Those who will be attending my Incline Village Global Strategy luncheon today, April 17 are welcome to join me on my daily hike afterwards.
You need to do something to work off the excellent lunch.
I?ll be kicking off from the trailhead at the Tunnel Creek Caf? off of Nevada State Highway 28.
Please bring your hiking boots, hat, sunscreen, and a canteen. The weather will be perfect tomorrow. I?ll bring the bear spray and the Bowie knife, as the mountain lions are migrating back up into the mountain this time of year.
Be sure to bring a coat and wool sweater. Coming down the mountain last night, it was a chilly 25 degrees.
We will start at Lake level at 6,125 feet and climb straight up to the Tahoe Rim Trail at 8,200 feet. Those inclined to do so can then continue on with me to a nearby peak at 9,500 feet.
I?ll even give you a handicap. You don?t have to carry my 60-pound pack. Nor do you have to pick up a 30 pound log at the summit and carry it back down to the parking lot for that extra bit if exercise.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/John-Thomas5.jpg398393Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-17 09:12:392015-04-17 09:12:39Special Note for My April 17 Incline Village Lunch Guests
Below, I have listed a portfolio of ten stocks that will almost certainly double in three years. If I am wrong, it will gain 100% in only two years.
But there is a catch. This basket of stocks may have to drop 20%-30% first. It is a cardinal rule of investment that if you want to earn higher returns, you must accept higher volatility as well.
It doesn?t require a rocket scientist to figure out that this is an energy-based portfolio.
Crude will almost certainly hit its trough in the current quarter, if it hasn?t already. But this python has a couple of pigs that it has to digest first.
As an old oilman, I can tell you that the oil majors have never been able to forecast the price of oil, and that is with all the resources in the world to accomplish this.
This is why they hedge out all their production in the futures market, or with long-term contracts with customers. The oil companies that thought they could predict the price of oil all went out of business a long time ago.
And as a mathematician, I can also tell you that this is an impossible task. There are just too many variables involved. So, don?t even try.
The bottom line is that absolutely no one can pinpoint when and where oil will hit bottom.
Let?s start with the supply side. Thanks to the avalanche of cash that poured into fracking plays at the top of the market last year, US oil production is still rising, some 500,000 barrels a day during the first half of 2015.
This is occurring because once money enters the production pipeline, it stays there forever. Drillers would rather complete a half finished well and sell its output at a loss for a couple of years, rather than shut down construction and lose everything.
However, new projects have fallen precipitously. You see this is the collapse of the number of drilling rigs in use, from a peak of 1,600 last year to only 700 last week.
Then there is the storage issue. Much of this new oil is going straight into storage. As a result, the facilities at Cushing, Oklahoma, will be full in a matter of weeks. Virtually every tanker in the world has already been chartered and is also loaded to the gunnels with Texas tea.
Once all the storage in the world is full to capacity, there is no alternative but to cap wells, or dump new production on the spot market. This could lead to the price Armageddon that so many investors have been worried about.
The peace deal with Iran won?t be a factor. For starters, an agreement is not a sure thing, with religious fundamentalists in both countries attempting to torpedo the deal.
Even if the negotiators are successful, it will take a year for Iran to ramp up its antiquated wells to get more product to market. And by the way, Iran is also thought to be storing oil it couldn?t sell in a fleet of tankers offshore.
Now, let?s look at the demand side. We only need two letters for this one: QE.
We are a mere 1? months into what is probably a 5-6 year program of quantitative easing in Europe. The Bank of Japan continues to dump massive amounts of cash into its own economy. Even China is easing.
In the meantime, the United States is still basking in the glow of its own just ended hyper aggressive $4 trillion QE strategy. It?s now looking like all of America?s 2015 economic growth will be concentrated in the final three quarters of the year.
This all adds up to a global synchronized economic recovery and much higher oil prices. Personally, I think oil could recover $70 a barrel in 2016, and $100 by 2018.
This is why large, long term institutional investors are happy to look across any potential $30 valley that may occur over the next few months and are loading the boat with energy stocks now.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Energy.jpg383609Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-17 09:10:212015-04-17 09:10:21The Portfolio That Will Double in Three Years
Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE FRIDAY, APRIL 17 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (DON?T GET SCAMMED BY THE MUTUAL FUNDS), (WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), ?(XOM), (COP), (OXY), (USO)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) ConocoPhillips (COP) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) United States Oil ETF (USO)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, April 17, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $197.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/John-Thomas5.jpg398393Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-14 01:05:472015-04-14 01:05:47Last Chance to Friday, April 17 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon
Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH), (FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (GS), (IWM), (PANW), ?(ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS), (A NOTE ON THE UPCOMING FRIDAY APRIL 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (GS), (FXE), (IWM)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. (ZIOP) Theravance Inc. (THRX) Zoetis Inc. (ZTS)
We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
My bets that (GS) and the (IWM) would rise, and that the (FXE) and (FXY) would fall during March and April proved dead on accurate.
Provided that some 9/11 type even doesn?t occur this week, all positions should expire at their maximum profit point on April 17. In that case, your profits on these positions will amount to 16.4% for the (FXE), 14.2% for (GS), and 16.4% for the (IWM).
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions. The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done. You don?t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use you long put position to cover the short put position, cancelling out the total holding. Ditto for the call spreads. The profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, and he margin freed up.
If you don?t see the cash show up in you account on the following Monday, April 20, get on the blower immediately. Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
I don?t usually run positions into expiration like this, preferring to take profits two weeks ahead of time, as the risk reward is no longer that favorable.
But we have a ton of cash right now, and I don?t see any other great entry points for the moment. Better to keep the cash working and duck the double commissions. This time being a pig paid off handsomely.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?
One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
There are already interesting trades setting up in bonds (TLT), the (SPY), the Russell 2000 (IWM), NASDAQ (QQQ), solar stocks (SCTY), oil (USO), and gold (GLD).
The currencies seem to have gone dead for the time being, so I?ll stay away.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Woman-Pat-on-the-Back-e1428930558429.jpg299400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-13 09:09:592015-04-13 09:09:59A Note on the Upcoming Friday April 17 Options Expiration
Featured Trade: (LAS VEGAS WEDNESDAY MAY 8 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON) (WEDNESDAY APRIL 15 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES)
?There is nowhere in the industrialized world where bond markets are looking for more than 2% inflation or more than 1% real interest rates over the next decade,? said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Hot-Air-Balloon-e1438023081790.jpg300271Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-10 01:02:252015-04-10 01:02:25April 10, 2015 - Quote of the Day
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
Essential Website Cookies
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
Google Analytics Cookies
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.