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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 17, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 17, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DOGS OF THE DOW REVISTED)
(XME), (XLB), (DBB), (JJG), (MOO), (DBA), (GLD), (SLV),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH)

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME)
Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB)
PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB)
iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-17 01:05:052013-10-17 01:05:05October 17, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 16, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 16, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(ONSHORING TAKES ANOTHER GREAT LEAP FORWARD),
(TSLA), (UMX), (EWW),
(THE BULL MARKET IN MUSTANGS)

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Cppd IMI (UMX)
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-16 01:05:522013-10-16 01:05:52October 16, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Onshoring Takes another Great Leap Forward

Diary, Newsletter

Have you tried to hire a sewing machine operator lately?

I haven?t, but I have friends running major apparel companies who have (guess where I get all those tight fitting jeans?) Guess what? There aren?t any to be had.

Since, 1990, some 77% of the American textiles workforce has been lost, when China joined the world economy in force, and the offshoring trend took flight. Now that manufacturing is at last coming home, the race is on to find the workers to man it. Welcome to onshoring 2.0.

The development has been prompted by several seemingly unrelated events. There is an ongoing backlash to several disasters at garment makers in Bangladesh, the current low cost producer, which have killed thousands. Today?s young consumers want to look cool, but have a clean conscience as well. That doesn?t happen when your threads are sewn together by child slave laborers working for $1 a day.

Several firms are now tapping into the high-end market where the well off are willingly paying top dollar for a well-made ?Made in America? label. Look no further than 7 For All Mankind, which is offering just such a product at a discount to all recent buyers of the Tesla Model S-1 (TSLA), that other great all American manufacturer (click here for their site).

As a result, wages for cut and sew jobs are now among the fastest growing in the country, up 13.2% in real terms since 2007, versus a paltry 1.4% for industry as a whole.

Apparel industry recruiters are plastering high schools and church communities with flyers in their desperate quest for new workers. They advertise in languages with high proportions of blue-collar workers, like Spanish, Somali, and Hmong. New immigrants are particularly being targeted. And yes, they are resorting to the technology that originally hollowed out their industry, creating websites to suck in new applicants.

Chinese workers now earn? $3 an hour versus $9 plus benefits at the lowest paying US factories. But the extra cost is more than made up for by savings in transportation and logistics, and the rapid time to market. That is a crucial advantage in today?s fast paced, high turnover fashion world. Some companies are even returning to the hiring practices of the past, offering free training programs and paid internships.

By now, we have all become experts in offshoring, the practice whereby American companies relocate manufacturing jobs overseas to take advantage of low wages, missing unions, the lack of regulation, and the paucity of environmental controls. The strategy has been by far the largest source of new profits enjoyed by big companies for the past two decades. It has also been blamed for losses of US jobs, with some estimates reaching as high as 25 million.

When offshoring first started 50 years ago, it was a total no brainer.? Wages were sometimes 95% cheaper than those at home. The cost savings were so great that you could amortize your total capital costs in as little as two years. So American electronics makers began filing overseas to Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines. After the US normalized relations with China in 1978, the action moved there and found that labor was even cheaper.

Then, a funny thing happened. After 30 years of falling real American wages and soaring Chinese wages, offshoring isn?t such a great deal anymore. The average Chinese laborer earned $100 a year in 1977. Today, it is $3,500, and $24,000 for trained technicians, with total compensation rising 20% a year. At this rate, US and Chinese wages will reach parity in about 10 years.

But wages won?t have to reach parity for onshoring to accelerate in a meaningful way. Investing in China is still not without risks. Managing a global supply chain is no piece of cake on a good day. Asian countries still lack much of the infrastructure that we take for granted here. Natural disasters like earthquakes, fires, and tidal waves can have a hugely disruptive impact on a manufacturing system that is in effect a highly tuned, incredibly complex watch.

There are also far larger political risks keeping a large chunk of our manufacturing base in the Middle Kingdom than most Americans realize. With the US fleet and the Chinese military playing an endless game of chicken off the coast, we are one mid air collision away from a major diplomatic incident. Protectionism constantly threatens to boil over in the US, whether it is over the dumping of chicken feet, tires, or the latest, solar cells.

This is what the visit to the Foxcon factory by Apple?s CEO, Tim Cook, was all about. Be nice to the workers there, let them work only 8 hours a day instead of 16, let them unionize, and guess what? Work will come back to the US all the faster. The Chinese press was ripe with speculation that Apple induced reforms might spread to the rest of the country like wildfire.

General Motors (GM) CEO, Dan Akerson, told me his company was reconsidering its global production strategy in the wake of the Thai floods. Which car company was most impacted by the Japanese tsunami? General Motors, which obtained a large portion of its transmissions there.

The impact of a real onshoring move on the US economy would be huge. Some economists estimate that as many as 10%-30% of the jobs lost to offshoring could return. At the high end, this could amount to 8 million jobs. That would cut our unemployment rate down by half, at least. It would add $20-60 billion in GDP per year, or up to 0.4% in economic growth per year. It would also lead to a much stronger dollar, rising stocks, and lower bond prices. Is this what the stock market is trying to tell us, rising by 20% this year?

Who would be the biggest beneficiaries of an onshoring trend? Si! Ole! Mexico (UMX) (EWW), which took the biggest hit when China started soaking up all the low waged jobs in the world. After that, the industrial Midwest has to figure pretty large, especially gutted Michigan. With real estate prices there below their 1992 lows, if there is a market at all, you know that doing business there costs a fraction of what it did 20 years ago.

Man Fixing MachineSo How Does This Thing Work?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bull Market in Mustangs

Diary, Newsletter

Sitting here in the Silver State of Nevada, high in the Sierras, I feel obliged to comment on a bull market of a different sort.

The Western US has found a new wrinkle in the housing collapse, where homeowners are desperately struggling to cut living costs to meet the next doubling of their adjustable rate mortgage payments on their underwater houses.

Raising horses can cost more than children, so Nevadans are turning them loose to join herds of wild mustangs, to dodge the $30,000/year it costs to board and care for these voracious animals. Local populations are exploding, eating local ranchers out of house and home, who depend on public grazing lands to feed commercial livestock.

Recently, the Bureau of Land Management held hearings on where to place 25,000 excess animals. Mustangs are the feral descendants of horses which escaped the Spanish conquistadores, and there are now thought to be 30,000 running wild, down from a 19th century peak of 2 million. The BLM has another 30,000 in pens, and is making 10,000/year available for adoption at $125/each.

The problem is that many adopt ?pets? who then flip them to Canadian slaughterhouses, which cater to the odd French taste for horseflesh. To see how this works, watch Clark Gable, Marilyn Monroe, and James Dean?s last film, The Misfits.

Madeleine Pickens, the wife of famed oil trader T. Boone Pickens, has offered to take the BLM?s entire herd and put them out to pasture at their exclusive ranch in Northwestern Nevada. They are now offering luxury dude ranch weekends where guests can ride out and watch herds of these wild animals, spending nights in a souped up Indian teepee (click here for her site Mustang Monument).

I have frequently run into majestic and beautiful mustang herds over the years while camping in the remote desert (no, I don?t go to Burning Man). Reminding me that there is still some ?wild? in the ?West?, I will miss them when they are gone.

Horses-Mustangs

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 15, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 15, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(YALE?S ROBERT SHILLER BAGS NOBEL ECONOMICS PRIZE),
(THE TRUE COST OF OIL),
(USO), (XOM)

United States Oil (USO)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Yale?s Robert Shiller Bags Nobel Economic Prize

Diary, Evening VIP, Newsletter

It isn?t often when a friend of mine wins a Nobel Prize. But that?s what happened this weekend when the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the prestigious award to Yale University?s Robert Shiller. Shiller, along with Eugene Fama, and Lars Peter Hanson of the University of Chicago will share the $1.23 million cash award for their work on market pricing of assets.

Ironically, the New Haven based Shiller takes an approach that is completely the opposite of the theories propounded by his Chicago colleagues. Shiller believes that human psychology can lead to huge mispricings of assets, while Fama and Hanson argue that markets are much more efficient than that. Having spent 45 years in the financial markets myself, I think that Shiller is hands down correct.

I met with Shiller last year to get his take on the long term future of our economy. He is the kind of imp like, peripatetic college professor you might expect to find in a Disney movie. Highly animated and jumping from one radical idea to the next, it is hard to keep up with his stream of consciousness torrent of economic innovations.

After a two-hour barrage, I was so intellectually exhausted that all I could do when I returned home was to plop down on the sofa with a Jack on the rocks and watch Fox News.

You know Robert Shiller as the creator of the Standard & Poors-Case Shiller Real Estate Index, which tracks 20 major residential housing markets around the US. His data was originally the domain of a handful of real estate brokers with a theoretical bent, or securitizing investment bankers. But when the real estate collapse began to accelerate in 2007, it suddenly became the data point du jour for every property investor, business news network, and hedge fund manager.

Shiller thinks that financial markets are so emotional that they are beyond rational analysis. The systemic vulnerability of financial markets was a major cause of the 2008 crash and is still not well understood. He argues that people should have a 100-year time horizon when making investments, because that?s how long today?s children will live. Does anyone have the trading call for the Spring of 2113? (No typo!)

He says that teaching finance today is about as popular as being the university Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) instructor during the Vietnam War. People are angry at bankers, as the Occupy Wall Street crowd has so amply shown, which Shiller sees as our own ?Arab Spring?. Since 1990, the top 1% of the wealthy have seen their net worth soar by 60%, while it has fallen for the other 99%.

When Occupiers discovered that their movement could cause governments to fall, it rapidly spilled beyond its Madrid, Spain origins. But the financial industry is not all bad. Witness the miracle in emerging markets, which has been made possible through new capital provided by western investment bankers.

Robert titillated me with some highly creative innovations, which we may see adopted in coming years. I?ll give you the highlights.

*Options on individual real estate markets, now six years old, will go mainstream and finally become liquid as individuals seek to protect their home equity during economic downturns. This will become a major area of new profits for Wall Street.

*?Continuous mortgages? should be created whereby the debt is never paid off, but is assumed from one owner to the next in exchange for a higher interest rate. If you package many of these together and securitize them, it would create far more efficient loan markets for consumers.

*The government already issues plenty of bonds, and next should sell equity in itself in one-trillionth increments. That puts the value of the government?s share price today at about $16.50. If the economy grows, the share price should go up, to the benefit of investors.

*Tax rates for the wealthy should rise with inequality. The more wealth that is concentrated with the 1%, the higher the maximum tax rate should go. Remember, the maximum rate was 90% at the time of the Roosevelt administration during the Great Depression, nearly triple today?s 39.5% rate.

*The actual impact of high frequency traders, who he refers to as ?millisecond traders?, is vastly exaggerated.

*Although the new ?crowd funding? bill has been described as the ?Boiler Room Full Employment Act?, it will provide a valuable source of venture capital for micro startups. Those earning only $40,000 a year are limited to an $800 bet, with the maximum legal investment set at $10,000.

*Some 14% of the total economic activity of the US involves security. Just having people watching people is an enormous waste of resources.

*?For profit? nonprofits, called benefit corporations, should proliferate to advance specific social goals. These should work well as they pay little in wages and enjoy community support. They are already legal in eight states.

The Nobel Prize was created by Sweden?s Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite. It is believed he did so to atone for the millions who died from the military use of his product. Nobel?s original intention was to assist the mining industry. Prizes for physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace were first awarded in 1901. The prize for economics was added in 1968.

The prize has long been shrouded in controversy. Some were awarded to scientists whose theories were later disproven. Others who richly deserved prizes never got them, like Jonas Salk, the discoverer of the Salk vaccine, which wiped out polio. The Academy once considered revoking one Nobel awarded to the brilliant chemist, Fritz Haber, because he went on to invent mustard gas for the German Army in WWI. Many peace and literature prizes in recent years have had a decidedly anti-American bent to them.

Of the 835 prizes awarded to date, about 10% were to individuals at California based universities, with UC Berkeley far and away taking the lead. The Swedish Royal family was an early investor in my hedge fund. So, in 2001, the 100th anniversary of the prize, the crown princes of Sweden invited me to attend a lunch honoring the California winners, 17 of whom were living at the time. As a financial guy, I was assigned to sit next to Milton Friedman who won his economics prize in 1976. The conversation was fascinating.

If you would like to attend one of Shiller?s economics classes for free and expose yourself to more out of the box economic thinking, you can do so through regular offerings of his online courses. To sign up for Open Yale University, which Time Magazine lists as one of the top educational websites, please click the following link: http://oyc.yale.edu.

S&P-Case Shiller

Robert Shiller

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Robert-Shiller.jpg 309 531 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-15 01:04:412013-10-15 01:04:41Yale?s Robert Shiller Bags Nobel Economic Prize
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The True Cost of Oil

Diary, Newsletter

My annual electric bill here in sunny San Francisco comes to $4,800 a year. Since the California power authorities have set a goal of 33% alternative energy sources by 2020, PG&E (PGE) has the most aggressive green energy program in the country (click here for ?The Solar Boom in California?. More expensive solar, wind, geothermal, and biodiesel power sources mean that my electric bill may rise by $300 a year to about $5,100.

Now let?s look at my gasoline bill. Driving 15,000 miles a year, my old Toyota Highlander Hybrid used 600 gallons a year, which at $4/gallon for gas cost me $2,400/year. So my annual combined electric power/gasoline bill was $7,500.

My new Tesla Model S-1 (TSLA) will cost me $180/year in battery charges to cover the same distance. By switching to the Tesla, my total energy cost plunges to $4,980 a year, down 34%. That?s a big saving. Now you know why alternative energy is so popular in the Golden State.

There is an additional sweetener, which I?m not even counting. I also spent $1,000/year on maintenance on my old car, including tune-ups and oil changes. The Tesla will cost me nothing, as there are no oil changes or tune ups, and my engine drops from using 1,000 overcooked parts to just eleven. We?re basically talking tire rotations only for the first 100,000 miles.

There is a further enormous pay off down the road. We are currently spending $100 billion a year in cash up front fighting our wars in the Middle East, or $273 million a day! Add to that another $200 billion in back end costs, including wear and tear on capital equipment, and lifetime medical care for 5 million veterans, some of whom are severely torn up.

We import 7.5 million barrels of oil each day, or 2.7 billion barrels a year, worth $270 billion at $100/barrel (click here for the US Energy Information Agency stats). Some 2 million b/d, or 730 million barrels/year worth $60 billion comes from the Middle East. That means we are paying a de facto tax which amounts to $136/barrel, taking the true price for Saudi crude up to a staggering $219/barrel!

We are literally spending $100 billion a year so we can buy $60 billion worth of oil, and that?s not counting the lives lost. Even worse, 80% of total Persian Gulf exports now go to Asia, so we are now spending this money to assure China?s supplies, not ours. Only a government could come up with such an idiotic plan.

There is another factor to count in. Anyone in the oil industry will tell you that, of the current $100 price for crude, $30 is a risk premium driven by fears of instability in the Middle East. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, every available tanker, and thousands of rail cars are all chocked full with unwanted oil. This is why prices remain high.

The International Energy Agency says the world is now using 90 million b/d, or 32 billion barrels a year worth $3.2 trillion. This means that the risk premium is costing global consumers $960 billion/year. If we abandon that oil source, the risk premium should fall substantially, or disappear completely. What instability there becomes China?s headache, not ours.

If enough of the country converts to alternatives and adopts major conservation measures, then we can quit importing oil from that violent part of the world.? No more sending our president to bow and shake hands with King Abdullah. Oil prices would fall, our military budget would drop, the federal budget deficit would shrink, and our taxes would likely get cut.

One Tesla shrinks demand for 750 gallons of gasoline, or 1,500 gallons of oil per year. That means that we need?20.4 million?electric vehicles on the road to eliminate the need for the 2 million b/d we are importing from the Middle East. The Department of Energy has provided a $1.6 billion loan to build a Nissan Leaf plant in Smyrna, Tennessee.

Add that to the?million Chevy Volts, Tesla S-1?s, Mitsubishi iMiEV?s, and other electric cars hitting the market in the next few years. Also taking a bite out of our oil consumption are the 2 million hybrids now on the road to be joined by a third million in the next two years. That goal is not so far off.

Yes, these are simplistic, back of the envelope calculations that don?t take into account other national security considerations, or our presence on the global stage. But these numbers show that even a modest conversion to alternatives can have an outsized impact on the bigger picture.

By the way, please don?t tell Exxon Mobil (XOM) or BP (BP) I told you this. They get 80% of their earnings from importing oil to the US. I don?t want to get a knock on the door in the middle of the night.

4 Week Avg US Crude Oil Imports

ObamaSaudi-1Is This Worth It?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 14, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 14, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK),
(A SAD FAREWELL TO HELEN THOMAS)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

San Francisco

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Join the ?Invest Like a Monster? San Francisco Trading Conference

Diary, Newsletter

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape that will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance.

Tickets are available for a bargain $399. If you buy the premium $499 package you will be invited to the Friday 6:00 pm VIP cocktail reception, where you will meet luminaries from the trading world, such as tradeMONSTRS?s Jon and Pete Najarian, Guy Adami, Jeff Mackey, and of course, myself, John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All in all, it is great value for money, and I?ll personally throw in a ride on the City by the Bay?s storied cable cars for free.

Jon Najarian is the founder of optionMonster, which offers clients a series of custom crafted computer algorithms that give a crucial edge when trading the market. Called Heat Seeker ?, it monitors no less than 180,000 trades a second to give an early warning of large trades that are about to hit the stock, options, and futures markets.

To give you an idea of how much data this is, think of downloading the entire contents of the Library of Congress, about 20 terabytes of data, every 30 minutes. His firm maintains a 10 gigabyte per second conduit that transfers data at 6,000 times the speed of a T-1 line, the fastest such pipe in the civilian world. Jon?s team then distills this ocean of data on his website into the top movers of the day. ?As with the NFL,? says Jon, ?you can?t defend against speed.?

The system catches big hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds shifting large positions, giving subscribers a peak at the bullish or bearish tilt of the market. It also offers accurate predictions of imminent moves in single stock and index volatility.

Jon started his career as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears, and I can personally attest that he still has a handshake that?s like a steel vice grip. Maybe it was his brute strength that enabled him to work as a pit trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for 22 years, where he was known by his floor call letters of ?DRJ.? He formed Mercury Trading in 1989 and then sold it to the mega hedge fund, Citadel, in 2004.

Jon developed his patented algorithms for Heat Seeker? with his brother Pete, another NFL player (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings), who like Jon, is a regular face in the financial media.

In order to register for the conference, please click here. There you will find the conference agenda, bios of the speakers, and a picture of my own ugly mug. I look forward to seeing you there.

Cling! Cling!

San Francisco

Trademonster

Jon MajarianJon Najarian

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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