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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Holy smokes! You really did it with the UNG trade. Up 25% in two hours? How did you do that? It was the best trade you?ve ever done. It?s the best trade I?ve ever done.

It was the right thing to do at the right time. And you had the balls to put it on after the (UNG) opened down a dollar. The follow up report was one of your best ever written as well. I will never again doubt your advice.

The next chicken fried steak at Billy Bob?s is on me. Thank?s a million.

George
Tampa, Florida

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2015 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Investing and investment is the one sphere of life where victory, security, and success are always to the minority and never to the majority. When you find anyone agreeing with you, change your mind,? said the famous economist, John Maynard Keynes.

John Maynard Keynes

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 12, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NEW TRAINING VIDEO ON VERTICAL BEAR PUT SPREADS),
(HAPPY BIRTHDAY IRS!)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-12 01:08:432015-11-12 01:08:43November 12, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Happy Birthday IRS!

Diary, Newsletter

Some taxpayers have been sending birthday cards in with their tax returns this year. That?s because the International Revenue Service, the collector of America?s tax revenues, is 102 years old this year.

Although the wealthy have been paying income taxes since the 1861-65 Civil War, they did not apply to the rest of us until the passage of the 16th Amendment.

The original form 1040, of which I have included a copy below, was one page long and imposed a starting tax rate of 1% over incomes of $3,000. The maximum tax rate was 7%. It included a deduction for shipwrecks.

When WWI broke out, that rate was taken up to 77%. Only 3% of the population had tax liabilities, compared to 54% today.

Since 1913, the pages of instructions and deductions have soared from one to over 73,000. Today, some 6.6 billion man hours are spent preparing US tax returns. That works out to keeping 3.3 million people on the job full time. Talk about a growth business!

According to the Pew Research Center, 56% of Americans dislike taxes, but 71% feel they have a moral responsibility to pay what they owe. Yet, 34% say they pay more than their fair share of taxes, while 60% believe they are paying the right amount.

In 1775, the American Revolution first started as a tax revolt, with American merchants protesting the special exemptions enjoyed by British ones. That led to the Boston Tea Party whereby Americans masquerading as Indians dumped competing duty free imports overboard.

Fairness of the system has been a recurring theme ever since. That is why Mitt Romney?s 13.9% tax rate was such a big deal in the 2012 presidential election.

About 1% of taxpayers are audited each year, with the wealthiest 12 times more likely to get audited than the middle class. This brings a famous Willy Sutton quote to mind: ?Why rob banks? Because that?s where the money is.?

Where are residents least like to be audited by the IRS? The Aleutian Islands in Alaska. And the most likely? Beverly Hills, California. Small businesses top the list, with those in the real estate and construction industries dominating.

The Justice Department brings about 1,000 criminal tax evasion cases a year. Jail times have only been required since 1987 (thank you Ronald Reagan!).

That works out to one return out of every 150,000, so play audit roulette if you will. Their success rate in obtaining convictions is a mathematically impossible 98.5%. Some 70% of jurors believe the defendant is guilty before the case is even heard.

Today is probably the best time ever to cheat on your taxes. The IRS is wilting from millions of fraudulent tax returns returns filed by Internet scammers to obtain stolen refunds. I got hit by one of these myself, and it took six months for me to get my rightful refund (click here for ?The Letter From the IRS You Should Dread?).

There is also a major offensive underway to close down illicit offshore bank accounts. The agency is gaining traction on this with a reward program that offers snitches 10% of the funds recovered.

If you have one of these operated by a shell company in the British Virgin Island or Belize, you?re better off fessing up now. Remember that the Justice Department can track the movement of a dollar anywhere in the world at any time, whether a foreign country cooperates or not.

The burden to deliver the data always traces back to an American bank, when funds are transferred, even between foreign countries.

What is the most common error committed on tax returns? Divorced parents both claiming the same children as dependents. The mistake is automatically caught by electronic filing with the earliest filer getting the tax savings. So don?t bother.

Now how much did I lose on that shipwreck last year?

Tax Form

Boston Tea PartyEqualizing the Tax System

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Tax-Form.jpg 767 594 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-12 01:06:152015-11-12 01:06:15Happy Birthday IRS!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2015 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?I?d rather have Tim Cook running my company than Carl Icahn,? said Internet journalist and biographer, Walter Isaacson.

Carl Icahn

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Carl-Icahn-e1414021286702.jpg 170 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-12 01:05:522015-11-12 01:05:52November 12, 2015 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 11, 2015
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL VETERAN?S DAY ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(WE?RE HIRING!)
(THE TAX RATE FALLACY),
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-11 01:09:102015-11-11 01:09:10November 11, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

We?re Hiring!

Diary, Newsletter

Thanks to an influx of new readers from around the world, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader has no choice but to expand its staff.

We are looking for someone who can help us with the innards of our website. That involves the daily maintenance of the website, software updates, and the posting of content.

Applicants should be knowledgeable about WordPress, its database plug-in S2, Vimeo for video posting, Infusionsoft, the AWeber email program, Message Media for text alerts, and GoToWebinar for our strategy webinars.

The job will be part time to start and could work up to full time. This is a work from home position, training can be accomplished on site in Tampa, FL or via Skype.

Salary will be commensurate with experience. And you get to work with the most interesting people in the world.

Please send resumes to Nancy at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Please put ?RESUME? in the subject line.

Hiring Sign

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Hiring-Sign-e1447188850761.jpg 346 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-11 01:08:072015-11-11 01:08:07We?re Hiring!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 10, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 10, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG),
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)

ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM)
ProShares Ultra Industrials (UXI)
ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC)
ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-10 01:08:492015-11-10 01:08:49November 10, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 9, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 9, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BLOCKBUSTER OCTOBER NONFARM PAYROLL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXY), (YCS),
(BANK OF AMERICA IS BREAKING OUT ALL OVER),
(BAC), (XLF), (TLT)
(THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-09 01:09:362015-11-09 01:09:36November 9, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Blockbuster October Nonfarm Payroll and Your Portfolio

Diary, Newsletter

You could almost hear the roof blow off the top of the New York Stock Exchange when they announced the October nonfarm payroll. At a mind blowing 271,000, it came in at double the low ball pessimistic estimates.

The headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, a decade low. The 4% handle beckons next month.

Bonds (TLT), the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), oil (USO), and gold (GLD) crashed.

Banks stocks (KBE), the dollar (UUP) rocketed. Stocks were indifferent, as they already saw this move coming in October.

I have been observing these asset classes and their interrelationships for a half century, and every one is simultaneously pointing to the same conclusion. There is a gigantic ?RISK ON? move unfolding for the rest of 2015, and possibly for the next six months.

If you are one of the many new readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader who only recently just started reading this letter, you can now rush out and buy back all of those stocks you sold at the bottom in August because other newsletters told you to do so, like everyone else.

If you are one of my long-term subscribers, you already knew this was coming and positioned for it accordingly.

GOTTA LOVE THOSE SHORT BOND AND JAPANESE YEN POSITIONS!

There was really no place for the bears to hide in the October numbers.

YOY gains in wages were biggest since July, 2009. Private sector job growth was an eye-popping +268,000. The August and September payroll reports were revised up 12,000.

Business and professional services saw a +78,000 gain. Health care tacked on +45,000 jobs, while retail picked up +44,000. Mining lost -5,000 jobs, as usual.

The truly significant development with this data set was that the broader U-6 unemployment rate finally broke 10% for the first time in eight years, dropping to 9.8%.

The October number RULES OUT ANY CHANCE THAT THE FED WILL NOT RAISE RATES at the December 16-17 meeting.

Now that the economy is clearly strengthening, the global stock markets have stabilized, and a floor has been put under China, the path is clear for two such rate rises.

A new debate will now ensue. Will the Fed accelerate its tightening policy, moving beyond just two modest increases?

PERISH THE THOUGHT!

Here are the implications for your IRA, 401k, and pension fund.

*Stocks - sideways first, then higher. They already anticipated this figure with the heroic rise in October.
*Bonds - Keep falling until the next recession, whenever that is.
*Commodities - down first, then up big.
*Foreign Currencies - fall for another few years.
*Precious Metals - drop to new four year lows.
*Volatility - stays low until the next ?Sell in May.?
*The Ags - put in a bottom and then rise with El Ni?o.
*Real Estate - keeps rising as buyers rush to beat bigger rate increases.

THERE IS A REALLY EXCITING POSSIBILITY NOW SETTING UP FOR THE YEAR END.

Originally I thought that a mid-December rate rise then would trigger a mini correction in the major stock indexes. Today?s nonfarm payroll eliminates that uncertainty, and the correction that went with it.

Instead, we are getting that mini correction now. It will only last several more days. After that, it is UP, UP, AND AWAY.

We could well ring out this year with the markets at the top tick of the year. Now that?s a thought!

Just thought you?d like to know.

TNX 11-6-15

SPY 11-6-15

BKX 11-6-15

UUP 11-6-15

nonfarm payroll

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/nonfarm-payroll-e1446850270862.jpg 188 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-11-09 01:08:262015-11-09 01:08:26The Blockbuster October Nonfarm Payroll and Your Portfolio
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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