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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Is Amgen the New Champion in the Biotech World

Biotech Letter

Amgen (AMGN) grabbed headlines in August when it became the first biotechnology stock listed in the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average, offering mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that follow the index more access to the company’s shares.

With its share price worth $243.21, Amgen has been hailed responsible for roughly 1,600.20 Dow points – roughly 5.8% of its total.

Does this make Amgen the new champion of the biotechnology sector?

Although it has not explicitly declared that it is developing drugs mainly for older adults, Amgen’s pipeline notably focuses on the fast-rising senior population across the globe.

This is quite strategic considering that the world population of seniors is projected to double from the current number to reach more than 2 billion by 2050.

A noteworthy strategy it employed to expand its market share is cutting the prices of some of its most popular products.

For example, Amgen lowered the price of its heart disease treatment Repatha by as much as 60% in 2018. Since the drug has become one of the more affordable options in the market, making it more accessible to more users.

This led to a 20% rise in sales revenue by 2019, with Repatha expected to rake in a higher number in 2020 – a highly probable expectation considering the 32% climb it recorded in its second quarter earnings report this year. So far, Repatha has generated $200 million in sales in the second quarter.

Another notable drug that recorded a climb in sales is Evenity, which targets postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

Evenity generated an impressive increase of $101 million compared to the $28 million it earned in the same period in 2019.

Despite its $142.08 billion market capitalization, Amgen is not immune to the effects of the pandemic.

For one, sales of arthritis drug Enbrel fell by 9% year over year to record only $1.2 billion while cancer therapy Neulasta showed a 28% decline to $593 million.

The drop in their performance was attributed to pricing pressure and biosimilar competition.

In addressing the issue, Amgen also ventured in creating a competitive and lucrative biosimilar portfolio.

So far, its biosimilar version of AbbVie’s (ABBV) best selling drug arthritis drug Humira has managed to rake in over $200 million in sales in 2019.

Two more oncology biosimilars, MVASI and KANJINTI, which were only launched in the US last year, generated $588 million in sales.

This year, Amgen will launch another potential biosimilar blockbuster called AVSOLA. This would be in direct competition with Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) antitumor treatment Revicade.

Outside these biosimilars, Amgen has over 50 clinical trials queued, which include more than 20 Phase 3 studies. Ultimately, the company’s goal is to displace all the deadweights in its current portfolio.

One of the most exciting products in Amgen’s pipeline right now is its heart failure drug Omecamtiv Mecarbil, which recently completed Phase 3 clinical trials.

With cardiovascular diseases identified as one of the leading causes of death worldwide, the success of Omecamtiv Mecarbil would translate into a strong foothold for Amgen in this huge market and a key growth driver in the long run.

Another blockbuster in Amgen’s portfolio is Otezla, which it acquired from its $13.4 billion deal with Celgene prior to its merger with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) in 2019.

Although Otezla has already been marketed as an adult arthritis and psoriasis treatment, Amgen has been working on expanding its indication to include Behcet's disease, pediatric psoriasis, and pediatric arthritis.

Even without the expanded indications, Otezla has been a hot seller for Amgen.

In fact, the pandemic did not stop it from reaching a 14% year over year revenue growth every quarter, with its second quarter earnings reaching $561 million.

Other than the expanded use to cover more age ranges in the arthritis and psoriasis sector, Amgen is also studying whether Otezla can be used as a COVID-19 treatment.

If these studies prove to be successful, then Amgen will easily make up the price of the Otezla purchase quicker than anticipated.

More importantly, it would be able to add another massive moneymaker in its already formidable anti-inflammation program. By the end of 2021, Amgen’s revenues would be considerably bigger.

Amgen’s second quarter earnings reports showed a respectable 6% rise in its year over year revenue, with the company generating $6.2 billion despite the ongoing health and financial crises.

Beyond its growth in the US market, Amgen has been busy with international expansion. To date, the company has established a key partnership with China’s BeiGene (BGNE).

It further strengthened its presence in Asia thanks to its acquisition of Japan’s Astellas Pharma earlier this year.

These moves are promising since China and Japan are the second and third biggest pharmaceutical markets in the world, and both countries are showing strong growth in their senior populations.

Needless to say, these partnerships would put Amgen in a strategic position to capture a share of that growth.

Investing in healthcare and biotechnology stocks has always been one of my go-to advice to people.

National healthcare spending is expected to increase at an average rate of 5.5% annually until 2027.

By then, the cost would reach a whopping $6 trillion, resulting in an estimated $1 in every $5 of the GDP getting allocated to healthcare spending within this decade.

Amgen is a blue chip biotechnology stock that has a presence in over 100 countries and develops groundbreaking treatments that can help people across the globe.

As a leading company in the healthcare and biotechnology industry, Amgen holds a strong position to leverage this growth to its advantage.

While the 2.48% trailing annual dividend yield is pretty average, Amgen also prides itself of consistently boosting its dividend every year since 2011.

It also engages in opportunistic share buybacks, so its investors have more ways to get rewarded.

Since Amgen stock shares are not exactly cheap right now, income-oriented investors should be on the lookout for a market crash and seize the opportunity to scoop up shares of this valuable biotechnology giant.

amgen biotechnology stock

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-10-01 11:00:372020-10-06 14:08:40Is Amgen the New Champion in the Biotech World
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 29, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 29, 2020
Fiat Lux

(WHY THE PANDEMIC ISN’T STOPPING ELI LILLY’S WINNING STREAK)
(LLY), (PFE), (MRNA), (AZN), (GILD), (INCY), (REGN), (NVO), (BIIB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-29 12:02:002020-09-29 13:23:32September 29, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why the Pandemic Isn't Stopping Eli Lilly's Winning Streak

Biotech Letter

Vaccine developers have taken center stage on Wall Street since the pandemic started, with companies like Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and AstraZeneca (AZN) enjoying soaring share prices for months now.

One of the primary reasons for this popularity is the US government’s Operation Warp Speed, which poured $11 billion into its chosen COVID-19 vaccine programs.

Realistically, the cold, hard truth is that a COVID-19 vaccine will not be the panacea for this deadly virus.

While the vaccine developers are rushing to complete their clinical trials, more people continue to die from COVID-19.

With almost a million deaths and over 30 million cases recorded to date, the need for treatments is more pressing than ever.

Among the companies working on COVID-19 treatments, one name has been quietly making headway: Eli Lilly (LLY).

So far, the company has two potential treatments that can cure COVID-19 patients.

One is its rheumatoid arthritis drug Olumiant, which the company developed with biotechnology firm Incyte (INCY).

Results showed that the treatment can lessen the days patients stay in hospitals when combined with Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdesivir. Not only that, the combination also reduced the severity of the disease and allowed for less-intensive hospital care.

Once all the results have been tested and validated, Eli Lilly will seek an emergency authorization from the FDA.

Aside from Eli Lilly and Gilead Sciences, Pfizer is also working on a potential COVID-19 treatment. Although not much is known about the New York biopharmaceutical giant’s version of the antiviral drug, the target approval date is set in the second half of 2021.

Riding on the momentum of its successful Olumiant trials, Eli Lilly is working to extend its winning streak by being one of the first to develop a preventive COVID-19 treatment specifically designed for elderly patients.

Eli Lilly is developing the potent monoclonal antibody treatment, called LY-CoV555, with AbCellera. The Phase 3 trials conducted in nursing homes were launched in August and the company expects the results to be available by March 2021.

While using monoclonal antibody treatment is groundbreaking technology, Eli Lilly is not alone in the field.

The company faces considerable competition from other healthcare giants like AstraZeneca and Regeneron (REGN).

Nonetheless, the antibody market is massive enough for sharing, with this market estimated to rake in as much as $10 billion annually.

Conservatively speaking and assuming that Eli Lilly fails to attract major market share, there’s still a decent chance that the sales of LY-CoV555 can go beyond $1 billion every year starting 2022.

 Outside its COVID-19 programs, Eli Lilly is a dominant player in the diabetes market, with Trulicity leading the charge along with up and coming products like Humalog, Jardiance, Basaglar, and Humulin.

The company is expected to attract at least 13.8% of the market share this year, ranking second only to Novo Nordisk (NVO) and its 30.7% hold of the sector.

In the second quarter earnings report this year, Trulicity sales showed a 20% year-over-year jump to reach $1.2 billion in that period.

This is an impressive performance as investors expect the diabetes drug to surpass its 2019 sales of $4.1 billion.

Although Trulicity delivers substantial sales, it is remarkable that Eli Lilly is not overly reliant on the drug.

In fact, the diabetes drug’s total revenue only accounts for less than one-fifth of the company’s overall sales.

To boost its presence in the diabetes market, Eli Lilly added another potential blockbuster in its pipeline: Tirzepatide.

This drug is projected to become “best-in-class for lowering glucose, weight loss, and cardiovascular risk.”

To date, Tirzepatide is undergoing Phase 3 trials to test it on diabetes, obesity, and heart disease. It is also queued in Phase 2 trials for the liver disease NASH.

The potential of Tirzepatide is hinged not only in being a diabetes drug but more importantly, as an obesity drug.

If successful, Tirzepatide is estimated to hit peak sales of $10 billion annually, with the number trailing by 2025 to record $3.7 billion.

Another potential moneymaker for Eli Lilly is Verzenio, which showed an impressive 56% increase in sales in the second quarter to contribute $208.6 million.

In a bid to expand its oncology pipeline, Eli Lilly is looking into adding a new indication for Verzenio as well.

The company recently released the promising results for the oral tablet as an early-stage breast cancer treatment.

If successful, this drug will be in direct competition against an industry leader, Pfizer’s Ibrance.

In terms of its neurology pipeline, Eli Lilly has also been active in developing its own Alzheimer’s program.

While most of the treatments are still in the early stages, the success of Biogen’s (BIIB) Aducanumab could provide a much-needed boost for Eli Lilly’s own Alzheimer’s candidates.

Eli Lilly offers an extensive product line that goes beyond its COVID-19 programs, underscoring the company’s resilience even during the pandemic.

After dominating in the diabetes sector, the company focused its efforts on becoming one of the top players in the oncology, immunology, and neurology fields.

Consequently, Eli Lilly has been consistent in posting first-rate earnings and revenue growth since 2017.

Eli Lilly markets treatments for life-threatening and chronic conditions, with the company owning the rights to products with consistently growing sales. It also has the ability to continuously boost its revenue stream thanks to its rich pipeline and strategic collaborations.

The COVID-19 pandemic may have negatively affected sectors of Eli Lilly’s business this year, but the company holds the qualities that make it a solid long-term investment.

 

Eli lilly

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-29 12:00:592020-09-30 16:23:33Why the Pandemic Isn't Stopping Eli Lilly's Winning Streak
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 24, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 24, 2020
Fiat Lux

(PLAY YOUR CARDS RIGHT WITH MODERNA)
(MRNA), (PFE), (AZN), (BNTX), (JNJ), (MRK), (VRTX), (CRSP)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-24 09:32:492020-09-24 10:44:06September 24, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Play Your Cards Right With Moderna

Biotech Letter

The COVID-19 race is entering the home stretch, and it could only be a matter weeks before the world finds out which among the leading vaccine candidates will work.

For months, Moderna (MRNA) has been dubbed as the leader of the pack, with the company’s shares reaping the rewards thanks to this year’s wild growth and promising clinical results.

Now, it looks like Moderna is on the verge of officially claiming the crown as promising reports surfaced from its late-stage clinical trials.

If the Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, called mRNA-1273, is proven to be at least 70% effective, the company will immediately ask for an emergency authorization to use it on high-risk patients.

Like Pfizer (PFE), Moderna is also expecting results to come as early as October. With potential delays in the trials, the company thinks the data would be released by November at the latest.

Moderna is also looking into building footprints outside the United States.

Part of its efforts to expand its potential market reach for mRNA-1273, Moderna opened a commercial hub – its first ever – in Switzerland, where it has already been collaborating with Swiss drug manufacturer Lonza (SWX: LONN).

This is a good move for Moderna.

After all, Europe presents a substantial market for the COVID-19 vaccine. For context, the European Union has over 446 million people while the US only has 328 million.

To date, Moderna has agreed to supply 100 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine to the US government for up to $1.525 billion. The contract also provides for an optional additional 400 million doses, depending on mRNA-1273’s performance in the trials.

Meanwhile, Moderna already secured a deal with the Swiss federal government to deliver 4.5 million of mRNA-1273.

While it has yet to announce a similar deal with the rest of the EU, the company is reported to be in the advanced stages of its negotiations with other member countries, where it is estimated to provide an additional 160 million doses.

Overall, the global manufacturing projection for Moderna falls somewhere between 500 million and 1 billion doses starting in 2021.

Looking at the agreements, we can conservatively say that mRNA-1273 could rake in $12.4 billion in sales for Moderna by 2022.

Despite the current payment plans implying that each dose of Moderna’s vaccine would only cost $15.25, the company already received government funding of roughly $2.5 billion.

Taking those expenses into account, the actual value would be somewhere between $25 and $30 per dose.

In comparison, Pfizer’s vaccine candidate with BioNTech (BNTX) is estimated to cost less than $19.50 per dose while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced that it will offer its vaccine at $10 per dose.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca’s (AZN) candidate with Oxford University is expected to be even cheaper at $2.96 to $4 per dose.

With its COVID-19 vaccine rivals offering decidedly cheaper options, Moderna will need to leverage its first-mover advantage if it hopes to fight for a decent market share.

Outside COVID-19 vaccine efforts, Moderna has a rich pipeline, with 23 candidates distributed over 22 programs and 6 modalities.

Aside from the urgent need to offer a vaccine to the world, there is another reason why Moderna is focusing on the COVID-19 program right now.

If proven successful, the program can be used to validate another experimental vaccine, called mRNA-1647, which targets congenital cytomegalovirus infection.

Although CMV is identified as one of the leading causes of birth defects in the US, there remains no approved vaccine for it.

However, there is a catch.

Moderna will not be able to reap the full benefits of the CMV vaccine.

In fact, it will only be able to receive 50% of its profits if it becomes successful since mRNA-4157 is being developed alongside Merck (MRK).

The idea is for the drug to boost the oncology sector of Merck, with the goal of finding another blockbuster like the melanoma drug Keytruda.

As impressive as the CMV vaccine is as a product to launch in the market, there is a huge possibility that Moderna would not necessarily benefit from a large windfall because of it.

Aside from Merck, Moderna is also working with another biopharmaceutical giant and competitor in the COVID-19 vaccine race: Vertex (VRTX).

Moderna and the Massachusetts-based giant are collaborating to develop a treatment for cystic fibrosis, a niche that Vertex has dominated for years.

This is actually their second collaboration, but this project seems a tad more ambitious than the earlier one: Moderna and Vertex are working to develop a one-time treatment for cystic fibrosis using mRNA technology.

Basically, the two companies want to use gene-editing techniques to modify a patient’s DNA and correct the cells that cause cystic fibrosis.

The collaboration will span 3 years, with Vertex paying Moderna $75 million upfront. The smaller biotechnology company is also eligible for an additional $380 million in milestone payments plus royalties.

Notably, this is not the first cystic fibrosis treatment collaboration that Vertex formed with gene-editing companies.

Earlier this year, the company also secured a license option with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to work on practically the same thing.

Clearly, Vertex is hedging its bets on two potential options with this second partnership with Moderna.

Thanks to its trailblazing COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Moderna has become one of the most sought-after stocks of 2020, with its year-to-date growth reaching a stunning 360% last July.

Despite the temptation to bet big on Moderna stocks, bear in mind that early leaders like this biotechnology company will be facing incredible pressure from pharmaceutical titans like Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and AstraZeneca – all of which have the capacity to meet the manufacturing and distribution demands across the globe.

At best, a company with Moderna’s size would probably receive a slice of the market in the early days.

At worst, it might struggle to keep a foothold as stronger and larger competitors flood the market with cheaper but equally effective alternatives.

Nonetheless, this is not to say that you should completely avoid smaller biotechnology companies just because they are too small to compete with the larger fish.

Rather, I think it would simply be prudent to invest based on each player’s proven ability and outlined plans to meet the demand at a mass scale.

Doing so would guarantee that you not only limit your risks but also allow you to reap the rewards of successful vaccine deployment. If you play your cards right, then you might even get a handful of different COVID-19 vaccine winners in your back pocket.

moderna

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-24 09:30:482020-12-18 00:27:18Play Your Cards Right With Moderna
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 22, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 22, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY MERCK IS UNDER-APPRECIATED IN THE COVID-19 RACE)
(MRK), (PFE), (MRNA), (RHHBY), (REGN), (BMY), (GILD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-22 11:02:382020-09-22 14:04:52September 22, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Merck is Underappreciated in the COVID-19 Race?

Biotech Letter

The excitement over the COVID-19 vaccine candidates has boosted the shares of the most widely reported companies like Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). Meanwhile, other developers have not received the same love from investors.

However, it looks like another COVID-19 vaccine player will be joining Pfizer and Moderna under the spotlight: Merck (MRK). 

Merck recently announced that it is now ready to test its vaccine on humans. The trials will be conducted in Germany, and the company has been scouring government databases for viable volunteers.

Unlike Pfizer and Moderna, which are utilizing a novel technology that will need two vaccine doses to be fully effective, Merck is working on two different COVID-19 vaccine candidates designed to work with only a single dose.

This could offer Merck a clear advantage over its competitors.

Also, one of Merck’s candidates could be taken in oral form. This is another significant advantage since it would make the vaccine easier and more convenient to administer.

Merck’s vaccine candidates contain a destabilized version of the same virus that causes measles. This virus is then used to deliver the coronavirus’ spike protein to the patient’s immune system, which would trigger an immune response.

The goal is not only to create a vaccine that would offer protection using a single dose, but also utilizing an existing and reliable technology that can be readily scaled up for mass production.

Since we need to immunize roughly 7 billion across the globe, Merck’s plan to manufacture a single-dose vaccine would be more convenient instead of using multiple doses.

Overall, the COVID-19 vaccine market could reach $50 billion in revenue by 2030.

Apart from its vaccine candidate, Merck is also looking into an antiviral treatment for COVID-19 patients

If successful, this product would be competing against Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdesivir. Just like one of its vaccines, Merck is also developing a treatment in oral form instead of a hospital infusion.

Merck’s Remdesivir alternative can reduce the severity of the COVID-19 by interrupting the virus’s capacity to replicate.

Unlike Gilead’s drug, which can only be used in severe cases, Merck’s candidate can be prescribed immediately after a patient is diagnosed with the disease.

This COVID-19 cure is set to begin its Phase 3 trial this September, with Merck is confident that it can manufacture millions of doses before 2020 ends.

Experts dubbed this drug as an “underappreciated COVID-19 treatment,” which is estimated to reach blockbuster status.

Aside from not getting enough credit for its COVID-19 efforts, Merck is also not receiving enough attention for its pipeline.

So far, the company holds the leading drug that boosts the immune system to fight off cancer: Keytruda. It also has one of the leading vaccine franchises in the world.

Keytruda can easily generate $14.5 billion in sales in 2020 alone, which represents a 30% jump from its 2019 performance. More importantly, the drug can reach $22 billion by 2025.

However, investors are worried over Merck’s dependence on the drug, which comprises 30% of its revenue. In fact, Wall Street keeps zeroing in on the 2028 patent expiration of Keytruda.

At the moment, Keytruda faces competitors like Roche Holding (RHHBY), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).

However, Merck is not the type to put all its eggs in a single basket.

The company is developing new products that can generate an additional $13 billion to $18 billion in sales annually.

Among these treatments is another potential immuno-oncology antibody, which has been sent to clinical trials this year. Merck also has a long-term HIV treatment queued for clinical studies.

One exciting drug candidate is ARQ531, which is a potential cancer therapy. This projected blockbuster was part of Merck’s $2.7 billion acquisition of ArQule in January.

Other than this acquisition, Merck also obtained the rights to several cancer treatments, which are hailed to be more effective than the conventional chemotherapy, thanks to its acquisitions of Astex Pharmaceuticals and Taiho Pharmaceuticals.

In terms of its vaccine franchise, this arm of the business is projected to generate $9 billion in annual sales in 2021, with the revenue steadily rising to $100 billion in the next several years.

In particular, Merck is looking into developing further its cervical cancer vaccine Gardasil. So far, this vaccine is estimated to generate roughly $3.9 billion in sales in 2020 and reach $5.5 in 2023.

The focus on boosting its vaccine franchise is a strategic move considering that vaccines are generally a durable business and are typically immune from any generic competition.

Although it is not one of the leading vaccine developers in the COVID-19 race, Merck has positioned itself as the leader in the cancer drug development sector and its distribution over at least the next decade.

I believe that Merck’s prudent business, strategic acquisitions, and exciting pipeline will gradually push the stock to the top.

In summary, I think that Merck is a good stock to buy. For those searching for a strong biopharmaceutical play at a reasonable price, this company should be on your shortlist.

merck vaccine

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-22 11:00:362020-09-23 13:38:45Why Merck is Underappreciated in the COVID-19 Race?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 17, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 17, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SHOULD WE CROWN PFIZER AS COVID-19 VACCINE KING NOW?)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2020-09-17 16:02:392020-09-17 16:47:33September 17, 2020
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Should We Crown Pfizer as COVID-19 Vaccine King Now?

Biotech Letter

Pfizer (PFE) has never been coy about playing up the potential of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, which it co-developed with German biotechnology company BioNTech (BNTX).

Now, it looks like the New York-based biopharmaceutical giant is putting its money where its mouth is.

Pfizer recently announced that it would be able to send BNT162b2 for FDA review as early as October.

More impressively, the company claims that if its COVID-19 vaccine gets approved, then it can start distribution in the US by the end of 2020.

In fact, Pfizer has already started manufacturing hundreds of thousands of doses of the vaccine.

Only a handful, if any, of the companies working on a COVID-19 vaccine are as confident as Pfizer. So far, only Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) can claim to be close rivals of the company.

Boosting the claims of Pfizer that it can produce results by October is the company’s decision to expand its Phase 3 vaccine trial. From the originally approved 30,000 participants, Pfizer seeks to add more to reach 44,000.

The expanded patient pool will include participants as young as 16 years old. Those with HIV and Hepatitis B and C will also be added to the list. Pfizer will also recruit more African Americans and Latinos. To date, the list includes 60% white and 40% people of color. Meanwhile, older participants comprise 44% of the group.

Like its fellow vaccine developers, Pfizer has also secured deals with different countries.

In July, the company secured a $1.95 billion contract with the US government. This deal will cover 100 million doses of BNT162b2, which is priced at $19.50 per dose. The contract also offers the government the option to add 500 million doses to its initial order.

BNT162b2 requires two doses, the initial shot and the booster shot. This puts the actual price for the two-dose regimen at $39.

In the same month, Pfizer also reached an agreement with the UK government to supply 30 million vaccine doses. Even Japan’s Ministry of Health reached out to the company and forged an agreement for 120 million doses.

Pfizer and BioNTech estimate that it will need to produce 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and 1.3 billion doses to cover the demand worldwide.

Pfizer expects the sales for BNT162b2 to peak this year and throughout 2021. It might even reach the early months of 2020.

After this period, the vaccine will still be able to provide a steady revenue stream thanks to regular and repeat vaccinations over the next years.

So far, Pfizer accounts for roughly 13% share of the vaccine market across the globe. This competitive advantage would make it quite convenient for the company to leverage this status to capture a minimum of 6% of the COVID-19 vaccine market.

A conservative estimate for this market size would put Pfizer’s annual earnings after the peak sales period of the vaccine at roughly $1.52 billion.

However, Pfizer’s dominance in the COVID-19 vaccine race is not confined to its widely publicized work on BNT162b2.

Unlike its competitors that fielded only one candidate each, Pfizer and BioNTech included four potential messenger RNA-based vaccines in their studies. Ultimately, they chose to move forward with BNT162b2.

While everyone is focused on how the candidate will fare in the trials, Pfizer and BioNTech quietly initiated a Phase 1 clinical study for their fifth and virtually unknown candidate: BNT162b3.

This move by Pfizer and BioNTech echoes the strategy its leaders shared in the beginning.

By having “multiple shots-on-goal,” the companies are in a great position for the “long-term catch-up vaccination, revaccination, and/or pandemic stockpiling markets."

After all, the first wave of COVID-19 vaccines that reach the market will not be the endgame.

Similar to most contagious diseases, follow-up vaccines with higher efficacy and proven to be safer than those released earlier would have the chance to attract a substantial market share.

With the fifth vaccine candidate, it is clear that Pfizer and BioNTech do not simply want to be the first to launch a COVID-19 vaccine. Both companies aim to become the most dominant players in the coronavirus vaccine market over the long run.

Overall, Pfizer has once again chosen a diversified approach in dealing with the tight competition in the COVID-19 race.

This strategic decision could be one of the most compelling reasons to bet on this big biotechnology and healthcare stock today.

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 15, 2020

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 15, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ASTRAZENECA’S BUMP IN THE ROAD)
(MRNA), (AZN), (PFE), (MRK), (JNJ), (GSK), (SNY), (CVAC), (BNTX), (INO)

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