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DougD

Market Outlook for the Coming Week

Diary, Newsletter

For all of 2016, financial markets have traded off of the assumption that gridlock would continue in Washington, DC.

Markets hate change, and love the status quo, predictability, and certainty.

Last week that assumption was turned on its head, thanks to the complete collapse of the Trump presidential campaign for reasons I am sure you are all too well aware of.

Clinton is now even or ahead in all 14 battleground states, many by double digits, and her standing in the polls is soaring like a hot Silicon Valley IPO.

Suddenly, the prospect of Democratic control of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court has been thrust under the noses of traders and investors everywhere, and they don?t like the smell.

This would represent change and in a big way.

Although still unlikely, here?s what such a game-changing outcome would deliver:

* The next three Supreme Court nominations, creating a liberal court for the next 40 years.

*Higher taxes for the wealthy, lower taxes for the poor.

*More regulation of banks through an updated Dodd-Frank.

*Regulation of pharmaceuticals through an Obamacare upgrade.

*Limited gun control (full autos, large magazines, silencers, and enhanced registration requirements for those on the no-fly list and the mentally ill).

*An end to Citizens United which permits unlimited anonymous corporate campaign donations.

*Voter rights will be expanded for minorities.

*Women?s health rights will be expanded in the most pro-choice manner possible.

*Globalization continues, with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) renegotiated and passed by another name.

Maybe Trump can pull his chestnuts out of the fire at the last presidential debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday, October 19.

But I doubt it.

If anything, he is likely to be more abusive, shrill, threatening, and deranged than in the past. At this point, he has nothing to lose.

Can Hillary stand up to Trump?s withering fire? We?ll find out soon enough.

Markets are waiting with baited breath.

Certainly the Las Vegas debate will be the preeminent market risk event of the week.

Monday, October 17th at 9:15 AM EST, we get September Industrial Production which was a yawn last month, but should show an improvement this month.

On Tuesday, October 18th at 10:00 AM EST we learn the NAHB Home Market Index.

On Wednesday, October 19th at 8:30 AM EST, the September Housing Starts are published. We?ll see how quickly rising mortgage interest rates are slowing the housing market.

The all important Fed Beige Book is out at 2:00 PM EST, giving us yet another read on the economy.

If you have trouble sleeping at night, the final presidential debate will keep you riveted to your TV screen. That starts at 9:00 PM EST.

On Thursday, October 20th at 8:30 AM EST we get the Weekly Jobless Claims which should confirm that employment remains at four-decade highs.

Friday, October 21st at 1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past 15 out of the past 16 weeks.

This should help cap oil prices for the short term which is what my (USO) trade is all about.

All in all, I expect us to continue trading in narrow ranges into the presidential election. Then, watch out!

Good luck and good trading.? Keep your hard hat on.

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas

You Need a Real Gunslinger in These Markets

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/John-Thomas1-e1421097493926.jpg 355 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:09:292016-10-17 01:09:29Market Outlook for the Coming Week
DougD

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Diary, Newsletter

It?s been a tough-fought battle. I have had to fight tooth and nail for every penny.

For the first time since September 2nd, I have been able to boost the six-year track record of Global Trading Dispatch to a new all time high.

It seems these days, you have to work twice as hard to earn half the money with more volatility.

We had an outrageous August, taking in a lip-smacking 7.52% profit.
?
I began this month with the assumption that financial markets would remain trapped in narrow ranges.

September was problematic, with my Trade Alerts essentially breaking even, up only 0.27%.

So I narrowed my focus to the short-term trading of the violent day-to-day swings we are seeing in the market.

It worked like a charm.

After a long dormancy, the Volatility Index (VIX) climbed out of the basement, seeing single day moves up to 40%. That enabled me to reel in two quick winners with the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX).

My brother in arms, Mad Options Trader ?Whiz?, has done even better on the volatility front.

Since then, I have been trading like a Mad man, fading moves in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the United State Treasury Bond Fund (TLT), and then taking profits in days.

This week, I cast my net over a broader range of asset classes, buying the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and selling short the United States Oil Fund (USO) on top of the latest OPEC-induced spike.

Both positions turned immediately profitable.

Keeping a death grip on every dollar I take in, I am now running very tight stop losses. This has lead to an irritating jump in small losses, but has enhanced my profitability over all.

Keep in mind that this is an environment where almost no one is making any money at all.

I tell my financial advisor and long term investor friends to just turn off the TV, as there has been very little net movement in asset classes over all.

Things will be better in a year.

It is impossible for them to catch these short-term moves, let alone explain them to clients.

I expect this state of affairs to continue until the November 8th presidential election.

What we are getting is not a ?price correction,? but a ?time correction?, whereby prices grind sideways before breaking out to the upside.

This brings my 2016 year-to-date performance up to an enviable 16.81%, compared with 4.65% for the S&P 500. The trailing 12-month return is 18.25%

My six-year return now reaches an eye popping 208.49%, delivering an average annualized return of 35.75%.

These are numbers that any financial advisor, hedge fund manager, or retiree trading their retirement accounts from home would kill for. Most are losing money this year, net of fees and expenses.

Those who have made the effort to wake up early every morning, read my witty and incisive prose and actively trade my proprietary alerts have an impressive row of notches on their bedpost to show for their endeavors.
?
My groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of subscribers now earn a full-time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.

Some 50% of my clients are over 50 and managing their own retirement funds, fleeing the shoddy, but expensive services provided by Wall Street. The balance are institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional financial advisors.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to level the playing field for the individual retail investor. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say we?re accomplishing that goal. To read the plaudits, please go to Testimonials.

Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.

To subscribe, please go to Global Trading Dispatch.

And now, for the rest of the year.

I can?t wait!

John Thomas, CEO
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

gtd-12-month-trailing-18-25-10-6-16

This is How You Do It
18.25% Trailing 12 Month Return

gtd-aar-35-75-10-6-16 35.75% Average Annualized Return Over 6 Years

spy tlt vix gld usoJohn Thomas

Reeling in the Big Ones

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-Thomas-1-e1463597031325.jpg 400 319 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:08:532016-10-17 01:08:53Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High
DougD

Grapes of Wrath Replay

Diary, Newsletter

It?s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population is doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs.

After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to bucolic Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern California.

There, thousands of families, half of them Asian,? harvest ripe Bing cherries and peaches at the wholesale price of $1 a pound, fruit that normally costs $6 a pound at the supermarket.

It all is a great opportunity to teach young kids the value of hard work, and where their food comes from.

Anything you eat in the orchard is free, an old California tradition. No doubt none of these people are counted in the government?s employment statistics.

It all a sign of the snowballing ?local? food movement, where California has been a leader.

It is? a great deal if you don?t mind having purple fingertips at the end of the day. Just watch out for the cars pulled over on the side of the road on the way home, their occupants puking out all their excess cherries.

In a nod to the 21st century, growers in this ?Grapes of Wrath? industry compile lists of email addresses, and notify their itinerant fruit pickers which crops are ready for harvest via the Internet.

Also on the calendar this season are grapes, apples, apricots, plums, loquats, nectarines, mandarin oranges, and wheel chair accessible walnuts (?).

At the end of each harvest, professional crews sweep through and pick up what?s left, if the prices will bear it.

If you wonder why we put up with the earthquakes, high taxes, gridlocked politics, and a non-functioning state government, this is the reason.

By the way, does anyone know what to do with 50 pounds of cherries? Send me your recipes. I already bought an automatic cherry pitter on Amazon.

Farmers Market

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/CHERRIES.jpg 301 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:07:262016-10-17 01:07:26Grapes of Wrath Replay
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Thanks John...rough ride out of the gates here...but I wouldn't want to be riding with anyone but you...you are my life raft in this treacherous world of investing, and thank you for being who you are and for all that you do.

Take care,

Greg B.
Agoura, California

john-in-striped-shirt

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/John-in-Striped-Shirt-e1476567829229.jpg 400 278 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-17 01:06:532016-10-17 01:06:53Testimonial
DougD

October 14, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 14, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBERR 18TH LAS VEGAS, NV GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(OIL?S LONG NIGHTMARE IS OVER),
(USO), (FXI), (EEM), (XOM), (OXY),
(COP), (XLE), (RDS/B), (BP), (CVX)

(CHINA?S VIEW OF CHINA),
(FXI), (BIDU), (BABA), (JD)

United States Oil (USO)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-B)
BP p.l.c. (BP)
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
JD.com, Inc. (JD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-14 01:09:142016-10-14 01:09:14October 14, 2016
DougD

Oil?s Long Nightmare is Over

Diary, Newsletter

I have been covering the energy industry for some 50 years.

As a teenager, I worked summers as a roustabout in Chevron?s Elk Hills Reserve in Southern California.

Then I spent a decade covering the Middle East, prospecting for Morgan Stanley. I got to know the Arabs when they were poor and barefoot, not wearing Gucci shoes as they do today.

I loved riding the long caravans into the desert, but never got used to eating those sheep's eyes. I am still picking fine sand out of every orifice from those days.

Investing in the new fracking technology in West Texas as a wildcatter in the late 1990s was a natural career progression for me. Since then, I have been trading various oil-related derivatives on a nearly daily basis.

So, it is safe to say I know which end of an oil well is up.

One of the best long-term predictions I have made during the nine year life of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader occurred in 2013 when I predicted that an Iranian Peace deal with the US would lead to an immediate 50% drop in the price of oil (read more about that here Why You Should Care About the Iranian Rial Collapse).

I lied.

Crude fell by a staggering 83% from the 2011 top. We all got a monster windfall tax cut.

Intensive research and analysis enabled me and my subscribers to duck this collapse.

However, I believe that oil?s long tortuous nightmare is about to end.

But not for the reasons you might think.

The price of oil (USO) should maintain the current level or higher going into the end of 2016. I?m betting that it could reach $60 by the end of 2017 and $70 by the end of 2018.

The recovery will not be driven by the capping of production, as promised by the OPEC Vienna Meeting on November 30th.? Instead, it will be demand driven, primarily from China (FXI) and other emerging markets (EEM).

The Chinese economy is still growing at a 6% annual rate, and is now the largest creator of new GDP in the world. It is just emerging from a growth recession.

The Middle Kingdom has no real oil resources of its own. It did use the price collapse to fill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

So growth at current rates will demand that China start buying oil at current prices, primarily from the Persian Gulf.

Has fear of closure of the Straights of Hormuz kept you awake for the last 50 years, as it has for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and me?

You don?t need to worry anymore. It is now China?s headache, as they now buy 80% of the Gulf?s total output.

You know the ?War of the Dots? that is taking place in the South China Sea over those worthless coral atolls?

China?s sole interest is to extend their protection of the sea lanes to the Persian Gulf by just one day.

The great thing about this bold asset allocation call is that we are absolutely spoiled for choice of blue- chip energy investments which have been decimated by the crude collapse.

The oil majors are trading at a 25-year valuation low. The crude crash triggered a ferocious round of cost cutting at every firm, multiplying upside earnings leverage.

Dividend yields in the 4%-5% range are to die for.

If you want to go the "Seven Sisters" route, you won?t go wrong with Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS-B), BP Amoco (BP) (6.71% dividend yield), or Chevron (CVX) (4.15%).

You can buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) (3.42%) if you want to take the lawsuit risk.

My favorite is California-based Occidental Petroleum (OXY) (4.13%), with which I have had a long-term relationship. They have no offshore risk. I knew Dr. Armand Hammer, but more on that another day.

I don?t think we?ll ever reach $100 a barrel in oil prices again.

For a start, American frackers are poised to unleash 1 million barrels a day or more in new production any time prices warrant it.

Electric cars and conventional cars with far higher mileage per gallon are finally starting to permanently erode US gasoline demand.

So what we may get is a new oil market that stabilizes around a $50-$70 range over the next three years.

That is a price that will keep consumers, producers, and investors all happy.

wtic uso fxi xom oxy
man-with-oil-on-face

Finally, The Nightmare is Over

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Man-with-Oil-on-Face.jpg 408 343 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-14 01:07:472016-10-14 01:07:47Oil?s Long Nightmare is Over
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?If you are going to be bearish and against this market, you are betting against the three richest people on the earth, Yellen, Draghi, and Kuroda,? said market strategist, Ed Yardeni.

bear

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/bear.jpg 488 650 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-14 01:05:222016-10-14 01:05:22October 14, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

October 13, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 13, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE DRUG BATTLE COMING TO A NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR YOU),
(PFE), (LLY), (MRK), (CVS), (UNH), (ANTM),
(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),
(GLD), (GDX), (ABX),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Anthem, Inc. (ANTM)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-13 01:09:472016-10-13 01:09:47October 13, 2016
DougD

The Drug Battle Coming to a Neighborhood Near You

Diary, Newsletter

No, I?m not talking about warring Latin American drug gangs.

I?m not even referring to the legalization of marijuana, which looks like a done deal in California?s November 8th election.

No, I?m talking about the Golden State?s latest attempt to regulate drug prices.

What?s at stake here is a bifurcation of the entire US health care industry. The impact on your portfolio could be huge.

This is a big deal because, if successful, it could lead to a national movement to cap drug prices and gut the profitability of major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lily (LLY), and Merck (MRK).

On the other hand, health care providers and drug purchasers like CVS Health Group (CVS), United Health Group, (UNH), and Anthem (ANTM) would emerge as enormous winners.

Let me first tell you a story. In 1998 my late wife, Kyoko, was diagnosed with breast cancer.

Her doctor recommended a drug called Epogen which was highly effective at dealing with anemia during chemotherapy.

The problem was that since it was experimental, it was not covered by our insurance. It cost $1,000 a shot.

I said, ?No problem.? I was a hedge fund manger having a good year so I could afford it.

As Kyoko?s treatment progressed, she became friends with many other women undergoing the same process. The only problem was that they couldn?t afford the Epogen shots.

As a result, we watched them die one by one over a six-month period.

Kyoko got to live for another four years and passed? away in 2002.

Needless to say, I am somewhat sensitive to the issue of drug prices.

At issue is Proposition 61 which bars California?s health care plan, MediCal, from paying more for drugs than the US Department of Veteran Affairs.

Thanks to special negotiating power granted by the US Congress, the country?s 9 million veterans are able to obtain drugs on average 24% cheaper than typical consumers.

America?s 40 million Medicare recipients are barred by law from getting the same deal, thanks to decades of intense lobbying by conservative congressmen.

Nor are 4 million MediCal recipients who are currently costing California some $3.8 billion a year.

Competition from foreign drug suppliers is also similarly banned.

The battle over Proposition 61 promises to be the most expensive in US history. The pharmaceutical industry has so far poured more than $100 million into negative advertising to fight the measure.

Californians are now barraged with slickly-produced TV adds showing aged veterans begging you not to raise their drug prices.

At last count the polls are showing that Proposition 61 will pass with 70% of the vote.

AARP is a major supporter (please stop sending me those membership cards), as are AIDS activist groups. Veterans' groups oppose it.

It is all part of a nationwide backlash against the predatory practices of drug pricing.

This year has seen a 500% increase in the price of Mylan?s (MYL) EpiPens which are used to treat severe allergic reactions, tenfold price hikes for AIDS drugs and Hepatitis C treatments that cost $1,000 a pill.

Only last week, Mylan agreed to pay a $465 million fine for overcharging Medicare for EpiPens.

Drugs for chemotherapy, diabetes, and high blood pressure have also seen dramatic price increases.

It all vindicates my decision to take a vacation from the big pharma and health care space during 2016. Wide open to populist attack by both political parties, it is better to keep your cash out of the line of fire.

However, once the polls close there are going to be some great deals to be had in the shares of these reasonably growing industries.

My bet is that president Hillary is going to target the most egregiously offending companies, like Mylan, that only buy monopoly patents and mark prices up tenfold without doing any real medical research.

Mainstream big pharma companies like Pfizer and Eli Lily, which invest heavily in research, should not be affected.

By the way, Epogen is now covered by Obamacare. It works.

myl pfe cvs
unh antm
veteran

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Veteran-e1476327932175.jpg 242 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-13 01:08:162016-10-13 01:08:16The Drug Battle Coming to a Neighborhood Near You
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold

Diary, Newsletter

The Armageddon crowd must be slitting their wrists today watching gold hit a new four month low in the wake of the global interest rate rally.

No flight to safety here.

The Armageddon crowd are the guys who are perennially predicting the collapse of the dollar, the default of the US government, hyperinflation, and the end of the world.

Better to keep all your assets in gold and silver, store at least a year?s worth of canned food, and keep your guns well oiled and supplied with ammo, preferably in high capacity magazines.

If you followed their advice, you lost your shirt.

I have broken many of these wayward acolytes of their money-losing habits. But not all of them. There seems to be an endless supply emanating from the hinterlands.

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, often goes to great lengths to explain why he despises the yellow metal.

The sage doesn't really care about gold whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear.

If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money on gold. If they aren't, then you lose money.

The only problem now is that fear ain't working.

If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube 67 feet on a side, worth $5 trillion. For that same amount of money, you could own other assets with far greater productive earning power including:

*All the farmland in the US, about 1 billion acres, which is worth $2.5 trillion.

*8 Apples (AAPL), the largest capitalized company in the world, at $634 billion.

Instead of producing any income or dividends, gold just sits there and shines, making you feel like King Midas.

I don't know. With the stock market at an all time high, and oil trading at $50/barrel, a bet on fear looks pretty good to me right now.

I'm still sticking with my long term forecast of the old inflation-adjusted high of $2,300/ounce.

It is just a matter of time before emerging market central bank buying pushes it up there.

And who knows? Fear might make a comeback too.
gld gdx abxGold Coin

Maybe Feeling Like King Midas is Not So Bad

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Gold-Coin.jpg 235 225 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-13 01:07:282016-10-13 01:07:28Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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