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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014.

A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.

You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Socks only are welcome, and if it?s cold, we will throw some extra wood on the fire. Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired, but elated. He even gave me a valued pebble from the summit.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $195.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The hotel is just down the street from the town?s beautiful 17th century church.

The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

matterhorn-Copy2-1

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/matterhorn-Copy2-1.jpg 300 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-11 01:04:172014-07-11 01:04:17July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 10, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 10, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY IS THE S&P 500 BEATING THE DOW),
(SPY), (BAC), (HPQ), (AA), (GS), (V), (NKE), (AAPL),
(GE), ($NIKK), (CAT), (DIS), (INTC),
(AN EVENING WITH BILL GATES, SR.)
(TESTIMONIAL)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)
Alcoa Inc. (AA)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
Visa Inc. (V)
Nike, Inc. (NKE)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
General Electric Company (GE)
Tokyo Nikkei Average (EOD) INDX ($NIKK)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Intel Corporation (INTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-10 01:06:442014-07-10 01:06:44July 10, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 9, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 9, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 11 SARDINIA, ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(DON?T BE SHORT CHINA HERE),
($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (CHL), (BIDU),
(CATCHING UP WITH ECONOMIST DAVID HALE),
(EEM), (GREK), (IWW), (EWJ), (NGE), (FXY), (YCS)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index ($SSEC)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
iShares Russell 3000 Value (IWW)
iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NGE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-09 01:06:172014-07-09 01:06:17July 9, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Catching up with Economist David Hale

Diary, Evening VIP, Newsletter

I have been relying on David Hale as my de facto global macro economist for decades and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in writing down David?s eye popping, out of consensus ideas fast enough, because he spits them out in such a rapid-fire succession.

Since David is an independent economic advisor to many of the world?s governments, largest banks and investment firms, I thought his views would be of riveting interest to you.

I met him this time at the posh Ozumo restaurant on San Francisco?s waterfront, near the Ferry Building. A favorite of Silicon Valley?s tech titans, I bumped into Marc Andreessen on the way in, nearly impaling myself on his pointed head.

I settled for a delicate vegetable tempura and eel sushi, while David, being from the Midwest, dug into an excellent Wagyu beefsteak. We washed it all down with liberal doses of Kirin beer and Takagi Shuzo designer sake.

David is an unmitigated bull on the economy, predicting that growth will leap from 2.0% in 2013 to 3% in 2014. Fading away of the fiscal drag created by a gridlocked congress will be the main reason.

Last year, we were hobbled by the maximum Federal income tax rising from 35% to 39.5% for income over $400,000. Capital gains rose from 15% to 20% as well. These combined to subtract 1% off US GDP growth in 2013. There are no such tax hikes planned for 2014.

The economy continues to power along, supported by three legs: housing, the energy boom and a reviving auto industry. Detroit is expected to pump out over 17 million vehicles this year, a figure only dreamed about six years ago, when it hit a rock bottom 9 million unit annual rate.

Management has a death grip on controlling costs, which is why they aren?t hiring, and explains the feeble employment statistics. This has enabled profit margins to surge to all time highs. Expect more of the same.

Europe should grow by 1% in 2014 after delivering a near zero rate this year. It will take years for them to return to any kind of normalized growth rate. That said, continental stock markets could well outperform those in the US in the near term.

David spends much of his time traveling, doing a major intercontinental trip almost every month. The coming calendar includes Japan, Australia, and Europe by yearend. To have his frequent flier points!

Two years ago, David was banging his drum about an imminent recovery in Japan (EWJ) and a collapse in the yen (FXY), (YCS). He was ignored by virtually all, except by me. As you may recall, I started laying on major short positions in the yen about then at David?s behest, which proved wildly successful.

The proof is in the constant testimonials that I regularly publish in my letter. I don?t make these up and they come in almost every day.

David believes that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is doing all the right things, so the recovery is real, sustainable and will play out over several more years. However, he would have been wise to spread out the VAT tax rise that took place in April, from 5% to 8%, over five years instead of bunching it all up in one.

He also should spend less time focusing on domestic nationalistic issues, which have the undesirable effect in that it focuses China on Japan?s regrettable past, not its bright future.

He is also quite an authority on emerging markets (EEM), which account for 40% of global GDP, and sees the recent collapse as presenting a once in a generation buying opportunity.

His favorite is Mexico (EWW), which will benefit hugely from the first new round of political and economic reforms in 20 years. The new oil and gas fracking technology has also arrived just in the nick of time, as its existing conventional fields are approaching exhaustion.

David thinks Greece (GREK) has more to run, although not at the heady pace of the past year. Nigeria (NGE) is another outstanding opportunity, where he recently visited. A privatization wave there could boost GDP growth from 7% to 10%.

To show you how wide David casts his net, he had lunch with none other than Syria?s Bashar al-Assad a decade ago. The country was then enacting a series of ground-breaking liberalizations by privatizing banks, and was viewed as the hot frontier market of the day. How things change!

This is why investors expect outsized returns from these countries. Less, and the risk is not worth it. They?re called ?frontier? for a reason.

David has in the past made some far out predictions that were real zingers. Population growth is grinding to a halt throughout Asia. It is already well below the replacement rate in Japan and South Korea, which will soon be joined by China.

This will eventually lead to labor shortages in Asia, and bring to an end the cheap labor regime, which has driven their economies for the past 100 years. The Chinese work force will shrink from five times ours to only three times.

Their cost advantage then goes out the window. The upshot for us is that perhaps half of the 6 million jobs that America lost to China over the last 20 years will come back. Many items can now be bought cheaper in Chicago than they can in Shanghai.

This explains why ?onshoring? is accelerating with a turbocharger (click here for ?The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating?).

China will still become far and away the world?s largest economy in our lifetimes. In 1700, Asia accounted for 58% of world GDP. Some 250 years of wars pulled that figure down to 15% by 1950. It is on track to recover to 50% by 2050.

To learn more about David Hale and the extensive list of services he offers; please visit the website of David Hale Global Economics at http://www.davidhaleweb.com.

EWW 7-3-14

GREK 7-3-14

NGE 7-3-14

David Hale

Sushi Restaurant

Bottles

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/David-Hale.jpg 353 305 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-09 01:03:332014-07-09 01:03:33Catching up with Economist David Hale
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 8, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 8, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(TIME TO TAKE ANOTHER RIDE WITH GENERAL MOTORS), (GM), (F), (TM),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(QUANTITATIVE EASING EXPLAINED TO A 12 YEAR OLD)

General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-08 01:07:462014-07-08 01:07:46July 8, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 7, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 7, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE TIME TO DUMP THE EURO IS HERE),
(FXE), (EUO), (UUP),

(TAKING PROFITS ON CATERPILLAR), (CAT)

?CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:23:112014-07-07 09:23:11July 7, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Taking Profits on Caterpillar

Diary, Newsletter

So, I?m sitting here in my Turkish redoubt, fighting off unusually aggressive flies and going over my charts. It?s further proof that no matter where in the world you travel, work follows you.

There is truly no rest for the wicked.

As a respite, I have the Best of the Guess Who playing on iTunes.

I noticed that the market priced our Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bull call spread at $2.50 at last night?s close. This is despite the options still having ten days left to the July 18 expiration. This means that the market is effectively pricing the inverse, the Caterpillar (CAT) July, 2014 $97.50-$100 in-the-money bear put spread at zero.

It?s not just Caterpillar that is doing this. I see this happening across the market, where downside protection is being thrown away for nothing. I see anomalies like this happening from time to time, but not very often. Think of it as complacency in the extreme, on adrenaline and with a turbocharger.

It always ends in tears, but who knows when? I priced the alert at $2.48 just to allow two cents for you to get an execution done. This should add 1.04% to your total return for 2014. If some high frequency dummy is willing to work for pennies, that?s fine with me. Nobody works for free.

If you don?t get done today, then re-enter the order on Monday. You will almost certainly get taken out after they remove the long weekend time decay.

Taking profits here does give you some black swan protection. We could have a flash crash at any time, if not in the main market, then certainly in single names. It also removes a 9/11 type risk. Sure, you say, this is all very improbable. But then, 9/11 was viewed as an impossibility on 9/10.

This has been a bang up trade for us in an otherwise detestable trading environment. We caught a nearly 10% rise in the shares in a market that was otherwise quiescent. I managed to do this with a half dozen other names as well.

It?s not that I have suddenly fallen out of love with the maker of heavy construction and mining equipment. I think (CAT) will continue to appreciate for the rest of 2014, possibly rising to $120-$130/share.

I have been following this company for 40 years and it is one of the most solid, best-managed companies out there. And I love their cool, yellow baseball caps.

(CAT) has finally crossed the wide desert and will continue from strength to strength (there goes those Middle East metaphors again!). And if China manages to engineer a recovery, then it will be really off to the races. So will the rest of the entire industrials sector for that matter.

The other problem with taking off a trade here is that there is nothing to replace it. Zero premiums mean there is not another risk-controlled position to replace the outgoing (CAT) position.

So don?t expect a lot of joy from me on the Trade Alert front until August.

I always take this as an invitation to say, ?Thank you very much, Mr. Market? and take a profit. It is also a sign of how far volatility has fallen, and by implication, option premiums.

(CAT) 7-2-14

Caterpillar TractorThank you, Mr. Caterpillar!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Caterpillar-Tractor.jpg 295 494 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-07 09:21:402014-07-07 09:21:40Taking Profits on Caterpillar
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 4, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 4, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(PRESIDENT HILLARY AND THE MARKETS),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-04 01:05:442014-07-04 01:05:44July 4, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Markets and President Hillary

Diary, Newsletter

Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today.

You don?t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, triggering a 10% market correction.

By the way, that was the last 10% correction we got. It has been straight up from there.

If you have any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the slam-dunk winner in 2016, take a look at the table below. According to a poll conducted by Quinnpiac University in New Haven, Connecticut, the former Secretary of State beats every Republic front-runner in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, often by huge margins.

Notice that the more conservative the candidate, the bigger the losing margin. I have always believed that the United States is a fundamentally moderate, middle of the road country.

Whenever either party leans towards extremes, they are sent to the woodshed, where they are punished severely by the voters. At the end of the day, most Americans just wish that the government would go away.

In another poll I saw Clinton is leading by 60%-40% with Republican women. Democrats are counting on many to cross party lines to vote for the first woman president, as they did for the first black one in 2008. Most other leading, non-partisan polls are reaching the same conclusion.

You can forget about Senator Ted Cruz from Texas because he was born in Canada, with a Canadian father. After carping about Obama being from Kenya for eight years, the last thing the Republicans will do is run another foreigner for president.

So what will President Hillary mean for the market? There?s no point in asking her. Officially, she is not even running yet. She is on the lecture circuit now earning $225,000 a pop. But I have been in touch with some of her recent and past staff people, and the answer seems to be not much.

With our Middle Eastern wars done, Al Qaida a distant memory, the economy going great guns, unemployment down, and the US energy independent, Clinton should inherit a country that is in pretty good shape.

With the economy reaccelerating back to a 3%-4% growth rate, and no new wars, the budget should be close to balancing. The dollar will be endemically strong.

We should be at the threshold of a Pax Americana. In these goldilocks conditions stock portfolios should rise by 10% a year, and 13% with dividends, and inflation will stay under control. Bonds will slowly grind down and interest rates up, but no by much. That works for me.

So, social issues will be the top legislative priority. You can expect to hear a lot about gun control. Assault rifles, especially military ones like the AR-15, and high capacity magazines will become history. You can also count on federal restrictions on the resale of firearms and closer tracking of convicted criminals.

Immigration will be another hot button item. Expect measures to permit the 10 million illegals currently in the country to gain access to citizenship, subject to strict conditions. This is the umpteenth time we have done this in my lifetime.

Clinton will also make an effort to roll back restrictions on voter?s rights now rampant in red states. Ten-hour lines to vote in black neighborhoods in Miami should become a thing of the past. The same will hold true for state restrictions on abortion, such as mandatory ultrasounds.

President Obama did the heavy lifting with financial regulation through Dodd-Frank and with health care in the Affordable Care Act. It will be up to Hillary to implement and enforce existing law, a far easier task. Who knows? The website might even be working by 2016?

The same will be true with tax reform. Obama delivered the big hit when the federal income tax rate jumped from 35% to 39.50%. Clinton will probably only nibble at the edges. It will be hands off for the middle class.

Target number one: the ?carried interest? treatment that assures that most hedge fund managers, like me, pay no more than a 15% annual rate. Capital gains could also see another 5% move.

But with the federal budget balancing, there shouldn?t be any need to raise taxes, unless you want to pay off the $17.5 trillion national debt faster. In any case, that will happen by 2030 under current law, and with improved growth outlook.

Big earners can expect to see their favorite deductions whittled back as well. Home mortgage interest deductibility will get capped at mortgage values of $250,000-$500,000. Limits will be placed on tax-free charitable donations. Company provided health insurance will become fully taxable as regular income, and will eventually get blended in with Obamacare.

The really big impact President Clinton will have on the future of the country will be with her Supreme Court appointments. It is likely that at least one conservative justice will retire or die before the end of her second term in 2024.

That will enable her to shift the 5-4 convective majority to a liberal one for the first time in 50 years. That assures a liberal bent in the Court?s decisions until 2064. After that, I will be long dead, or 112, so I won?t care what happens.

A rapid succession of legal challenges will follow that will eventually bring to an end of gerrymandering of congressional elections and anonymous corporate campaign donations. That will turn Texas, Arizona and several other states into blue ones. Gay rights will reach full equality, if it hasn?t already happened by then.

This has already happened in California. What was the outcome? Radicals on both the right and left were abandoned in droves, as there was no longer any mileage there. Everyone suddenly became a moderate and pragmatist. Gridlock ended, and the government returned to doing the people?s work. Ratings on cable TV talk shows fell.

Who will Hillary bring into her cabinet? I suggest former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, as the next Secretary of Health and Social Services. He is the only person who has every gotten government provided health care to work in the US, with his highly successful Massachusetts program.

I think it will take ten years to fully implement Obamacare and for it to become actuarially sound. In the end, Obamacare should cost the government nothing, and reduce the cost of health care for the rest of us. That?s how the Lloyds of London insurance exchange functions. A private equity guy should be able to deliver that, right?

So who will be Hillary?s first appointment to the Supreme Court? President Obama will be only 55 when his second term ends and is a constitutional law professor with a proven track record. The kids are already placed in local schools. The only thing he will be need is a new residence. What else is an ex president supposed to do?

The bigger question will be what to do about Bill? Will he be the first husband, the dude, or just another Mr. President.

Mr. and Mrs. President? The possibilities boggle the mind.

Poll

2012 Pres Election Results MapLooking for a Replay

 

Hillary ClintonAre You Ready for President Hillary?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Hillary-Clinton.jpg 386 307 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-04 01:04:172014-07-04 01:04:17The Markets and President Hillary
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 3, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 3, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 19.74% GAIN IN 2014),
(GOOGL), (TLT), (CAT), (IBM), (SPY), (VIX), (MSFT),
(POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)

Google Inc. (GOOGL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (RJA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-03 01:06:092014-07-03 01:06:09July 3, 2014
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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