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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Piggyback Ride to the Future

Biotech Letter

As I walked the sterile, fluorescent-lit hallways of a leading biotechnological institute last summer, I overheard snippets of a conversation that immediately piqued my interest: “human-pig kidney,” “game-changer,” and “investor's goldmine.”

We often think of medical advancements in terms of their immediate patient benefits. Yet, in this chance encounter, the talk of the town was how these breakthroughs could cascade into lucrative opportunities in the stock market.

But how close are we to realizing this future?

Imagine a world where organ shortages, a grim reality for over 106,000 hopeful recipients in the U.S., could become a thing of the past. This isn’t a whimsical daydream but a tangible reality we're inching towards.

The mastermind behind this evolution? Kidneys grown inside pig embryos with a human cell composition ranging between 50% to 70%. This meticulous procedure, entailing 1,820 genetically modified pig embryos transplanted into 13 surrogate mothers, brought forth five specimens that met research criteria.

Switching our perspective, from a purely financial lens, the world of biotechnology is ripe with promise. But with the emergence of this organ transplant technology, investors should sit up and pay attention.

Consider giants like Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Novartis AG (NVS), and Pfizer Inc. (PFE). Their R&D teams are burning the midnight oil to roll out immunosuppressive drugs, pivotal for post-transplant procedures. Influenced by such groundbreaking endeavors, their stock trajectory could be a sight to behold in 2023.

Transitioning to medical equipment, Medtronic plc (MDT), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) aren't just names in the medical devices sphere. They represent the zenith of innovation, manufacturing state-of-the-art equipment integral to organ transplant procedures. If this biotechnological marvel scales, they stand at the precipice of unprecedented growth.

Moving onto healthcare, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) and Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) are the custodians of transplant centers. Their potential upswing is directly proportional to the success of human-pig kidney transplantations. And not to be overlooked, Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX) and LabCorp (LH) are at the heart of organ compatibility diagnostics. As this transplant technology forges ahead, they are poised for a meteoric rise as well.

However, a word of caution is due.

While the financial forecasts appear rosy, any discerning investor is well aware of the need to balance enthusiasm with caution. The stock market's volatile nature, coupled with regulatory shifts and unpredictable research outcomes, can be game-changers. It is extremely crucial to keep your finger on the pulse of the sector and maybe even conduct more in-depth research on the potential of each company before making investment decisions.

Also, beyond finance, it would be remiss not to address the elephant in the room. The melding of human cells into pig embryos has raised eyebrows and ethical concerns. With human cells found in the embryos' brains and spinal cords, it prompts uneasy questions about the potential integration into the pigs' cognitive or reproductive systems. How the scientific community and regulators address these concerns will undoubtedly influence both the pace and direction of research, as well as investor sentiment.

Looking back, my chance encounter in that research institute was an omen of the times to come. On the brink of a scientific revolution, we are witnesses to a watershed moment in healthcare. But for the astute observer, it’s not just about saving lives. It's about understanding how such advancements can recalibrate the entire financial landscape.

To encapsulate the mood, let me leave you with this quote from the infamous Marie Curie: "Nothing in life is to be feared; it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more so that we may fear less.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-14 09:30:262023-09-14 09:48:21A Piggyback Ride to the Future
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 12, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 12, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A STAR PERFORMER IN THE BIOTECH UNIVERSE)
(GILD)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Star Performer in the Biotech Universe

Biotech Letter

In the ever-evolving world of biotechnology, only a few names consistently stand out.

For years, Gilead Sciences (GILD) has stood out as more than just another player; it has consistently taken center stage as a star performer. This distinction is not based on superficial glitz but on Gilead's profound impact on the healthcare industry, particularly within the competitive HIV drug marketplace.

Biktarvy, Descovy for PrEP, and Sunlenca are more than mere pharmaceutical labels. Each represents a breakthrough, a monumental feat in a domain where every scientific discovery is not just valuable but potentially transformative. These aren't just drugs; they're the culmination of relentless research, dedication, and innovation.

Yet, even stars face challenges.

The recent pandemic cast an unexpected shadow over Gilead's illustrious record. The fallout? A notable drop in HIV diagnoses and prescriptions. While many companies might buckle under such pressure, Gilead's history tells a story of resilience and adaptability.

True to form, Gilead rose from the pandemic's challenges, focusing on an area of vast potential: oncology. Though the oncology division currently represents only a fraction of its total revenue, the rate at which it’s growing is astounding. In fact, its current pace outpaces most other sectors in Gilead's portfolio.

But let's step back for a moment and consider the broader picture.

Gilead is more than its product lineup. It's an embodiment of innovation. With a portfolio boasting over 60 active research programs, Gilead is a veritable treasure trove for investors hungry for dividends.

The numbers speak for themselves: a 31.6% dividend growth over the last five years, punctuated by an impressive 3.84% yield. For investors, this isn’t just a statistic; it's a promise of consistent returns.

The story of "Veklury" (remdesivir) is particularly noteworthy, providing a glimpse into Gilead’s financial agility and foresight. Introduced as a beacon of hope in the fight against COVID-19, Veklury saw sales soar to unprecedented heights.

When market murmurs hinted at a potential sales slump for the drug, Gilead pivoted, securing FDA approval to expand Veklury's application to a broader range of liver conditions. Consider the magnitude of this move: over 100 million Americans are grappling with liver diseases.

With this demographic being particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the market potential for Veklury is undeniable. However, the narrative of global health is as fluid as it is unpredictable. While COVID-19 might not dominate every headline as it once did, its presence is still felt worldwide. A recent surge in hospitalizations in the U.S. is a stark reminder of the virus's lingering threat.

Now, if we dive deeper into the financial intricacies of Gilead over the past five years, a pattern of resilience emerges.

The company boasts a 22.9% growth in revenue, accompanied by a 12.8% increase in free cash flow. And while Veklury’s contributions are significant, removing its influence paints a broader picture of a firm that’s consistently navigated both favorable winds and stormy seas.

Their adaptability shines through in the numbers. Gilead's oncology segment saw a remarkable 38% YoY growth in Q2 2023, generating $728 million in revenue. If these figures are any indicator of the future, the oncology division may soon be a powerhouse in Gilead’s financial framework, potentially contributing up to $10 billion.

Pivotal to Gilead’s revenue story are Biktarvy and Descovy. Their H1 2023 sales figures stand at $5.65 billion and $965 million, respectively. Predicting stratospheric growth rates might be ambitious, but data suggests that steady, upward progress isn’t just probable—it's expected.

The stock market is known for its whims, but seasoned analysts believe Gilead might currently be undervalued. The biotech industry is a roller-coaster, full of unexpected turns, but with Gilead at the helm, the ride promises to be exhilarating.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-12 18:00:082023-09-12 18:39:06A Star Performer in the Biotech Universe
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 7, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter

September 7, 2023

Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SUGAR, SPICE, AND EVERYTHING NICE)

(NVO), (LLY), (MRK), (JNJ), (AZN), (LVMH)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Sugar, Spice, and Everything Nice

Biotech Letter

If the weight-loss drug market is a tide, Novo Nordisk (NVO) stands at its crest. As investors, when we seek promising ventures, we look for history, market presence, and future potential–and this Danish pharmaceutical powerhouse seems to tick all these boxes.

Dive into the annals of Novo Nordisk's story, and you'll find a century-old legacy predominantly immersed in diabetes treatment. This enterprise, with Eli Lilly (LLY) and Sanofi (SNY), once commanded an impressive 90% insulin market share.

But things changed when Sanofi made its exit in 2019, setting the stage for Novo Nordisk's next significant act. Though others such as Merck (MRK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AstraZeneca (AZN) are present in the diabetes space, they operate in unique niches, focusing primarily on small molecules.

So, what is Novo Nordisk's contemporary claim to fame? It’s none other than the weight-loss drug, Wegovy.

As of its recent U.K. debut, Wegovy is now associated with the National Health Service. This was a strategic move that saw the company's value soar, comfortably eclipsing the luxury behemoth Louis Vuitton (LVMH).

The numbers speak for themselves: Novo Nordisk's stock surged 40% this year, pushing its market cap to an enviable $428 billion.

If they were based stateside, this positions them as the 14th most valuable entity in the S&P 500.

What's truly jaw-dropping is the scale of Novo Nordisk's success. It achieved European market leadership with Wegovy's debut in just five significant markets: Denmark, Norway, Germany, the U.S., and the U.K. The demand seems to be exploding every time the drug lands in a new market.

Meanwhile, their main competitor, Eli Lilly, isn't actually that far behind. Bolstered by their Mounjaro drug, they've seen a stock uptick of 52% this year.

Novo Nordisk's current revenue is approximately $26 billion, predominantly from its diabetes drugs lineup. However, by 2030, forecasts predict the obesity market could range from $30 billion to even $100 billion.

And only a few major players are in line to capitalize on this. Notably, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are poised to dominate this space, with a combined projected market share of 82%.

Furthermore, whispers in the pharmaceutical sector suggest that Novo's golden molecule, semaglutide, has broader applications. Beyond diabetes and obesity, it might target three substantial markets in the coming decade.

Firstly, the cardiovascular space, valued at $162 billion in 2022, presents significant potential. Early indications reveal that semaglutide might offer protective benefits against cardiovascular threats. If Novo gains the necessary approvals, its market share could rise substantially.

Secondly, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) affects nearly 30 million Americans. Market evaluations for this condition vary, with some projections reaching $62 billion by 2031.

Novo Nordisk is already deep into phase 3 clinical trials, and if semaglutide proves effective here, it would be another feather in the company's cap.

Lastly, the treatment of addiction disorders could be an untapped market for semaglutide. Preliminary research shows promise, but real-world human trials are still in their infancy. If validated, this could open another revenue stream for Novo Nordisk in the years to come.

Overall, Novo Nordisk is more than just a pharmaceutical company; it's a saga of consistent growth, innovation, and potential.

If you had invested in its shares between 2017 and 2019, today's valuation would offer substantial returns.

Admittedly, the current valuation is on the higher side. Still, context matters.

In light of the above, my advice is two-fold. For those eyeing short-term gains, a 'Hold' might be the best strategy for Novo Nordisk. But if you're in it for the long haul, with a decade or more in view, this is a definitive 'Buy.'

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-07 17:00:242023-09-07 18:11:58Sugar, Spice, and Everything Nice
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 31, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 31, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A ‘FRESH FACE’ IN THE DIVIDEND ARISTOCRATS INDEX)
(KVUE), (JNJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-31 16:02:452023-08-31 17:05:30August 31, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A 'Fresh Face' in the Dividend Aristocrats Index

Biotech Letter

The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index has recently added a significant name to its ranks: Kenvue (KVUE).

Though referring to Kenvue as a 'newcomer' might seem paradoxical, given its impressive roster of iconic brands such as Tylenol and Band-Aid. This company has a remarkable 135-year history to its credit.

Brought to the market through a strategic spinout by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kenvue debuted on the NYSE this past May, proudly showcasing a market capitalization nearing $79 billion. This masterstroke funneled a substantial $13.2 billion into JNJ's reservoir, an outcome of both debt offerings and the subsequent IPO.

The move emphasizes the strategic rationale behind the future plans of both companies: prioritizing agility, enhancing flexibility, and ensuring concentrated success.

It's then no coincidence that Kenvue soon found itself part of the portfolio of noteworthy ETFs such as ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL) and FT Cboe Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (KNG). This recognition aligns with JNJ's established reputation as a dividend aristocrat.

A critical insight from S&P Global (SPGI), the guardian of this index, indicates an intriguing approach for the next two years: dividends from both parent JNJ and offspring Kenvue will be combined to determine their collective eligibility for this esteemed group. Post this period, while the specifics of S&P’s plan remain under wraps, indicators point towards Kenvue maintaining its prestigious position, especially if its revenue trajectory remains positive.

Meanwhile, Kenvue announced a promising 20-cent per share dividend as its introduction. Meanwhile, with JNJ's anticipated $1.11 quarterly payout and a bullish forecast for its 2024 free cash flow pegged at an impressive $26 billion, the emphasis on consistent, growing dividends is clear. JNJ's recent dividend of $1.19 per share, reflecting its progressive trend, further cements this.

Moreover, Kenvue's current dividend yield stands at 3.5%, impressively outperforming the average aristocrat yield of 2.5%.

In the valuation spectrum, Kenvue's shares are positioned at 17.9 times the projected 2024 earnings. While some might express skepticism over its valuation due to its newcomer status, Kenvue's robust financials and upward cash flow trajectory suggest a poised path for significant growth in the future.
Looking into its trajectory, it’s safe to say that the stock is reasonably priced. However, a thorough analysis mandates acknowledging potential headwinds.

Consider the challenges posed by an exceptionally strong 2022 cold and flu season. Moreover, we can't ignore the looming legal complications tied to talcum powder disputes.

A sigh of relief, though, is that the brunt of these talc-related litigations rests with JNJ, evident from its near-$9 billion settlement in April. Thus, concerns over Kenvue's liquidity and cash flow might be somewhat overblown.

JNJ's recent financial projections indicate an optimistic 12.5% growth in its 2023 adjusted earnings per share, year-on-year. They've also strategically classified their consumer health segment as "discontinued operations," anticipating a robust $20 billion boost in Q3, courtesy of the spinoff.

Evidently, this stock isn't just turning heads because of its dividend - though that's certainly a feather in its cap.

With a stable and progressively growing income stream, Kenvue stands resilient against economic headwinds and the erratic dance of market volatility. In the vast sea of the consumer healthcare industry, Kenvue is sailing strong. The currents are in its favor: an aging global population and a swelling demand for self-care products are the tailwinds pushing it forward.

To sum it up, Kenvue is presenting an intriguing cocktail of value, consistent income, and potential growth. For those with an eye on both income and value, Kenvue should certainly be on the radar.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-31 16:00:412023-08-31 17:04:56A 'Fresh Face' in the Dividend Aristocrats Index
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 29, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 29, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEIGHTY RETURNS)
(NVO), (LLY), (SNY), (AMGN), (PFE), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-29 16:02:362023-08-29 20:35:49August 29, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Weighty Returns

Biotech Letter

These days, the narrative around transformative weight-loss drugs just got a little juicier. Here's the lowdown: Heart-failure patients are now giving a nod to Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy. But, why?

The intel shows that the overweight community, grappling with heart woes, noticed a stamina uptick and weight drop when on Wegovy. The buzz was so compelling that it got its spotlight moment at the European Society of Cardiology Congress in Amsterdam. Plus, the New England Journal of Medicine gave it some ink.

Dive into the numbers, and you'll find that out of about 530 individuals with hearts not really pulling their weight (pun intended), the Wegovy brigade shed 13% of their body weight. That’s in stark contrast to the 3% that the placebo group managed.

More walking, less heart huffing-puffing - Wegovy users clocked in 17 times more steps on the treadmill and showcased fewer heart hiccups. Oh, and fewer side effects? Check.

Rewinding the tape, GLP-1 drugs initially stepped into the arena as the remedy for Type-2 diabetes. But then, surprise! Novo’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Mounjaro became the talk of the town. Not just because they were treating diabetes, but because those popping them shed an eye-catching 15% to 20% of their body weight. That's blockbuster material right there.

Eventually, Novo bagged the FDA's green light first for weight loss with Wegovy, and its demand skyrocketed so much so that medical maestros started prescribing Ozempic and Mounjaro to folks with weight woes. Now, all eyes are on the FDA's next move concerning Lilly’s weight-loss contender.

Now, here’s the kicker. This isn’t Wegovy’s first rodeo in the spotlight. Earlier this month, eyebrows were raised when it was revealed that these new kids on the block, known as GLP-1 agonists, might be the next superhero squad against a gamut of diseases.

Yet, GLP-1 might not just stop at obesity and heart diseases. It can also combat a spectrum of illnesses, including Alzheimer's. As expected, Novo and Lilly are doubling down on this potential, exploring these drugs' impact on liver and kidney diseases. As the benefits of GLP-1s unfold, insurers will probably be queuing up to offer coverage.

Let’s paint a clearer picture in terms of market potential.

Nearly 42% of U.S. adults grapple with obesity. The World Obesity Atlas dropped a bombshell—by 2035, over 4 billion global citizens might be tipping the scales, adding an astronomical $4 trillion in health costs.

The repercussions? Beyond the obvious heart diseases, strokes, and type 2 diabetes, they are also prone to mental health challenges, like depression and anxiety.

The economic ripples? Staggering. A drug that can be the silver bullet for such a widespread health epidemic could be the next Wall Street darling.

The next 10 years will likely see the GLP-1 agonists market touching an annual $86 billion. Yet, these figures might be leaning heavily on diabetes and off-label prescriptions.

With the World Health Organization cautioning about a billion obese and 2 billion overweight individuals by 2030, it's clear—this market is about to get a whole lot bigger.

With promises like these, it's no shocker that investors are tossing their coins into the ring. Both Novo and Lilly have seen their valuations triple, and Lilly's net worth now towers over its peers at a staggering $500 billion, crowning it the globe's pharmaceutical kingpin.

However, it’s wise to remember that it's one thing to climb the mountain and another to stay on the summit. Even in this early stage, competitors have started to emerge, including Amgen (AMGN), Sanofi (SNY), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Pfizer (PFE).

By 2025, the biopharma giants could potentially unveil their very own GLP-1-based wonder drugs for obesity, chipping away a quarter of Novo and Lilly's market dominance by 2032.

In the ever-evolving theater of biopharma, GLP-1 agonists, led by stalwarts like Wegovy, are emerging as the new front-runners. While the rewards seem tantalizingly vast, savvy investors know the pharmaceutical landscape is punctuated with highs and inevitable lows.

And here's a golden nugget: in the dynamic world of stock trading, every dip is an opportunity disguised as a setback. So, if you're seeking a stock market mantra for this burgeoning sector, remember to buy on the ebb, not the crest. It's in these valleys that fortunes are made, setting the stage for robust returns. Dive in wisely.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-29 16:00:332023-08-29 20:36:32Weighty Returns
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 24, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 24, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FUTUREPROOFING BIOTECH)
(REGN), (SNY), (BAYN), (RHHBY)

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