• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu
Arthur Henry

March 2, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 2, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 28 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(GOOGL), (AAPL), (SPY), (LEN), (FCX), (FXY),
(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-02 01:09:312018-03-02 01:09:31March 2, 2018
Arthur Henry

February 28 Global Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader February 28 Global Strategy Webinar.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot!

Q: Will we retest the 200-day moving average?

A: No, we won't. With the last test of the 200-day, we didn't even get to the 200-day, we just flirted with it. Moreover, there was a complete washout-not only from, all the short volatility players but, additionally, all the hot money in the market as well. So, I doubt we will get down to the 200-day again this year. Next year is likely, this year no.

Q: What is the next catalyst for a move up in the market?

A: Either a spectacular earnings report from a major company like Apple (and the next one is May 2), or news of the size of major share buybacks from companies like Google (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO), etc. Some indication of news like that will draw more buyers back into the market.

Q: When will companies start buying back their shares?

A: They are buying them back every day. They're not allowed to buy back shares just before or just after earnings reports, but all of the Q4 earnings reports are done now, so we have a free run here for about two months where most companies are going to be automatically buying their own shares back daily. They're on auto-buy programs to dispel any risk of insider trading in their own shares. That's also why the largest share buyback companies had the largest moves in the last three weeks- Apple was certainly one of them, with the share up $31 in only two weeks.

Q: Should I look to emerging markets now? Is it a better value play than US equities?

A: Yes. I still expect emerging markets to outperform the US stock market by about a 2 to 1 margin. Buy the (EEM) on any dip.

Q: Do you think the infrastructure bill will get passed this year?

A: No, because it will require more deficit spending, and at a certain point the Republicans have to draw the line. We still have a large number of deficit hawks inside the Republican Party. If they do pass something, it will essentially be meaningless, (giving tax breaks for real estate developers or something of that sort). There will be no real impact on the economy or the stock market.

Q: What about LEAPS on NVIDIA (NVDA) and Lam Research (LRCX)?

A: That would have been a great thing to do on Feb 9. You don't want to do LEAPS - long term one-year option positions -??after stocks have just made 30% moves up, you do it before. You only do these at the very bottom of market moves. Because of their long duration, they can really get slaughtered when the stock goes against you.

Q: Is NVIDIA still going up to new highs?

A: Yes. My last bet was for a third double in the shares from $180 to $320, and we are already well on our way. The company is firing on all cylinders.

Q: Should I buy housing stocks?

A: They're still down from February...I would say yes. We see an extreme shortage in housing supply continuing for year, and enormous increases in new construction permits from the big home builders- like up 10% in a month; these are huge numbers. So, I'd have to think that the housing stocks like Lennar (LEN), Pulte Homes (PHM), and KB Homes (KBH) are going to come back big time.

Q: What is your TBT target?

A: I would say right around here I would be happy to take a short-term profit. You don't want to run the TBT for the long-term because it has a -6% per year negative cost of carry. It's a great short-term trading instrument, not a long-term hold. We now have a monster profit - it's just gone from $32 to $40, which is a 25% gain in three months. I'd take that and look for a better re-entry point later.

Q: If we missed the Currency Shares Japan Yen Trust (FXY) short position yesterday, should we go into it today?

A: Yes, but only use limit orders in the middle market. If you get done at your price: great. If not, walk away and just watch it. The fundamentals for the Japanese yen are as terrible as ever.

Q: If you had a choice between gold and Bitcoin, what would you take?

A: Bitcoin, never. It reliably brings us 70% corrections at any time without warning. Buy gold on the next dip. The bull market for the barbarous relic still lives, it's just getting a slow start.

Q: Is First Solar (FSLR) a buy even though it's not supported by the administration?

A: Yes. First Solar's business model is so strong they will be profitable no matter who's in office and whether there are subsidies or not. So, any dip on that is a green light. That's why the shares are up 200% in eight months. They are a back-door oil play. That said, there is some double top risk on the shares right here.

Q: Is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) a hold?

A: Yes, because copper will recover. Guess what electric cars buy tons of? We are moving to a copper-based transportation system. China's economy is also holding steady, which is another major factor supporting copper.

Q: Has your view on commodities changed over the last few months?

A: No, I still think commodities will outperform stocks this year- that view has not changed. You had a fantastic entry point two weeks ago. Look for higher highs now. Commodities are always big movers as we approach the end of an economic cycle.

With all that, I'll see you at the next Global Trading Strategy webinar on March 14 at 12:00 EST.

Good Luck and Good Trading!
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/John-Thomas-Tesla.jpg 330 317 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-02 01:07:552018-03-02 01:07:55February 28 Global Strategy Webinar Q&A
Arthur Henry

Notice to Military Subscribers

Diary, Newsletter, Research

To the dozens of subscribers in Afghanistan and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service!

I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out.

Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia four decades ago. In fact, employers have been given fantastic tax breaks and other incentives to hire you.

I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on private newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind.

If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no secret messages embedded with stock tips. "BUY" really does mean "BUY." "Sel" means "Sell" too.

If I did not know the higher ups at these agencies, as well as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now wearing an orange jumpsuit.

It also helps that many of the mid-level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever becomes liquid, I'm going to own it.

Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close. Try a ten-mile radius centered around Langley, Virginia, by a large margin.

The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven't quite figured that one out yet. Did we hire the entire KGB at the end of the cold war? If we did, it was a great move. Those guys were good. That includes you, Yuri.

So keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail addresses. That way my life can become a lot more boring.

Oh, and by the way, Langley, you're behind on your bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don't want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!

I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/army-cig-e1498672458898.jpg 393 557 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-02 01:06:372018-03-02 01:06:37Notice to Military Subscribers
Arthur Henry

March 1, 2018

Diary

Global Market Comments
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY),
(BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND)
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-01 01:09:162018-03-01 01:09:16March 1, 2018
Arthur Henry

Become My Facebook Friend

Diary, Newsletter

If you would like to get a free headline service from The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, then please join my 1,956 close and intimate friends on Facebook.

Every day we are posting headlines along with summaries of the stories on our Facebook page. As soon as you open your own Facebook page, you will receive our latest headlines as newsfeeds.

Paid subscribers who want to read the full research piece can then click through to it on our main site.

To "friend me", please go to my Facebook page by clicking here.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/john-thomas-hat.jpg 367 244 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-03-01 01:07:272018-03-01 01:07:27Become My Facebook Friend
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - March 1, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"If I had a ticket to Heaven, and you didn't have one, I'd give it away and go to hell with you," said president Ronald Reagan to retiring House Majority leader Tip O'Neal.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Woman-Devil.jpg 241 153 The Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png The Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-03-01 01:05:492018-03-01 01:05:49Quote of the Day - March 1, 2018
Arthur Henry

March 1, 2018

Diary

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 1, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE FANGS??? PATH TO ONLINE BANKING),
(SQ), (V), (MC), (AXP), (JPM)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 19:47:302018-02-28 19:47:30March 1, 2018
Arthur Henry

February 28, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 28, 2018
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL BERKSHIRE HATHWAY ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(ON WARREN BUFFET'S 2017 LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS),
(BRK/A), (AAPL), (IBM), (AXP), (KO),
(WFC), (BAC), (BNSF), (BHE), (WMT)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-28 01:07:042018-02-28 01:07:04February 28, 2018
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

About Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders

Diary, Newsletter

I have been reading Warren Buffet's annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) shareholders for 41 years.

During this time, I can't recall reading a single page that did not improve my own trading and investment skills. This years was no different.

Of course, it helps that Warren was a founding subscriber to my own daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

A few years ago he bought a 5% stake in Bank of America (BAC) right at a multi decade bottom. He says he got the idea while reading a report in his bathtub.

What he omits in public is that it was MY Trade Alert to buy (BAC) call options issued the day before that he was reading.

And what a blockbuster year it has been!

Berkshire increased the share value by a stunning 23.0%. It added a gargantuan $65.3 billion in book value last year.

The market capitalization now stands at an impressive $525 billion.

The shares are not for small timers, as a single one now costs $317,840. Warren has never exercised a share split, viewing it as a needless Wall Street ploy to earn excess fees.

This compares to a 1965 per share market value of only $23.80, and is why the media are always going gaga over Warren Buffet.

If you're lazy and don't want to do the math, that works out to a compound annualized return of an eye popping 19.1%.

This is why guessing what Warren is going to do next has become a major cottage industry (Progressive Insurance anyone?).

Buffet is quick to point out that only $36 billion came from operations, the balance of $29 billion came as a gift from the US government in the form of the December package of tax cuts.

It truly shows the extent to which big business benefited from the bill, which is entirely dependent on borrowed funds.

Thanks to the extreme elevation of share prices 2017 was the first time in many years that Berkshire Hathaway did not make a major acquisition. It says a lot that the best investor in history can't find anything to buy in this market.

As a result, Berkshire is sitting on an eye-popping $116 billion in cash and US Treasury bills waiting for an opportunity, like another market crash.

Warren gave some insight to the cost to Berkshire of the three major hurricanes last year, as insurance is a mainstay of the company's strategy.

The tab came to $3 billion out of an industry wide total loss of $100 billion, putting the conglomerate's insurance operations at an operating loss for the first time in a decade. Buffet expects to make it back this year.

If Hurricane Irma had drifted only a few miles to the east, the industry loss would have doubled to a staggering $200 billion, and many insurance companies would have been pushed into bankruptcy.

I always thought that global warming would be terrible for property and casualty companies. It's not. Instead, it's great news.

The important thing about global warming is not that the temperature is getting hotter or colder. It's that the weather moves.

The end result is that those in parts of the world prone to storms, hurricanes, floods, fires, and other natural disaster pay much higher premiums. But the weather then shifts to other parts of the world that has no insurance coverage.

The higher income and fewer claims is a formula for printing money in Buffet's four major property and casualty insurance companies.

Sometime in the early 1970's, a friend of mine said I should take a look at a stock named Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) run by a young stud named Warren Buffet.

I thought, "Why the hell should I invest in a company that makes sheets."

After all, the American textile industry was in the middle of a long trek toward extinction that began in the 1920's and was only briefly interrupted by the hyper prosperity of WWII.

The industry's travails were simply an outcome of ever rising US standards of living, which pushed wages, and therefore costs, up.

It turned out that Warren Buffet made a lot more than sheets. However, he is not a young stud anymore, just an old one, like me.

Since then, Warren's annual letter to investors has been an absolute "must read" for me when it is published every year.

It has been edited for the past half century by my friend, Carol Loomis, who just retired after a 60-year career with Fortune magazine. (I never wrote for them because their freelance rates were lousy).

Witty, insightful, and downright funny, I view it as a cross between a Harvard Business School seminar and a Berkeley antiestablishment demonstration.

You will find me lifting from it my "Quotes of the Day" for the daily newsletter over the next several issues. There are some real zingers.

I was kind of pissed when Warren bought BNSF in 2009 for a blockbuster $44 billion, as it was long my favorite trading vehicles for the sector. Since then, its book value has doubled.

Together with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE), BNSF accounts for 33% of Berkshire's total after tax operating earnings.

Typical Warren.

Proving that humility is a crucial ingredient of long-term investment success, Warren devotes an early part of the letter to his fiasco at Dexter Shoe in 1993.

He bought the company for $434 million, which then promptly went bankrupt. Compounding the error, he paid for company not with cash, but with Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Today, that stock is worth in excess of $6 billion, which was paid out at the expense of other Berkshire shareholders.

Buffet opined at length on the Great American Economic Miracle, which he does every year.

Since 1776, America has amassed an unbelievable $90 trillion in wealth. There are 75 million owner occupied homes, 260 million cars, and talent filled universities by the hundreds.

Our unique system of free market capitalism has acted as an economic traffic cop, ably directing capital, brains, and labor to where it can be most efficiently used.

Warren then launched on an eloquent argument in favor of company share buy backs, now a hot topic among investors and in Washington.

Bottom line: Companies should always do it when they can get shares back at a discount to intrinsic or book value. Buffet does the same with Berkshire shares.

Warren clearly loves the insurance industry, which gives him the cash flow to make his many profitable investments.

And here is what I learned this year.

Another of Buffet's favorite companies is Clayton Homes, which accounts for 70% of new American homes priced under $150,000. Most of these are manufactured homes, or mobile homes to you and I.

Surprisingly, the real money in this business is in the subprime loans extended to customers.

What shocked many long time Buffet watchers was his sudden love affair with Apple (AAPL). After shunning the company for decades, he dove in with a major share purchase only in 2016.

In 2017, Warren invested more new capital in Apple (AAPL) than in any other company and it is now his second largest holding after Wells Fargo Bank (WFC).

Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM), and American Express (AXP) account for his next three top holdings.

I believe that Warren has partly been driven into Apple by the lack of other attractive investment alternatives eight years into a bull market.

He also deferred to his great grandkids, who seemed addicted to their Apple devices, indicating unshakable brand loyalty.

Warren ends his letter outlining the many events in store at the upcoming shareholders meeting on May 6 in Omaha, Nebraska, the "cradle of capitalism."

Guests can participate in a newsletter-throwing contest (one of Warren's and my first jobs), and get great deals on insurance (GEICO), and furniture (Nebraska Furniture Mart). Buyers of Brooks running shoes can join a 5k race the next day.

To learn more about the most amazing investor of our generation, and the two before, read "The Snowball" by Alice Schroeder.

As for me, I am way too busy to make it to Omaha. But I really look forward the next letter to shareholders.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/The-Snowball-by-Warren-Buffett-e1488333121317.jpg 400 259 The Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png The Mad Hedge Fund Trader2018-02-28 01:06:042018-02-28 01:06:04About Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders
Arthur Henry

February 27, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 27, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 28 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE UNITED STATES OF DEBT),
(TESTIMONIAL)

??
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2018-02-27 01:10:592018-02-27 01:10:59February 27, 2018
Page 391 of 823«‹389390391392393›»

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Scroll to top