• Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Ussupport@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Search
  • Menu

They’re Not Making Americans Anymore

Diary, Newsletter, Research

You can count on a bear market hitting sometime in 2038, one falling by at least 25%.

Worse, there is almost a guarantee that a financial crisis, severe bear market, and possibly another Great Depression will take place no later than 2058 that would take the major indexes down by 50% or more. 

No, I have not taken to using a Ouija board, reading tea leaves, nor examining animal entrails in order to predict the future. It can be much easier than that.

I simply read the data just released from the National Center for Health Statistics, a subsidiary of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (click here for their link).

The government agency reported that the US birth rate fell to a new all-time low for the second year in a row, to 60.2 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. A birth rate of 125 per 1,000 is necessary for a population to break even. The absolute number of births is the lowest since 1987. In 2017, women had 500,000 fewer babies than in 2007.

These are the lowest number since WWII when 17 million men were away in the military, a crucial part of the equation.

The reason the American birth rate is such an important number is that babies grow up, or at least most of them do. In 20 years, they become consumers, earning wages, buying things, paying taxes, and generally contributing to economic growth.

In 45 years, they do so quite substantially, becoming the major drivers of the economy. When these numbers fall, recessions and bear markets occur with absolute certainty.

You have long heard me talk about the coming “Golden Age” of the 2020s. That’s when a two-decade long demographic tailwind ensues because the number of “peak spenders’ in the economy starts to balloon to generational highs. The last time this happened, during the 1980s and 1990s, stocks rose 20-fold.

Right now, we are just coming out of two decades of demographic headwind when the number of big spenders in the economy reached a low ebb. This was the cause of the Great Recession, the stock market crash and the anemic 2% annual growth since then.

The reasons for the maternity ward slowdown are many. The great recession certainly blew a hole in the family plans of many Millennials. Falling incomes always lead to lower birth rates, with many Millennial couples delaying children by five years or more. Millennial mothers are now having children later than at any time in history.

Burgeoning student debt, which just topped $1.5 trillion, is another. Many prospective mothers would rather get out from under substantial debt before they add to the population.

The rising education of women overall, a global trend, also contributes to the lag on having children. And spouses focused on career building often have a delayed interest in starting families.

Women are also delaying having children to postpone the “pay gaps” that always kicks in after they take maternity leave. Many are pegging income targets before they entertain starting families.

As a result of these trends, one in five children last year were born to women over the age of 35, a new high.

This is how some Latin American countries moved from eight to two-child families in only one generation. The same is about to take place in African countries where standards of living are rising rapidly, thanks to the eradication of several serious diseases.

The sharpest falls in the US have been with minorities. Since 2017, the birthrates for Latinos have dropped by 27% from a very high level, African Americans 11%, whites 5%, and Asian 4%.

Europe has long had the same problem with plunging growth rates but only much worse. Historically, the US has made up for the shortfall with immigration, but that is now falling, thanks the current administration policies. Restricting immigration now is a guaranty of slowing economic growth in the future. It’s just a numbers game.

So watch that growth rate. When it starts to tick up again, it’s time to buy….in about 20 years. I’ll be there to remind you with this newsletter.

As for me, I’ve been doing my part. I have five kids aged 14-34, and my life is only half over. Where did you say they keep the Pampers?

american birthrate

July 24, 2019/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Tags: Top Hits
Share this entry
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on Pinterest
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/john-thomas-04.jpg 400 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-07-24 10:04:382020-04-07 19:49:36They're Not Making Americans Anymore
You might also like
worst trades in history The Eight Worst Trades in History
What the Next Recession Will Look Like
microsoft Trade Alert - (MSFT) - EXPIRATION
The Eight Worst Trades in History
The Five Frontrunners in the Race for a COVID-19 VACCINE
Get Ready to Take a Leap Back into Leaps

Archives

  • 2021 (590)
    • April (110)
    • March (177)
    • February (147)
    • January (156)
  • 2020 (2028)
    • December (169)
    • November (184)
    • October (168)
    • September (176)
    • August (167)
    • July (165)
    • June (178)
    • May (178)
    • April (190)
    • March (177)
    • February (144)
    • January (131)
  • 2019 (1770)
    • December (132)
    • November (128)
    • October (168)
    • September (128)
    • August (173)
    • July (138)
    • June (113)
    • May (158)
    • April (168)
    • March (169)
    • February (141)
    • January (153)
  • 2018 (1798)
    • December (150)
    • November (157)
    • October (194)
    • September (131)
    • August (150)
    • July (133)
    • June (128)
    • May (162)
    • April (185)
    • March (155)
    • February (153)
    • January (100)
  • 2017 (520)
    • December (96)
    • November (114)
    • October (52)
    • September (47)
    • August (63)
    • July (38)
    • June (52)
    • May (58)
  • 2016 (1369)
    • December (116)
    • November (107)
    • October (133)
    • September (110)
    • August (125)
    • July (98)
    • June (111)
    • May (142)
    • April (119)
    • March (112)
    • February (91)
    • January (105)
  • 2015 (1290)
    • December (98)
    • November (94)
    • October (89)
    • September (106)
    • August (105)
    • July (87)
    • June (72)
    • May (101)
    • April (134)
    • March (145)
    • February (122)
    • January (137)
  • 2014 (1490)
    • December (112)
    • November (107)
    • October (151)
    • September (120)
    • August (110)
    • July (123)
    • June (109)
    • May (117)
    • April (129)
    • March (153)
    • February (130)
    • January (129)
  • 2013 (1601)
    • December (125)
    • November (176)
    • October (172)
    • September (162)
    • August (131)
    • July (140)
    • June (114)
    • May (123)
    • April (146)
    • March (123)
    • February (87)
    • January (102)
  • 2012 (781)
    • December (23)
    • November (18)
    • October (24)
    • September (78)
    • August (90)
    • July (67)
    • June (68)
    • May (97)
    • April (88)
    • March (86)
    • February (77)
    • January (65)
  • 2011 (449)
    • December (59)
    • November (73)
    • October (23)
    • September (31)
    • August (44)
    • July (34)
    • June (14)
    • May (43)
    • April (20)
    • March (42)
    • February (29)
    • January (37)
  • 2010 (356)
    • December (32)
    • November (45)
    • October (45)
    • September (51)
    • August (58)
    • July (43)
    • May (6)
    • April (1)
    • March (35)
    • February (17)
    • January (23)
  • 2009 (252)
    • December (20)
    • November (18)
    • October (22)
    • September (20)
    • August (15)
    • July (19)
    • June (20)
    • May (20)
    • April (19)
    • March (22)
    • February (19)
    • January (38)
  • 2008 (420)
    • December (38)
    • November (36)
    • October (46)
    • September (40)
    • August (34)
    • July (38)
    • June (36)
    • May (42)
    • April (42)
    • March (28)
    • February (40)

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2021. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
The Death of the Financial Advisor financial advisors July 24, 2019
Scroll to top

This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.

OKLearn more

Cookie and Privacy Settings



How we use cookies

We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.

Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.

Essential Website Cookies

These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.

Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.

We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.

We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.

Google Analytics Cookies

These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.

If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:

Other external services

We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.

Google Webfont Settings:

Google Map Settings:

Google reCaptcha Settings:

Vimeo and Youtube video embeds:

Accept settingsHide notification only