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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Rarity in A Chaotic Market

Biotech Letter

Infertility is one of the most common health concerns in the United States.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, among heterosexual women between 15 and 49 years old without prior births, about 1 in every 5—or 19%—could not get pregnant after 1 year of trying.

Meanwhile, about 1 in 4, or 26%, of women in this category experience difficulty conceiving or carrying a pregnancy to full term.

The US Census Bureau also disclosed that the average age of women planning to get pregnant has climbed from 27 to 30—the highest ever recorded. Consequently, when some women start trying to have a baby at a later age, they encounter more challenges because of a decline in fertility.

Based on recent CDC data, 12.2% of couples struggle with infertility. Male infertility accounts for 1/3, females for 1/3, and the rest is a combination.

Treatment, although available, is typically costly. Known therapies include surgery, assisted reproductive technology like IVF, and drugs.

Due to the problems linked to affordability, employers have been attempting to cover fertility treatments in their employee health plans. This practice has become more common in recent years as companies strive to focus more on equity and diversity.

Based on a survey by Mercer, 42% of major companies with 20,000 or more workers included IVF treatments and 19% covered egg freezing in their health plans in 2020. This is a notable leap from the 36% and 6% recorded in 2015, respectively.

Needless to say, adding fertility benefits as part of the coverage serves as a tool that enables employers to stand out in a highly competitive labor market.

This is where Progyny (PGNY) comes in.

Progyny is a rarity amid the chaotic market of 2022. That is, it is a growth company that managed to outperform the overall market.

Progyny is a specialized company that offers fertility benefits management services. It is supported by a vast network of fertility experts, with 900 specialists spread across 650 clinics throughout the US.

The company leverages its network of experts and combines their knowledge with a data-driven model to provide a service to employers with employees trying to get pregnant.

Progyny basically gathers the resources available to the clients and providers and makes these materials not only more easily accessible but also more effective.

It has a Smart Cycle program, which enables subscribers or members to customize or modify their treatment plans.

The companies can control the costs given the comprehensive information and availability of experts to consult. In turn, this can offer more attempts to get pregnant without the fear of health plan coverage running out in the middle of treatment.

What is the potential of this business?

Progyny has steadily expanded since its creation in 2016. Its revenue has more than doubled since then, rising from $229.7 million in 2019 to $500.6 million in 2021.

Given its trajectory, the company’s revenue is expected to increase by 47% to 55% by 2022.

Progyny recorded strong growth in the third quarter of 2022. Its sales jumped by 68% to reach $205.4 million, beating analysts’ projections of $194.5 million.

The company also boosted its full-year guidance for 2022 from $755 million to $780 million and continues to add new clients while impressively retaining almost 100% of its existing customers.

The long-term outlook for Progyny is promising as the market value for fertility platforms and services is estimated to grow at a 4.7% compound annual rate until 2030. By then, the market would be worth roughly $48 billion.

After all, more and more individuals are looking into fertility services, which means employers will keep viewing this benefit as a requirement. That means there wouldn’t be any concerns regarding any short-term drop-off in the demand for Progyny’s services.

This should indicate consistent, if not continuously growing, revenue.

With a market capitalization of a little above $4 billion, Progyny is a promising long-term investment as it is a pioneer in a lucrative market that’s just begging to be disrupted.

 

progyny

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-10 15:00:352022-12-02 02:32:29A Rarity in A Chaotic Market
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 8, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 8, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A GROWTH STOCK POISED TO BREAK RECORDS)
(LLY), (JNJ), (NVDA), (MA), (PG), (NVO), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-08 16:02:592022-11-08 19:24:33November 8, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Growth Stock Poised Break Records

Biotech Letter

The stock market has been down in the past couple of months, and the outlook still does not look all that good, considering that the issues with inflation and economic crises are showing no signs of ending anytime soon.

However, as Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger noted, long-term investors should not be too anxious over “when” the markets will recover.

Instead, he advised “to think about ‘what’ will happen versus ‘when’” as a far more efficient way to behave in these challenging times.

Bearing that advice in mind, a particular biotechnology and healthcare stock stands out and is worth considering given its promising future: Eli Lilly (LLY).

Eli Lilly has grown at a fast pace and is considered among the most prominent pharmaceutical businesses in the world, ranking second behind Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

At the moment, its market capitalization is at about $340 billion, making Eli Lilly more valuable than juggernaut Nvidia (NVDA) and other big names like Mastercard (MA) and Procter & Gamble (PG).

The most promising drug in Eli Lilly’s pipeline right now is Mounjaro, earlier known as tirzepatide, which recently received the green light from the Food and Drug Administration.

This once-a-week injection is an approved therapy that targets Type 2 diabetes. On top of that, Mounjaro can also be used as a potential weight loss drug.

While there are already existing diabetes drugs that double as weight loss treatments, mainly from Novo Nordisk (NVO), what makes Mounjaro distinct is the fact that it’s the first-ever unimolecular dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist. In layman’s terms, this treatment could function in the same way as two completely different hormones that serve to control blood sugar levels.

Now, the question is: How significant an impact is Mounjaro on Eli Lilly?

Based on data from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, about 2 in every 5 adults are classified as obese, while 1 in 11 adults suffer from severe obesity.

That’s a substantial market. More than that, the consequences of obesity are said to have ripple effects throughout the entire healthcare industry.

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate the yearly medical costs in the United States due to obesity to be roughly $173 billion in 2019.

Following its approval, Mounjaro raked in $16 million in sales. Given its unique mechanism and the massive market it can target, Mounjaro is estimated to rake in $25 billion in peak revenue annually.

Moreover, this treatment could not only be a game changer for the company but also the entire healthcare community.

For context, Eli Lilly’s total revenue in 2021 from all its products combined was $28 billion. Needless to say, Mounjaro would put the company on track for some serious growth.

Looking at this weight loss and diabetes drug's trajectory and potential, Mounjaro can benefit Eli Lilly in the same way AbbVie (ABBV) maximized Humira. For years, Humira was hailed as the top-selling drug in the world.

While it’s set to lose its patent protection by 2023, there’s no doubt that this anti-inflammatory drug boosted the share price and bottom line of AbbVie.

Clearly, this is a business poised to become even more valuable soon. This means its current share price could be considered a bargain in the next few years.

How long it would take for Eli Lilly to make money off its pipeline remains a question mark. However, concentrating on “what” is most likely about to happen instead of “when” makes it easy to make a case for Eli Lilly being an excellent growth investment.

 

eli lilly mounjaro

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-08 16:00:462022-12-02 02:38:12A Growth Stock Poised Break Records
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 3, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 3, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(INVEST LIKE IT’S 2009)
(VRTX), (CRSP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-03 14:02:432022-11-03 16:05:34November 3, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Invest Like It's 2009

Biotech Letter

Some investors look at a glass of water as half-empty, while hardcore pessimists believe that the glass is drizzled with arsenic. I’m neither.

You can count me as one who constantly looks at the glass of water as half-full.

Admittedly, it has been challenging to continue being optimistic, given the current conditions of the stock market. Some stocks in my portfolio have suffered a beating, too. Nevertheless, I’m still optimistic about the next 10 or 15 years.

Why? Because this horrible bear market has presented us with one of the most exciting and promising investment opportunities in over a decade.

If you don’t believe me, think back to 2009. Unquestionably, that was an incredible year to buy stocks. The S&P 500 index skyrocketed over 320% from January 2009 to today. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index soared 830%.

However, there's a crucial detail: this realization comes in retrospect. Remember, around early 2009, the Great Recession was still well underway. It didn’t feel like any investment was a promising opportunity at that time.

Stocks only showed signs of bottoming out at the very end of the first quarter of that year, and no one could confidently say when the bear market would end.

Fast forward to 2022. While there’s still no official word on whether we are in a recession, analysts have insisted that we’re well on our way to another one soon.

Although the present situation is obviously distinct from what happened in 2009 because of the COVID-induced recession and the continuation of the 2020 bear market, I fully believe that investors will look back to this period and realize that it’s the prime time to buy stocks.

So, how can investors make the most of this buying opportunity?

First, don’t focus on waiting for the market to bottom. A better way to deal with the situation is to determine the stocks of companies with solid core businesses that currently trade reasonably priced (or if you can find them, bargain) valuations.

Second, choose stocks that you can buy incrementally. It’s definitely possible that the market will fall even more. If that happens, investing gradually or in stages rather than dropping all your money into stocks at a single time could be a failsafe strategy.

Third, be patient. This tip cannot be highlighted enough. It’s critical to provide stocks with sufficient time to run. Investors who bought stocks early in 2009 and sold them by 2010 or 2011 missed out on most of the best and longest bull run in history.

The good news is that many excellent stocks meet the criteria mentioned above.

A particular name stands out in the biotechnology and healthcare industry: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Unlike other businesses, Vertex has been trouncing the broader market this year, climbing by over 35% year to date. More importantly, the company’s pipeline of candidates looks even brighter.

One of the reasons this biotechnology giant is performing well is its monopoly of the cystic fibrosis (CF) market. In the third quarter of 2022, Vertex’s CF programs generated $2.33 billion in sales and $931 million in profits.

It doesn’t end there, as Vertex has plans to maximize its monopoly of the CF market.

More therapies are under development to target more patients in this sector, which means Vertex would eventually become its own biggest rival. Needless to say, this will make its hold in the CF market much stronger.

In terms of adding more monopoly money to its portfolio, Vertex has been working on a treatment for APOL1-mediated kidney disorder. To date, there remains no therapy for this condition.

On top of these, Vertex has been collaborating with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to develop treatments for two rare blood disorders. Given the timeline released by both companies, these candidates should be ready for regulatory approval by December 2022 or early 2023.

Another promising candidate in its pipeline is the non-opioid pain treatment VX-548 for moderate to severe acute pain. Ultimately, Vertex’s goal is to offer this alternative to end the opioid epidemic.

Meanwhile, its acquisition of Viacyte has catapulted Vertex into one of the Type 1 diabetes market leaders.

Overall, Vertex’s forward earnings multiple of 20 may not look all that attractive, but the biotech’s growth prospects are up-and-coming. Hence, I view this stock as a bargain at the moment.

Again, Vertex is only one of the examples of companies that could be an excellent investment in this bear market. The healthcare and biotechnology sector has more great stocks to buy in this crisis. Indeed, the glass of water is most definitely half-full.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-03 14:00:422022-11-09 20:48:48Invest Like It's 2009
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 1, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 1, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BARGAIN DEAL FOR A QUALITY STOCK)
(ABBV), (ABT), (RGNX), (JNJ), (MRK), (GILD), (AMGN), (LLY), (BMY), (PFE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-01 11:02:192022-11-01 11:14:26November 1, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bargain Deal For A Quality Stock

Biotech Letter

Uncertainty. That’s the prevalent sentiment in the investment community these days.

Investors have been hesitant to buy stocks because they believe the bear market isn’t over yet.

Moreover, investors are anxious over the possibility that the stocks will keep falling as issues like higher inflation continue to hound the market.

However, it’s critical to remember that although today’s situation is challenging, it’s only temporary. This means that businesses with solid track records and promising prospects still make excellent buys.

One of the companies outperforming the market this year but which has fallen out of investors’ favor recently, is AbbVie (ABBV).

AbbVie stock has been declining in value lately following an underwhelming third-quarter earnings report. On top of that, the looming patent expiration of its top-selling drug Humira remains a significant concern among investors.

While the Humira situation is clearly not good news for the company, the reality is that AbbVie has impressively preserved the medication’s exclusivity for almost a decade longer than initially expected. Plus, the company has been boosting Humira pricing every year to cope with the declining revenues in the EU, where it already lost patent protection in 2018.

Hence, it’s acceptable for Humira’s chapter in AbbVie’s story to end. After all, the drug has given the company so much. It has been primarily responsible for the more than 325% climb in the company’s share price since 2012 when AbbVie was spun out of Abbott Laboratories (ABT).

Nonetheless, Humira’s impending patent loss doesn’t mean that AbbVie will simply abandon its roots.

The company has since developed potential successors of Humira, namely, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

So far, the two auto-immune drugs have delivered promising results and are on track to keep the company in tip-top shape in its post-Humira era.

These newer immunology drugs are showing impressive growth potential, with Rinvoq recording a 56% increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2022 and Skyrizi revenue soaring by 85%.

Both are also on track to beat Humira’s peak sales, with joint peak sales from Skyrizi and Rinvoq initially estimated to reach roughly $15 billion.

However, recent revenue reports show that the two could surpass the estimate and completely eclipse Humira’s more than $20 billion annual return.

Obviously, AbbVie would require more than its immunology segment if it plans to sustain a good top and bottom-line growth trajectory.

Other than the more than 10 neuroscience, hematology, immunology, and oncology candidates in its pipeline, which are projected to be ready for market launches in the three to five years, AbbVie has been diving into the aesthetics and eye care markets.

Its eye care program, specifically RGX-314, which is currently being developed in partnership with Regenxbio (RGNX), is an interesting wildcard. For context, the eye care segments for wet and dry advanced macular degeneration are roughly worth over $10 billion to $20 billion annually.

With its Humira chapter closing, AbbVie could be ushering in a new era where products from its Allergan acquisition take the lead.

For example, its Botox franchise consistently delivers impressive results. Even its Botox for migraine line has been recording double-digit revenue growth in the third quarter, indicating gains in AbbVie’s neuroscience segment.

As for the aesthetic indications of Botox, this particular portfolio could be a key driver in the company’s future growth.

Aside from Botox, AbbVie also gained access to the widely used dermal filler Juvederm. With the facial aesthetics industry pegged to experience a compound annual growth rate yearly at 14%, the market is estimated to hit $15.2 billion by 2028.

This trend of AbbVie dominating the market is likely to continue as the company is confident that competitors would be unable to develop biosimilars of Botox. That means its Botox line could keep adding to its top-line growth for an extended period.

Overall, AbbVie is a solid bet among the “Big 8” in the pharmaceutical world, which includes Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).

Moreover, this is an excellent time to hunt for deals as several quality stocks continue to decline, affected negatively partly by the momentum of the broader market. Among stocks to consider, AbbVie should be at the top of your list.

 

abbvie humira

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-01 11:00:162022-11-02 04:35:58Bargain Deal For A Quality Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 27, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 27, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A HIDDEN TREASURE IN THESE TURBULENT TIMES)
(BMY), (AMGN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-27 17:02:002022-10-27 17:23:22October 27, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Hidden Treasure In These Turbulent Times

Biotech Letter

Biotechnology and healthcare companies are not exactly the thrilling investments that tech stocks or other growth-centered businesses tend to be described as.

Nonetheless, one of the reasons I find this sector attractive is that the companies can offer steady growth in extensively diverse markets.

From biopharmaceutical treatments to household items, the products these businesses develop are the kinds people tend to need and use regularly constantly.

While the biotechnology and healthcare sector doesn’t always beat the general market, the combo of steady growth, resilient returns, and reliable dividends generally make it an incredibly attractive option for investors.

Among the companies in this segment, one of the names you can buy and hold in the long run is Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).

BMY is hailed as the seventh-biggest biopharmaceutical company across the globe in terms of sales. In 2021, the business recorded $46.4 billion in total revenue, which was up by 9% from 2020.

More than half of BMY’s revenue last year was generated from sales of three of its best-selling treatments: multiple myeloma drug Revlimid, Eliquis, and cancer treatment Opdivo.

The full-year revenue for all three drugs jumped that year, with Revlimid climbing by 6% to reach $12.8 billion, blood thinning medication Eliquis rising by 17% to hit $10.8 billion, and Opdivo increasing by 8% to record $7.5 billion.

Despite the impressive performance of these top-selling products, BMY has been diversifying its portfolio to cover a vast lineup of candidates in the fields of immunology, hematology, and, of course, oncology.

The healthcare giant has also grown, in part, through acquisitions, and part of its 2021 revenue of $46 billion, which was twice more than its 2018 revenue of $23 billion, came from these efforts. Moreover, BMY has reported a free cash flow of roughly $13 billion for two consecutive years.

In 2022, BMY reported a lackluster third-quarter performance. While the company’s revenue slid by 3% to $11.2 billion, the stock still climbed 2.31%.

This could be attributed to the fact that BMY managed to beat expectations as analysts predicted a more significant drop due to foreign exchange impacts.

Aside from these, Revlimid has been dealing with increased competition worldwide in the past months. Specifically, this bone marrow cancer drug has been facing “generic erosion” thanks to the emergence of cheaper alternatives in the market.
Picking up the slack from Revlimid is Eliquis, which has become the company’s top performer in terms of revenue and projected growth. Sales for this drug rose by 10% in the third quarter to reach $2.66 billion.

Meanwhile, sales of BMY’s newly launched products jumped 61% to record $553 million.

Future growth is anticipated to be led by Sotyktu, an oral drug for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis that recently gained FDA approval.

In the US alone, roughly 7.5 million individuals suffer from psoriasis. This is a promising market for BMY, which has been aggressively searching for products to rejuvenate its portfolio.

Since it was only recently approved, Sotyktu’s contribution to BMY’s revenue has yet to be proven. However, the drug recorded better results than Amgen’s (AMGN) blockbuster drug Otezla, which raked in $2.25 billion in sales in 2021.

Given the released data, target market, and more promising results from Sotyktu, BMY’s drug is estimated to reach peak sales at $4.2 billion by 2028.

Overall, BMY is an excellent bet during these turbulent times. In the past 10 years, the company has generated total returns, including dividends, of 190%.

This isn’t far from the 223% returns recorded by the S&P 500. Moreover, if BMY sustains its recent performance, then it’s only a matter of time before it successfully shrinks that gap. I suggest that long-term investors buy the dip.

 

bmy

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-27 17:00:562022-11-30 14:27:06A Hidden Treasure In These Turbulent Times
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 25, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 25, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A FAIL-SAFE HEALTHCARE STOCK)
(JNJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-10-25 16:02:242022-10-25 17:14:30October 25, 2022
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