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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 10, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 10, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BEST ETF?S OF 2013),
Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT)
First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN)
Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX)
The PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)
The First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index Fund (FAN)
The Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH)
The Global X Social Media Index ETF (SOCL)
The PowerShares Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome Portfolio (PBE)
The PowerShares Gold Dragon China Portfolio (PGJ)
(A NOTE ON THE TESLA FIRE), (TSLA)

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-10 08:57:442013-10-10 08:57:44October 10, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Note on the Tesla Fire

Diary, Newsletter

You can? keep a good stock down. That?s the obvious message on Tesla (TLSA) shares in the wake of the fire that consumed one of its $80,000 Model?s S-1?s on a Washington state road after it ran over the rear bumper of the truck it was following. The video was quickly plastered all over YouTube (click here to view).

This was the first S-1 to catch fire since the production run started two years ago. That compares to the roughly 400 gasoline powered vehicles that catch fire on US roads nearly every day. If you really want to see how volatile gasoline is, try lighting a campfire with it some day. Even tossing lit matches in from a great distance, as I once did, you?ll be lucky to have your eyebrows left. I didn?t.

Tesla followed up quickly with an analysis and a letter with a complete explanation sent to all other S-1 drivers signed by none other than CEO Elon Musk. I have included the entire text below in italics.

What happened to the hapless driver of the burning S-1? He is eagerly awaiting delivery of another S-1 from the Fremont, California factory. It seems, he loves the car, and can?t wait to get back into one.

?Earlier this week, a Model?S traveling at highway speed struck a large metal object, causing significant damage to the vehicle. A curved section that fell off a semi-trailer was recovered from the roadway near where the accident occurred and, according to the road crew that was on the scene, appears to be the culprit. The geometry of the object caused a powerful lever action as it went under the car, punching upward and impaling the Model?S with a peak force on the order of 25 tons. Only a force of this magnitude would be strong enough to punch a 3 inch diameter hole through the quarter inch armor plate protecting the base of the vehicle.

The Model?S owner was nonetheless able to exit the highway as instructed by the onboard alert system, bring the car to a stop and depart the vehicle without injury. A fire caused by the impact began in the front battery module ? the battery pack has a total of 16 modules ? but was contained to the front section of the car by internal firewalls within the pack. Vents built into the battery pack directed the flames down towards the road and away from the vehicle.

When the fire department arrived, they observed standard procedure, which was to gain access to the source of the fire by puncturing holes in the top of the battery's protective metal plate and applying water. For the Model?S lithium-ion battery, it was correct to apply water (vs. dry chemical extinguisher), but not to puncture the metal firewall, as the newly created holes allowed the flames to then vent upwards into the front trunk section of the Model?S. Nonetheless, a combination of water followed by dry chemical extinguisher quickly brought the fire to an end.

It is important to note that the fire in the battery was contained to a small section near the front by the internal firewalls built into the pack structure. At no point did fire enter the passenger compartment.

Had a conventional gasoline car encountered the same object on the highway, the result could have been far worse. A typical gasoline car only has a thin metal sheet protecting the underbody, leaving it vulnerable to destruction of the fuel supply lines or fuel tank, which causes a pool of gasoline to form and often burn the entire car to the ground. In contrast, the combustion energy of our battery pack is only about 10% of the energy contained in a gasoline tank and is divided into 16 modules with firewalls in between. As a consequence, the effective combustion potential is only about 1% that of the fuel in a comparable gasoline sedan.

The nationwide driving statistics make this very clear: there are 150,000 car fires per year according to the National Fire Protection Association, and Americans drive about 3 trillion miles per year according to the Department of Transportation. That equates to 1 vehicle fire for every 20 million miles driven, compared to 1 fire in over 100 million miles for Tesla. This means you are 5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla!

For consumers concerned about fire risk, there should be absolutely zero doubt that it is safer to power a car with a battery than a large tank of highly flammable liquid.?

?

Elon Musk
CEO,
Tesla Motors

 

TSLA 10-9-13

JT with TeslaS-1 Driver, Eyebrows Intact

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/JT-with-Tesla-e1427723768460.jpg 227 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-10 08:52:372013-10-10 08:52:37A Note on the Tesla Fire
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 9, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 9, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(CUTTING BACK MY RISK),
(SPY), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (AAPL), (NFLX), (HLF), (VIX),
(WHAT?S GOING ON WITH THE VOLATILITY INDEX?),
(VIX), (VXX)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-09 01:05:302013-10-09 01:05:30October 9, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What?s Going on With the VIX?

Diary, Newsletter

After crawling off the mat at the 12% level, and rising all the way back up to 21%, traders are wondering if the Volatility Index (VIX) is finally coming back to life. Or is this just another dead cat bounce?

It wasn?t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options, which would automatically send the (VIX) soaring. Except when they don?t.

I spoke to over a dozen market participants yesterday attempting to root out the cause of this seeming anomaly. All I got was shrugs or idle speculation. A (VXX) at this level, the ETF for the (VIX) assumes that the complacency now endemic in the market will continue for several more months. It is betting that the S&P 500 will continue moving sideways or up with no pullbacks greater that 5%. Oh, really?

It is also discounting a rise in the (SPX) to 1,750, based on a multiple expansion from 16 to 17, while corporate earnings are falling. This will see confirmation when Q3, 2013 earnings start to hit in October. Oh, really, again?

I finally got through to some friends in the Chicago pits who explained what was going on. A sizeable portion of the trading community believes that we will see a rise in volatility someday, but not in the near future. So they have been buying October call options in the (VIX). To pay for these and hedge out their risk, they have been selling short calls in the front months of December and March at much higher implied volatilities.

Since the (VXX) focuses on only the front two months of the options calendar, it has taken an inordinate brunt of the selling. This is why the (VXX) has continued a rapid decent even on days when the (VIX) was stable and the Dow was down. Needless to say, it has been a huge moneymaker for the early participants.

How does this end? At some point we do get a serious sell off in the stock market, and the (VIX) rockets back up to 30%, or higher. That means that anyone who initiates this position now will get slaughtered. But the long-term players will simply write those losses off against the substantial short dated premium they have taken in until then.

As long as this dynamic is in place, there really is no limit to how far the (VXX) can fall. As traders roll from one expiring month to the next, they will continue to hammer volatility.

VXX 10-8-13

VIX 10-8-13

Man-Pogo Stick

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Man-Pogo-Stick.jpg 430 288 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-09 01:03:422013-10-09 01:03:42What?s Going on With the VIX?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 8, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 8, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE NEW WAR ON HEDGE FUND MANAGERS),
(TEA WITH SECRETARY OF STATE GEORGE SHULTZ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-08 08:57:192013-10-08 08:57:19October 8, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The New War on Hedge Fund Managers

Diary, Newsletter

Yang Yanming was slowly led from his cell by two burly uniformed guards in Beijing?s central prison to a waiting van in the courtyard, his hands cuffed behind him and his head bowed. Once in the vehicle, he was strapped to a gurney, hooked up to an IV, and given a highly concentrated injection of sodium pentobarbitol.

Minutes later, a technician checked his pulse, and pronounced him dead. He then pulled out a scalpel, made a long vertical incision down Yang?s abdomen, and deftly harvested his organs. Placed in ice chests, they were rapidly sold off on China?s booming organ market.

The unfortunate Yang was a former stock trader convicted of embezzling $9.52 million from Galaxy Securities during 1997 to 2003. Once arrested, his trial, conviction, and execution were carried out in rapid-fire succession in a matter of months. No hanging around death row for decades here, as is common practice in the US. Yanming never revealed where the money went, according to the Beijing Evenings News, possibly because he never committed the crime. We, and Yang?s family, will never know.

The move was part of a broader effort by regulators in Beijing to crack down on rampant corruption in the securities industry. Still, the more people they execute in the Middle Kingdom, about 10,000 this year, the more they remain the same. Great for the human organ business, but not so good for white-collar crime prevention.

During the last three decades, a series of politically inspired ?get tough on crime? campaigns in the US, started by Ronald Reagan, has produced one of the biggest lock ups is human history. Inmates held by federal and state penal systems have soared from 500,000 to 3 million, and the numbers are growing by 200,000 a year. The American prison system has grown so large that it rivals the old ?Archipelago? in the Soviet Union during the 1930?s. The old urban legend about the government building a vast secret complex of concentration camps is true.

One out of 100 Americans is behind bars, and one out of 35 is either in jail, or on probation. The cull has been particularly severe among ethnic minorities, with one out of three African Americans either in prison, on probation, or related to someone who is.

There has been a vast expansion in America of the definition of criminality. For example, tax evasion only became an imprisonable offence in 1984. A Supreme Court ruling extended the meaning of ?cocaine? to include crack swooped up tens of thousands. Widening the scope of old laws lowering the bar for conviction has also occurred in firearms ownership, hate crimes, the environment, pornography, the collection of Indian artifacts on federal land, and of course securities offenses. The closure of dozens of state hospitals around the country has also dumped large numbers of the mentally ill into the penal system, making prisons the new de facto mental hospitals.

There has also been a huge bull market in retribution that has contributed to the upsurge. Thanks to three strikes laws, an offender who stole a 95-cent cassette tape from a Seven Eleven in California got 30 years. The judge said his hands were tied. Teenaged children in Florida, not old enough to drive, are getting life sentences. Bernie Ebbers and Ken Lay might have gotten away scott free in the seventies, or at worst, caught five year sentences. Today 25 to life is standard for such offenses, an effective life sentence for a CEO or senior hedge fund manager. Bernie Madoff?s 150-year sentence seems pointless. It is not going to get people their money back.

Law enforcement experts, social workers, and even mathematicians all agree that this ?get tough? stance is having absolutely no impact on crime prevention. For a start, no one commits a crime with the intention, or even the remote expectation of getting caught. You can raise sentences to 1,000 years and it will still make no difference.

Many, like Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, who ran the Bear Stearns hedge funds, are not even aware that their activities might be perceived as illegal. The war on drugs has been a complete failure, with prices lower, narcotics more available, and more kids addicted than 30 years ago, despite DEA budgets running in the tens of billions.

With state and federal prosecutors now on the warpath against hedge fund managers, bankers, and aggressive deal makers in real estate, the realm of the illegal is about to undergo yet another? enormous expansion. But try telling that to a politician running for office in a borderline district. Crooks are not allowed to vote.

Demographics are the true origin of crime. The number of young males in the population peaked in the early seventies and has been on a downtrend ever since, along with crime rates. Crime is even immune to the economic cycle. You may not have noticed that crime went down last year, even though we were facing the worst economic and employment crisis in eight decades.

Some attribute the fall off in male population to the legalization of abortion by Roe v. Wade in 1973, which led to an immediate drop in newborns tossed into dumpsters, raised by the state, and living a life of crime. Malcolm Gladwell even has a pet theory that falling crime rates are due to the removal of lead from gasoline, also in 1973, which caused lead poisoning, mental illness, and a propensity for violence.

The big problem with the war on crime is that, while generating no tangible results, it is massively expensive.? Some $80 billion will be spent incarcerating America?s state and federal prisoners this year, a figure that is bleeding cash starved state and municipal governments white.? California spends more on prisons than on teachers. Governor Jerry Brown has tried to cut corners by packing prisons to 300% of their legal capacity, offloading inmates to unwilling counties, and by offering health care that a Federal judge has ruled ?cruel and unusual punishment.? Most prison gyms and libraries have been converted to dorms packed with three bed bunks end to end. In a desperate measure, the state is freed 20,000 nonviolent prisoners because it can?t afford to house or feed them.

If we adopted Chinese style crime and punishment, we?d save the $65,000 a year it costs to lock up miscreants like Bernie Madoff in high security facilities. Just execute the sons of bitches. The US could recover leadership in the human organ business, and we could convert unused prisons into schools, killing three birds with one stone.

There is another alternative to locking people up and throwing away the key. How about reforming the legal system? Take punishment out of the hands of politicians and bring them more in line with the offense. Perhaps 20% of the Golden State?s 270,000 inmates are serving long terms for possessing small baggies of pot that would earn them at worst a traffic ticket in most other Western countries, or nothing at all.

It might also be worth investing in some education for inmates to reduce the appalling rate of recidivism from the current 70%. Prisons officials now give released inmates $25, dump them on a street corner in a crummy neighborhood, and tell them ?See you when you come back.? Shorter prison sentences and longer probation might be another economical answer.

This would all require some brave political leadership around an unpopular issue. Don?t hold your breath. In the meantime, check out the article ?Why a Kidney (Street Value: $5000) Sells for $85,000?. The next kidney up for sale may be yours.

U.S. Incarceration Rate

Chinese Prioson Guards

Incarceration Rates in OECD Countries

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Chinese-Prioson-Guards.jpg 323 432 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-08 08:56:422013-10-08 08:56:42The New War on Hedge Fund Managers
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 7, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 7, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SAY GOODBYE TO THE WASHINGTON DISCOUNT),
(XLY), (UCC), (XLI), (UXI), (XLK), (ROM), (XLV), (RXL),
(THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER?S NUCLEAR POWER PLANT)

Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
ProShares Ultra Industrials (UXI)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)
ProShares Ultra Health Care (RXL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-07 01:06:112013-10-07 01:06:11October 7, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

San Francisco

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg 238 359 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-07 01:05:402013-10-07 01:05:40November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

This is Not Your Father?s Nuclear Power Plant

Diary, Newsletter

On my recent trip to Oregon I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing, the brave new world of ?new? nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis.

This is definitely not your father?s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design certification with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a mini light water reactor with a passive cooling system rated at 45 megawatts. The idea is to site a dozen of these together, which in aggregate can generate 540 Megawatts, little more than half the size of the old 1 gigawatt monsters.

Running a dozen small reactors instead of one big one makes for vastly easier operation and maintenance, as individual units can be brought on and offline as needed. Small size also eliminates the need for gargantuan, expensive containment structures. This power source runs at night, when solar and wind plants are offline. Modular design makes mass production of these units economical.

Once certification, approval, permitting, and construction are complete, we can expect to see the NuScale plants running by 2018. After all, if something similar works in nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers, why not in industrial zones on the outskirts of town? For more on NuScale?s innovative efforts visit their website at the following link: ?http://www.nuscalepower.com/ .

NuScale System Design

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NuScale-System-Design.jpg 475 394 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-07 01:03:492013-10-07 01:03:49This is Not Your Father?s Nuclear Power Plant
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Diary

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a three year return of 101.11%, a new all time high. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 26%.

This has been the largest profit since the ground-breaking trade mentoring service was launched 34 months ago. The year to date profit is an eye popping 46.06%. This pegs the average annualized return at 35.7%, putting me at the apex of all hedge fund managers.

These numbers come off the back of a blistering September month-to-date of up +8.48%. Carving out the closed 2013 trades alone, 43 out of 53 have made money, a success rate of 81%. In addition, we are carrying six open trades, which are profitable. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.

This performance was only made possible by correctly calling the near term direction of stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, energy, precious metals and the agricultural products. This may sound easy, until you try it. Some retirement!

It seems that I was among the 1% of market strategists who correctly predicted that the Federal Reserve would not taper its quantitative easing program at its latest meeting. That enabled me to go into the decision with a substantial ?RISK ON? portfolio. I?m sorry, but the numbers were just not there for a data driven Fed to see.

My big win this month has been my major short position in the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS). The Japan win on hosting the 2020 Olympics gave the beleaguered Japanese currency some extra downside momentum. Then yen has already collapsed in the crosses, and a further major breakdown against the dollar is imminent.

We really coined it on a short position in the Euro (FXE), coming out near the bottom. A new position in copper producer, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), become immediately profitable, jumping some 5% after the Trade Alert went out. I jumped at the $60 selloff in Apple shares in the wake of their latest product launch, instantly, moving into the green with this holding as well. The same is true for my long in the Australian dollar (FXA).

Only my oil short left me with a hickey, which I stopped out of, thanks to the Syria gas attack. Still, if I had held it for only two more hours it would have made money when the Russian peace initiative for Syria was announced. Risk control is paramount if you want to swing for the fences. Welcome to show business.

The coming autumn promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. On the menu are the taper, a new Fed governor, a debt ceiling crisis, a possible war with Syria, and the death of the bull market in bonds. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy.

Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars, order Global Trading Dispatch PRO adds Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service.

To subscribe, please go to my website store, click on the orange buttons to get more information.

2013 TA Performance

TA Performance-Inception2

INDU 9-24-13

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-2Some Retirement!

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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