market. Prices here will hold up, and may even rise.
Rents are now rising at more than 5% a year in some of the more popular markets, and vacancies are dropping like a stone. Good luck finding an apartment in Silicon Valley. Fannie and Freddie financing is still abundantly available.
Institutions combing the landscape for low volatility cash flows and limited risk are now accounting for up to 30% of the low-end market. In some markets, it is now cheaper to buy than to rent, a 50-year reversal, if you can get the credit.
More a Rectangle Than a Pyramid
“Real Estate is the new gold. It is the gold of 2025,” said Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline Capital
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 22, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NO MORE TEARS)
(JNJ)
Remember when your mom told you to eat your vegetables? "They're boring but good for you," she'd insist while you eyed that chocolate cake across the room.
Well, in today's market, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is that plate of nutritious broccoli – not the sexiest option on the table, but exactly what your financial diet needs.
And if Q1 earnings are any indication, this particular vegetable is secretly packed with more flavor than the market gave it credit for.
Their recent earnings report confirms what I've been telling anyone who would listen: this pharmaceutical tortoise is quietly outpacing flashier hares.
Sales increased 2.4% year-over-year to $21.9 billion, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating that steady growth doesn't need to make headlines to fill portfolios.
While the headline diluted EPS was an eye-popping $4.54 (up over 235%), those savvy enough will look at the adjusted figure of $2.77 (excluding one-time charges) for a more realistic picture of operational performance.
Diving deeper into the numbers reveals a company firing on multiple cylinders.
The MedTech division grew 4.1% to $8 billion, with cardiovascular products leading the charge at 17.7% growth.
Meanwhile, Pharmaceuticals grew 4.2% to $13.87 billion, with oncology growing an impressive 20% to $5.68 billion.
Multiple myeloma therapy Darzalex continues its blockbuster trajectory at $3.24 billion, while the approval of Rybrevant in non-small-cell lung cancer adds yet another potential multi-billion dollar earner to the medicine cabinet.
Now, let's talk about pharmaceutical patent cliffs.
Stelara, JNJ's immunology golden goose, is mid-plummet, with Q1 revenues down 33% to $1.63 billion. As expected, though, JNJ has been quietly lining up replacements.
Their immunology bullpen includes nipocalimab (sporting FDA Fast Track status) and icotrokinra (which cleared skin in 84% of adolescent psoriasis patients).
You can actually practically smell the confidence wafting from management's quarterly statements.
They've bumped their full-year revenue guidance to $91.6-$92.4 billion and hiked the quarterly dividend by 4.8% to $1.30 per share. That makes 63 consecutive years of dividend increases.
I'd be remiss not to mention the twin storm clouds hovering over our healthcare heavyweight.
First, there's the $6.97 billion charge for talc lawsuits after a bankruptcy judge essentially told JNJ their "Texas two-step" legal maneuver was more of a stumble.
Second, the Trump administration's threatened 25% pharmaceutical tariffs. With roughly 44% of Q1 revenues coming from overseas ($9.6 billion compared to $12.3 billion domestic), JNJ isn't completely sheltered from cross-border economic squabbles.
But here's where JNJ's strategic thinking earns my respect: they're doubling down on America with a $55 billion U.S. expansion planned over the next four years.
Back when I was launching hedge funds in the late '80s, I quickly learned to separate companies that merely react to policy changes from those that anticipate and adapt. JNJ falls firmly in the latter category.
For the number-crunchers among you (my people!), JNJ trades at 25.6 times earnings with a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 19.95. I ran this through my DCF model using a 10% discount rate.
The math suggests JNJ needs approximately 5% annual free cash flow growth to justify today's price.
With MedTech projected to grow 5-7% annually and Pharmaceuticals showing similar potential, plus those steady share buybacks reducing the float at 1.14% yearly, my spreadsheets spit out an intrinsic value of about $168.39 per share – roughly 7% above where we stand today.
Not a screaming bargain, but a fair price for a company that's mastered the art of sustainable growth.
JNJ won't make you the star of your next cocktail party investment brag-fest. But when markets start convulsing like they've touched a live wire, these steady healthcare veterans tend to keep their vital signs stable.
While your trendier holdings might need intensive care during volatility, JNJ has spent over a century perfecting the art of financial first aid.
In a market that often leaves investors reaching for tissues, JNJ's steady performance lives up to its most famous promise: no more tears.
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
April 22, 2025
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE GOVERNMENT’S WAR ON MONEY)
(TESTIMONIAL)
"Sometimes we stare so long at a door that is closing that we see too late the one that is open," said Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone.
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